Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Estimating the Prevalence of Long-Term Disability for an Aging Society

Publication Date

This study was designed to provide comprehensive information about future long-term care needs in the U.S. Using data from the U.S. Decennial Census of Population and Housing, National Long-Term Care Survey and National Nursing Home Survey, the study developed detailed projections of the need for long-term care among the elderly in the years 2000, 2020 and 2040. Estimates of long-term care needs have traditionally relied on static models which assume that mortality and morbidity rates will remain constant over the projection period. This study employs a dynamic projection model. Three different sets of projections were estimated based on varying assumptions about changes in life expectancy and rates of impairment. [22 PDF pages] [Technical Documentation 54 PDF pages]

Topics
Disability
Populations
People with Disabilities