CHAPTER IV

FAMILY STABILITY BENCHMARKS--

REFORMING THE STATE'S WELFARE SYSTEM

Introduction

In the 1990s, Oregon succeeded in reducing dependency on the Aid to Families with Dependence Children program (AFDC). Under Oregon's JOBS Plus pilot program -- begun under a welfare reform waiver from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, welfare recipients are placed in six-month, on-the-job training positions in local businesses. Participants gain work experience, and many have found unsubsidized job opportunities after completing their training. As a result of this and other initiatives, and through the boost from an improving economy, the state dramatically reduced overall AFDC caseloads.

RECENT AFDC CASELOAD REDUCTIONS AND TARGET LEVELS

Year

Total Caseload

1994

40,000

1996

30,000

Target 1998

20,000

To build on the lessons the state was learning through these pilot programs, the Oregon Legislature adopted a proposal in 1993 mandating the development of a new welfare reform plan. Through that study requirement, the legislature directed the Oregon Progress Board and the Workforce Quality Council to craft a plan to replace the current public assistance system with a family support and workforce development system.(1)

To carry out the legislative mandate, a work group was formed in February 1994. The twelve-member group, organized by the Oregon Progress Board and the Workforce Quality Council, represented a broad spectrum of interests, including private citizens, clients, legal aid, education, human services, and workforce development.(2) The Legislature set nine objectives to guide the shaping of a new proposal:

By February 1995, the Welfare Reform Work Group developed an 11 step action plan to revamp the welfare system. These included:(3)

  1. Redesigning funding formulas to reward success. Revamping federal public assistance funding formulas would create new incentives for expanding investments in services that promote self-sufficiency and would dampen future caseloads. The proposal would allow some savings resulting from caseload reductions to be reinvested into efforts that would yield further caseload reductions in the future.
  2. Requiring greater JOBS(4) participation. Funding for support payments and transitional programs, such as child care, would be expanded. Resources would also be used to remove or reduce exemptions to increase participation rates in the JOBS program.
  3. Strengthening sanctions to encourage JOBS participation. A progressive system of sanctions was proposed, reducing initial sanctions for failing to participate, but increasing them incrementally up to and including closure of the grant.
  4. Increasing efforts to establish paternity for births to unwed mothers. Hospitals, the state administrative agency, and the Oregon Health Plan would all expand their efforts toward increasing the rate of paternity determinations.
  5. Expanding child support enforcement and improving sanctions for noncustodial parents who fail to provide child support.
  6. Preparing for expansion of JOBS Plus. Oregon's JOBS and JOBS Plus strategies were to be expanded.
  7. Creating incentives for marriage and savings and freeing time for case management. Proposed changes included trimming and simplifying AFDC eligibility requirements.
  8. Building high performance public assistance offices and shifting quality assurance efforts to focus on results. Proposed changes included expanding staff training to enhance caseworkers' counseling and evaluation skills for chemical dependency, mental and physical health, disabilities, and family dysfunction.
  9. Requiring teenage mothers to stay in school and encouraging safe and supportive environments.
  10. Soliciting support for the Caring Communities Plan. State and local organizations would be encouraged to more closely align their efforts to contribute to the attainment of benchmarks related to reducing poverty among young adults.
  11. Alerting participants to new responsibilities and opportunities. An expanded communications effort would reach assistance recipients, front line workers, and community and business leaders with information on the new system's expectations and requirements.

As the working group's welfare reform plan began to take shape, it became clear that implementation would necessitate changes in federal program requirements. Unlike some of the other cluster areas of the Oregon Option, however, federal authority to waive some statutory and regulatory requirements governing welfare already existed. Many requests from states for so-called Section 1115 waivers(5) to create pilot welfare reform programs already were reviewed and approved under both the Bush and Clinton administrations.

Efforts to craft Oregon's welfare reform proposal did not include developing a collaborative intergovernmental and interagency partnership similar to the Oregon Workforce Option. Ideas and information were exchanged while the plan was under development. But federal/state contact was more limited in scope and less frequent than in a number of the Oregon Option clusters. Four factors may have contributed to the decision by federal and state representatives to follow a different approach:

Oregon leaders continued to brief their federal counterparts and the Intergovernmental Interagency Action Team about their developing proposal during the summer of 1995.(6) While Oregon's Duncan Wyse raised concerns during these sessions that the existing waiver review process might not be able to accommodate the broad scope of the state's waiver request, Oregon and the department agreed that the state's request would first be submitted for review under the agency's Section 1115 procedures.

In accord with this agreement, Oregon submitted a discussion draft of their waiver request to the department in July 1995. Even as discussions were underway between Oregon and the department, state action on welfare reform continued. For example, the Oregon welfare reform strategy was adopted in state legislation in the fall of 1995.(7) However, as proposals to reform the national program were moving forward in fall of 1995, the department agreed to Oregon's request to place a hold on considering the state's request pending congressional action on reform. Negotiations on Oregon's welfare waiver request resumed in the winter of 1995 as the prospects for congressional action appeared to stall.

OREGON WELFARE WAIVER REQUEST -- Milestones

Date

Action

Spring/Summer 1995

Oregon/DHHS Share Draft Materials and Analyses on Potential Waiver Request

July 10, 1995

Formal Waiver Request from Oregon Received by DHHS

August 11, 1995

DHHS Analysis Paper Identifies Issues, Concerns, Information Needs. Sent to Oregon

August 22, 1995

Partial Response from Oregon to DHHS on Analysis Paper

August 24, 1995

Follow up Call Between DHHS and Oregon on Analysis Paper

September 7, 1995

DHHS Receives Additional Material From Oregon Responding to the Analysis Paper

Sept/Oct 1995

Oregon Requests DHHS to Hold On Consideration of Waiver Request Pending Outcome of Welfare Reform Legislation

November 7, 1995

Oregon Letter Requests Further Consideration of Waiver by DHHS

Dec 1995/Jan 1996

U.S. Government-Wide Furloughs Block Action on Oregon's Request

January 26, 1996

DHHS Letter to Oregon Proposes Process for Proceeding on State Waiver Request

February 22, 1996

DHHS and Oregon Officials Meet to Discuss Next Steps

March 6, 1996

Conference Call of DHHS and Oregon Officials to Discuss Next Steps and Possible Terms and Conditions

March 15, 1996

DHHS Issues Draft Terms and Conditions for Oregon Waiver

March 18, 1996

Draft Terms and Conditions Revised and DHHS/Oregon Conference Call. Oral Agreement on Waiver Reached

March 28, 1996

DHHS Formally Issues Waiver and Terms and Conditions to Oregon

Federal/state discussions were completed and the DHHS issued a waiver for Oregon in March 1996.(8) Under the waiver, Oregon will test an innovative employment-focused approach to moving people from welfare to work. The state will emphasize involving the entire AFDC caseload in job-related activities, providing support for employment, and defining success in terms of employment outcomes. Most importantly, the waiver improves the incentives for investing in prevention programs that will help move more people from welfare to work in the future. The "reinvestment provision" allows funds saved from reducing annual AFDC expenditures through moving recipients from welfare to work to be used in providing services that promote self-sufficiency, such as additional child care and JOBS services.

Evolution of Family Stability Benchmarks

Background: Oregon's new welfare program builds upon the state's long term commitment to economic growth and continuing improvements in family incomes and stability. Both Oregon Shines and the Oregon Benchmarks emphasize building statewide capacity for long-term, well managed growth.(9) And the link between fomenting healthy, stable communities and families, in part by raising state per capita income and reducing the number of Oregonians in poverty, is given equal emphasis throughout the strategic plan.(10)

Under the welfare waiver, Oregon is striving to reduce the percentage of children and adults living in poverty and to increase the percentage of adults who are self-sufficient. Specific short- and long-term goals were also proposed in the reform plan developed by Oregon's Welfare Reform Work Group:(11)

OREGON OPTION FAMILY STABILITY CLUSTER BENCHMARKS --

Oregon Public Assistance Redesign Proposal

Goals for First 24 Months

Goals for the Year 2000

FS1: Reduce AFDC caseload from 40,000 to 33,000 through self-sufficiency efforts.

FS3: Reduce AFDC caseload to 20,000.

FS2: Reduce the percentage of children living in poverty from 11% to 9%.

FS4: Reduce the percentage of children living in poverty to 6%.

FS5: Reduce the first time demand for public assistance among young adults by decreasing rates of teen pregnancy, teen drug use, and juvenile crime and increasing school graduation and placement rates for young adults.

Evolution of the Oregon Family Stability Benchmarks: The law creating the Oregon Progress Board required the development of measurable benchmarks to track progress toward achievement of the strategic vision proposed in Oregon Shines. The chart on the following page summarizes the development and evolution of these benchmarks across the three reports to the legislature. A more detailed review is found in the Appendices.

EVOLUTION OF THE FAMILY STABILITY CLUSTER BENCHMARKS -- 1991, 1993, 1995 BENCHMARK REPORTS

Benchmark

1991 Report

1993 Report

1995 Report

Data Sources

FS1 & 3: AFDC caseload reductions

While there were a series of related benchmarks -- reducing poverty, improving household incomes, etc -- the benchmarks did not recommend target levels for AFDC caseloads.

While there were a series of related benchmarks -- reducing poverty, improving household incomes, etc -- the benchmarks did not recommend target levels for AFDC caseloads.

While there were a series of related benchmarks -- reducing poverty, improving household incomes, etc -- the benchmarks did not recommend target levels for AFDC caseloads.

Oregon's welfare system is state-administered through Adult and Family Services. State agency administrative files track caseload levels.

FS2 & 4: Reduce the percentage of children in poverty

Included as benchmark, but not priority. The % of children living above the poverty level was cited as 82% in 1990. Future Goals --

1995: 88%

2000: 92%

2010: 100%

Included as core benchmark. Percentage increased to 84% in 1992. Future goals unchanged from 1991.

Continued as priority benchmark. Future goals unchanged from 1991.

Census and Oregon Population Survey.

FS5: Reduce first time demand for AFDC by young adults through cutting teen pregnancy, teen drug use and juvenile crime and increasing high school and graduation rates for young adults.

Teen pregnancy rate reductions and cutting teen drug use included as priority benchmark. Reducing juvenile crime and improving high school grad rates included, but not as priority benchmarks.


Historic Rates and Future Goals:

Teen Preg: 1990: 19.5

1995: 9.8

2000: 8.0

2010: 8.0


Drug Free Teens:

1990: 68.2%

1995: 85%

2000: 98%

2010: 99%


Juvenile Crime Rate:

1990: 38/1000

1995: 35/1000

2000: 20/1000

2010: 10/1000


School Grad Rate:

1990: 73%

1995: 83%

2000: 93%

2010: 95%

Teen pregnancy rate reductions and cutting teen drug use included as priority benchmark. Reducing juvenile crime and improving high school grad rates included, but not as priority benchmarks.


Future Goals:

Teen Preg: unchanged from 1991




Drug Free Teens: unchanged from 1991





Juvenile Crime: unchanged from 1991










School Grad Rate:

1992: 87%

1995: 90%

2000: 94%

2010: 97%

Teen pregnancy rate reductions and cutting teen drug use included as priority benchmark. Reducing juvenile crime and improving high school grad rates included, but not as priority benchmarks.


Future Goals:

Teen Preg: unchanged





Drug Free Teens: unchanged






Juvenile Crime: unchanged











School Grad Rate: unchanged

Teen Preg: Oregon Vital Statistics Annual Report

Drug Free Teens: Data from Oregon Public School Drug Use Survey. Conducted every two years.

Juvenile Crime: Drawn from Uniform Crime Reporting Program, State Police

School Grad Rate: Published annual in Dropout Rates in Oregon High Schools from Oregon Dept of Education.

Observations on the Oregon Family Stability Cluster Benchmarks

Criteria for evaluating the benchmarks from the Oregon Family Stability Cluster and the other two clusters reviewed in this paper are drawn from the principles of the Oregon Option and the methods used to select the Oregon Benchmarks. A summary review of the Oregon Family Stability Cluster benchmarks is provided below. The chart on the following page and the Appendices contain additional details.

Link to Oregon Priorities: Both the Welfare Reform Work Group and state legislation placed priority on reducing dependency and increasing self-reliance. Cutting teen pregnancy rates, crime rates, and teen drug use and increasing high school completion rates are long established Oregon Benchmarks.

Link to Federal Priorities: The Family Stability Cluster benchmarks are consistent with the emphasis in both the current AFDC program and legislative proposals to reform national welfare policy. Related benchmarks for teen pregnancy and drug free teens are also endorsed by the state and county Commissions on Children and Families.

Engagement of and Endorsement by Stakeholders: Stakeholders were directly involved in developing the reform proposal developed by the state's Welfare Reform Work Group. State Legislative action in 1995 provided additional opportunities for public input.

Data Availability:

Oregon Population Survey: A random telephone survey of Oregon households is completed every two years to provide updates of census data necessary to track progress toward the Oregon Benchmarks. Conducted by the state economist or Oregon Progress Board, data to be collected is identified through the collaborative efforts of 10 state agencies. The small sample size of the survey, however, limits the disaggregation of data at the local level.

Student Drug Use Survey: Information is collected through surveys of students completed every two years.

Administrative Files: Welfare is administered on the state-level by Adult and Family Services. State agency files provide extensive information on participation rates and services provided. Information on employment, services, and outcomes are also available from the State Information System (See section on data for Oregon Workforce Option benchmarks).

State Priority

Federal Priority

Outcome Measure

Data Availability

Ambitious Goal Compared to Historic Levels

FS1 and FS3: Reducing AFDC caseloads

Not included in benchmarks. Related benchmarks on improving household incomes and reducing childhood poverty. Cutting caseloads and increasing self-sufficiency included as goal in state legislation. Target levels set in Welfare Waiver linked to creating reinvestment fund with savings.

Consistent with priorities of existing system and welfare reform proposals at national level. Target levels included in negotiations on waiver.

Mix of output and outcome measure.

Extensive data from state program and fiscal records.

Targets would maintain current trends of sharp decline in AFDC caseloads.

FS2 and FS4:

Reducing the percentage of children living in poverty

Related benchmarks included in all 3 Reports. Core or urgent benchmark in 1993 and 1995.

Outcome.

Based on decennial census and updated every two years. Not sufficient for small area coverage.

Goal to reverse national trends toward increasing rate of children in poverty.

FS5(A): Decreasing teen pregnancy

Included as priority benchmark.

Links to federal investments in reducing teen pregnancy rates.

Outcome.

Data packets already available at state and county levels.

Seeks to cut rate from 19.5 in 1990 to 9.8 in 1995.

FS5(B): Drug free teens

Included as priority benchmark.

Consistent with priorities of national goals for reducing substance abuse among teens

Outcome.

Based on survey data collected at school level every two years.

Seeks to increase rate from 69% in 1990 to 99% in 2010.

State Priority

Federal Priority

Outcome Measure

Data Availability

Ambitious Goal Compared to Historic Levels

FS5(C): Juvenile crime rates

Included as priority benchmark in 1995 Report.

Consistent with national efforts to reduce juvenile crime.

Outcome.

Derived from Uniform Crime Reporting Program. Includes reported crimes, not incidence rates.

Seeks to cut rate by factor of 3 from 38/1,000 juveniles in 1990 to 35 in 1995 and 20 in 2000.

FS5(D): Increasing school graduation rates

Included as priority benchmark.

Included as U.S. Department of Education goals and national education reform proposals.

Output. Other benchmarks track skills mastery, etc.

Available at state, school district and school levels.

Seeks to significantly increase graduation rates from 77% in 1993 to 83% in 1995, etc.

ENDNOTES

(1) House Bill 3309, 67th Oregon Legislative Assembly -- 1993 Regular Session. "An Investment Opportunity: Redesigning Oregon's Public Assistance System to Reduce Poverty By Placing More Oregonians in Jobs", Report of the Work Group, March 28, 1995. See Appendix 1 and pages 1-3.

(2) An Investment Opportunity. See page 1. The Welfare Reform Work Group members included: Trisonia Abraham and Ana Leos, Adult & Family Services; Patty Bennett; Cam Preus-Braly, Workforce Quality Council; Mary Kay Brant, OPEU; Matt Prophet, Oregon Progress Board; Wendy Cody; Jean Thorne, Department of Human Resources; Jon Egge, MP Plumbing Co.; Bernie Thurber, Legal Services; Connie Green, Chemeketa Community College; and Duncan Wyse, Oregon Progress Board.

(3) "An Investment Opportunity", Page 8+.

(4) Under Oregon's JOBS Plus pilot program, welfare clients are placed in six-month, on-the-job training positions in local businesses. Through this training experience, participants gain work experience to help them find unsubsidized employment. As described in "Main Elements of Oregon Option Welfare Reform Waivers (Provisions of Senate Bill 1117, passed by the 1995 Legislature)", Adult and Family Services Division, March 1996.

(5) Section 1115 of the Social Security Act.

(6) Oregon Option Intergovernmental Interagency Task Force Meeting Notes.

(7) Senate Bill 1117.

(8) "Governor Applauds Administration Agreement on Oregon Welfare Reform Waivers", Press Release, Office of Governor John A. Kitzhaber, March 15, 1996.

(9) Oregon Shines, page i.

(10) Oregon Shines, page 19-20.

(11) An Investment Opportunity, page 3.