CHAPTER I

CREATING A VISION FOR OREGON'S FUTURE

Confronting Change

Simply coping with change can be an enormous challenge. Shaping the future in the face of shifting trends and ebbing fortunes requires even more. Vision and perseverance are essential. But, it would not be enough. Ultimately, shaping the future entails a leap of faith. It requires a belief that the Gordian knot of causes and effects can be untwined and that a pathway to a better future can be defined, followed, and fulfilled.

Oregon made that leap in the mid 1980s, launching an ambitious effort to chart its way to a brighter future. It began as an effort to recover from the depths of a nationwide recession. But it soon became a quest for a formula for growth in the face of rapid changes in the Oregon's and the world's economies.(1)

Governor Neil Goldschmidt, elected in 1986, provided the leadership. Governor Goldschmidt focused the efforts of his administration on sustaining an economic comeback that began in 1987. But Governor Goldschmidt recognized an even bigger challenge. His goal was to create and sustain a statewide capacity for long-term, well-managed growth while also making Oregon more competitive in the expanding global economy.(2)

Oregon's effort to craft a strategy for the future confronted a series of adverse economic, social, and population trends. These trends were the basis for the anxiety Oregon's citizens and their elected leaders shared about the state's future vitality and quality of life:

Economy in Decline or Transition. Oregon's economy, once buoyed by a bountiful base of natural and renewable resources, seemed to be floundering. For example, total employment in lumber and wood products businesses, a traditional economic mainstay, plummeted precipitously from a peak of over 80,000 in 1979 to a trough of only 55,000 during the 1982 national economic downturn.(3)

Stalled Diversification. The Oregon economy had begun to diversify after World War II. But economic diversification stalled during the 1980s. Rising unemployment and drops in per capita incomes in Oregon compared to U.S. averages were chief among the painful consequences.(4)

Drooping Population Trends. In the 1970s, Oregon scored record levels of population growth. By the 1980s, people had not only stopped moving into Oregon. They were moving away.(5)

Children At Risk. In more prosperous and hard-pressed communities alike, an increasing number of children were growing up in poverty. Social and economic trends were also yielding higher levels of family instability, placing more and more children at higher risk.(6)

Concerns were not limited, however, solely to current or short term trends. To address both the current and long-term challenges and opportunities confronting the state, Governor Goldschmidt launched a comprehensive strategic planning effort. This culminated in 1989 with the release of a report -- Oregon Shines -- that captured the hopes and aspirations of Oregonians.

Oregon Shines pointed to tremendous change over the next two decades. Factors leading that change included the pressure to innovate and cut costs resulting from growing global economic competition and change, and innovations in technology that would expand access to information, alter the manufacturing sector, and inspire development of new products and services.

For Oregon's leaders these trends underscored the importance of developing a coherent strategy to sustain growth.(7) As the report concluded: "we must decide together that we want the better future we can have, and we must make decisions about where and how much to invest in that future."(8)

Leaders Dedicated to Shaping Change

Oregon Shines emphasized the need to set clear goals and monitor progress toward achieving their vision for a brighter future. Governor Goldschmidt's report set six goals that reflected this vision:(9)

• Raising per capita income in Oregon to equal or exceed the national average
• Decreasing the number of people living in poverty
• Stabilizing employment levels in all regions of the state
• Stimulating job expansion to accommodate a growing labor force and modest employment growth
• Maintaining and enhancing the state's livability -- addressing social and environmental factors that support a high quality of life
• Increasing literacy and other skills to help ensure Oregonians have the necessary capabilities to work productively in an advanced economy

Oregon identified six key elements of a strategy:(10)

• Providing the best educated and trained workforce in the U.S. by the year 2000, and a workforce competitive with any country in the world by 2010
• Maintaining environmental quality and protecting against congestion to keep a competitive advantage in quality of life
• Helping Oregonians become more knowledgeable about world languages and cultures
• Building strong partnerships between business, government, labor, education, and citizens groups to build competitive advantage
• Providing quality infrastructure and basic services that support businesses and attract talented people to the state
• Concentrating on policies that contain the cost of doing business in Oregon

Oregon Shines placed great emphasis on improving health, education, and workforce development for all Oregonians. Governor Goldschmidt was determined to convert this vision into concerted action. For example, he directed the commissions overseeing the state's social services and education systems to review current programs to determine how they might contribute to progress on the Oregon Shines goals. Were the necessary steps being taken to build the workforce needed to drive a productive economy in the future?(11)

Oregon Benchmarks -- From Vision to Measurable Objectives

The goals and strategies promulgated in Oregon Shines were the cornerstone for creating the Oregon Benchmarks. From 1989 through today, Oregon developed and used a set of measurable indicators that gauge progress at the statewide level toward the strategic goals of Oregon Shines. This section tracks the development of the benchmarks.

Engaging the Public and Creating the Benchmark Caretaker -- 1988 - 1989

Oregon has a strong tradition of direct citizen involvement in public and governmental issues. The development of Oregon Shines reflected a culture in the state that demands collaboration across sectors and levels of government and engagement of the state's citizens.

Throughout the development of Oregon Shines, a wide array of business, labor, education, and government leaders worked collaboratively to create a vision that would serve as a guidepost for the state's efforts to build a brighter future.(13)

A two-track approach was followed to carry out this assignment. One group of committees reviewed the competitiveness of Oregon as a place to do business. They helped to identify actions related to both the overall economic climate and those tied to improving the competitiveness of specific industries.(14)

The committee's 180 members worked into the Fall of 1988 completing a framework for the strategic plan. Their proposal was then further refined by the state's Economic Development Department and the governor's office. And the Oregon Shines report was released by Governor Goldschmidt in May of 1989.(15)

Governor Goldschmidt also created an institutional "champion" for the Oregon Benchmarks.(16) In 1989, he asked for the creation of the Oregon Progress Board to serve as the long-term caretaker of the state's strategic vision. The board would serve as an organizing force for taking the strategic vision and action plan to the public for review. In doing so, the board was to identify key steps necessary to achieve that vision. The Oregon Legislature approved the Governor's request in June 1989. The Progress Board also was directed to translate the strategies in Oregon Shines into measurable goals for the state.(17)

The First Oregon Benchmarks -- 1990-1991

The Oregon Progress Board began the development of the first Oregon Benchmarks by forming six steering committees. The steering committees recommended preliminary benchmarks to the Progress Board in April 1990.(19)

From the completion of Oregon Shines in 1989 through the initial publication of the first Oregon benchmarks report in 1991, hundreds of citizens were involved through these steering committees and other efforts to get public input on the development of benchmarks.(20) During this period, twelve statewide meetings were held to gauge what Oregonians cared about the most. Through facilitated discussion sessions and electronic voting to test consensus, Oregonians shared their views and helped set specific goals for their state. Written comments were also submitted to the Progress Board by over two hundred organizations and individuals.(21)

From October through December 1990, the Progress Board reviewed and revised the recommended Benchmarks. The Oregon Benchmarks were formally proposed by the board in their 1991 Report to the Legislature. The 1991 report provided nearly 160 measurable benchmarks. These benchmarks were organized into three basic categories: exceptional people, outstanding quality of life, and diverse and robust economy.(22) (See box below for examples) As directed by the legislation creating the Progress Board, the proposal was submitted to the Oregon Legislature for review during their 1991 session.(23)

CATEGORIES FOR THE 1991 BENCHMARKS -- Some Examples

In June 1991, after review in 18 committees, the Oregon Legislature unanimously adopted the benchmarks proposed in the 1991 report and directed the Progress Board to update the benchmarks every 2 years.(24)

The Progress Board released the Human Investment Partnership in the Fall of 1991. This report recommended strategies for making effective progress in achieving the benchmarks for people.(25) The 1991 Report and the Human Investment Partnership were among the crucial catalysts for legislative action. The legislature endorsed the benchmarks in their 1991 session, placing individual benchmarks at the heart of specific laws and programs in education and workforce development.(26)

The large and growing number of benchmarks was hard to manage. So Oregon leaders decided to identify their top priorities. The 1991 report highlighted seventeen benchmarks as critical measures of Oregon's human, environmental, and economic well being.(27) (See examples below) These "short-list" benchmarks related to urgent problems that must be addressed in the next five years. Another thirteen key benchmarks -- long-term benchmarks viewed as enduring measures of Oregon's vitality and health -- were also established (See examples below).(28)

LEAD AND KEY BENCHMARKS FROM 1991 REPORT -- Some Examples

Refinement and Application of the Benchmarks -- 1992-1993

As 1992 began, Oregon state government faced a serious and growing fiscal challenge that provided an opportunity to apply the strategic vision and benchmarks to budgeting decisions. Oregon's governor, Barbara Roberts, who was elected in 1990, was an enthusiastic supporter of the Oregon Benchmarks. A former legislator who had experience in working with the benchmarks, Governor Roberts was determined to use them to guide the state's response. She directed all state agencies to give priority to critical near-term benchmarks in developing their budget proposals. And Governor Roberts also required state agencies to develop performance measures consistent with those benchmarks.(29)

In practice, the benchmarks were directly tied to a series of important budget initiatives, including a strengthening of job-related education, efforts to improve protection of stream flows and river quality, cutting air pollution, and limiting urban congestion.(30)

In the 1993 report, the Progress Board added new benchmark on key issues -- the total number growing from 160 in 1991 to 272 in 1993 -- and refined existing measures and targets. The 1993 report continued, perhaps even expanded, the emphasis on health, education, and workforce development. For example, the board cited 27 "urgent" benchmarks as pressing problems or needs the state should address in the next few years.(31) Just less than half (13 of 27) of these urgent benchmarks were related to health, education, and workforce development.

The Oregon Values and Belief Study in 1993 demonstrated the strong consensus among Oregonians for the values incorporated in Oregon Shines and Oregon Benchmarks. Commissioned by the Oregon Business Council, the study explored the core values of Oregonians. The survey, conducted in July and August 1992, involved 1,362 Oregonians from all 36 of the state's counties in several thousand hours of face-to-face survey interviews.(32) Released in May 1993, the study demonstrated the core values of Oregonians in four key areas:

• Families: People cherished their families and family life above all else.
• Employment: Employment and the economic conditions that create employment were highly esteemed. Oregonians recognized that the world of work had changed significantly and that a strong relationship existed between skills and personal income.
• Education: Education was valued, particularly primary and secondary education. However, many people believed that their schools were not adequately addressing the changing needs and nature of work.
• Livability: Oregon's environment and resources were highly treasured and Oregonians acknowledge that these attributes underpin the state's economy. At the same time, they feared the future impact of population growth on the environment and livability.

Key findings from the Values and Belief Study closely tracked the principles of Oregon Shines and the Oregon Benchmarks. And the results of the survey helped inform the refinement of subsequent benchmark reports.

Public Involvement and Sharpening the Priorities -- 1994-1995

In the third edition -- the 1995 Report to the Legislature -- the Progress Board trimmed the number of benchmarks to 259 (down 13 from the high of 272 in 1993). The focus was also tightened from 27 urgent benchmarks in 1993 to a more manageable group of 16 in 1995. Once again, the benchmarks for health, education, and workforce were accorded priority status. Seven of the 16 urgent benchmarks were tied to these important challenges.(33)

Public review and comment continued to be an integral part of honing the Oregon Benchmarks.(34) In developing the 1995 report, for example, the Progress Board used an array of techniques for engaging the public. In addition to the Values and Beliefs Study, these included:

• Regional Meetings: Over 2,000 people participated in 29 town hall-style meetings. Sessions were cohosted by the Progress Board and the Oregon Business Council across the state.
• Direct Mail: Requests for comments were mailed to 12,000 citizens. More than 500 written responses were received.
• Dissemination of the Biennial Reports: The Benchmark Reports were widely distributed within Oregon. For example, more than 53,000 copies of the 1991 report were distributed.

(Note: 1994 was also the starting point for the Oregon Option partnership. This process is reviewed in the next chapter.)

Renewing the Oregon Benchmarks -- 1995-1996

The last two years marked a time for renewal of the Oregon Benchmarks, fomented by important transitions and milestones. Chief among these changes was the election of Governor John A. Kitzhaber in November 1994. Governor Kitzhaber, architect of the innovative Oregon Health Plan during his tenure in the state legislature, continued the tradition of strong gubernatorial support for the Oregon Benchmarks. Jeffrey Tryens' appointment as Director of the Oregon Progress Board in the Fall of 1995 marked a second major transition. 1995 was also a milestone for the benchmarks themselves. It was the first of three periods for which targets were set for most benchmarks.

Director Tryens soon formed plans in consultation with the Progress Board, Governor Kitzhaber, his top administrative appointees, and key legislators to review, refine, and revitalize Oregon's overall strategic vision and the benchmarks themselves.

To do so, Governor Kitzhaber appointed a task force in April 1996. The Task Force is working with the Progress Board to assess the state's progress toward achieving the strategic vision set out in Oregon Shines and the benchmarks.(35) The 45-member task force -- including legislators, county and local officials, and representatives from business, labor, academia, and the media -- has a three part assignment:(36)

• update the strategic vision framework to reflect economic and demographic trends
• forward recommendations for making Oregon Shines and the benchmarks more relevant at the regional and local level
• issue a report card on how well the state has done in achieving specific benchmarks, and to hone the focus of future benchmarks

The task force is receiving input from Oregonians through meetings held across the state during 1996. They are slated to present a preliminary report to Governor Kitzhaber in November, with a final report due to the governor and legislature by December 15th.

Measuring and Prioritizing the Benchmarks

Any tracking systems must start with baseline information to gauge trends and progress toward key goals. As the Progress Board completed the 1991 report, the base of information on historic levels for many benchmarks was limited. Data on conditions in 1980 or before, for example, were only available for one-third of the seventeen "lead" benchmarks in the 1991 report.(37) And such data were reported for just over half of the 13 key benchmarks.

The Progress Board had made greater progress, however, in setting specific benchmark goals for the future. Benchmarks for 1995, 2000, and 2010 were set for 26 of the 30 priority benchmarks.

The 1993 report also placed less emphasis on historic data. Information on conditions or performance in 1980 or before was only reported for 12 of 27 "urgent" benchmarks. Short-term priority benchmarks, designated lead benchmarks in 1991, were labeled "urgent" benchmarks in the 1993 and 1995 reports. More attention was paid to providing update information in the 1993 report. Updates for 1992, for example, were cited for a full 24 of the 27 urgent indicators. A more complete set of future targets was also generated. Goals for 1995, 2000, and 2010 were set for all or a portion of all 27 urgent benchmarks.

By the release of the 1995 report, historic data continued to be reported on a limited basis. Data on indicators for 1980 or earlier were provided for only one quarter (4 of 16) urgent

benchmarks. Updates on performance during the 1992-1994 period were cited, however, for almost all of the urgent benchmarks (15 of 16). And goals for future years were also provided for almost all (14 of 16) of these priority indicators.(38)

OREGON BENCHMARKS -- The Number and Prioritization of Oregon Benchmarks

Oregon Benchmarks Pave Way for Oregon Option

The pioneering efforts of Oregon Shines and the Oregon Benchmarks attracted attention of policy leaders on the federal level and across the country. In 1994, Oregon's efforts prepared the way for the Oregon Option -- an experiment in designing new, more results-oriented ways to do business in the federal/state/local intergovernmental context. The development of the Oregon Option is reviewed in the next section.

ENDNOTES

(1) Oregon Shines, Governor's Introduction, page i.

(2) Oregon Shines, page 1.

(3) Oregon Shines, page 3-4.

(4) Oregon Shines, page 4.

(5) Oregon Shines, page 5.

(6) Oregon Shines, page 5.

(7) Oregon Shines, page 12.

(8) Oregon Shines, page 12.

(9) Oregon Shines, page 19-20.

(10) Oregon Shines, page 23-32.

(11) Oregon Shines, page iii.

(12) 1993 Report, page 2.

(13) Oregon Shines, page i.

(14) Oregon Shines, page i.

(15) Oregon Shines, page iii.

(16) Oregon Shines, Introduction by Governor Goldschmidt, page iv.

(17) 1993 Report, page 2.

(18) Adapted from 1995 report.

(19) 1991 Report, page 1.

(20) 1991 Report, page 1.

(21) 1991 Report, page 1.

(22) 1991 Report, page 2.

(23) 1991 Report, page 2.

(24) 1993 Report, page 2.

(25) 1993 Report, page 2.

(26) 1993 Report, page 3.

(27) 1991 Report, page 5.

(28) 1991 Report, page 5.

(29) 1993 Report, page 2.

(30) 1993 Report, page 3.

(31) 1993 Report, page 10-23.

(32) Oregon Values and Beliefs: Summary, Oregon Business Council, May 1993.

(33) 1995 Report, page 19.

(34) 1995 Report, page 71.

(35) "Governor Appoints Group to Assess Oregon's Strategic Plan", News Release, Office of Governor John A. Kitzhaber, April 25, 1996.

(36) Two outlines developed by the Oregon Progress Board provided additional information on the goals of and processes used by the Oregon Shines Task Force. These include "The Oregon Shines Update Team" and "The Oregon Benchmarks Assessment Team". Both are dated as revised on May 7, 1996 and were provided by Jeffrey Tryens, Director, Oregon Progress Board.

(37) 1991 Report, page 5.

(38) 1995 Report, page 19 and sections on individual benchmarks.