Federal Economic Stimulus Projected to Cut Poverty in 2021, Though Poverty May Rise as Benefits Expire

To get a clear picture of how federal economic stimulus in 2021 supported people struggling economically, we projected how many people are in poverty in 2021 compared with 2019, before the pandemic. We also project the reduction in poverty related to stimulus efforts in 2021. We used survey data for households and employers, along with CBO’s projections of employment, to create a demographic and economic scenario for 2021. Because poverty rates for 2021 will not be released until September 2022, we used “nowcasting” to project poverty with and without the Advance Child Tax Credit (CTC), and found the net impact of federal action cut poverty levels substantially.

*This content is in the process of Section 508 review. If you need immediate assistance accessing this content, please submit a request to Suzanne Macartney, (202) 841-7227, Suzanne.macartney@hhs.gov. Content will be updated pending the outcome of the Section 508 review.

Related Products:

• COVID-19 and Economic Opportunity: Inequities in the Employment Crisis
• COVID-19 and Economic Opportunity: Unequal Effects on Economic Need and Program Response
• The Impact of the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Recession on Families With Low Incomes