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Office of the

Assistant Secretary for Planning & Evaluation


HUMAN SERVICES POLICY


Indicators of Welfare Dependence

Annual Report to Congress

October 1998

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

For on-line versions of this report (and previous annual reports)
see the Office of Human Services Policy's web page on the Indicators Reports:
http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/indicators-rtc/index.shtml


Table of Contents (in brief)

Note:  Most of the report is only available in Adobe Acrobat format (also called pdf).  These files are relatively large, but will look almost exactly like the printed report when viewed or printed.  If you need to, you can download and install the pdf "reader" you will need for your browser from the Adobe Acrobat web site.

Table of Contents (Detailed)

Executive Summary

Page

I.

Introduction (pdf file, 48K)

I-1
Organization of Report I-1
Measuring Welfare Dependence I-2
Measuring Deprivation I-7
Data Source I-10

II.

Indicators of Dependence (pdf file, 152K)

II-1
Indicators of Dependence 1.  Degree of Dependence II-2
Indicators of Dependence 2.  Dependence Transitions II-10
Indicators of Dependence 3.  Dependence Spell Duration II-12
Indicators of Dependence 4.  Receipt of Means­Tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment II-14
Indicators of Dependence 5.  Program Spell Duration II-18
Indicators of Dependence 6.  Long­Term Receipt II-20
Indicators of Dependence 7.  Multiple Program Receipt II-22
Indicators of Dependence 8.  Events Associated with the Beginning and Ending of Receipt of Means­Tested Assistance II-24
Indicators of Dependence 9.  Percentage of the Population Receiving Means­Tested Assistance II-26
Indicators of Dependence 10.  Rates of Participation in Means­Tested Assistance Programs II-32
Indicators of Dependence 11.  Means­Tested Assistance Program Transition Rates II-36
Indicators of Dependence 12.  Intergenerational Dependence II-39
III.

Predictors and Risk Factors Associated with Welfare Receipt
[First Half (pdf file, 158K), Second Half (pdf file, 150K)]

III-1
Economic Security Risk Factor 1.  Poverty Rates III-2
Economic Security Risk Factor 2.  Poverty Transition Rates III-6
Economic Security Risk Factor 3.  Poverty Spells III-8
Economic Security Risk Factor 4.  Long­Term Poverty III-10
Economic Security Risk Factor 5.  Events Associated with the Beginning and Ending of a Poverty Spell III-12
Economic Security Risk Factor 6.  Intergenerational Poverty III-14
Economic Security Risk Factor 7.  Pre­Transfer and Post­Transfer Poverty Rates III-16
Economic Security Risk Factor 8.  Child Support III-18
Economic Security Risk Factor 9.  Food Insecurity III-26
Economic Security Risk Factor 10.  Health Insurance III-28
Economic Security Risk Factor 11.  Percentage Residing in High­Poverty Neighborhoods III-30
Economic Security Risk Factor 12.  Residential Mobility III-32
Economic Security Risk Factor 13.  Adult Incarceration III-34
Second Half:
Employment and Work­Related Risk Factor 1.  Labor Force Attachment III-36
Employment and Work­Related Risk Factor 2.  Employment Among the Low­Skilled III-38
Employment and Work­Related Risk Factor 3.  Earnings of Low­Skilled Workers III-40
Employment and Work­Related Risk Factor 4.  Adult/Child Disability III-42
Employment and Work­Related Risk Factor 5.  Adult Alcohol and Substance Abuse III-44
Employment and Work­Related Risk Factor 6.  Children's Health Conditions III-46
Employment and Work­Related Risk Factor 7.  Child Care Expenditures III-47
Employment and Work­Related Risk Factor 8.  Educational Attainment III-49
Employment and Work­Related Risk Factor 9.  High­School Dropout Rates III-51
Teen Behavior Risk Factor 1.  Percentage of Births That Are to Unmarried Women Within Age Groups III-52
Teen Behavior Risk Factor 2.  Percentage of All Births That Are to Unmarried Teens III-55
Teen Behavior Risk Factor 3.  Unmarried Teen Birth Rates Within Age Groups III-58
Teen Behavior Risk Factor 4.  Early Sexual Intercourse III-60
Teen Behavior Risk Factor 5.  Never­Married Family Status III-62
Teen Behavior Risk Factor 6.  Detached Youth III-64
Teen Behavior Risk Factor 7.  Teen Alcohol and Substance Abuse III-66
Teen Behavior Risk Factor 8.  Teen Violent Crime Arrests III-68

Appendices [First Half (pdf file 183K), Second Half (pdf file, 290K)]

A.  Program Data A-1
B.  Poverty Data B-1
C.  Additional Nonmarital Birth Data C-1

List of Tables

Chapter I

SUM 1.  Percentage of the Total Population with More than 50 Percent of Income from Means­Tested Assistance Programs

SUM 2.  Percentage of the Total Population with More than 50 Percent of Income from Various Means­Tested Assistance Programs, 1994

SUM 3.  AFDC Receipt and Percentage of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps by Number of Years

SUM 4.  Percentage of Persons in Poverty before and after the Inclusion of Means­Tested Benefits:  All Persons, Selected Years 1979-1996

SUM 5.  Percentage of Persons in Poverty before and after the Including Means­Tested Benefits:  All Persons in Families with Related Children under 18 Years of Age, 1979-1996

Chapter II

IND 1a.  Percentage of Total Income from Means­Tested Assistance Programs for the Total Population, Selected Years

IND 1b.  Percentage of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps by Number of Years

IND 1c.  Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources by Poverty Status, 1994

IND 2.  Dependency Status in 1994 of Persons who Received More Than 50 Percent of Income from Means­Tested Assistance in 1993

IND 3.  Percentage of AFDC Spells for Individuals with No Family Member in the Labor Force by Length of Spell

IND 4a.  Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, 1994

IND 4b.  Percentage of AFDC Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, Selected Years

IND 5.  Percentage of AFDC, Food Stamp and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel by Length of Spell

IND 6.  Percentage of AFDC Recipients with Long­Term Receipt

IND 7.  Percentage of Individuals in AFDC Families Receiving Assistance from Other Programs

IND 8a.  Percentage of First AFDC Spell Beginnings Associated with Specific Events

IND 8b.  Percentage of First AFDC Spell Endings Associated with Specific Events

IND 9a.  AFDC/TANF Recipients as a Percentage of the Population, Selected Years

IND 9b.  Food Stamp Recipients as a Percentage of the Population, Selected Years

IND 9c.  SSI Recipients as a Percentage of the Population, Selected Years

IND 10a.  AFDC Caseload as a Percentage of Eligible Families

IND 10b.  Food Stamp Households as a Percentage of Eligible Households

IND 10c.  SSI Adult Recipients by Type as a Percentage of Eligible Group

IND 11.  Means­Tested Assistance Program Transition Rates, 1993 to 1994

IND 12.  Association of Benefit Receipt as Youth (14 to 16) with Benefit Receipt as Adults (25 to 27)

Chapter III

ECON 1a.  Number and Percentage of Persons in Poverty by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, Selected Years

ECON 1b.  Number and Percentage of People Below 50, 75, 100, and 125 Percent of Poverty Level, 1975 - 1997

ECON 2.  Percentage of Individuals Changing Poverty Status, 1993-1994

ECON 3.  Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty during the 1993 SIPP Panel by Length of Spell

ECON 4.  Percentage of Individuals Living in Poverty by Number of Years in Poverty

ECON 5a.  Percentage of First Poverty Spell Beginnings Associated with Specific Events

ECON 5b.  Percentage of First Poverty Spell Endings Associated with Specific Events

ECON 6.  Poverty Status in 1990 of Persons Who Were Under 18 and Poor in 1970

ECON 7.  Antipoverty Effectiveness of Cash and Near­Cash Transfers for All Persons in Families with Related Children Under 18, Selected Fiscal Years

ECON 8a.  Total, Non­AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support Collections, 1978-1997

ECON 8b1.  Average Annual Child Support Enforcement Payments for Current Support by Noncustodial Parents with an Obligation and Payment in Nominal and Constant Dollars, 1986 - 1997

ECON 8b2.  Proportion of IV-D Cases with Orders and Collections and Proportion of Amount Paid to Amount Due, FY 1996

ECON 8c.  Percentage of Single Mothers Receiving Child Support and Alimony by Marital Status and Receipt of Income Assistance, 1977-1996

ECON 8d.  Estimated Children Under 18 Born Outside of Marriage with Paternity Established

ECON 9.  Percentage of Households Classified as Food Insecure, 1995

ECON 10.  Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance by Age, 1996

ECON 11.  Percentage of Total Population Residing in High­Poverty Neighborhoods, Selected Years

ECON 12.  Number and Percentage of Individuals and Families Who Moved in a Given One­Year Period, Selected Years

ECON 13.  Estimated Number of Sentenced Prisoners under State or Federal Jurisdiction per 100,000 Resident Population

WORK 1a.  Percentage of All Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants, 1994

WORK 1b.  Percentage of All Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants, 1987 to 1994

WORK 2.  Percentage of All Persons Ages 18 to 65 with No More Than a High School Education Who Were Employed, 1969 to 1998

WORK 3.  Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full­Time, Full­Year with No More Than a High School Education (1995 Dollars), 1970 to 1994

WORK 4.  Percentage of the Total Population Reporting a Disability, 1994

WORK 5.  Percentage of Adults who used Cocaine, Marijuana or Alcohol, 1979 to 1997

WORK 6.  Selected Chronic Health Conditions per 1,000 Children Ages 0 to 17, 1984 to 1994

WORK 7.  Percentage of Monthly Income Spent on Child Care for Preschoolers by Families with Employed Mothers, 1993

WORK 8.  Percentage of Adults Ages 25 and Over by Level of Educational Attainment, 1970 to 1997

WORK 9.  Percentage of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the Previous Year Who Were Not Enrolled and Had Not Graduated in the Survey Year, 1975 to 1996

TEEN 1.  Percentage of Births That Are to Unmarried Women by Age Group, 1940 to 1997

TEEN 2.  Percentage of All Births That Are to Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 19, 1940 to 1996

TEEN 3.  Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teen Women within Age Groups, 1966 to 1995

TEEN 4.  Percentage of High School Students Grades 9 to 12 Who Reported Ever Having Sexual Intercourse, 1995 and 1997

TEEN 5.  Percentage of All Children Living in Families Headed by Never­Married Women, 1983 to 1997

TEEN 6.  Percentage of Youths Ages 16 to 19 Who Were Neither in School nor Working, 1975 to 1996

TEEN 7.  Percentage of Teens Ages 12 to 17 Who Used Cocaine, Marijuana or Alcohol, 1979 to 1997

TEEN 8.  Arrest Rates for Violent Crime for Youths Ages 10 to 17, per 100,000 Youths, 1980 to 1996

Appendix A

A-1.  Trends in AFDC/TANF Enrollments, 1962-1997

A-2.  Trends in AFDC/TANF Average Payments, 1962-1997

A-3.  Total, Federal and State AFDC/TANF Expenditures, Fiscal Years 1970 to 1997

A-4.  Federal and State AFDC Benefit Payments Under the Single Parent and Unemployed Parent Programs, Fiscal Years 1970 to 1996

A-5.  Number of AFDC/TANF Recipients, and Recipients as a Percentage of Various Population Groups, 1970-1997

A-6.  AFDC Characteristics, 1969-1996

A-7.  AFDC/TANF Assistance by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1978-1997

A-8.  Comparison of Federal Funding for AFDC and Related Programs and Family Assistance Grants Under PRWORA

A-9.  Average Monthly AFDC Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977-1997

A-10.  AFDC Caseload by State, October 1989 to May 1997 Peak

A-11.  Average Number of AFDC Child Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977-1997

A-12.  AFDC Recipiency Rates for Children by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977-1997

A-13.  AFDC Recipiency Rates for Total Population by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977-1997

A-14.  Trends in Food Stamp Participation, 1970-1997

A-15.  Trends in Food Stamp Expenditures, 1970-1997

A-16.  Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, 1980-1996

A-17.  Value of Food Stamps Issued by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977-1997

A-18.  Average Number of Food Stamp Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977-1997

A-19.  Food Stamp Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977-1997

A-20.  Number of Persons Receiving Federally Administered SSI Payments, 1974-1997

A-21.  Federal and State SSI Benefit Payments, 1974-1997

A-22.  Average Monthly SSI Benefit Payments, 1974-1997

A-23.  SSI Participation Rates, 1974-1997

A-24.  Total SSI Payments, Federal SSI Payments and State Supplementary Payments, Fiscal 1997

A-25.  SSI Recipiency Rates by State and Program Type, for 1979 and 1997

A-26.  SSI Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1975-1997

Appendix B

B-1.  The Poverty Gap and Reductions in the Gap from Cash and Non­Cash Transfers for All Persons, 1979-1996

B-2.  The Poverty Gap and Reductions in the Gap from Cash and Non­Cash Transfers for Persons in Families with Children Under 18 Years, 1979-1996

B-3.  Poverty Rate of Related Children Under 18 by State, Selected Years 1969-1997

B-4.  Poverty Rate of All Persons by State, Selected Years 1969-1997

B-5.  Number and Percent of Persons in Poverty by Family Relationship for All Races, 1959-1997

B-6.  Composition of Poverty Population for Selected Demographic Groups, Selected Years

B-7.  AFDC Benefit Levels for a Mother and Two Children with No Earnings, Selected Years 1972-1996

B-8.  AFDC and Food Stamp Benefit Levels for a Mother and Two Children with No Earnings by State, Selected Years 1972-1996

B-9.  Civilian Unemployment Rate, Selected Years 1979-1997

Appendix C

C-1.  Percentage of Births that are to Unmarried Women within Age Groups by Race

List of Figures

Chapter I

SUM 4.  Trends in Poverty with and without Means­Tested Benefits:  All Persons, 1979-1996

SUM 5.  Trends in Poverty before and after the Including Means­Tested Benefits:  All Persons in Families with Related Children under 18 Years of Age, 1979-1996

Chapter II

IND 1a.  Percentage of Total Income from Means­Tested Assistance Programs for the Total Population, 1994

IND 1b.  Percentage of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps by Number of Years

IND 1c.  Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources by Poverty Status, 1994

IND 2.  Dependency Status in 1994 of Persons who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Assistance in 1993

IND 3.  Duration of AFDC Spells of Individuals in Families Where No One Is in the Labor Force

IND 4a.  Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, 1994

IND 4b.  Percentage of AFDC Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, Selected Years

IND 5.  Spells of Program Participation

IND 6.  Percentage of AFDC Recipients with Long­Term Receipt, 1982-1991

IND 7.  Percentage of Individuals in AFDC Families Recipients Receiving Other Assistance, 1994

IND 9a.  AFDC/TANF Recipients as a Percentage of the Population

IND 9b.  Food Stamp Recipients as a Percentage of the Population

IND 9c.  SSI Recipients as a Percentage of the Population

IND 10a.  AFDC Caseload versus Number of Eligible Families:  Number of Cases & Percentage of Total Eligibles

IND 10b.  Food Stamp Households as a Percentage of Eligible Households

IND 10c.  SSI Adult Recipients as a Percentage of Eligible Adults

IND 11a.  Percentage of Non­Recipients Moving on to Assistance from 1993 to 1994

IND 11b.  Percentage of Recipients Moving off Assistance from 1993 to 1994

IND 12.  Percentage of Youth Recipients (14 to 16) and Youth Non­Recipients (14 to 16) who Received Three Years of Benefits as Adults (25 to 27)

Chapter III

ECON 1a.  Percentage in Poverty by Age

ECON 1b.  Percentage of Population Below 50 and 100 Percent of Poverty

ECON 2a.  Percentage of Poor Individuals Moving out of Poverty from 1993 to 1994

ECON 2b.  Percentage of Non­Poor Individuals Moving into Poverty from 1993 to 1994

ECON 3.  Length of Spells of Poverty for Persons Who Became Poor during the 1993 SIPP Panel

ECON 4.  Percentage of Children Ages 0 to 5 in 1982 Living in Poverty by Cumulative Number of Years in Poverty

ECON 6.  Poverty Status in 1990 of Persons under 18 and Poor in 1970

ECON 7.  Poverty Rate of All Persons in Families with Related Children under 18 Using Alternative Definitions of Income, 1979 - 1996

ECON 8a.  Total, Non­AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support Collections, 1978-1997

ECON 8b.  Average Annual Child Support Enforcement Payments for Current Support by Noncustodial Parents with an Obligation and Payment in Nominal and Constant 1997 Dollars, 1986-1997

ECON 8c.  Percentage of Single Mothers Receiving Child Support by Marital Status and Receipt of Income Assistance, 1977-1996

ECON 8d.  Estimated Children Under 18 Born Outside of Marriage with Paternity Established, 1978 - 1997

ECON 9.  Percentage of Households Classified as Food Insecure, 1995

ECON 10.  Percentage of Persons Without Health Insurance by Age, 1996

ECON 11.  Percentage of Total Population Residing in High­Poverty Neighborhoods, 1990

ECON 12.  Percentage of Persons and Families with Children who Moved in a Given One­Year Period

ECON 13.  Estimated Number of Sentenced Male Prisoners Under State or Federal Jurisdiction per 100,000 Resident Population, 1981 to 1996

WORK 1.  Percentage of All Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants, 1994

WORK 2.  Percentage of all Persons Ages 18 to 65 with No More Than a High School Education Who Were Employed, 1969 to 1998

WORK 3.  Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full­Time, Full­Year with No More Than a High School Education (1995 Dollars), 1970 to 1994

WORK 4.  Percentage of the Total Population Reporting a Disability, 1994

WORK 5.  Percentage of Adults who used Cocaine, Marijuana or Alcohol, 1997

WORK 7.  Percentage of Monthly Income Spent on Child Care for Preschoolers by Families with Employed Mothers, 1993

WORK 8.  Percentage of Adults Ages 25 and Over by Level of Educational Attainment, 1970 to 1997

WORK 9.  Percentage of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the Previous Year who were not Enrolled and had not Graduated in the Survey Year, 1975 to 1996

TEEN 1.  Percentage of Births That Are to Unmarried Women by Age Group, 1940 to 1997

TEEN 2.  Percentage of All Births That Are to Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 19, 1940 to 1997

TEEN 3a.  Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 17, 1966 to 1996

TEEN 3b.  Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 18 to 19, 1966 to 1996

TEEN 4.  Percentage of High School Students Grades 9 to 12 who Reported Ever Having Sexual Intercourse, 1997

TEEN 5.  Percentage of All Children Living in Families Headed by Never­Married Women, 1983 to 1997

TEEN 6.  Percentage of Youths Ages 16 to 19 Who Were Neither in School nor Working by Race, 1985 to 1996

TEEN 7.  Percentage of Teens Ages 12 to 17 Who Used Cocaine, Marijuana or Alcohol, 1979 to 1997

TEEN 8.  Arrest Rates for Violent Crime for Youths Ages 10 to 17, per 100,000 Youths, 1980 to 1996

Appendix A

A-1.  AFDC/TANF Families Receiving Income Assistance

A-2.  Average Number of Children per Family for Families with Related Children Under 18 by Living Arrangement, 1960-1996

A-3.  Average Monthly AFDC Benefit by Family and Recipient in Current and Constant Dollars

A-4.  Characteristics of AFDC Families

A-5.  Characteristics of Food Stamp Recipients

A-6.  SSI Recipients by Age, 1974-1997

A-7.  Number and Percentage Distribution of Persons Age 15 or Older with Supplemental Security Income, by Race and Hispanic Origin, 1985 and 1995

Appendix B

B-1.  The Poverty Gap and Reductions in the Gap From Cash and Non­Cash Transfers for All Person, 1979-1996

B-2.  The Poverty Gap and Reductions in the Gap From Cash and Non­Cash Transfers for Persons in Families with Children Under 18 Years, 1979-1996

B-3.  Number of Persons Living in Poverty, Unemployed and Receiving Food Stamps and AFDC, 1959-1997


Contributors to this report include:  Gil Crouse, Susan Hauan, Julie Isaacs, Matt Lyon, and Richard Silva of the Office of Human Services Policy under the direction of Patricia Ruggles, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Human Services Policy, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation.


For further information contact:

Office of Human Services Policy
Hubert H. Humphrey Bldg., Room 410E
200 Independence Ave., S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20201
Tel.  202-690-7409
Fax  202-690-6562

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