Indicators of Welfare Dependence, 1997

INDICATOR 6. LONG-TERM RECEIPT

Lifetime welfare receipt often occurs in more than one episode. Indicators that measure the duration of receipt over a lifetime further reflect the depth of dependence.

• In both nine-year time periods, almost half of all recipients received AFDC in only one or two years.
• Compared to non-black recipients, smaller percentages of black recipients experienced AFDC receipt of 1 to 2 years while larger percentages experienced longer-term AFDC receipt of 6 to 10 years in both nine-year time periods.
• Table IND 6 shows that child recipients have smaller percentages of short-term and larger percentages of long-term receipt in both time periods relative to the percentages for all recipients.

Table IND 6. Percentage of AFDC Recipients with Long-Term Receipt

	All Recipients: 1972 - 1981			All Recipients: 1982 - 1991
	All			All
Years	Recipients	Black	Non-Black	Recipients	Black	Non-Black
1 - 2 Years	49	32	59	47	37	53
3 - 5 Years	28	34	25	28	27	28
6 - 8 Years	13	19	9	15	19	12
9 - 10 Years	11	15	8	11	17	6
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

	Children 0 - 5 in 1972: 1972-1981			Children 0 - 5 in 1982: 1982-1991
Years	All Child Recipients	Black Children	Non-Black Children	All Child Recipients	Black Children	Non-Black Children
1 - 2 Years	37	24	46	34	28	39
3 - 5 Years	29	31	27	29	28	30
6 - 8 Years	15	23	10	17	16	19
9 - 10 Years	19	23	17	20	29	13
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1972 - 1991.

INDICATOR 7. MULTIPLE PROGRAM RECEIPT

Data on multiple program receipt illustrates the nature of means-tested assistance "packages" and one aspect of the depth of dependence.

• The percentage of the total population that received both AFDC and Food Stamps increased from 3.5 percent in 1990 to 4.2 percent in 1993.
• Much smaller percentages of non-Hispanic whites received AFDC and Food Stamps in all four years relative to non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics.
• As shown in Table IND 7, higher percentages of children under age 11, relative to those age 11 to 15, received both AFDC and Food Stamps. Percentages are especially high for children under age 6.
• Table IND 7 shows higher percentages of women relative to men, received income from multiple transfer programs, especially the combination of AFDC receipt and Food Stamps.

Table IND 7. Percent of the Total Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs

	AFDC and SSI				Food Stamps and AFDC				SSI and Food Stamps				AFDC, SSI and Food Stamps
	1990	1991	1992	1993	1990	1991	1992	1993	1990	1991	1992	1993	1990	1991	1992	1993
All Persons	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	3.5	3.7	4.1	4.2	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Racial Categories
Non-Hispanic White	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	1.5	1.8	1.9	1.9	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1
Non-Hispanic Black	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.5	12.6	12.6	14.1	14.5	1.7	1.9	1.9	2.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.5
Hispanic	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	7.3	8.2	8.7	9.3	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.4	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Age Categories
Children Age 0 - 5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.8	11.7	13.0	13.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Children Age 6 - 10	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.8	9.5	9.6	10.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Children Age 11 - 15	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.2	6.7	7.4	7.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Women Age 16 - 64	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.4	3.6	3.9	4.1	4.3	0.7	0.7	1.0	1.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
Men Age 16 - 64	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.6	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1990 and 1992 panels.

INDICATOR 8. EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEGINNING AND ENDING OF RECEIPT OF MEANS-TESTED ASSISTANCE

The circumstances which are associated with beginnings or endings of receipt of assistance. reveal an important aspect of dependence that provides critical guidance for policy makers.

Table IND 8a. Percent of First AFDC Episode Beginnings Associated with Specific Events

	Spell Began	Spell Began	Spell Began
	1973 - 1979	1980 - 1985	1986 - 1991
First birth to an unmarried,
non-cohabiting mother	27.9	20.9	22.2
First birth to a married and/or
cohabitating mother	13.3	17.4	11.3
Second (or higher order) birth	19.9	18.2	15.2
Divorce/separation	19.7	28.1	17.3
Mother's work hours decreased
by more than 500 hours	26.3	18.8	26.2
Other adults' work hours decreased
by more than 500 hours, but
no change in family structure	34.8	27.9	21.6
Other adults' work hours decreased
by more than 500 hours, and a
change in family structure	4.7	7.9	11.4
Householder acquired work limitation	18.1	15.6	23.5
Other transfer income dropped
by $1,000 or more (in 1996$)	4.5	6.5	4.1
Changed state of residence	4.5	10.6	5.4

Note: Events are defined to be neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. Work limitation is defined as a self-reported physical or nervous condition that limits the type of work or the amount of work the respondent can do.

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1968 - 1992.

• Nearly one-quarter (24 percent) of first AFDC spells that began between 1986 and 1991 were associated with the householder acquiring a work limitation. This is higher than the percentages for earlier spells in 1973 - 1979 (18 percent) and in 1980 - 1985 (16 percent).
• The percentage of first AFDC spells associated with a first birth to an unmarried, non-cohabiting mother is similar for spells beginning in 1980 - 1985 (21 percent) and for spells beginning in 1986-1991 (22 percent). The corresponding percentage for first spells beginning in 1973 - 1979 is much higher (28 percent).
• The percentage of first AFDC spell beginnings associated with a 500 hour or more decrease in the work hours of one or more other adults (not the mother) decreased between 1973 - 1979 (35 percent) and 1986 - 1991 (22 percent).

Table IND 8b. Percent of First AFDC Episode Endings Associated with Specific Events

	Spell Ended	Spell Ended	Spell Ended
	1973 - 1979	1980 - 1985	1986 - 1991
Mother married or acquired cohabitor	16.1	17.1	21.7
Children under 18 no longer present	4.4	4.1	4.8
Mother's work hours increased
by more than 500 hours	15.4	25.0	27.1
Other adults' work hours increased
by more than 500 hours, but
no change in family structure	21.8	16.8	16.7
Other adults' work hours increased
by more than 500 hours, and a
change in family structure	6.5	10.3	5.8
Householder no longer reports work limitation	13.0	19.2	15.8
Other transfer income increased
by $1,000 or more (in 1996$)	5.0	5.5	5.8
Changed state of residence	5.9	11.0	5.9

Note: Events are defined to be neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. Work limitation is defined as a self-reported physical or nervous condition that limits the type of work or the amount of work the respondent can do.

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1968 - 1992.

• In the 1973 - 1979 period, a greater percentage of spell endings were associated with an increase in work hours for other adults (22 percent) as compared to mothers (15 percent). In the more recent time period (1986 - 1991) a greater percentage of spell endings were associated with an increase in mother's work hours (27 percent) compared to other adults (17 percent).
• For spells beginning in the 1986 - 1991 period, the percentage of spell beginnings associated with acquiring a work limitation (24 percent, as shown in Table IND 8a) is much higher than the percentage of spell endings associated with no longer reporting a work limitation (16 percent, see above).

INDICATOR 9. PERCENT OF THE POPULATION RECEIVING MEANS-TESTED ASSISTANCE

The rate of receipt reflects an important aspect of dependence by measuring the extent to which various population subgroups rely on the major means-tested programs.

• In all years between 1970 and 1996, the percentage of all children who received AFDC is much larger than that for adults age 18 to 59.
• Participation for children under age 18 increased substantially between 1970 and 1976. While remaining relatively stable through most of the 1980s, the trend again increased dramatically from 1990 to 1994 before declining to its current level.
• Table IND 9a shows that between 1994 and 1996 the percentage of all children who received AFDC decreased almost one and a half percentage points (from 14.1 percent to 12.5 percent).

Table IND 9a. AFDC Recipients as a Percent of the Population, Selected Years

Ages	1970	1974	1978	1982	1986	1990	1992	1994	1995	1996
All (under 59)	4.2	6.0	5.7	5.4	5.5	5.5	6.4	6.6	6.2	5.7
Adults (18 to 59)	1.8	2.7	2.6	2.6	2.7	2.6	3.0	3.1	2.9	2.6
Children (under 18)	7.9	11.5	11.5	11.1	11.6	12.1	13.9	14.1	13.5	12.5

Note: Only selected years of data presented in Figure IND 9a are included in the table.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation, Characteristics and Financial Circumstances of AFDC Recipients: Fiscal Year 1995 and earlier years, (Current data available online at http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/ofa/content.htm).

• In all years between 1980 and 1995, the percentage of all children who received Food Stamps is much larger than that for all adults.
• Similar trends existed for each age group: children under 18, adults age 18 to 59 and adults 60 and older. The percentages for each group declined between 1984 and 1988, each peaked in 1994 and declined thereafter.

Table IND 9b. Food Stamp Recipients as a Percent of the Population, Selected Years

Ages	1980	1982	1984	1986	1988	1990	1992	1994	1995
Total (all ages)	8.4	8.8	8.8	8.1	7.6	8.0	9.9	10.5	10.1
Adults (60 and over)	4.9	4.4	4.5	4.1	3.7	3.6	4.0	4.5	4.4
Adults (18 to 59)	5.6	6.0	6.3	5.7	5.3	5.6	7.2	7.7	7.3
Children (under 18)	15.5	15.3	16.8	15.7	14.8	15.8	20.2	21.2	20.2

Note: Only selected years of data presented in Figure IND 9b are included in the table.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Service, Office of Analysis and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households: Fiscal Year 1995 and earlier years.

• In all years between 1974 and 1996, the percentage of adults 65 and older who received SSI is much larger than that for all other age groups.
• Trends are similar for all persons under age 64 generally increasing between 1974 and 1996. For those 65 and older, the trend moves in the opposite direction decreasing dramatically from nearly 11 percent in 1974 to 6 percent in 1996.

Table IND 9c. SSI Recipients as a Percent of the Population, Selected Years

Ages	1974	1978	1982	1986	1990	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996
Total (all ages)	1.9	1.9	1.7	1.8	1.9	2.2	2.3	2.4	2.5	2.5
Adults (65 and over)	10.8	9.3	7.4	6.9	6.5	6.5	6.4	6.4	6.3	6.2
Adults (18 to 64)	1.2	1.3	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.8	2.0	2.1	2.1	2.2
Children	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.4	1.5

Note: Children includes some recipients 18 and older who are students. Only selected years of data presented in Figure IND 9c are included in the table.

Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement, various years,(Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html).

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