Indicators of Welfare Dependence:  Annual Report to Congress, 2005

Chapter II.
Indicators of Dependence

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Contents

Following the format of the previous annual reports to Congress, Chapter II presents summary data related to indicators of dependence. These indicators differ from other welfare statistics because of their emphasis on welfare dependence, rather than simple welfare receipt. As discussed in Chapter I, the Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators suggested measuring dependence as the proportion of families with more than 50 percent of their total income in a one-year period coming from cash assistance through the AFDC (now TANF) program, food stamps and SSI benefits. Furthermore, this welfare income was not to be associated with work activities.

The indicators in Chapter II were selected to provide information about the range and depth of dependence as defined by the Advisory Board. Existing data from administrative records and national surveys, however, do not generally distinguish welfare benefits received in conjunction with work from benefits received without work. Thus, it was not possible to construct one single indicator of dependence; that is, one indicator that measures both percentage of income from means-tested assistance and presence of work activities.

This chapter focuses on recipients of three major means-tested cash and nutritional assistance programs: cash assistance through the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) programs, benefits under the Food Stamp Program, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for elderly and disabled recipients. For some indicators, summary data and characteristics are provided for all recipients, not just those defined as welfare-dependent. While a number of indicators focus on the percentage of recipients’ income from means-tested assistance, other indicators focus on presence of work activities at the same time as welfare receipt.

Here is a brief summary of each of the ten indicators:

Indicator 1: Degree of Dependence.  This indicator focuses most closely on those individuals who meet the Advisory Board’s proposed definition of “dependence.” In addition to examining individuals with more than 50 percent of their annual family income from AFDC/TANF cash assistance, food stamps and/or SSI benefits, it shows various levels of dependence by examining those with more than 0 percent, 25 percent, and 75 percent of their income from these sources (Indicators 1a and 1b). This indicator also shows the average percentage of income from means-tested assistance and earnings received by families with various levels of income relative to the poverty level (Indicators1c and 1d).

Indicator 2:  Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment.  This indicator looks further at the relationship between receipt of means-tested assistance and participation in the labor force. This is an important issue because of the significant number of low-income individuals that use a combination of means-tested assistance and earnings from the labor force.

Indicator 3:  Rates of Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance.  This indicator paints yet another picture of dependence by measuring recipiency rates, that is, the percentage of the population that receives AFDC/TANF, food stamps, or SSI in an average month. Program administrative data make these figures readily available over time, allowing a better sense of historical trends than is available from the more specialized indicators of dependence.

Indicator 4:  Rates of Participation in Means-Tested Assistance Programs.  While means-tested public assistance programs are open to all that meet their requirements, not all eligible households participate in the programs. This indicator uses administrative data and microsimulation models to reflect “take-up rates” – the number of families that actually participate in the programs as a percentage of those who are legally eligible.

Indicator 5:  Multiple Program Receipt.  Depending on their circumstances, individuals may choose a variety of different means-tested assistance “packages.” This indicator looks at the percentage of individuals receiving AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI in a month, examining how many rely on just one of these programs, and how many rely on a combination of two programs.

Indicator 6:  Dependence Transitions.  This indicator uses data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to look at whether individuals dependent on welfare in one year make the transition out of dependence in the following year.

Indicator 7:  Dependence Spell Duration.  Like Indicator 6, this indicator is concerned with dynamics of welfare receipt and welfare dependence. It shows the proportion of individuals with short, medium, and long spells, or episodes, of AFDC or TANF receipt. The focus is on individuals in families with no labor force participants who enter the AFDC/TANF program.

Indicator 8:  Program Spell Duration.  One critical aspect of dependence is how long individuals receive means-tested assistance. Like Indicator 7, this indicator provides information on short, medium, and long spells of welfare receipt. It differs from Indicator 7 in looking at all recipients, regardless of attachment to the labor force, and in analyzing recipients of each of the three major means-tested programs — AFDC/TANF, the Food Stamp Program, and SSI.

Indicator 9:  Long-Term Receipt.  Many individuals who leave welfare programs cycle back on after an absence of several months. Thus it is important to look beyond individual program spells, measured in Indicator 8, to examine the cumulative amount of time individuals receive assistance over a period of several years.

Indicator 10:  Events Associated with the Beginning and Ending of Program Spells.  To gain a better understanding of welfare dynamics, it is important to go beyond measures of spell duration and examine information regarding the major events in people’s lives that are correlated with the beginnings or endings of program spells. This measure focuses on receipt of TANF.

Indicator 1. Degree of Dependence

Figure IND 1a.
Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs: 2002

Figure IND 1a. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs: 2002

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2003, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 1a.
Percentage of Total Annual Family Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs by Race/Ethnicity and Age:2002
  0% >0% and <= 25% >25% and <= 50% >50% and <= 75% >75% and <= 100% Total > 50
Recipiency Rates (Rates of Any Amount of AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps or SSI)
All Persons 86.8 7.8 2.3 1.0 2.1 3.2
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 91.2 5.6 1.3 0.5 1.3 1.5
Non-Hispanic Black 72.3 13.6 5.4 3.0 5.6 8.7
Hispanic 78.3 12.5 4.3 1.6 3.2 4.9
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5 78.6 10.8 4.6 2.3 3.7 6.0
Children Ages 6-10 81.2 10.0 3.7 2.2 3.0 5.1
Children Ages 11-15 83.2 9.7 3.1 1.4 2.5 4.0
Women Ages 16-64 86.6 7.8 2.2 1.0 2.4 3.4
Men Ages 16-64 89.7 6.8 1.4 0.6 1.5 2.0
Adults Ages 65 and over 90.3 5.7 2.0 0.7 1.3 2.0
Family Categories
Individuals in Married-Couple Families 92.5 5.4 1.2 0.4 0.6 1.0
Individuals in Female-Headed Families 62.3 18.2 7.9 4.5 7.2 11.7
Individuals in Male-Headed Families 78.8 13.9 3.5 1.6 2.2 3.8
Unrelated Individuals 88.5 6.2 1.2 0.4 3.6 4.1
Note:  Means-tested assistance includes TANF, SSI, and food stamps. Total >50% includes all persons with more than 50 percent of their total annual family income from these means-tested programs.Income includes cash income and the value of food stamps.Spouses are not present in the Female-Headed and Male-Headed family categories.

Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Beginning in 2002, estimates for Whites and Blacks are for persons reporting a single race only. Persons who reported more than one race are included in the total for all persons but are not shown under any race category. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons but are not shown separately.

Source:  Unpublished tabulations from the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 1994-2003, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 1b.
Percentage of Total Annual Family Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs:1993-2002
  0% >0% and <= 25% >25% and <= 50% >50% and <= 75% >75% and <= 100% Total > 50
1993 83.4 7.8 3.0 1.8 4.1 5.9
1994 82.8 8.4 3.1 1.8 4.0 5.8
1995 83.2 8.5 3.1 1.8 3.5 5.3
1996 84.0 7.8 3.1 1.9 3.3 5.2
1997 83.5 7.7 2.5 1.5 3.1 4.5
1998 86.5 7.3 2.5 1.3 2.5 3.8
1999 86.7 7.7 2.3 1.1 2.2 3.3
2000 87.5 7.3 2.2 1.0 2.0 3.0
2001 87.4 7.3 2.2 1.0 2.1 3.1
2002 86.8 7.8 2.3 1.0 2.1 3.2
See above for notes and source.

Figure IND 1b.
Percentage of Total Annual Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status: 2002

Figure IND 1b. Percentage of Total Annual Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status: 2002

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2003, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 1c.
Percentage of Total Annual Family Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2002
  < 50% Poverty < 100% Poverty < 200% Poverty 200% + of Poverty All Individuals
All Persons
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 52.6 28.8 9.4 0.2 1.0
Earnings 29.1 48.2 67.2 87.7 85.9
Other Income 18.3 23.0 23.4 12.1 13.1
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 46.4 26.4 7.0 0.1 0.5
Earnings 30.4 42.7 61.5 86.9 85.4
Other Income 23.3 30.9 31.4 13.0 14.0
Non-Hispanic Black
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 62.2 37.3 15.8 0.5 3.4
Earnings 20.3 39.3 62.0 88.2 83.3
Other Income 17.1 23.49 22.1 11.3 13.3
Hispanic
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 50.7 24.8 9.0 0.6 2.5
Earnings 38.3 62.7 80.4 92.1 89.3
Other Income 11.0 12.4 10.6 7.4 8.1
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 59.9 32.8 11.3 0.3 1.9
Earnings 25.2 53.7 78.8 94.9 92.6
Other Income 14.9 13.5 9.9 4.8 5.5
Children Ages 6-10
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 59.0 31.2 10.8 0.2 1.6
Earnings 26.9 53.6 76.4 94.3 91.9
Other Income 14.1 15.1 12.8 5.5 6.5
Children Ages 11-15
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 55.7 29.1 9.9 0.2 1.3
Earnings 26.8 53.7 76.0 92.9 91.0
Other Income 17.5 17.2 14.0 6.9 7.7
Women Ages 16-64
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 50.6 30.5 10.2 0.2 1.0
Earnings 29.7 47.3 70.9 90.2 88.7
Other Income 19.6 22.2 18.9 9.6 10.3
Men Ages 16-64
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 39.8 24.3 7.7 0.2 0.7
Earnings 38.8 53.8 74.6 91.3 90.2
Other Income 21.4 21.9 17.7 8.5 9.1
Adults Ages 65 and over
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 31.0 20.2 6.3 0.4 1.1
Earnings 13.9 5.5 8.8 38.2 34.4
Other Income 55.1 74.3 84.9 61.5 64.4
Note: Total income is total annual family income, including the value of food stamps.Other income is non-means-tested, non-earnings income such as child support, alimony, pensions, Social Security benefits, interest, and dividends. Poverty status categories are not mutually exclusive.

Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Beginning in 2002, estimates for Whites and Blacks are for persons reporting a single race only. Persons who reported more than one race are included in the total for all persons but are not shown under any race category. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons but are not shown separately.

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2003, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 1d.
Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources: Selected Years
  < 50% Poverty < 100% Poverty < 200% Poverty 200% + of Poverty
1995
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 65.9 41.3 14.2 0.3
Earnings 22.5 40.4 64.8 85.4
Other Income 11.6 18.3 21.0 14.3
1998
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 58.9 32.0 10.6 0.2
Earnings 27.0 47.9 67.8 85.3
Other Income 14.1 20.1 21.6 14.5
2000
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 54.3 30.3 9.8 0.2
Earnings 30.5 49.5 68.7 86.7
Other Income >15.2 20.3 21.5 13.0
2000
TANF, SSI and Food Stamps 52.6 28.8 9.4 0.2
Earnings 29.1 48.2 67.2 87.7
Other Income 18.3 23.0 23.4 12.1
Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 1996-2003, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Indicator 2. Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment

Figure IND 2.
Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants in that Month

Figure IND 2. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants in that Month

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2003, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 2a.
Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Program Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2002
    No One in LF At Least One in LF, No One FT At Least One FT Worker
TANF All Persons 39.8 25.8 34.3
Non-Hispanic White 38.9 27.8 33.4
Non-Hispanic Black 42.9 27.6 29.6
Hispanic 40.5 22.6 36.9
Children Ages 0-5 37.7 25.0 37.3
Children Ages 6-10 45.1 23.8 31.1
Children Ages 11-15 44.4 23.7 31.9
Women Ages 16-64 39.0 27.7 33.3
Men Ages 16-64 31.9 29.5 38.6
Adults Ages 65 and over 60.7 13.7 25.6
FOOD STAMPS All Persons 42.1 24.6 33.4
Non-Hispanic White 45.1 25.4 29.5
Non-Hispanic Black 41.5 26.5 32.0
Hispanic 37.6 19.5 42.9
Children Ages 0-5 33.4 25.6 41.0
Children Ages 6-10 32.9 26.7 40.4
Children Ages 11-15 34.7 26.4 39.0
Women Ages 16-64 43.2 25.8 30.9
Men Ages 16-64 41.1 26.2 32.7
Adults Ages 65 and over 88.2 6.1 5.8
SSI All Persons 61.2 9.7 29.0
Non-Hispanic White 65.5 8.8 25.7
Non-Hispanic Black 65.6 12.1 22.3
Hispanic 52.0 9.7 38.3
Children Ages 0-5 30.1 15.9 54.0
Children Ages 6-10 34.8 19.5 45.7
Children Ages 11-15 31.0 21.1 47.9
Women Ages 16-64 68.5 9.4 22.1
Men Ages 16-64 62.3 9.2 28.5
Adults Ages 65 and over 65.0 6.8 28.2
Note: Recipients are limited to those individuals or family members directly receiving benefits in a month. Full-time workers are those who usually work 35 hours or more per week. Part-time labor force participation includes part-time workers and those who are unemployed, laid off, and/or looking for work. This indicator measures, on an average monthly basis, the combination of individual benefit receipt and labor force participation by any family member in the same month.

Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Beginning in 2002, estimates for Whites and Blacks are for persons reporting a single race only. Persons who reported more than one race are included in the total for all persons but are not shown under any race category. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons but are not shown separately.

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2003, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 2b.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants 1993-2002
  No One in LF At Least One in LF, No One FT At Least One FT Worker
1993 57.0 24.2 18.8
1994 54.8 24.8 20.4
1995 50.6 24.3 25.1
1996 50.1 25.6 24.3
1997 47.6 28.0 24.4
1998 44.3 25.8 29.9
1999 40.8 24.1 35.1
2000 41.2 24.1 34.7
2001 38.7 26.0 35.3
2002 39.8 25.8 34.3
Note: Recipients are limited to those individuals or family members directly receiving benefits in a month. Full-time workers are those who usually work 35 hours or more per week. Part-time labor force participation includes those who are unemployed, laid off, and/or looking for work. This indicator measures, on an average monthly basis, the combination of individual benefit receipt and labor force participation by any family member in the same month.

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 1994-2003, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Indicator 3. Rates of Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance

Figure IND 3a.
Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age: 1970-2003

Figure IND 3a. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age: 1970-2003

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, and U.S. Bureau of the Census (available online at http://www.census.gov).

Table IND 3a.
Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age 1970-2003
Fiscal Year Total Recipients Adult Recipients Child Recipients
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
1970 7,188 3.5 1,863 1.4 5,325 7.6
1971 9,281 4.5 2,516 1.8 6,765 9.7
1972 10,345 4.9 2,848 2.0 7,497 10.8
1973 10,760 5.1 2,984 2.1 7,776 11.3
1974 10,591 5.0 2,935 2.0 7,656 11.3
1975 10,854 5.0 3,078 2.1 7,776 11.6
1976 11,171 5.1 3,271 2.2 7,900 11.9
1977 10,933 5.0 3,230 2.1 7,703 11.8
1978 10,485 4.7 3,128 2.0 7,357 11.4
1979 10,146 4.5 3,071 1.9 7,075 11.0
1980 10,422 4.6 3,226 2.0 7,196 11.3
1981 10,979 4.8 3,491 2.1 7,488 11.8
1982 10,233 4.4 3,395 2.0 6,838 10.9
1983 10,467 4.5 3,548 2.1 6,919 11.1
1984 10,677 4.5 3,652 2.1 7,025 11.2
1985 10,630 4.5 3,589 2.0 7,041 11.2
1986 10,810 4.5 3,637 2.1 7,173 11.4
1987 10,878 4.5 3,624 2.0 7,254 11.5
1988 10,734 4.4 3,536 2.0 7,198 11.4
1989 10,741 4.4 3,503 1.9 7,238 11.4
1990 11,263 4.5 3,643 2.0 7,620 11.9
1991 12,391 4.9 4,016 2.1 8,375 12.8
1992 13,423 5.2 4,336 2.3 9,087 13.7
1993 13,943 5.4 4,519 2.3 9,424 13.9
1994 14,033 5.3 4,554 2.3 9,479 13.8
1995 13,479 5.1 4,322 2.2 9,157 13.2
1996 12,477 4.6 3,921 2.0 8,556 12.2
1997 10,779 4.0 3,106 1.5 7,673 10.8
1998 8,653 3.1 2,469 1.2 6,184 8.7
1999 7,068 2.5 1,838 0.9 5,231 7.3
2000 6,218 2.2 1,687 0.8 4,531 6.3
2001 5,674 2.0 1,504 0.7 4,171 5.7
2002 5,572 1.9 1,472 0.7 4,099 5.6
2003 5,451 1.9 1,416 0.7 4,035 5.5
Notes: See Appendix A, Tables TANF 2, TANF 12, and TANF 14, for more detailed data on recipiency rates, including recipiency rates by calendar year. Recipients are expressed as the fiscal year average of monthly caseloads from administrative data, excluding recipients in the territories. Tribal TANF recipients are also excluded. Child recipients include a small number of dependents ages 18 and older who are students. The average number of adult and child recipients in 1998 and 1999 are estimated using data from the National Emergency TANF Data Files and thereafter using the National TANF Data Files.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, and U.S. Bureau of the Census (available online at http://www.census.gov).

Figure IND 3b.
Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age: 1975-2003

Figure IND 3b. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age: 1975-2003

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 2003, and earlier reports, and U.S. Bureau of the Census (available online at http://www.census.gov).

Table IND 3b.
Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age 1975-2003
Fiscal Year Total Recipients Adult Recipients Adult Recipients Ages 18-59 Child Recipients Ages 0-18
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
1975 16,320 7.6
1976 17,033 7.8 9,126 13.8
1977 15,604 7.1
1978 14,405 6.5
1979 15,942 7.1
1980 19,253 8.5 1,741 4.9 7,186 5.6 9,876 15.5
1981 20,654 9.0 1,845 5.0 7,811 6.0 9,803 15.5
1982 21,754 9.4 1,641 4.4 7,838 6.0 9,591 15.3
1983 21,668 9.3 1,654 4.4 8,960 6.7 10,910 17.4
1984 20,796 8.8 1,758 4.5 8,521 6.3 10,492 16.8
1985 19,847 8.3 1,783 4.5 8,258 6.1 9,906 15.8
1986 19,381 8.1 1,631 4.1 7,895 5.7 9,844 15.7
1987 19,072 7.9 1,589 3.9 7,684 5.5 9,771 15.5
1988 18,613 7.6 1,500 3.7 7,506 5.3 9,351 14.8
1989 18,778 7.6 1,582 3.8 7,560 5.3 9,429 14.9
1990 20,020 8.0 1,511 3.6 8,084 5.6 10,127 15.8
1991 22,599 8.9 1,593 3.8 9,190 6.3 11,952 18.3
1992 25,369 9.9 1,687 3.9 10,550 7.2 13,349 20.1
1993 26,952 10.4 1,876 4.3 11,214 7.5 14,196 21.0
1994 27,433 10.4 1,955 4.5 11,615 7.7 14,391 21.0
1995 26,579 10.0 1,920 4.4 11,105 7.3 13,860 20.0
1996 25,494 9.5 1,891 4.3 10,769 7.0 13,189 18.8
1997 22,820 8.4 1,831 4.1 9,373 6.0 11,847 16.7
1998 19,745 7.2 1,635 3.6 7,760 4.9 10,524 14.7
1999 18,146 6.5 1,696 3.7 7,079 4.4 9,332 13.0
2000 17,156 6.1 1,700 3.7 6,612 4.0 8,743 12.1
2001 17,280 6.1 1,658 3.6 6,778 4.1 8,819 12.1
2002 19,058 6.6 1,684 3.6 7,625 4.5 9,688 13.3
2003 21,223 7.3 1,786 3.7 8,503 5.0 10,605 14.5
Note: See Appendix A, Tables FSP 1 and FSP 6 for more detailed data on recipiency rates. Recipients are expressed as the fiscal year average of monthly caseloads from administrative data, excluding recipients in the territories. From 1975 to 1983 the number of participants includes the Family Food Assistance Program (FFAP) that was largely replaced by the Food Stamp program in 1975. From 1975 to 1983 the number of FFAP participants averaged only 88 thousand.

Source: Total recipient program data are available at http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/fspmain.htm. Individual age groups do not sum exactly to total participants; they are drawn from USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 2003, and earlier reports. The population denominators for the percents in each category are from U.S. Bureau of the Census (available online at http://www.census.gov).

Figure IND 3c.
Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975-2003

Figure IND 3c. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975-2003

Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement, 2004 (available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics) and U.S. Bureau of the Census (available online at http://www.census.gov).

Table IND 3c.
Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975-2003
  Total Recipients Adult Recipients Adult Recipients Ages 18-59 Child Recipients Ages 0-18
Date Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Dec 1975 4,314 2.0 2,508 10.9 1,699 1.3 107 0.2
Dec 1976 4,236 1.9 2,397 10.2 1,714 1.3 125 0.2
Dec 1977 4,238 1.9 2,353 9.7 1,738 1.3 147 0.2
Dec 1978 4,217 1.9 2,304 9.3 1,747 1.3 166 0.3
Dec 1979 4,150 1.8 2,246 8.8 1,727 1.3 177 0.3
Dec 1980 4,142 1.8 2,221 8.6 1,731 1.2 190 0.3
Dec 1981 4,019 1.7 2,121 8.0 1,703 1.2 195 0.3
Dec 1982 3,858 1.7 2,011 7.4 1,655 1.2 192 0.3
Dec 1983 3,901 1.7 2,003 7.3 1,700 1.2 198 0.3
Dec 1984 4,029 1.7 2,037 7.2 1,780 1.2 212 0.3
Dec 1985 4,138 1.7 2,031 7.1 1,879 1.3 227 0.4
Dec 1986 4,269 1.8 2,018 6.9 2,010 1.3 241 0.4
Dec 1987 4,385 1.8 2,015 6.7 2,119 1.4 251 0.4
Dec 1988 4,464 1.8 2,006 6.6 2,203 1.5 255 0.4
Dec 1989 4,593 1.9 2,026 6.5 2,302 1.5 265 0.4
Dec 1990 4,817 1.9 2,059 6.5 2,450 1.6 309 0.5
Dec 1991 5,118 2.0 2,080 6.5 2,642 1.7 397 0.6
Dec 1992 5,566 2.2 2,100 6.5 2,910 1.9 556 0.8
Dec 1993 5,984 2.3 2,113 6.4 3,148 2.0 723 1.1
Dec 1994 6,296 2.4 2,119 6.3 3,335 2.1 841 1.2
Dec 1995 6,514 2.5 2,115 6.3 3,482 2.2 917 1.3
Dec 1996 6,630 2.5 2,110 6.2 3,568 2.2 955 1.4
Dec 1997 6,495 2.4 2,054 6.0 3,562 2.2 880 1.3
Dec 1998 6,566 2.4 2,033 5.9 3,646 2.2 887 1.3
Dec 1999 6,557 2.4 2,019 5.8 3,691 2.2 847 1.2
Dec 2000 6,602 2.3 2,011 5.7 3,744 2.1 847 1.2
Dec 2001 6,688 2.3 1,995 5.6 3,811 2.1 882 1.2
Dec 2002 6,788 2.3 1,995 5.6 3,878 2.1 915 1.3
Dec 2003 6,902 2.4 1,990 5.5 3,953 2.2 959 1.3
Note: December population figures used as the denominators are obtained by averaging the Census Bureau's July 1 population estimates for the current and the following year. See Appendix A, Tables SSI 2, SSI 8, and SSI 9 for more detailed data on SSI recipiency rates.

Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement, 2004 (available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics) and U.S. Bureau of the Census (available online at http://www.census.gov).

Indicator 4. Rates of Participation in Means-Tested Assistance Programs

Figure IND 4.
Participation Rates in the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Programs
Selected Years

Figure IND 4. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs: 2002

Source: AFDC and SSI participation rates are tabulated using the TRIM3 microsimulation model, while food stamp participation rates are from a Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. model. See Tables IND 4a, IND 4b, and IND 4c for details.

Table IND 4a.
Number and Percentage of Eligible Families Participating in AFDC/TANF
Select years
Calendar Year Eligible Families
(millions)
Participating Families
(millions)
Participation Rate
(percent)
1981 4.78 3.84 80.2
1983 4.75 3.69 77.7
1985 4.67 3.70 79.3
1987 4.92 3.78 76.7
1988 4.78 3.75 78.4
1989 4.54 3.80 83.6
1990 4.93 4.06 82.2
1992 5.64 4.83 85.7
1993 6.14 5.01 81.7
1994 (revised) 6.13 5.03 82.1
1995 5.69 4.80 84.3
1996 5.62 4.43 78.9
1997 (adjusted) 5.41 3.74 69.2
1998 (adjusted) 5.47 3.05 55.8
1999 5.07 2.65 52.3
2000 4.44 2.30 51.8
2001 4.56 2.19 48.0
2002 4.58 2.20 48.1
Note: Participation rates are estimated by an Urban Institute model (TRIM3) that uses CPS data to simulate AFDC/TANF eligibility and participation for an average month, by calendar year. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. Most notably, since 1994 the model has been revised to more accurately estimate SSI participation among children, and in 1997 and 1998 the model was adjusted to more accurately exclude ineligible immigrants.In contrast to editions prior to 2004, this table includes families receiving assistance under Separate State Programs. Note that families subject to full-family sanctions are counted as nonparticipating eligible families due to modeling limitations. Although the coverage rate estimates take into account the number of families who lost aid due to the time limit (and do not count such families in the denominator of the coverage rate estimate), they do not make any allowance for families staying off of TANF to conserve their time-limited assistance months. Also, the numbers of eligible and participating families include the territories and pregnant women without children, even though these two small groups are excluded from the TRIM model. The numbers shown here implicitly assume that participation rates for the territories and for pregnant women with no other children are the same as for all other eligibles.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, caseload tabulations and unpublished tabulations from the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 4b.
Number and Percentage of Eligible Households Participating in the Food Stamp Program: Selected Years
Date Eligible Households
(millions)
Participating Households
(millions)
Participation Rate
(percent)
September 1976 16.3 5.3 32.6
February 1978 14.0 5.3 37.8
August 1980 14.0 7.4 52.5
August 1982 14.5 7.5 51.5
August 1984 14.2 7.3 51.6
August 1986 15.3 7.1 46.5
August 1988 14.9 7.0 47.1
August 1990 14.5 8.0 54.9
August 1991 15.6 9.2 59.1
August 1992 16.7 10.2 61.6
August 1993 17.0 10.9 64.0
September 1994 (revised) 15.3 10.7 69.6
September 1995 15.0 10.4 69.2
September 1996 15.3 9.9 65.1
September 1997 14.7 8.4 57.5
September 1998 14.0 7.6 54.2
September 1999 13.7 7.3 53.0
Fiscal Year 1999 14.5 7.5 51.7
Fiscal Year 2000 14.3 7.2 50.1
Fiscal Year 2001 15.2 7.3 48.0
Fiscal Year 2002 16.6 8.0 48.3
Note: Eligible households are estimated from a Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. model that uses CPS data to simulate the Food Stamp Program. Caseload data are from USDA, FNS program operations caseload data. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS.Most notably, the model was revised in 1994 to produce more accurate (and lower) estimates of eligible households. The original 1994 estimate and estimates for previous years show higher estimates of eligibles and lower participation rates relative to the revised estimate for 1994 and estimates for subsequent years. The two estimates for 1999 are due to reweighting of the March 2000 – 2003 CPS files to Census 2000 and revised methodologies for determining food stamp eligibility. The original estimate (September 1999) is consistent methodologically with estimates from September 1994 – September 1998, while the revised estimate (FY 1999) is consistent with the estimates for FY 2000 - FY 2002.

Source: Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Trends in Food Stamp Program Participation Rates: 1999 to 2002, September 2004

Table IND 4c.
Percentage of Eligible Adult Units Participating in the SSI Program,
by Type 1993-2002
  All Adult Units One-Person Units Married-Couple Units
Aged Disabled
1993 62.0 57.0 71.0 37.0
1994 65.0 58.4 73.0 43.9
1995 69.1 64.9 74.0 52.2
1996 66.6 60.4 73.5 46.7
1997 71.1 62.7 79.4 49.1
1998 70.7 63.6 77.9 48.1
1999 74.3 65.8 83.3 47.8
2000 75.8 70.9 82.3 49.9
2001 69.7 64.4 75.9 45.7
2002 70.4 61.9 78.3 47.9
Note: Participation rates are estimated using the TRIM3 microsimulation model that uses CPS data to simulate SSI eligibility for an average month, by calendar year. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. In particular, the model was revised in 1997 to more accurately exclude ineligible immigrants. Thus the increased participation rate in 1997 is partly due to a revision in estimating methodology. Also note that the figures for married-couple units are based on very small sample sizes — for example, married-couple units were only about 7.5 percent of the eligible adults units and 5.1 percent of the units receiving SSI in the average month of 1998.

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 1994-2003, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Indicator 5. Multiple Program Receipt

Figure IND 5.
Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs (TANF, Food Stamps, SSI), among Those Receiving Assistance: 2002

Figure IND 5. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs (TANF, Food Stamps, SSI), among Those Receiving Assistance: 2002

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2003, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 5a.
Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs (TANF, Food Stamps, SSI), by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2002
  Any Receipt One Program Only Two Programs
TANF FS SSI TANF & FS FS & SSI
All Persons 8.5 0.3 4.5 1.3 1.4 1.0
Racial/Ethnic Categories  
Non-Hispanic White 5.4 0.1 2.9 1.0 0.7 0.7
Non-Hispanic Black 20.8 0.4 12.2 2.3 3.5 2.5
Hispanic 12.7 0.7 6.1 1.9 2.7 1.2
Age Categories  
Children Ages 0-5 16.7 0.8 9.9 0.6 4.8 0.6
Children Ages 6-10 14.2 0.6 9.1 0.6 3.5 0.5
Children Ages 11-15 12.0 0.5 7.2 0.8 2.8 0.7
Women Ages 16-64 8.0 0.2 4.4 1.1 1.3 1.1
Men Ages 16-64 5.2 0.1 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.7
Adults Ages 65 and over 7.7 0.0 1.9 3.4 0.0 2.4
Note: Categories are mutually exclusive. SSI receipt is based on individual receipt; AFDC/TANF and food stamp receipt are based on the full recipient unit. In practice, individuals do not tend to receive both AFDC/TANF and SSI; hence, no individual receives benefits from all three programs. The percentage of individuals receiving assistance from any one program in an average month (shown here) is lower than the percentage residing in families receiving assistance over the course of a year (shown in Table SUM 1 in Chapter I and Table IND 1a in Chapter II).

Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Beginning in 2002, estimates for Whites and Blacks are for persons reporting a single race only. Persons who reported more than one race are included in the total for all persons but are not shown under any race category. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons but are not shown separately.

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 1994-2003, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 5b.
Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs
(AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps, SSI): 1993-2002
  Any Receipt One Program Only Two Programs
AFDC/ TANF FS SSI AFDC/TANF & FS FS & SSI
1993 12.6 0.6 5.2 1.1 4.8 1.0
1994 12.8 0.5 5.3 1.2 4.6 1.1
1995 12.3 0.4 5.0 1.2 4.5 1.1
1996 12.0 0.3 5.3 1.2 4.0 1.1
1997 10.2 0.4 4.3 1.3 3.1 1.0
1998 9.0 0.4 3.9 1.4 2.4 0.9
1999 8.5 0.4 3.8 1.3 2.0 1.0
2000 8.1 0.2 3.8 1.4 1.7 1.0
2001 8.1 0.3 3.9 1.4 1.5 1.0
2002 8.5 0.3 4.5 1.3 1.4 1.0
See above for note and source.

Indicator 6. Dependence Transitions

Figure IND 6.
Dependency Status in 2003 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 2002, by Race/Ethnicity

Figure IND 6. Dependency Status in 2003 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 2002, by Race/Ethnicity

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2001 panel.

Table IND 6a.
Dependency Status in 2003 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 2002, by Race/Ethnicity and Age
Individuals Receiving More than 50% of Income
from Assistance in 2002
Total (thousands) Percentage of Persons Receiving
No Aid in 2003 Up to 50% in 2003 Over 50% in 2003
All Persons 6,047 2.7 26.0 71.3
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 2,161 4.3 24.8 71.0
Non-Hispanic Black 2,202 1.1 25.6 73.3
Hispanic 1,179 3.6 30.0 66.4
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5 860 3.8 34.1 62.1
Children Ages 6-10 711 0.0 29.5 70.5
Children Ages 11-15 632 1.0 25.0 74.0
Women Ages 16-64 2,266 3.9 27.6 68.6
Men Ages 16-64 1,111 3.2 18.6 78.2
Adults Ages 65 and over 446 0.9 17.1 82.0
Note: Means-tested assistance is defined as AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI. While only affecting a small number of cases, General Assistance income is included within AFDC/TANF income.Individuals are defined as dependent if they reside in families with more than 50 percent of total annual family income from these means-tested programs.

Individual age categories do not add to total because of a small number of people not reporting age.

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2001 panel.

Table IND 6b.
Dependency Status of All Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in Previous Year
    Percentage of Persons Receiving
Total (thousands) No Aid in Second Year Up to 50% in Second Year Over 50% in Second Year
Transitions from:
1993 to 1994 14,810 1.6 18.6 79.8
1994 to 1995 13,986 2.7 18.8 78.5
1997 to 1998 9,672 3.1 28.8 68.1
1998 to 1999 8,163 2.9 27.1 70.0
2001 to 2002 6,453 1.3 28.0 70.7
2002 to 2003 6,047 2.7 26.0 71.3
Note: Because full calendar year data for 1995 were not available for all SIPP respondents, some transitions between 1994 and 1995 were based on twelve-month periods that did not correspond exactly to calendar years.

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1993, 1996 and 2001 panels.

Indicator 7. Dependence Spell Duration

Figure IND 7.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants and Entering Programs during the 1993 and 2001 SIPP Panels, by Length of Spell

Figure IND 7. Percentage of AFDC/TANF Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants and Entering Programs during the 1993 and 2001 SIPP Panels, by Length of Spell Figure IND 7. Percentage of AFDC/TANF Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants and Entering Programs during the 1993 and 2001 SIPP Panels, by Length of Spell
Source:  Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2001 panel.

Table IND 7a.
Percentage of TANF Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants and Entering Programs during the 2001 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race/Ethnicity and Age
  Spells <=4 Months Spells 5-12 Months Spells 13-20 Months Spells >20 Months
All Persons 44.7 25.9 14.6 14.9
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 56.7 14.0 18.0 11.2
Non-Hispanic Black 47.0 21.8 11.0 20.2
Hispanic 46.8 33.6 9.3 10.3
Age Categories
Ages 0-15 Years 39.4 25.2 18.8 16.6
Ages 16-64 Years 54.4 22.8 9.5 13.3
Note: Spell length categories are mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. TANF spells are defined as those spells starting during the 2001 SIPP panel for individuals in families with no labor force participants at the start of the panel.

Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons but are not shown separately.

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2001 panel.

Table IND 7b.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants and Entering Programs during the 1993, 1996 and 2001 SIPP Panels
  Spells <=4 Months Spells 5-12 Months Spells 13-20 Months Spells >20 Months
1993 Panel All Persons 27.2 16.2 6.9 49.7
1996 Panel All Persons 40.5 27.5 13.3 18.7
2001 Panel All Persons 44.7 25.9 14.6 14.9
Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1993, 1996 and 2001 panels

Indicator 8. Program Spell Duration

Figure IND 8.
Percentage of TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs during the 2001 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Figure IND 8. Dependency Status in 2003 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 2002, by Race/Ethnicity

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2001 panel.

Table IND 8a.
Percentage of TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs
during the 2001 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race/Ethnicity and Age
    Spells <=4 Months Spells 5-12 Months Spells 13-20 Months Spells >20 Months
TANF All Recipients 49.6 23.7 10.0 16.8
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 51.4 23.7 13.1 11.9
Non-Hispanic Black 50.6 23.5 6.8 19.1
Hispanic 51.7 20.1 8.4 19.8
Age Categories
Ages 0-5 Years 50.0 24.0 11.9 14.1
Ages 6-10 Years 45.4 21.5 8.5 24.6
Ages 11-15 Years 43.7 25.3 12.4 18.6
Ages 16-64 Years 52.9 24.2 8.4 14.4
65 Years and Older NA NA NA NA
FOOD STAMPS All Recipients 35.9 24.4 8.9 30.7
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 35.9 25.8 8.0 30.3
Non-Hispanic Black 32.2 23.7 11.7 32.4
Hispanic 40.5 22.5 7.8 29.2
Age Categories
Ages 0-5 Years 27.7 25.6 12.9 33.8
Ages 6-10 Years 28.6 27.4 10.7 33.3
Ages 11-15 31.8 28.1 9.6 30.6
Ages 16-64 40.3 23.9 7.5 28.4
65 Years and Older 30.0 12.5 9.6 48.0
SSI All Recipients 27.9 21.4 7.3 43.5
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 31.3 19.8 7.9 41.0
Non-Hispanic Black 26.9 25.3 7.1 40.7
Hispanic 23.7 18.8 7.3 50.2
Age Categories
Ages 0-10 NA NA NA NA
Ages 11-15 31.2 18.8 3.9 46.1
Ages 16-64 29.4 20.9 7.2 42.5
65 Years and Older 22.7 23.2 8.4 45.7
Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. TANF spells are defined as those starting during the 2001 SIPP Panel. For certain age categories, data are not available (NA) because of insufficient sample size.

Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the total for all persons but are not shown separately.

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2001 panel.

Table IND 8b.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs
during the 1992, 1993, 1996 and 2001 SIPP Panels
  Spells <=4 Months Spells 5-12 Months Spells 13-20 Months Spells >20 Months
1992 Panel
AFDC 30.4 24.7 10.5 34.4
Food Stamps 33.4 24.9 10.2 31.5
SSI 25.7 8.9 4.8 60.6
1993 Panel
AFDC 30.7 25.4 12.5 31.4
Food Stamps 33.1 26.8 10.1 30.0
SSI 24.0 7.9 4.7 63.4
1996 Panel
AFDC/TANF 46.6 29.2 11.5 12.7
Food Stamps 43.1 27.7 9.3 19.8
SSI 34.1 19.2 9.1 37.6
2001 Panel
TANF 49.6 23.7 10.0 16.8
Food Stamps 35.9 24.4 8.9 30.7
SSI 27.9 21.4 7.3 43.5
Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1992, 1993, 1996 and 2001 Panels.

Indicator 9. Long-Term Receipt

Figure IND 9.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Recipients, by Years of Receipt between

Figure IND 9. Percentage of AFDC/TANF Recipients, by Years of Receipt between

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, public release data files, 1992-2001.

Table IND 9.
Percentage of AFDC/TANF Recipients across Three Ten-Year Time Periods, by Years of Receipt, Race and Age
All Races:  All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000
Years Received AFDC/TANF
1-2 Years 44.0 44.8 50.9 36.3 36.1 37.9
3-5 Years 30.1 26.5 30.9 28.1 24.1 33.9
6-8 Years 12.5 16.4 14.5 17.9 20.5 23.3
9-10 Years 13.3 12.2 3.8 17.7 19.4 4.9
Black: All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000
Years Received AFDC/TANF
1-2 Years 30.8 35.8 48.6 24.2 26.9 37.7
3-5 Years 31.9 28.4 24.2 28.4 25.7 28.2
6-8 Years 18.6 17.5 NA 24.7 18.7 NA
9-10 Years 18.7 18.4 NA 22.8 28.7 NA
Non-Black:  All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000
Years Received AFDC/TANF
1-2 Years 51.0 51.3 52.6 45.0 43.0 38.2
3-5 Years 29.2 25.2 36.0 27.8 22.9 38.7
6-8 Years 9.4 15.7 NA 13.1 21.8 NA
9-10 Years 10.5 7.9 NA 14.1 12.3 NA
Note: The base for the percentages consists of individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC/TANF in any year in the ten-year period. Child recipients are defined by age in the first year of the 10-year period. This indicator measures years of recipiency over the specified ten-year time periods and does not take into account years of recipiency that may have occurred before or after each ten-year period.

Race categories include those of Hispanic ethnicity. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives, Asians, and Native Hawaiians/Other Pacific Islanders are included in the estimates for non-black persons but are not shown separately. Data are not available (NA) separately by race for longer periods of cumulative receipt (6 or more years) in the most recent 10-year period.

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, public release data files, 1992-2001.

Indicator 10. Events Associated with the Beginning and Eending of Program Spells

Figure IND 10a.
Trigger Events Associated with Single Mother TANF Entries during 2001 SIPP Panel

Figure IND 10a. Trigger Events Associated with Single Mother TANF Entries during 2001 SIPP Panel

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2001 panel.

Table IND 10a.
Percentage of Single Mother AFDC/TANF Spell Entries Associated with Specific Events: Selected Periods
All Races: Spell Began Spell Began Spell Began
1993-1995 1996-1999 2001-2003
Recipients’ Earnings Decreased 57.1 52.6 50.3
Other Household Earnings Decreased 24.0 21.0 19.8
Lost SSI Benefits (own) 1.4 5.1 4.5
Lost Other Government Benefits (own) 8.1 5.1 6.1
New Child in Family 22.0 17.1 20.2
Divorced/Separated from Spouse 8.7 6.7 4.2
Decrease in Number of Adults (not divorce) 19.2 17.6 15.3
Onset of Work Limitation 7.2 10.9 11.6
Moved across State Lines 1.7 1.4 2.1
None of above in Recent Past 8.8 14.1 16.9
Note: Welfare entries are defined as moving from non-receipt to receipt between two successive SIPP interviews (conducted 4 months apart); an event was associated with a welfare transition if the event was observed within two interviews (i.e., 8 months) of the interview marking the welfare entry. In general, events are neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive, and transition events may sum to more than 100 percent. Two exceptions are that"other household earnings decreased" was limited to cases when there were decreases in household earnings without a decrease in recipient earnings, and "decrease in number of adults (not divorce)" was limited to cases where the adult leaving the household was not married to the head of the household. AFDC/TANF includes General Assistance and other welfare payments. A decrease in earnings must be a decrease of at least $50 per month. Other government benefits include Unemployment Insurance, Foster Care, Railroad Retirement, Veteran's payments, and Worker’s Compensation. A work limitation is defined as a condition that limits the kind or amount of work.The category "None of above in Recent Past" represents the percentage of all spell beginnings during the period that were not associated with any of the events measured.

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1993, 1996 and 2001 panels

Figure IND 10b.
Trigger Events Associated with Single Mother TANF Exits during 2001 SIPP Panel

Figure IND 10b. Trigger Events Associated with Single Mother TANF Exits during 2001 SIPP Panel

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2001 panel.

Table IND 10b.
Percentage of Single Mother AFDC/TANF Spell Exits Associated with Specific Events: Selected Periods
All Races: Spell Ended Spell Ended Spell Ended
1993-1995 1996-1999 2001-2003
Increase in Own Earnings 54.8 44.6 34.1
Increase in Other Household Earnings 10.3 11.9 12.1
Became SSI Recipient 1.6 5.9 5.2
Became Recipient of Other Government Benefits 2.2 2.6 3.0
Last Child Left or Turned 19 5.6 2.4 1.5
Married 5.4 2.1 >2.2
Increase in Number of Adults (not marriage) 17.6 12.4 12.8
Ended Work Limitation 3.0 10.9 9.0
Moved across State Lines 2.4 1.4 2.8
None of above in Recent Past 24.0 31.1 37.4
Note: Welfare exits are defined as moving from receipt to non-receipt between two successive SIPP interviews (conducted 4 months apart); an event was associated with a welfare transition if the event was observed within two interviews (i.e., 8 months) of the interview marking the welfare exit. In general, events are neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive, and transition events may sum to more than 100 percent. Two exceptions are that "increase in other household earnings" was limited to cases when there were increases in household earnings without an increase in recipient earnings, and "increase in number of adults (not marriage)" was limited to cases where the adult joining the household was not marrying the head of the household. AFDC/TANF includes General Assistance and other welfare payments. An increase in earnings must be an increase of at least $50 per month.Other government benefits include Unemployment Insurance, Foster Care, Railroad Retirement, Veteran's payments, and Worker’s Compensation. A work limitation is defined as a condition that limits the kind or amount of work. The category "None of above in Recent Past" represents the percentage of all spell endings during the period that were not associated with any of the events measured.

Source: Unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1993, 1996 and 2001 panels.


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