Indicators of Welfare Dependence: Annual Report to Congress, 2003

Chapter III.
Predictors and Risk Factors
Associated with Welfare Receipt

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Economic Security Risk Factors

ECON 1. Poverty Rates
ECON 2. Deep Poverty Rates
ECON 3. Experimental Poverty Measures
ECON 4. Poverty Rates with Various Means-Tested Benefits Included
ECON 5. Poverty Spells
ECON 6. Long-Term Poverty
ECON 7. Child Support
ECON 8. Food Insecurity
ECON 9. Lack of Health Insurance

Employment and Work-Related Risk Factors

WORK 1. Labor Force Attachment
WORK 2. Employment Among the Low-Skilled
WORK 3. Earnings of Low-Skilled Workers
WORK 4. Educational Attainment
WORK 5. High School Dropout Rates
WORK 6. Adult Alcohol and Substance Abuse
WORK 7. Adult and Child Disability

Non-Marital Birth Risk Factors

BIRTH 1. Births to Unmarried Women
BIRTH 2. Births to Unmarried Teens
BIRTH 3. Unmarried Teen Birth Rates within Age Groups
BIRTH 4. Never-Married Family Status

The Welfare Indicators Act challenges the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to identify and set forth not only indicators of welfare dependence and welfare duration but also predictors and causes of welfare receipt. Prior to the Act, welfare research had not established clear and definitive causes of welfare dependence. However, research has identified a number of risk factors associated with welfare utilization. For purposes of this report, the terms "predictors" and "risk factors" are used somewhat interchangeably.

Whereas the Advisory Board established under the Welfare Indicators Act recommended narrowing the focus of dependence indicators, it recommended an expansive view toward predictors and risk factors. The range of possible predictors is extremely wide, and until they are measured and analyzed over time as the PRWORA changes continue to be implemented, their value will not be fully known. Some of the "predictors" included in this chapter may turn out to be simply correlates of welfare receipt, some may have a causal relationship, some may be consequences, and some may have predictive value.

For purposes of this report, the predictors/risk factors included in this chapter are grouped into three categories: economic security risk factors, employment-related risk factors, and risk factors associated with non-marital childbearing.

Economic Security Risk Factors (ECON). The first group includes nine measures associated with economic security. This group encompasses six measures of poverty, as well as measures of child support receipt, food insecurity, and lack of health insurance. The tables and figures illustrating measures of economic security are labeled with the prefix ECON throughout this chapter.

Poverty measures are important predictors of dependence, because families with fewer economic resources are more likely to be dependent on means-tested assistance. In addition, poverty and other measures of deprivation, such as food insecurity, are important to assess in conjunction with the measures of dependence outlined in Chapter II.

Reductions in caseloads and dependence can reduce poverty, to the extent that such reductions are associated with greater work activity and higher economic resources for former welfare families. However, reductions in welfare caseloads can increase poverty and other deprivation measures, to the extent that former welfare families are left with fewer economic resources.

Several aspects of poverty are examined in this chapter. Those that can be updated annually using the Current Population Survey include: overall poverty rates (ECON 1); the percentage of individuals in deep poverty (ECON 2), and poverty rates using alternative definitions of income (ECON 3 and 4). The chapter also includes data on the length of poverty episodes or spells (ECON 5); and the cumulative time spent in poverty over a decade (ECON 6).

This chapter also includes data on child support collections (ECON 7), which can play an important role in reducing dependence on government assistance and thus serve as a predictor of dependence. Household food insecurity (ECON 8) is an important measure of deprivation that, although correlated with general income poverty, provides an alternative measure of tracking the incidence of material hardship and need, and how it may change over time. Finally, health insurance (ECON 9) is tied to the income level of the family, and may be a precursor to future health problems among adults and children.

Employment and Work-Related Risk Factors (WORK). The second grouping, labeled with the WORK prefix, includes seven factors related to employment and barriers to employment. These measures include data on overall labor force attachment and the employment and earnings for low-skilled workers, as well as data on barriers to work. The latter category includes incidence of adult and child disabilities, adult substance abuse, and levels of educational attainment and school drop-out rates.

Employment and earnings provide many families with an escape from dependence. It is important, therefore, to look both at overall labor force attachment (WORK 1), and at employment and earnings levels for those with low education levels (WORK 2 and WORK 3). The economic condition of the low-skill labor market is a key predictor of the ability of young adult men and women to support families without receiving means-tested assistance.

The next two measures in this group (WORK 4 and WORK 5) focus on educational attainment. Individuals with less than a high school education have the lowest amount of human capital and are at the greatest risk of becoming poor, despite their work effort.

Measures of barriers to employment provide indicators of potential work limitations, which may be predictors of greater dependence. Substance abuse (WORK 6) and disabling conditions among children and adults (WORK 7) all have the potential of limiting the ability of the adults in the household to work. In addition, debilitating health conditions and high medical expenditures can place a strain on a family's economic resources.

Non-Marital Birth Risk Factors (BIRTH). The final group of risk factors addresses out-of-wedlock childbearing. The tables and figures in this subsection are labeled with the BIRTH prefix. This category includes long-term time trends in births to unmarried women (BIRTH 1), births to unmarried teens (BIRTH 2 and BIRTH 3), and children living in families with never-married parents (BIRTH 4). Children living in families with never-married mothers are at high risk of dependence, and it is therefore important to track changes in the size of this vulnerable population.

As noted above, the predictors/risk factors included in this chapter do not represent an exhaustive list of measures. They are merely a sampling of available data that address in some way the question of how a family is faring on the scale of deprivation and well-being. Such questions are a necessary part of the dependence discussion as researchers assess the effects of welfare reform.

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Economic Security Risk Factor 1. Poverty Rates

Poverty has declined substantially since enactment of welfare reform in 1996. Fewer than twelve percent (11.7) of all persons lived in poverty in 2001, compared to 13.7 percent in 1996. From 2000 to 2001, there was a small increase in the overall poverty rate.
Children also experienced a considerable decline in poverty from 20.5 percent in 1996 to 16.3 percent in 2001. Children continue, however, to have higher poverty rates than the overall population. For example, in 2001, the poverty rate for related children ages 0 to 5 was just over 18 percent, compared to less than 12 percent for the overall population.
The gap between black and white poverty rates was at an historic low of less than 13 percentage points in 2001; the gap has narrowed by well over a third since the early 1990s, when it exceeded 21 percentage points. The poverty rate among Hispanics declined to 21 percent in 2001, the lowest level recorded, as shown in Table ECON 1.
The poverty rate for the elderly (persons ages 65 and over) reached historic lows of less than 10 percent in 1999 and 2000 before edging up to 10.1 percent in 2001. This was a lower poverty rate than the rate for children (16 percent) and equal to that of adults ages 18-64.

Table ECON 1.
Percentage of Persons in Poverty, by Race and Age: Selected Years
Calendar
Year Related Children All Persons White Black Hispanic
Origin

Ages 0-5 Ages 6-17 Total Under 18 18 to 64 65 & over

1959 N/A N/A 22.4 27.3 17.0 35.2 18.1 55.1 N/A

1963 N/A N/A 19.5 23.1 N/A N/A 15.3 N/A N/A

1966 N/A N/A 14.7 17.6 10.5 28.5 11.3 41.8 N/A

1969 15.3 13.1 12.1 14.0 8.7 25.3 9.5 32.2 N/A

1973 15.7 13.6 11.1 14.4 8.3 16.3 8.4 31.4 21.9

1976 17.7 15.1 11.8 16.0 9.0 15.0 9.1 31.1 24.7

1979 17.9 15.1 11.7 16.4 8.9 15.2 9.0 31.0 21.8

1980 20.3 16.8 13.0 18.3 10.1 15.7 10.2 32.5 25.7

1981 22.0 18.4 14.0 20.0 11.1 15.3 11.1 34.2 26.5

1982 23.3 20.4 15.0 21.9 12.0 14.6 12.0 35.6 29.9

1983 24.6 20.4 15.2 22.3 12.4 13.8 12.1 35.7 28.0

1984 23.4 19.7 14.4 21.5 11.7 12.4 11.5 33.8 28.4

1985 22.6 18.8 14.0 20.7 11.3 12.6 11.4 31.3 29.0

1986 21.6 18.8 13.6 20.5 10.8 12.4 11.0 31.1 27.3

1987 22.3 18.3 13.4 20.3 10.6 12.5 10.4 32.4 28.0

1988 21.8 17.5 13.0 19.5 10.5 12.0 10.1 31.3 26.7

1989 21.9 17.4 12.8 19.6 10.2 11.4 10.0 30.7 26.2

1990 23.0 18.2 13.5 20.6 10.7 12.2 10.7 31.9 28.1

1991 24.0 19.5 14.2 21.8 11.4 12.4 11.3 32.7 28.7

1992 25.7 19.4 14.8 22.3 11.9 12.9 11.9 33.4 29.6

1993 25.6 20.0 15.1 22.7 12.4 12.2 12.2 33.1 30.6

1994 24.5 19.5 14.5 21.8 11.9 11.7 11.7 30.6 30.7

1995 23.7 18.3 13.8 20.8 11.4 10.5 11.2 29.3 30.3

1996 22.7 18.3 13.7 20.5 11.4 10.8 11.2 28.4 29.4

1997 21.6 18.0 13.3 19.9 10.9 10.5 11.0 26.5 27.1

1998 20.6 17.1 12.7 18.9 10.5 10.5 10.5 26.1 25.6

1999 18.0 15.5 11.8 16.9 10.0 9.7 9.8 23.6 22.8

2000 17.8 14.7 11.3 16.2 9.6 9.9 9.5 22.5 21.5

2001 18.2 14.6 11.7 16.3 10.1 10.1 9.9 22.7 21.4

Notes: Race figures include Hispanic persons in this chart. Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. All persons under 18 include related children (own children, including stepchildren and adopted children, plus all other children in the household who are related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption), unrelated individuals under 18 (persons who are not living with any relatives), and householders or spouses under age 18.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Poverty in the United States: 2001," Current Population Reports, Series P60-219 and data published online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html .

Table ECON 1.
Percentage of Persons in Poverty, by Race and Age: Selected Years
Calendar Year	Related Children	All Persons	White	Black	Hispanic Origin
Ages 0-5	Ages 6-17	Total	Under 18	18 to 64	65 & over
1959	N/A	N/A	22.4	27.3	17.0	35.2	18.1	55.1	N/A
1963	N/A	N/A	19.5	23.1	N/A	N/A	15.3	N/A	N/A
1966	N/A	N/A	14.7	17.6	10.5	28.5	11.3	41.8	N/A
1969	15.3	13.1	12.1	14.0	8.7	25.3	9.5	32.2	N/A
1973	15.7	13.6	11.1	14.4	8.3	16.3	8.4	31.4	21.9
1976	17.7	15.1	11.8	16.0	9.0	15.0	9.1	31.1	24.7
1979	17.9	15.1	11.7	16.4	8.9	15.2	9.0	31.0	21.8
1980	20.3	16.8	13.0	18.3	10.1	15.7	10.2	32.5	25.7
1981	22.0	18.4	14.0	20.0	11.1	15.3	11.1	34.2	26.5
1982	23.3	20.4	15.0	21.9	12.0	14.6	12.0	35.6	29.9
1983	24.6	20.4	15.2	22.3	12.4	13.8	12.1	35.7	28.0
1984	23.4	19.7	14.4	21.5	11.7	12.4	11.5	33.8	28.4
1985	22.6	18.8	14.0	20.7	11.3	12.6	11.4	31.3	29.0
1986	21.6	18.8	13.6	20.5	10.8	12.4	11.0	31.1	27.3
1987	22.3	18.3	13.4	20.3	10.6	12.5	10.4	32.4	28.0
1988	21.8	17.5	13.0	19.5	10.5	12.0	10.1	31.3	26.7
1989	21.9	17.4	12.8	19.6	10.2	11.4	10.0	30.7	26.2
1990	23.0	18.2	13.5	20.6	10.7	12.2	10.7	31.9	28.1
1991	24.0	19.5	14.2	21.8	11.4	12.4	11.3	32.7	28.7
1992	25.7	19.4	14.8	22.3	11.9	12.9	11.9	33.4	29.6
1993	25.6	20.0	15.1	22.7	12.4	12.2	12.2	33.1	30.6
1994	24.5	19.5	14.5	21.8	11.9	11.7	11.7	30.6	30.7
1995	23.7	18.3	13.8	20.8	11.4	10.5	11.2	29.3	30.3
1996	22.7	18.3	13.7	20.5	11.4	10.8	11.2	28.4	29.4
1997	21.6	18.0	13.3	19.9	10.9	10.5	11.0	26.5	27.1
1998	20.6	17.1	12.7	18.9	10.5	10.5	10.5	26.1	25.6
1999	18.0	15.5	11.8	16.9	10.0	9.7	9.8	23.6	22.8
2000	17.8	14.7	11.3	16.2	9.6	9.9	9.5	22.5	21.5
2001	18.2	14.6	11.7	16.3	10.1	10.1	9.9	22.7	21.4
Notes: Race figures include Hispanic persons in this chart. Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. All persons under 18 include related children (own children, including stepchildren and adopted children, plus all other children in the household who are related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption), unrelated individuals under 18 (persons who are not living with any relatives), and householders or spouses under age 18. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Poverty in the United States: 2001," Current Population Reports, Series P60-219 and data published online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html .

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Economic Security Risk Factor 2. Deep Poverty Rates

The percentage of the population in "deep poverty" (with incomes below 50 percent of the federal poverty level) decreased from 5.4 percent in 1996 to 4.8 percent in 2001. From 2000 to 2001 there was a small increase in the "deep poverty" rate.
In general, the percentage of the population with incomes below 50 percent of the poverty threshold has followed a pattern that reflects the trend in the overall poverty rate, as shown in Figure ECON 2. The percentage of people below 50 percent of poverty rose in the late 1970s and early 1980s, but then, after falling slightly, rose to a second peak in 1993. The overall poverty rate followed a somewhat similar pattern with more pronounced peaks and valleys.
Over the past two decades, there has been an overall increase in the proportion of the poverty population in deep poverty. From a low of 28 percent of the poverty population in 1976, this population rose to 41 percent in 2001.
The total number of poor people in 2001 was 32.9 million people, as shown in Table ECON 2. While higher than the previous year, this number was 3.6 million lower than 1996, and 6.7 million fewer than forty years prior.

Table ECON 2.
Number and Percentage of Total Population
Below 50, 75, 100, and 125 Percent of Poverty Level: Selected Years
Year Total Population
(thousands) Below 50 percent Below 75 percent Below 100 percent Below 125 percent

Number
(thousands) Percent Number
(thousands) Percent Number
(thousands) Percent Number
(thousands) Percent

1959 176,600 N/A N/A N/A N/A 39,500 22.4 54,900 31.1

1961 181,300 N/A N/A N/A N/A 39,600 21.9 54,300 30.0

1963 187,300 N/A N/A N/A N/A 36,400 19.5 50,800 27.1

1965 191,400 N/A N/A N/A N/A 33,200 17.3 46,200 24.1

1967 195,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A 27,800 14.2 39,200 20.0

1969 199,500 9,600 4.8 16,400 8.2 24,100 12.1 34,700 17.4

1971 204,600 N/A N/A N/A N/A 25,600 12.5 36,500 17.8

1973 208,500 N/A N/A N/A N/A 23,000 11.1 32,800 15.8

1975 210,900 7,700 3.7 15,400 7.3 25,900 12.3 37,100 17.6

1976 212,300 7,000 3.3 14,900 7.0 25,000 11.8 35,500 16.7

1977 213,900 7,500 3.5 15,000 7.0 24,700 11.6 35,700 16.7

1978 215,700 7,700 3.6 14,900 6.9 24,500 11.4 34,100 15.8

1979 222,900 8,600 3.8 16,300 7.3 26,100 11.7 36,600 16.4

1980 225,000 9,800 4.4 18,700 8.3 29,300 13.0 40,700 18.1

1981 227,200 11,200 4.9 20,700 9.1 31,800 14.0 43,800 19.3

1982 229,400 12,800 5.6 23,200 10.1 34,400 15.0 46,600 20.3

1983 231,700 13,600 5.9 23,600 10.2 35,300 15.2 47,000 20.3

1984 233,800 12,800 5.5 22,700 9.7 33,700 14.4 45,400 19.4

1985 236,600 12,400 5.2 22,200 9.4 33,100 13.6 44,200 18.7

1986 238,600 12,700 5.3 22,400 9.4 32,400 14.0 44,600 18.7

1987 241,000 12,500 5.2 21,700 9.0 32,200 13.4 43,100 17.9

1988 243,500 12,700 5.2 21,400 8.8 31,700 13.0 42,600 17.5

1989 246,000 12,000 4.9 20,700 8.4 31,500 12.8 42,600 17.3

1990 248,600 12,900 5.2 22,600 9.1 33,600 13.5 44,800 18.0

1991 251,200 14,100 5.6 24,400 9.7 35,700 14.2 47,500 18.9

1992 256,500 15,500 6.1 26,200 10.2 38,000 14.8 50,500 19.7

1993 259,300 16,000 6.2 27,200 10.5 39,300 15.1 51,900 20.0

1994 261,600 15,400 5.9 26,400 10.1 38,100 14.5 50,500 19.3

1995 263,700 13,900 5.3 24,500 9.3 36,400 13.8 48,800 18.5

1996 266,200 14,400 5.4 24,800 9.3 36,500 13.7 49,300 18.5

1997 268,500 14,600 5.4 24,200 9.0 35,600 13.3 47,800 17.8

1998 271,100 13,900 5.1 23,000 8.5 34,500 12.7 46,000 17.0

1999 273,500 12,700 4.6 21,600 7.9 32,300 11.8 44,300 16.2

2000 278,900 12,600 4.5 20,500 7.4 31,100 11.3 43,500 15.8

2001 281,500 13,400 4.8 22,000 7.8 32,900 11.7 45,300 16.1

Note: The number of persons below 50 percent and 75 percent of poverty for 1969 are estimated based on the distribution of persons below 50 percent and 75 percent for 1969 taken from the 1970 decennial census.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Poverty in the United States: 2001," Current Population Reports, Series P60-219, unpublished tables available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html , and 1970 Census of Population, Volume 1, Social and Economic Characteristics, Table 259.

Table ECON 2.
Number and Percentage of Total Population
Below 50, 75, 100, and 125 Percent of Poverty Level: Selected Years
Year	Total Population (thousands)	Below 50 percent	Below 75 percent	Below 100 percent	Below 125 percent
Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent	Number (thousands)	Percent
1959	176,600	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	39,500	22.4	54,900	31.1
1961	181,300	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	39,600	21.9	54,300	30.0
1963	187,300	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	36,400	19.5	50,800	27.1
1965	191,400	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	33,200	17.3	46,200	24.1
1967	195,700	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	27,800	14.2	39,200	20.0
1969	199,500	9,600	4.8	16,400	8.2	24,100	12.1	34,700	17.4
1971	204,600	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	25,600	12.5	36,500	17.8
1973	208,500	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	23,000	11.1	32,800	15.8
1975	210,900	7,700	3.7	15,400	7.3	25,900	12.3	37,100	17.6
1976	212,300	7,000	3.3	14,900	7.0	25,000	11.8	35,500	16.7
1977	213,900	7,500	3.5	15,000	7.0	24,700	11.6	35,700	16.7
1978	215,700	7,700	3.6	14,900	6.9	24,500	11.4	34,100	15.8
1979	222,900	8,600	3.8	16,300	7.3	26,100	11.7	36,600	16.4
1980	225,000	9,800	4.4	18,700	8.3	29,300	13.0	40,700	18.1
1981	227,200	11,200	4.9	20,700	9.1	31,800	14.0	43,800	19.3
1982	229,400	12,800	5.6	23,200	10.1	34,400	15.0	46,600	20.3
1983	231,700	13,600	5.9	23,600	10.2	35,300	15.2	47,000	20.3
1984	233,800	12,800	5.5	22,700	9.7	33,700	14.4	45,400	19.4
1985	236,600	12,400	5.2	22,200	9.4	33,100	13.6	44,200	18.7
1986	238,600	12,700	5.3	22,400	9.4	32,400	14.0	44,600	18.7
1987	241,000	12,500	5.2	21,700	9.0	32,200	13.4	43,100	17.9
1988	243,500	12,700	5.2	21,400	8.8	31,700	13.0	42,600	17.5
1989	246,000	12,000	4.9	20,700	8.4	31,500	12.8	42,600	17.3
1990	248,600	12,900	5.2	22,600	9.1	33,600	13.5	44,800	18.0
1991	251,200	14,100	5.6	24,400	9.7	35,700	14.2	47,500	18.9
1992	256,500	15,500	6.1	26,200	10.2	38,000	14.8	50,500	19.7
1993	259,300	16,000	6.2	27,200	10.5	39,300	15.1	51,900	20.0
1994	261,600	15,400	5.9	26,400	10.1	38,100	14.5	50,500	19.3
1995	263,700	13,900	5.3	24,500	9.3	36,400	13.8	48,800	18.5
1996	266,200	14,400	5.4	24,800	9.3	36,500	13.7	49,300	18.5
1997	268,500	14,600	5.4	24,200	9.0	35,600	13.3	47,800	17.8
1998	271,100	13,900	5.1	23,000	8.5	34,500	12.7	46,000	17.0
1999	273,500	12,700	4.6	21,600	7.9	32,300	11.8	44,300	16.2
2000	278,900	12,600	4.5	20,500	7.4	31,100	11.3	43,500	15.8
2001	281,500	13,400	4.8	22,000	7.8	32,900	11.7	45,300	16.1
Note: The number of persons below 50 percent and 75 percent of poverty for 1969 are estimated based on the distribution of persons below 50 percent and 75 percent for 1969 taken from the 1970 decennial census. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Poverty in the United States: 2001," Current Population Reports, Series P60-219, unpublished tables available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html , and 1970 Census of Population, Volume 1, Social and Economic Characteristics, Table 259.

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Economic Security Risk Factor 3. Experimental Poverty Measures

Three experimental measures of poverty (developed by the Census Bureau in response to the recommendation of a 1995 panel of the National Academy of Sciences) yield poverty rates that are similar to the official poverty measure overall, but differ by age and other characteristics.
Experimental measures generally show lower poverty rates among children than the official measure, partly because they take into account non-cash benefits that many children receive. Conversely, experimental measures show higher rates of poverty among the elderly than the official measure, in part due to the inclusion of certain out-of-pocket health costs in these measures.
All three measures shown in Figure Econ 3 take into account geographic adjustments (GA) in housing costs; the measures can also be calculated with no geographic adjustment (NGA), as shown in Tables ECON 3a and 3b. See note to Table ECON 3b.

Table ECON 3a.
Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Various Experimental Poverty Measures,
by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2001
Official Alt1 MSI-NGA Alt2 MIT-NGA Alt3 CMB-NGA Alt1 MSI-GA Alt2 MIT-GA Alt3 CMB-GA

All Persons 11.7 12.4 12.8 13.0 12.3 12.7 12.9

Racial/Ethnic Categories

Non-Hispanic White 7.8 8.9 9.1 9.4 8.4 8.5 8.8

Black 22.7 21.3 22.1 22.2 20.8 21.7 21.8

Hispanic Origin 21.4 21.9 23.4 23.1 24.4 26.3 25.9

Age Categories

Children Ages 0-17 16.3 14.5 15.7 15.3 14.6 15.8 15.4

Adults Ages 18-64 10.1 10.7 11.4 11.3 10.8 11.5 11.3

Adults Age 65 and over 10.1 16.1 13.7 17.1 15.5 12.7 16.2

See notes and source below.

Table ECON 3a.
Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Various Experimental Poverty Measures,
by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2001
	Official	Alt1 MSI-NGA	Alt2 MIT-NGA	Alt3 CMB-NGA	Alt1 MSI-GA	Alt2 MIT-GA	Alt3 CMB-GA
All Persons	11.7	12.4	12.8	13.0	12.3	12.7	12.9
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White	7.8	8.9	9.1	9.4	8.4	8.5	8.8
Black	22.7	21.3	22.1	22.2	20.8	21.7	21.8
Hispanic Origin	21.4	21.9	23.4	23.1	24.4	26.3	25.9
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-17	16.3	14.5	15.7	15.3	14.6	15.8	15.4
Adults Ages 18-64	10.1	10.7	11.4	11.3	10.8	11.5	11.3
Adults Age 65 and over	10.1	16.1	13.7	17.1	15.5	12.7	16.2
See notes and source below.

Table ECON 3b.
Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Various Experimental Poverty Measures: 1999-2001
1999 2000 2001

Official Measure 11.9 11.3 11.7

No Geographic Adjustment of Thresholds

Medical costs alternative 1 (MSI-NGA) 12.2 12.1 12.4

Medical costs alternative 2 (MIT-NGA) 12.8 12.7 12.8

Medical costs alternative 3 (CMB-NGA) 12.9 12.8 13.0

Geographic Adjustment of Thresholds

Medical costs alternative 1 (MSI-GA) 12.1 12.0 12.3

Medical costs alternative 2 (MIT-GA) 12.7 12.5 12.7

Medical costs alternative 3 (CMB-GA) 12.8 12.6 12.9

Note: Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. These experimental poverty measures implement changes recommended by a 1995 NAS panel, including: counting non-cash income as benefits; subtracting from income certain work-related, health, and child care expenses; and adjusting poverty thresholds for family size and geographic differences in housing costs. The three alternative measures are similar, except that each account for out-of-pocket medical expenses differently. For the first alternative ("MOOP subtracted from income" or MSI), medical out-of-pocket expenses (MOOP) are subtracted from income. The second alternative, ("MOOP in the threshold" or MIT) increases the poverty thresholds to take MOOP expenses into account. The third measure, CMB for combined methods, combines attributes of the previous two measures. Each of the three measures is calculated with and without accounting for geographic adjustments (GA and NGA). These experimental measures are different from those reported in last year's report because the Census Bureau changed its methodology based on research conducted to refine the NAS panel's experimental methods.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "Poverty in the United States: 2001, Current Population Reports, Series P60-219, available at http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p60-219.pdfsuexxpov.html.

Table ECON 3b.
Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Various Experimental Poverty Measures: 1999-2001
	1999	2000	2001
Official Measure	11.9	11.3	11.7
No Geographic Adjustment of Thresholds
Medical costs alternative 1 (MSI-NGA)	12.2	12.1	12.4
Medical costs alternative 2 (MIT-NGA)	12.8	12.7	12.8
Medical costs alternative 3 (CMB-NGA)	12.9	12.8	13.0
Geographic Adjustment of Thresholds
Medical costs alternative 1 (MSI-GA)	12.1	12.0	12.3
Medical costs alternative 2 (MIT-GA)	12.7	12.5	12.7
Medical costs alternative 3 (CMB-GA)	12.8	12.6	12.9
Note: Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. These experimental poverty measures implement changes recommended by a 1995 NAS panel, including: counting non-cash income as benefits; subtracting from income certain work-related, health, and child care expenses; and adjusting poverty thresholds for family size and geographic differences in housing costs. The three alternative measures are similar, except that each account for out-of-pocket medical expenses differently. For the first alternative ("MOOP subtracted from income" or MSI), medical out-of-pocket expenses (MOOP) are subtracted from income. The second alternative, ("MOOP in the threshold" or MIT) increases the poverty thresholds to take MOOP expenses into account. The third measure, CMB for combined methods, combines attributes of the previous two measures. Each of the three measures is calculated with and without accounting for geographic adjustments (GA and NGA). These experimental measures are different from those reported in last year's report because the Census Bureau changed its methodology based on research conducted to refine the NAS panel's experimental methods. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "Poverty in the United States: 2001, Current Population Reports, Series P60-219, available at http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/p60-219.pdfsuexxpov.html.

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Economic Security Risk Factor 4. Poverty Rates with
Various Means-Tested Benefits Included

The official definition of poverty - which includes means-tested cash assistance (primarily TANF and SSI) in addition to pre-tax cash income and social insurance - was 11.7 percent in 2001, as shown in the bold line with empty boxes in Figure ECON 4. Without cash welfare, the 2000 poverty rate would be 12.5 percent, as shown by the top line in the figure above.
Adding other, non-cash, public assistance benefits to this definition has the effect of lowering the percentage of people who have incomes below the official poverty rate. Adding in the value of food and housing benefits reduces the poverty rate to 10.5 percent in 2001.
When income is defined as including benefits from the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and federal taxes, the percentage of the total population in poverty decreases to 9.8 percent in 2001. Taxes have had a net effect of reducing poverty rates since the significant increases in the size of the EITC in 1993 and 1995.
The combined effect of means-tested cash assistance, food and housing benefits, EITC and taxes was to reduce the poverty rate in 2001 by 2.7 percentage points, as shown in Table ECON 4. Net reductions in poverty rates were somewhat lower during the recession of the early 1980s, and somewhat higher in the mid-1990s, largely due to expansions in the EITC.

Table ECON 4.
Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various Means-Tested Benefits
Added to Total Cash Income: Selected Years
1979 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2000 2001

Cash Income Plus All Social Insurance 12.8 16.0 14.5 13.8 15.6 14.9 13.5 12.0 12.5

   Plus Means-Tested Cash Assistance 11.6 15.2 13.6 12.8 14.5 13.8 12.7 11.3 11.7

   Plus Food and Housing Benefits 9.7 13.7 12.2 11.2 12.9 12.0 11.3 10.1 10.5

   Plus EITC and Federal Taxes 10.0 14.7 13.1 11.8 13.0 11.5 10.4 9.5 9.8

Reduction in Poverty Rate 2.8 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.4 3.1 2.5 2.7

Note: The four measures of income are as follows: 1) "Cash Income plus All Social Insurance" is earnings and other private cash income, plus social security, workers' compensation, and other social insurance programs. It does not include means-tested cash transfers; (2) "Plus Means-Tested Assistance" shows the official poverty rate, which takes into account means-tested assistance, primarily AFDC/TANF and SSI; (3) "Plus Food and Housing Benefits" shows how poverty would be lower if the cash value of food and housing benefits were counted as income; and (4) "Plus EITC and Federal Taxes" is the most comprehensive poverty rate shown. EITC refers to the refundable Earned Income Tax Credit, which is always a positive adjustment to income whereas Federal payroll and income taxes are a negative adjustment. The fungible value of Medicare and Medicaid is not included.
Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of March CPS data. Additional calculations by DHHS.

Table ECON 4.
Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various Means-Tested Benefits
Added to Total Cash Income: Selected Years
	1979	1983	1986	1989	1992	1995	1998	2000	2001
Cash Income Plus All Social Insurance	12.8	16.0	14.5	13.8	15.6	14.9	13.5	12.0	12.5
Plus Means-Tested Cash Assistance	11.6	15.2	13.6	12.8	14.5	13.8	12.7	11.3	11.7
Plus Food and Housing Benefits	9.7	13.7	12.2	11.2	12.9	12.0	11.3	10.1	10.5
Plus EITC and Federal Taxes	10.0	14.7	13.1	11.8	13.0	11.5	10.4	9.5	9.8
Reduction in Poverty Rate	2.8	1.3	1.4	2.0	2.6	3.4	3.1	2.5	2.7
Note: The four measures of income are as follows: 1) "Cash Income plus All Social Insurance" is earnings and other private cash income, plus social security, workers' compensation, and other social insurance programs. It does not include means-tested cash transfers; (2) "Plus Means-Tested Assistance" shows the official poverty rate, which takes into account means-tested assistance, primarily AFDC/TANF and SSI; (3) "Plus Food and Housing Benefits" shows how poverty would be lower if the cash value of food and housing benefits were counted as income; and (4) "Plus EITC and Federal Taxes" is the most comprehensive poverty rate shown. EITC refers to the refundable Earned Income Tax Credit, which is always a positive adjustment to income whereas Federal payroll and income taxes are a negative adjustment. The fungible value of Medicare and Medicaid is not included. Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of March CPS data. Additional calculations by DHHS.

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Economic Security Risk Factor 5. Poverty Spells

Half (51 percent) of all poverty spells that began during the 1996 SIPP panel ended within four months and 70 percent ended within one year. Only 11 percent of all such spells were longer than 20 months.
Spells of poverty that began between 1993 and 1995 were slightly longer; 47 percent ended within four months and 16 percent were longer than 20 months.
Poverty spells among adults age 65 and older were more likely to last longer than 20 months (17 percent) than spells among other age groups, as shown in Table ECON 5a.

Table ECON 5a.
Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty
during the 1996 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race/Ethnicity, and Age
Spells <=4 months Spells 5-12 months Spells 13-20 months Spells >20 months

All Persons 51.3 29.0 8.3 11.4

Racial/Ethnic Categories 51.3 29.0 8.3 11.4

Non-Hispanic White 54.6 28.1 7.6 9.7

Non-Hispanic Black 45.5 27.7 10.1 16.7

Hispanic 46.8 32.9 8.6 11.7

Age Categories

Ages 0 to 5 Years 46.8 29.6 10.8 12.9

Ages 6 to 10 Years 47.1 29.7 9.2 14.0

Ages 11 to 15 Years 49.5 30.9 7.9 11.7

Women Ages 16-64 years 50.7 29.3 8.5 11.5

Men Ages 16-64 Years 55.7 28.9 7.0 8.4

Adults Age 65 Years and Older 51.1 23.8 7.7 17.4

Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed.
Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1996 panel.

Table ECON 5a.
Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty
during the 1996 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race/Ethnicity, and Age
	Spells <=4 months	Spells 5-12 months	Spells 13-20 months	Spells >20 months
All Persons	51.3	29.0	8.3	11.4
Racial/Ethnic Categories	51.3	29.0	8.3	11.4
Non-Hispanic White	54.6	28.1	7.6	9.7
Non-Hispanic Black	45.5	27.7	10.1	16.7
Hispanic	46.8	32.9	8.6	11.7
Age Categories
Ages 0 to 5 Years	46.8	29.6	10.8	12.9
Ages 6 to 10 Years	47.1	29.7	9.2	14.0
Ages 11 to 15 Years	49.5	30.9	7.9	11.7
Women Ages 16-64 years	50.7	29.3	8.5	11.5
Men Ages 16-64 Years	55.7	28.9	7.0	8.4
Adults Age 65 Years and Older	51.1	23.8	7.7	17.4
Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1996 panel.

Table ECON 5b
Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty during the 1993 and 1996 SIPP Panels, by Length of Spell and Year
Spells <=4 months Spells 5-12 months Spells 13-20 months Spells >20 months

1993 Panel All Persons 47.3 28.1 8.9 15.7

1996 Panel All Persons 51.3 29.0 8.3 11.4

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 and 1996 panels.

Table ECON 5b
Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty during the 1993 and 1996 SIPP Panels, by Length of Spell and Year
	Spells <=4 months	Spells 5-12 months	Spells 13-20 months	Spells >20 months
1993 Panel All Persons	47.3	28.1	8.9	15.7
1996 Panel All Persons	51.3	29.0	8.3	11.4
Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 and 1996 panels.

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Economic Security Risk Factor 6. Long-Term Poverty

ECON 6. Percentage of Children Ages 0 to 5 in 1987 Living in Poverty Between 1987 and 1996, by Years in Poverty and Race.

ECON 6, which analyzes poverty over a ten-year period using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), is only periodically updated. This figure is unchanged from last year's report and is included to assist those without previous reports.
Among children who were ages 0 to 5 in 1987, two-thirds (66 percent) never lived in poverty for any year over the next ten years. Nearly one-quarter (23 percent) lived in poverty for one to five years and 10 percent were poor for six to ten years.
For all three time periods, the percentages of all individuals who were poor for only one to two years were much larger than the percentages of all individuals who experienced longer-term poverty. For example, while 15 percent of all individuals were poor for only one to two years between 1987 and 1996, only 5 percent were poor for six to ten years during the same time period.
Long-term poverty of six or more years decreased for blacks more than for non-blacks across the three ten-year time periods. As shown in Table ECON 6, the percentage of persons experiencing long-term poverty decreased from 27 percent in the earliest period to 22 percent in the most recent period for blacks, but remained essentially unchanged for non-blacks. The percentage of black children experiencing long-term poverty was steady across the periods, while the percentage for non-black children increased slightly, from 3 to 5 percent.

Table ECON 6:
Percentage of Individuals Living in Poverty across Three Ten-Year Time Periods,
by Years in Poverty, Race, and Age
Between 1967 and 1976:	All Persons			Children 0-5 in 1967
Cumulative Years in Poverty:	All	Black	Non-Black	All	Black	Non-Black
0 Years	75.3	37.3	80.2	70.0	26.7	76.5
1-2 Years	13.1	18.9	12.3	14.4	19.8	13.6
3-5 Years	6.2	16.6	5.0	9.1	20.5	7.4
6-8 Years	3.5	15.8	1.9	3.5	15.8	1.8
9-10 Years	1.9	11.5	0.7	2.9	17.9	0.7
Between 1977 and 1986:	All Persons			Children 0-5 in 1977
Cumulative Years in Poverty:	All	Black	Non-Black	All	Black	Non-Black
0 Years	77.9	46.3	82.2	73.7	36.7	80.0
1-2 Years	11.6	15.7	11.0	11.9	16.7	11.0
3-5 Years	5.3	14.5	4.1	5.6	12.5	4.4
6-8 Years	3.4	14.0	1.9	5.1	16.5	3.2
9-10 Years	1.9	9.5	0.8	3.7	17.6	1.3
Between 1987 and 1996:	All Persons			Children 0-5 in 1987
Cumulative Years in Poverty:	All	Black	Non-Black	All	Black	Non-Black
0 Years	74.7	44.7	79.3	66.4	30.7	75.1
1-2 Years	14.6	18.7	14.0	15.8	17.2	15.5
3-5 Years	5.5	14.3	4.1	7.6	18.8	4.8
6-8 Years	3.1	10.3	2.0	5.6	12.5	4.0
9-10 Years	2.2	12.0	0.7	4.6	20.9	0.7
Note: The base for the percentages consists of individuals in the PSID family units for all the ten-year period. Child recipients are defined by age in the first year of the ten-year period. This table measures years of poverty over the specified ten-year time periods and does not take into account years of poverty that may have occurred before or after the ten-year time period. Source: Unpublished data from the PSID 1968-93 final release files and 1994-1997 unreleased preliminary data as of January, 2002.

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Economic Security Risk Factor 7. Child Support

Collections paid through the Child Support Enforcement system (Title IV-D of the Social Security Act) totaled $19 billion in 2001, over $1 billion more than in 2000. During the 1990s, child support collections grew rapidly, at an average rate of almost $1.1 billion a year.
Non-TANF collections as a percentage of overall collections by the IV-D program have rapidly increased in recent years. (Non-TANF collections include collections paid to former TANF families as well as to families with no contact with the welfare system.) Non-TANF collections increased by $1.1 billion between 2000 and 2001, while TANF collections remained essentially unchanged. Note that this stability occurred despite a 6.5 percent drop in the number of TANF recipient families over the same time period.
The amount of TANF collections paid to AFDC/TANF families is difficult to track in recent years because of changes in data reporting forms. Available data suggest these payments declined in fiscal years 1997-2000, with an increase shown in fiscal year 2001, as shown in Table ECON 7. A number of states have opted to pass through some or all of collections to the custodial TANF family, even though the 1996 welfare reform repealed the former requirement for a $50 "pass-through to families."
More than 87 percent of TANF collections (collections on behalf of TANF recipients and for past due support assigned to the state by former TANF recipients) was retained in 2001 to reimburse the state and federal governments for the cost of welfare benefits.

Table ECON 7.
Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D
Child Support Collections:1978-2001
Fiscal Year Total Collections (in millions) Total IV-D
Administrative
Expenditures

Total AFDC/TANF Collections

Current
Dollars Constant
'00 Dollars Total Payments to
AFDC/TANF
Families Federal & State
Share of
Collections Non-
AFDC/TANF
Collections

1978 $1,047 $2,788 $472 $13 $459 $575 $312

1979 1,333 3,259 597 12 584 736 383

1980 1,478 3,240 603 10 593 874 466

1981 1,629 3,252 671 12 659 958 526

1982 1,771 3,301 786 15 771 985 612

1983 2,024 3,623 880 15 865 1,144 691

1984 2,378 4,078 1,000 17 983 1,378 723

1985 2,694 4,455 1,090 189 901 1,604 814

1986 3,249 5,234 1,225 275 955 2,019 941

1987 3,917 6,144 1,349 278 1,070 2,569 1,066

1988 4,605 6,951 1,486 289 1,188 3,128 1,171

1989 5,241 7,536 1,593 307 1,286 3,648 1,363

1990 6,010 8,233 1,750 334 1,416 4,260 1,606

1991 6,886 8,979 1,984 381 1,603 4,902 1,804

1992 7,964 10,080 2,259 435 1,824 5,705 1,995

1993 8,907 10,943 2,416 446 1,971 6,491 2,241

1994 9,850 11,789 2,550 457 2,093 7,300 2,556

1995 10,827 12,608 2,689 474 2,215 8,138 3,012

1996 12,020 13,619 2,855 480 2,375 9,165 3,049

1997 13,364 14,744 2,843 157 2,685 10,521 3,428

1998 14,348 15,576 2,650 152 2,498 11,698 3,585

1999 15,901 16,939 2,482 113 2,368 13,421 4,039

2000 17,854 18,429 2,593 165 2,428 15,261 4,526

2001 18,958 18,958 2,592 332 2,259 16,366 4,835

Note: Not all states report current child support collections in all years. Constant dollar adjustments to the 2000 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year average price index. Data for fiscal years 1999 and thereafter relating to the Federal and State share of TANF collections include assistance reimbursement for former TANF families. These data may not be exactly comparable to that of previous years due to changes in data reporting categories.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Child Support Collections: 2002 TANF Report to Congress (and earlier years), Washington, DC.

Table ECON 7.
Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D
Child Support Collections:1978-2001
Fiscal Year	Total Collections (in millions)	Total IV-D Administrative Expenditures
Total	AFDC/TANF Collections
Current Dollars	Constant '00 Dollars	Total	Payments to AFDC/TANF Families	Federal & State Share of Collections	Non- AFDC/TANF Collections
1978	$1,047	$2,788	$472	$13	$459	$575	$312
1979	1,333	3,259	597	12	584	736	383
1980	1,478	3,240	603	10	593	874	466
1981	1,629	3,252	671	12	659	958	526
1982	1,771	3,301	786	15	771	985	612
1983	2,024	3,623	880	15	865	1,144	691
1984	2,378	4,078	1,000	17	983	1,378	723
1985	2,694	4,455	1,090	189	901	1,604	814
1986	3,249	5,234	1,225	275	955	2,019	941
1987	3,917	6,144	1,349	278	1,070	2,569	1,066
1988	4,605	6,951	1,486	289	1,188	3,128	1,171
1989	5,241	7,536	1,593	307	1,286	3,648	1,363
1990	6,010	8,233	1,750	334	1,416	4,260	1,606
1991	6,886	8,979	1,984	381	1,603	4,902	1,804
1992	7,964	10,080	2,259	435	1,824	5,705	1,995
1993	8,907	10,943	2,416	446	1,971	6,491	2,241
1994	9,850	11,789	2,550	457	2,093	7,300	2,556
1995	10,827	12,608	2,689	474	2,215	8,138	3,012
1996	12,020	13,619	2,855	480	2,375	9,165	3,049
1997	13,364	14,744	2,843	157	2,685	10,521	3,428
1998	14,348	15,576	2,650	152	2,498	11,698	3,585
1999	15,901	16,939	2,482	113	2,368	13,421	4,039
2000	17,854	18,429	2,593	165	2,428	15,261	4,526
2001	18,958	18,958	2,592	332	2,259	16,366	4,835
Note: Not all states report current child support collections in all years. Constant dollar adjustments to the 2000 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year average price index. Data for fiscal years 1999 and thereafter relating to the Federal and State share of TANF collections include assistance reimbursement for former TANF families. These data may not be exactly comparable to that of previous years due to changes in data reporting categories. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Child Support Collections: 2002 TANF Report to Congress (and earlier years), Washington, DC.

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Economic Security Risk Factor 8. Food Insecurity

A large majority (89 percent) of American households was food secure in 2001 - that is, showed little or no evidence of concern about food supply or reduction in food intake.
The prevalence of food insecurity with hunger in 2001 was estimated to be 3.3 percent. During the twelve months ending in December 2001, one or more members of these households experienced reduced food intake and hunger as a result of financial constraints. Food insecurity would be lower measured over a monthly basis.
An additional 7 percent of households experienced food insecurity, but were without hunger, during the twelve months ending in December 2001. Although these households showed signs of food insecurity in their concerns and in adjustments to household food management, little or no reduction in food intake was reported.
Poor households have a higher rate of food insecurity with hunger (12.9 percent) than the 3.3 percent rate among the general population, as shown in Table ECON 8a. Only 1.3 percent of families with incomes at or above 185 percent of the poverty level showed evidence of food insecurity with hunger.
Changes in survey administration must be taken into account when assessing time trends. In general, there was a downward trend in food insecurity with hunger from 1995-1999, followed by a slight increase between 1999-2001. Higher food insecurity in even years may reflect seasonal differences in data collection between odd and even years.

Table ECON 8a.
Percentage of Households Classified by Food Security Status and Selected Characteristics: 2001
Food Secure Food Insecure Total Food Insecure Without Hunger Food Insecure With Hunger

All Households 89.3 10.7 7.4 3.3

Racial/Ethnic Categories

Non-Hispanic White 92.4 7.6 5.1 2.5

Non-Hispanic Black 78.7 21.3 15.1 6.2

Hispanic 78.2 21.8 16.4 5.4

Other Non-Hispanic 89.7 10.3 7.6 2.8

Households, by Age

Households with Children Under 6 82.6 17.4 13.7 3.8

Households with Children Under 18 83.9 16.1 12.4 3.8

Households with Elderly 94.5 5.5 4.0 1.5

Household Income-to-Poverty Ratio

Under 1.00 63.5 36.5 23.6 12.9

Under 1.30 67.7 32.3 21.3 10.9

Under 1.85 72.1 27.9 18.9 8.9

1.85 and over 95.1 4.9 3.6 1.3

See below for notes and source.

Table ECON 8a.
Percentage of Households Classified by Food Security Status and Selected Characteristics: 2001
	Food Secure	Food Insecure Total	Food Insecure Without Hunger	Food Insecure With Hunger
All Households	89.3	10.7	7.4	3.3
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White	92.4	7.6	5.1	2.5
Non-Hispanic Black	78.7	21.3	15.1	6.2
Hispanic	78.2	21.8	16.4	5.4
Other Non-Hispanic	89.7	10.3	7.6	2.8
Households, by Age
Households with Children Under 6	82.6	17.4	13.7	3.8
Households with Children Under 18	83.9	16.1	12.4	3.8
Households with Elderly	94.5	5.5	4.0	1.5
Household Income-to-Poverty Ratio
Under 1.00	63.5	36.5	23.6	12.9
Under 1.30	67.7	32.3	21.3	10.9
Under 1.85	72.1	27.9	18.9	8.9
1.85 and over	95.1	4.9	3.6	1.3
See below for notes and source.

Table ECON 8b.
Percentage of Households Classified by Food Security Status: 1995-2001
Food Secure Food Insecure Total Food Insecure Without Hunger Food Insecure With Hunger

Old Series

1995 89.7 10.3 6.4 3.9

1996 89.6 10.4 6.3 4.1

1997 91.3 8.7 5.6 3.1

1998 89.8 10.2 6.6 3.6

1999 91.3 8.7 5.9 2.8

New Series

1998 88.2 11.8 8.1 3.7

1999 89.9 10.1 7.1 3.0

2000 89.5 10.5 7.3 3.1

2001 89.3 10.7 7.4 3.3

Note: Food secure households show little or no evidence of concern about food supply or reduction in food intake.
Households classified as food insecure without hunger report food-related concerns, adjustments to household food management, and reduced variety and desirability of diet, but report little or no reduction in food intake. Households classified as food insecure with hunger report recurring reductions in food intake or hunger by one or more persons in the household. Because of changes in survey administration, food insecurity statistics in Table ECON 8b are shown in two separate series. The "new series" provides the best estimates of food security for 1998-2001; in the "old series" (1995-1999), data for 1998 and 1999 were adjusted to be comparable to 1995-1997.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Household Food Security in the United States, 2001.

Table ECON 8b.
Percentage of Households Classified by Food Security Status: 1995-2001
	Food Secure	Food Insecure Total	Food Insecure Without Hunger	Food Insecure With Hunger
Old Series
1995	89.7	10.3	6.4	3.9
1996	89.6	10.4	6.3	4.1
1997	91.3	8.7	5.6	3.1
1998	89.8	10.2	6.6	3.6
1999	91.3	8.7	5.9	2.8
New Series
1998	88.2	11.8	8.1	3.7
1999	89.9	10.1	7.1	3.0
2000	89.5	10.5	7.3	3.1
2001	89.3	10.7	7.4	3.3
Note: Food secure households show little or no evidence of concern about food supply or reduction in food intake. Households classified as food insecure without hunger report food-related concerns, adjustments to household food management, and reduced variety and desirability of diet, but report little or no reduction in food intake. Households classified as food insecure with hunger report recurring reductions in food intake or hunger by one or more persons in the household. Because of changes in survey administration, food insecurity statistics in Table ECON 8b are shown in two separate series. The "new series" provides the best estimates of food security for 1998-2001; in the "old series" (1995-1999), data for 1998 and 1999 were adjusted to be comparable to 1995-1997. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Household Food Security in the United States, 2001.

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Economic Security Risk Factor 9. Lack of Health Insurance

Poor persons were more than twice as likely as all persons to be without health insurance in 2001 (30 percent compared to 14 percent). While the ratio varied across categories, persons with family income at or below the poverty line were more likely to be without health insurance regardless of race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, or age.
Hispanics were the ethnic group least likely to have health insurance in 2001, among both the general population and those with incomes below the poverty line. While white individuals in general were more likely to have insurance than black individuals, poor black individuals were more likely to have insurance than poor white individuals.
Among all persons, the amount of education was inversely related to health insurance coverage, as shown in Table ECON 9. However, among poor persons, educational attainment made little difference as to whether individuals had health insurance.
As shown in Table ECON 9, individuals ages 18 to 34 are the most likely to be without health insurance, among both the general population and the poor population. Nearly half of all 18 to 34 year-olds with incomes below the poverty line had no health insurance in 2001.

Table ECON 9.
Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance, by Income and Selected Characteristics: 2001
All Persons Poor Persons

All Persons 14.6 30.7

Male 15.8 33.9

Female 13.5 28.2

White 13.6 31.7

Black 19.0 26.2

Hispanic 33.2 43.7

No H.S. Diploma 27.6 37.2

H.S. Graduate, no college 17.4 35.9

College Graduate 7.3 31.3

Age 18 and under 11.7 21.3

Ages 18-24 28.1 45.5

Ages 25-34 23.4 49.5

Ages 35-44 16.1 44.6

Ages 45-64 13.1 31.9

Age 65 and over 0.8 2.7

Note: "Poor persons" are defined as those with total family incomes at or below the poverty rate. Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Racial categories include Hispanics.
Source: Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Health Insurance Coverage: 2001," Current Population Reports, Series P60-220 (March 2002 Current Population Survey). Online: Available at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/hlthin01.html.

Table ECON 9.
Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance, by Income and Selected Characteristics: 2001
	All Persons	Poor Persons
All Persons	14.6	30.7
Male	15.8	33.9
Female	13.5	28.2
White	13.6	31.7
Black	19.0	26.2
Hispanic	33.2	43.7
No H.S. Diploma	27.6	37.2
H.S. Graduate, no college	17.4	35.9
College Graduate	7.3	31.3
Age 18 and under	11.7	21.3
Ages 18-24	28.1	45.5
Ages 25-34	23.4	49.5
Ages 35-44	16.1	44.6
Ages 45-64	13.1	31.9
Age 65 and over	0.8	2.7
Note: "Poor persons" are defined as those with total family incomes at or below the poverty rate. Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race. Racial categories include Hispanics. Source: Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Health Insurance Coverage: 2001," Current Population Reports, Series P60-220 (March 2002 Current Population Survey). Online: Available at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/hlthin01.html.

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Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 1. Labor Force Attachment

In 2001, 72 percent of the total population lived in families with at least one person working on a full-time, full-year basis, as shown in Table WORK 1a. Full-time full-year work was slightly lower than in 2000, although generally still higher than during the 1990s, as shown in Table WORK 1b.
Overall, 14 percent of the population lived in families with no labor force participants and 14 percent lived in families with part-time and/or part-year labor force participants in 2001.
Persons of Hispanic origin were less likely than non-Hispanic whites or non-Hispanic blacks to live in families with no one in the labor force in 2001 (9 percent compared to 15 and 16 percent, respectively).
Working-age women in 2001 were more likely than working-age men to live in families with no one in the labor force (8 percent compared to 6 percent). Men were more likely than women to live in families with at least one full-time, full-year worker (80 percent compared to 76 percent).

Table WORK 1a.
Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2001
No one in LF During Year At least one in LF No one FT/FY At least one FT/FY worker

All Persons 13.9 14.3 71.7

Racial/Ethnic Categories

Non-Hispanic White 14.8 13.4 71.8

Non-Hispanic Black 16.0 17.8 66.2

Hispanic 9.3 15.5 75.3

Age Categories

Children Ages 0-5 5.0 15.9 79.1

Children Ages 6-10 5.6 14.6 79.8

Children Ages 11-15 5.7 13.1 81.2

Women Ages 16-64 8.3 15.3 76.4

Men Ages 16-64 6.4 13.3 80.3

Adults Age 65 and over 65.8 13.8 20.4

See below for notes and source.

Table WORK 1a.
Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2001
	No one in LF During Year	At least one in LF No one FT/FY	At least one FT/FY worker
All Persons	13.9	14.3	71.7
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White	14.8	13.4	71.8
Non-Hispanic Black	16.0	17.8	66.2
Hispanic	9.3	15.5	75.3
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5	5.0	15.9	79.1
Children Ages 6-10	5.6	14.6	79.8
Children Ages 11-15	5.7	13.1	81.2
Women Ages 16-64	8.3	15.3	76.4
Men Ages 16-64	6.4	13.3	80.3
Adults Age 65 and over	65.8	13.8	20.4
See below for notes and source.

Table WORK 1b.
Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants: 1990-2001
	No one in LF During Year	At least one in LF No one FT/FY	At least one FT/FY LF participant
1990	13.7	18.1	68.3
1991	14.3	18.7	67.0
1992	14.3	18.6	67.1
1993	14.2	18.6	67.3
1994	14.0	17.7	68.3
1995	13.8	17.0	69.2
1996	13.6	16.7	69.7
1997	13.5	16.3	70.2
1998	13.3	15.3	71.4
1999	13.1	14.6	72.3
2000	13.1	13.9	73.0
2001	13.9	14.3	71.7
Note: Full-time, full-year workers are defined as those who usually worked for 35 or more hours per week, for at least 50 weeks in a given year. Part-time and part-year labor force participation includes part-time workers and individuals who are unemployed, laid off, and/or looking for work for part or all of the year. This indicator represents annual measures of labor force participation, and thus cannot be compared to monthly measures of labor force participation in Indicator 2. Source: Unpublished tabulations of March CPS data.

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Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 2. Employment Among the Low-Skilled

Employment rates for women with a high school education or less dropped in 2001, following several years of rising employment, particularly among black and Hispanic women. Low-skilled white women continued to have the highest employment level (67 percent in 2001) among the three racial/ethnic groups.
Employment levels for white and Hispanic men with no more than a high school education have hovered close to 85 percent for close to two decades. In contrast, employment levels for low-skilled black men have varied over the same period. Between 1968 and 1983, employment rates for black men with no more than high school education fell by 20 percentage points. Since 1992, these rates have remained fairly stable at around 71 percent.
As shown in Figure and Table WORK 2, employment levels for black men with a high school education or less were 6 percentage points higher than those of similarly educated black women in 2001. In contrast, there was a 17 percentage point difference in employment levels of white men and white women with a high school education or less, and a 26 percentage point difference between similarly educated Hispanic men and Hispanic women.

Table WORK 2.
Percentage of All Persons Ages 18 to 65 with No More than a High School Education
Who Were Employed at Any Time: 1969-2001
Men Women

White Black Hispanic White Black Hispanic

1968 92.8 89.9 N/A 55.8 65.8 N/A

1969 92.1 89.2 N/A 56.1 64.9 N/A

1971 90.9 86.1 N/A 55.2 59.4 N/A

1972 91.1 84.3 N/A 55.6 58.1 N/A

1975 88.2 78.8 86.2 58.3 57.2 49.7

1977 88.3 78.6 89.8 59.8 57.4 51.4

1979 88.6 78.5 89.4 62.3 58.7 55.0

1980 88.0 75.3 87.4 62.3 57.4 53.0

1981 87.3 74.4 87.9 62.3 57.7 52.1

1982 85.4 71.3 85.4 60.7 56.2 50.6

1983 84.8 69.9 84.6 61.4 55.3 50.8

1984 86.1 71.6 83.9 62.9 58.4 53.1

1985 85.7 74.5 84.1 63.7 59.4 52.4

1986 86.3 74.2 86.7 64.4 60.3 53.0

1987 86.6 73.9 85.6 65.8 59.9 54.0

1988 86.5 74.1 87.8 66.4 61.3 54.6

1989 86.6 74.0 86.2 67.2 60.9 55.8

1990 87.4 75.6 85.4 66.8 60.4 55.0

1991 86.2 73.9 85.0 66.5 60.7 54.6

1992 85.5 71.4 83.7 65.9 57.8 53.3

1993 84.4 71.1 83.5 66.1 59.9 52.2

1994 84.7 69.3 83.2 66.6 60.7 53.3

1995 85.5 70.2 83.3 67.0 59.7 53.9

1996 85.6 70.0 84.0 67.7 63.6 55.4

1997 85.3 71.8 85.0 67.7 66.1 56.9

1998 85.4 71.9 85.5 67.9 66.8 57.1

1999 85.0 72.2 86.4 68.9 68.3 58.8

2000 85.1 72.9 86.5 68.6 67.4 61.0

2001 83.9 70.6 85.5 67.4 64.6 59.2

Note: All data include both full and partial year employment for the given calendar year. Race categories include those of Hispanic origin for all years. Hispanic origin was not available until 1975.
Source: ASPE tabulations of March CPS data.

Table WORK 2.
Percentage of All Persons Ages 18 to 65 with No More than a High School Education
Who Were Employed at Any Time: 1969-2001
	Men	Women
White	Black	Hispanic	White	Black	Hispanic
1968	92.8	89.9	N/A	55.8	65.8	N/A
1969	92.1	89.2	N/A	56.1	64.9	N/A
1971	90.9	86.1	N/A	55.2	59.4	N/A
1972	91.1	84.3	N/A	55.6	58.1	N/A
1975	88.2	78.8	86.2	58.3	57.2	49.7
1977	88.3	78.6	89.8	59.8	57.4	51.4
1979	88.6	78.5	89.4	62.3	58.7	55.0
1980	88.0	75.3	87.4	62.3	57.4	53.0
1981	87.3	74.4	87.9	62.3	57.7	52.1
1982	85.4	71.3	85.4	60.7	56.2	50.6
1983	84.8	69.9	84.6	61.4	55.3	50.8
1984	86.1	71.6	83.9	62.9	58.4	53.1
1985	85.7	74.5	84.1	63.7	59.4	52.4
1986	86.3	74.2	86.7	64.4	60.3	53.0
1987	86.6	73.9	85.6	65.8	59.9	54.0
1988	86.5	74.1	87.8	66.4	61.3	54.6
1989	86.6	74.0	86.2	67.2	60.9	55.8
1990	87.4	75.6	85.4	66.8	60.4	55.0
1991	86.2	73.9	85.0	66.5	60.7	54.6
1992	85.5	71.4	83.7	65.9	57.8	53.3
1993	84.4	71.1	83.5	66.1	59.9	52.2
1994	84.7	69.3	83.2	66.6	60.7	53.3
1995	85.5	70.2	83.3	67.0	59.7	53.9
1996	85.6	70.0	84.0	67.7	63.6	55.4
1997	85.3	71.8	85.0	67.7	66.1	56.9
1998	85.4	71.9	85.5	67.9	66.8	57.1
1999	85.0	72.2	86.4	68.9	68.3	58.8
2000	85.1	72.9	86.5	68.6	67.4	61.0
2001	83.9	70.6	85.5	67.4	64.6	59.2
Note: All data include both full and partial year employment for the given calendar year. Race categories include those of Hispanic origin for all years. Hispanic origin was not available until 1975. Source: ASPE tabulations of March CPS data.

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Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 3. Earnings of Low-Skilled Workers

Mean weekly wages for full-time work by men with no more than a high school diploma have decreased in real terms for much of the past quarter century, with some recovery in the late 1990s. In 2001, the mean weekly wage for low-skilled men working full-time was $660. This level is 4 percent above the 1995 weekly wages of $635 (in 2001 dollars), but 12 percent below the 1970 level of $747 (in 2001 dollars).
The gap between mean weekly wages for white and black men with low education levels has narrowed significantly over time, but expanded slightly in 2000 and 2001. In 1970, the mean weekly wage for low-skilled black men working full-time was $544 (in 2001 dollars), or 70 percent of the $773 average for white men. However, full-time working black men with no more than a high school education received 83 percent of the mean weekly wages of white men in 2001 ($560 compared to $677).

Table WORK 3:
Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full-Time,
Full-Year with No More than a High-School Education, by Race (2001 Dollars): Selected Years
	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
All Men	$747	$746	$712	$688	$643	$635	$646	$658	$646	$658	$669	$660
White Men	$773	$765	$732	$709	$661	$653	$664	$676	$662	$673	$686	$677
Black Men	$544	$587	$553	$539	$531	$524	$544	$545	$552	$589	$581	$560
Note: Full-time, full-year workers work at least 48 weeks per year and 35 hours per week. White and black include those of Hispanic origin for all years. Source: ASPE tabulations of March CPS data.

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Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 4. Educational Attainment

There has been a marked decline over the past 40 years in the percentage of the population who has not earned a high school diploma. This percentage fell from 59 percent in 1960 to 16 percent in 2001.
The percentage of the population receiving a high school education only (with no subsequent college) was 25 percent in 1960 and rose to 39 percent in 1988. Since then this figure has fallen to 33 percent, although some of this decline is a result of a change in the survey methodology in 1992 (see note to Table WORK 4).
Between 1960 and 1990, the percentage of the population with some college (one to three years) doubled, from 9 percent to 18 percent. The apparent jump in 1992 is a result of a change in the survey methodology (see note to Table WORK 4), but the trend continued upward, reaching nearly 26 percent in 2001.
The percentage of the population completing four or more years of college more than tripled from 1960 to 2001, rising steadily from 8 percent to 26 percent.

Table WORK 4.
Percentage of Adults Age 25 and Over,
by Level of Educational Attainment: Selected Years
Not a High
School Graduate Finished High School,
No College One to Three
Years of College Four or More
Years of College

1940 76 14 5 5

1950 67 20 7 6

1960 59 25 9 8

1965 51 31 9 9

1970 45 34 10 11

1975 37 36 12 14

1980 31 37 15 17

1981 30 38 15 17

1982 29 38 15 18

1983 28 38 16 19

1984 27 38 16 19

1985 26 38 16 19

1986 25 38 17 19

1987 24 39 17 20

1988 24 39 17 20

1989 23 38 17 21

1990 22 38 18 21

1991 22 39 18 21

1992 21 36 22 21

1993 20 35 23 22

1994 19 34 24 22

1995 18 34 25 23

1996 18 34 25 24

1997 18 34 24 24

1998 17 34 25 24

1999 17 33 25 25

2000 16 33 25 26

2001 16 33 26 26

Note: Completing the GED is not considered completing high school for this table. Beginning with data for 1992, a new survey question results in different categories than for prior years. Data shown as Finished High School, No College was previously from the category "High School, 4 years" and is now from the category "High School Graduate." Data shown as One to Three Years of College was previously from the category "College 1 to 3 years" and is now the sum of the categories: "Some College" and two separate "Associate Degree" categories. Data shown as Four or More Years of College was previously from the category "College 4 years or more," and is now the sum of the categories: "Bachelor's Degree," "Master's Degree," "Doctorate Degree," and "Professional Degree."
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Educational Attainment in the United States: March 2001," Current Population Reports, Series PPL-157, February 2002, and earlier reports.

Table WORK 4.
Percentage of Adults Age 25 and Over,
by Level of Educational Attainment: Selected Years
	Not a High School Graduate	Finished High School, No College	One to Three Years of College	Four or More Years of College
1940	76	14	5	5
1950	67	20	7	6
1960	59	25	9	8
1965	51	31	9	9
1970	45	34	10	11
1975	37	36	12	14
1980	31	37	15	17
1981	30	38	15	17
1982	29	38	15	18
1983	28	38	16	19
1984	27	38	16	19
1985	26	38	16	19
1986	25	38	17	19
1987	24	39	17	20
1988	24	39	17	20
1989	23	38	17	21
1990	22	38	18	21
1991	22	39	18	21
1992	21	36	22	21
1993	20	35	23	22
1994	19	34	24	22
1995	18	34	25	23
1996	18	34	25	24
1997	18	34	24	24
1998	17	34	25	24
1999	17	33	25	25
2000	16	33	25	26
2001	16	33	26	26
Note: Completing the GED is not considered completing high school for this table. Beginning with data for 1992, a new survey question results in different categories than for prior years. Data shown as Finished High School, No College was previously from the category "High School, 4 years" and is now from the category "High School Graduate." Data shown as One to Three Years of College was previously from the category "College 1 to 3 years" and is now the sum of the categories: "Some College" and two separate "Associate Degree" categories. Data shown as Four or More Years of College was previously from the category "College 4 years or more," and is now the sum of the categories: "Bachelor's Degree," "Master's Degree," "Doctorate Degree," and "Professional Degree." Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Educational Attainment in the United States: March 2001," Current Population Reports, Series PPL-157, February 2002, and earlier reports.

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Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 5. High School Dropout Rates

With the exception of a small upward movement in 1988, the dropout rates for teens in grades 10 to 12 declined steadily from 1979 to 1991. From a low of 4.0 percent, the rate began rising to a peak of 5.7 percent in 1995. Following this upturn, the overall rate again declined to 4.6 percent in 1997; since then it has fluctuated, moving up to 5.0 percent in 1999 and then back down again to 4.8 percent in 2000.
Dropout rates among Hispanic and black teens have fluctuated considerably over time. Still, dropout rates are generally highest for Hispanic teens and lowest for white teens. In 2000, the dropout rate was 7.4 percent for Hispanic teens, compared to 6.1 percent for black teens and 4.1 percent for white teens.

Table WORK 5.
Percentage of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the Previous Year
Who Were Not Enrolled and Had Not Graduated in the Survey Year,
by Race/Ethnicity: Selected Years
Total Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic Origin

1972 6.1 5.3 9.5 11.2

1973 6.3 5.5 9.9 10.0

1974 6.7 5.8 11.6 9.9

1975 5.8 5.0 8.7 10.9

1976 5.9 5.6 7.4 7.3

1977 6.5 6.1 8.6 7.8

1978 6.7 5.8 10.2 12.3

1979 6.7 6.0 9.9 9.8

1980 6.1 5.2 8.2 11.7

1981 5.9 4.8 9.7 10.7

1982 5.5 4.7 7.8 9.2

1983 5.2 4.4 7.0 10.1

1984 5.1 4.4 5.7 11.1

1985 5.2 4.3 7.8 9.8

1986 4.7 3.7 5.4 11.9

1987 4.1 3.5 6.4 5.4

1988 4.8 4.2 5.9 10.4

1989 4.5 3.5 7.8 7.8

1990 4.0 3.3 5.0 7.9

1991 4.0 3.2 6.0 7.3

1992 4.4 3.7 5.0 8.2

1993 4.5 3.9 5.8 6.7

1994 5.3 4.2 6.6 10.0

1995 5.7 4.5 6.4 12.3

1996 5.0 4.1 6.7 9.0

1997 4.6 3.6 5.0 9.5

1998 4.8 3.9 5.2 9.4

1999 5.0 4.0 6.5 7.8

2000 4.8 4.1 6.1 7.4

Note: Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives and Asian/Pacific Islanders are included in the total but are not shown separately. Beginning in 1987, the Bureau of the Census instituted new editing procedures for cases with missing data on school enrollment. Beginning in 1992, the data reflect new wording of the educational attainment item in the CPS.
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States: 2000 and earlier years (based on Current Population Survey data from the October supplement).

Table WORK 5.
Percentage of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the Previous Year
Who Were Not Enrolled and Had Not Graduated in the Survey Year,
by Race/Ethnicity: Selected Years
	Total	Non-Hispanic White	Non-Hispanic Black	Hispanic Origin
1972	6.1	5.3	9.5	11.2
1973	6.3	5.5	9.9	10.0
1974	6.7	5.8	11.6	9.9
1975	5.8	5.0	8.7	10.9
1976	5.9	5.6	7.4	7.3
1977	6.5	6.1	8.6	7.8
1978	6.7	5.8	10.2	12.3
1979	6.7	6.0	9.9	9.8
1980	6.1	5.2	8.2	11.7
1981	5.9	4.8	9.7	10.7
1982	5.5	4.7	7.8	9.2
1983	5.2	4.4	7.0	10.1
1984	5.1	4.4	5.7	11.1
1985	5.2	4.3	7.8	9.8
1986	4.7	3.7	5.4	11.9
1987	4.1	3.5	6.4	5.4
1988	4.8	4.2	5.9	10.4
1989	4.5	3.5	7.8	7.8
1990	4.0	3.3	5.0	7.9
1991	4.0	3.2	6.0	7.3
1992	4.4	3.7	5.0	8.2
1993	4.5	3.9	5.8	6.7
1994	5.3	4.2	6.6	10.0
1995	5.7	4.5	6.4	12.3
1996	5.0	4.1	6.7	9.0
1997	4.6	3.6	5.0	9.5
1998	4.8	3.9	5.2	9.4
1999	5.0	4.0	6.5	7.8
2000	4.8	4.1	6.1	7.4
Note: Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives and Asian/Pacific Islanders are included in the total but are not shown separately. Beginning in 1987, the Bureau of the Census instituted new editing procedures for cases with missing data on school enrollment. Beginning in 1992, the data reflect new wording of the educational attainment item in the CPS. Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States: 2000 and earlier years (based on Current Population Survey data from the October supplement).

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Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 6. Adult Alcohol and Substance Abuse

Figure WORK 6. Percentage of Adults Who Used Cocaine or Marijuana or Abused Alcohol, by Age: 2001.

In 2001, young adults (ages 18 to 25) were more likely than older adults to report alcohol abuse, marijuana use, or cocaine use in the past month. More than one in seven (16 percent) of adults 18 to 25 reported using marijuana in the past month during 2001, compared with 7 percent of adults 26 to 34 and 2 percent of adults 35 and older. Young adults were also significantly more likely to abuse alcohol than older adults.
The percentage of persons reporting binge alcohol use was significantly larger than the percentages for all other reported behaviors across all age groups, as shown in Table WORK 6.

Table WORK 6.
Percentage of Adults Who Used Cocaine or Marijuana or Abused Alcohol,
by Age: 1999, 2000, and 2001
1999 2000 2001

Cocaine

Ages 18-25 1.7 1.4 1.9

Ages 26-34 1.2 0.8 1.1

Age 35 and Over 0.4 0.3 0.5

Marijuana

Ages 18-25 14.2 13.6 16.0

Ages 26-34 5.4 5.9 6.8

Age 35 and Over 2.2 2.3 2.4

Binge Alcohol Use

Ages 18-25 37.9 37.8 38.7

Ages 26-34 29.3 30.3 30.1

Age 35 and Over 16.0 16.4 16.2

Heavy Alcohol Use

Ages 18-25 13.3 12.8 13.6

Ages 26-34 7.5 7.6 7.8

Age 35 and Over 4.2 4.1 4.2

Note: Cocaine and marijuana use is defined as use during the past month. "Binge" Alcohol Use is defined as drinking five or more drinks on the same occasion on at least one day in the past 30 days. "Occasion" means at the same time or within a couple hours of each other. Heavy Alcohol Use is defined as drinking five or more drinks on the same occasion on each of five or more days in the past 30 days; all Heavy Alcohol Users are also "Binge" Alcohol Users. Due to a change in NHSDA methodology in 1999, the 1999-2001 estimates cannot be compared to estimates from 1998 and earlier years for trend purposes.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

Table WORK 6.
Percentage of Adults Who Used Cocaine or Marijuana or Abused Alcohol,
by Age: 1999, 2000, and 2001
	1999	2000	2001
Cocaine
Ages 18-25	1.7	1.4	1.9
Ages 26-34	1.2	0.8	1.1
Age 35 and Over	0.4	0.3	0.5
Marijuana
Ages 18-25	14.2	13.6	16.0
Ages 26-34	5.4	5.9	6.8
Age 35 and Over	2.2	2.3	2.4
Binge Alcohol Use
Ages 18-25	37.9	37.8	38.7
Ages 26-34	29.3	30.3	30.1
Age 35 and Over	16.0	16.4	16.2
Heavy Alcohol Use
Ages 18-25	13.3	12.8	13.6
Ages 26-34	7.5	7.6	7.8
Age 35 and Over	4.2	4.1	4.2
Note: Cocaine and marijuana use is defined as use during the past month. "Binge" Alcohol Use is defined as drinking five or more drinks on the same occasion on at least one day in the past 30 days. "Occasion" means at the same time or within a couple hours of each other. Heavy Alcohol Use is defined as drinking five or more drinks on the same occasion on each of five or more days in the past 30 days; all Heavy Alcohol Users are also "Binge" Alcohol Users. Due to a change in NHSDA methodology in 1999, the 1999-2001 estimates cannot be compared to estimates from 1998 and earlier years for trend purposes. Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

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Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 7. Adult and Child Disability

In 2001, adults were more likely than children to have an activity limitation, 10.9 percent compared to 7.2 percent.
While adults were more likely than children to report an activity limitation, a higher percentage of children than adults were actually recipients of disability program benefits in 2001 (5.9 percent compared to 4.1 percent), as shown in Table WORK 7.
Among both non-elderly adults and children, rates of activity limitation were very similar for non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic blacks in 2001, but lower for Hispanics, as shown in Table WORK 7.

Table WORK 7.
Percentage of the Non-Elderly Population Reporting a Disability,
by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2001
Activity
Limitation Work
Disability Long-Term
Care Needs Disability
Program
Recipient

All Persons

Adults Ages 18-64 10.9 8.3 2.0 4.1

Children Ages 0-17 7.2 N/A N/A 5.9

Racial/Ethnic Categories (Adults Ages 18-64)

Non-Hispanic White 11.3 8.5 1.9 4.0

Non-Hispanic Black 13.8 10.8 3.1 6.7

Hispanic 7.7 5.6 1.3 3.0

Racial/Ethnic Categories (Children Ages 0-17)

Non-Hispanic White 7.5 N/A N/A 6.2

Non-Hispanic Black 8.7 N/A N/A 7.1

Hispanic 5.1 N/A N/A 4.2

Note: Respondents were defined as having an activity limitation if they answered positively to any of the questions regarding: (1) work disability (see definition below); (2) long-term care needs (see definition below); (3) difficulty walking; (4) difficulty remembering; (5) for children under 5, limitations in the amount of play activities they can participate in because of physical, mental, or emotional problems; (6) for children 3 and over, receipt of Special Educational or Early Intervention Services; and, (7) any other limitations due to physical, mental, or emotional problems. Work disability is defined as limitations in or the inability to work as a result of a physical, mental or emotional health condition. Individuals are identified as having long-term care needs if they need the help of others in handling either personal care needs (eating, bathing, dressing, getting around the home) or routine needs (household chores, shopping, getting around for business or other purposes). Disability program recipients include persons covered by Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), Special Education Services, Early Intervention Services, and/or disability pensions.
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics,National Health Interview Survey

Table WORK 7.
Percentage of the Non-Elderly Population Reporting a Disability,
by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2001
	Activity Limitation	Work Disability	Long-Term Care Needs	Disability Program Recipient
All Persons
Adults Ages 18-64	10.9	8.3	2.0	4.1
Children Ages 0-17	7.2	N/A	N/A	5.9
Racial/Ethnic Categories (Adults Ages 18-64)
Non-Hispanic White	11.3	8.5	1.9	4.0
Non-Hispanic Black	13.8	10.8	3.1	6.7
Hispanic	7.7	5.6	1.3	3.0
Racial/Ethnic Categories (Children Ages 0-17)
Non-Hispanic White	7.5	N/A	N/A	6.2
Non-Hispanic Black	8.7	N/A	N/A	7.1
Hispanic	5.1	N/A	N/A	4.2
Note: Respondents were defined as having an activity limitation if they answered positively to any of the questions regarding: (1) work disability (see definition below); (2) long-term care needs (see definition below); (3) difficulty walking; (4) difficulty remembering; (5) for children under 5, limitations in the amount of play activities they can participate in because of physical, mental, or emotional problems; (6) for children 3 and over, receipt of Special Educational or Early Intervention Services; and, (7) any other limitations due to physical, mental, or emotional problems. Work disability is defined as limitations in or the inability to work as a result of a physical, mental or emotional health condition. Individuals are identified as having long-term care needs if they need the help of others in handling either personal care needs (eating, bathing, dressing, getting around the home) or routine needs (household chores, shopping, getting around for business or other purposes). Disability program recipients include persons covered by Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), Special Education Services, Early Intervention Services, and/or disability pensions. Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics,National Health Interview Survey

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Non-marital Birth Risk Factor 1. Births to Unmarried Women

The percentage of children born outside of marriage to women of all ages has increased over the past six decades, from 3.8 percent in 1940 to 33.5 percent in 2001. This increase reflects changes in several factors: the rate at which unmarried women have children, the rate at which married women have children, and the rate at which women marry.
The percentage of children born outside of marriage is especially high among teen women and women ages 20-24. Close to four-fifths (79 percent) of all births to teens and half (50 percent) of women ages 20-24 took place outside of marriage in 2001.
Since 1994, the percentage of unmarried births to all women has almost leveled off. The percentage of unmarried births to teen mothers has slowed since 1994, although it is still rising (from 76 percent in 1994 to 79 percent in 2001). The steepest growth since 1994 is among the 20 to 24 year old age group, where the percentage of births to unmarried women has increased from 45 to 50 percent.
Recently, the percentage of out-of-wedlock births has leveled off among black teens and all black women. Among white teens and all white women, the trend continues upward (see Table C-1 in Appendix C for non-marital birth data by age and race).

Table BIRTH 1.
Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women, by Age Group: 1940-2001
Year	Under 15	15-17 Years	18-19 Years	All Teens	20-24 Years	All Women
1940	64.5	N/A	N/A	14.0	3.4	3.8
1941	64.1	N/A	N/A	14.2	3.4	3.8
1942	64.5	N/A	N/A	13.2	3.0	3.4
1943	64.2	N/A	N/A	13.4	3.0	3.3
1944	64.5	N/A	N/A	15.7	3.7	3.8
1945	70.0	N/A	N/A	18.2	4.7	4.3
1946	66.4	N/A	N/A	15.7	4.0	3.8
1947	65.1	N/A	N/A	13.0	3.4	3.6
1948	61.4	20.8	8.5	12.7	3.4	3.7
1949	61.8	21.1	8.6	12.9	3.4	3.7
1950	63.7	22.6	9.4	13.9	3.7	4.0
1951	62.9	21.8	9.1	13.5	3.6	3.9
1952	63.6	22.8	9.2	14.0	3.7	3.9
1953	64.0	22.3	9.6	14.1	3.9	4.1
1954	64.4	23.2	10.1	14.7	4.2	4.4
1955	66.3	23.2	10.3	14.9	4.3	4.5
1956	66.1	23.0	10.0	14.6	4.4	4.6
1957	66.1	23.1	9.8	14.5	4.4	4.7
1958	66.2	23.3	10.3	14.9	4.5	5.0
1959	67.9	24.2	10.6	15.4	4.8	5.2
1960	67.8	24.0	10.7	15.4	4.8	5.3
1961	69.7	25.3	11.3	16.2	5.1	5.6
1962	69.5	26.7	11.3	16.4	5.4	5.9
1963	71.1	28.2	12.5	18.0	5.7	6.3
1964	74.2	29.9	13.5	19.7	6.1	6.8
1965	78.5	32.8	15.3	21.6	6.8	7.7
1966	76.3	35.3	16.1	22.6	7.1	8.4
1967	80.3	37.7	18.0	25.0	7.8	9.0
1968	81.0	40.4	20.1	27.6	8.3	9.7
1969	79.3	41.3	21.1	28.7	8.6	10.0
1970	80.8	43.0	22.4	30.5	8.9	10.7
1971	82.1	44.5	23.2	31.8	9.2	11.3
1972	81.9	45.9	24.7	33.8	10.2	12.4
1973	84.8	46.7	25.6	35.0	10.8	13.0
1974	84.6	48.3	27.0	36.4	11.1	13.2
1975	87.0	51.4	29.8	39.3	12.3	14.2
1976	86.4	54.1	31.6	41.2	13.3	14.8
1977	88.2	56.6	34.4	43.8	14.7	15.5
1978	87.3	57.5	36.2	44.9	16.4	16.3
1979	88.8	60.0	38.1	46.9	17.7	17.1
1980	88.7	61.5	39.8	48.3	19.3	18.4
1981	89.2	63.3	41.4	49.9	20.4	18.9
1982	89.2	65.0	43.0	51.4	21.3	19.4
1983	90.4	67.5	45.7	54.1	22.9	20.3
1984	91.1	69.2	48.1	56.3	24.5	21.0
1985	91.8	70.9	50.7	58.7	26.3	22.0
1986	92.5	73.3	53.6	61.5	28.7	23.4
1987	92.9	76.2	55.8	64.0	30.8	24.5
1988	93.6	77.1	58.5	65.9	32.9	25.7
1989	92.4	77.7	60.4	67.2	35.1	27.1
1990	91.6	77.7	61.3	67.6	36.9	28.0
1991	91.3	78.7	63.2	69.3	39.4	29.5
1992	91.3	79.2	64.6	70.5	40.7	30.1
1993	91.3	79.9	66.1	71.8	42.2	31.0
1994	94.5	84.1	70.0	75.9	44.9	32.6
1995	93.5	83.7	69.8	75.6	44.7	32.2
1996	93.8	84.4	70.8	76.3	45.6	32.4
1997	95.7	86.7	72.5	78.2	46.6	32.4
1998	96.6	87.5	73.6	78.9	47.7	32.8
1999	96.5	87.7	74.0	79.0	48.5	33.0
2000	96.5	87.7	74.3	79.1	49.5	33.2
2001	96.3	87.8	74.6	79.2	50.4	33.5
Note: Trends in non-marital births may be affected by changes in the reporting of marital status on birth certificates and in procedures for inferring non-marital births when marital status is not reported. Source: National Center for Health Statistics, "Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999," National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; "Births: Final Data for 2001," National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 51 (2), December 2002.

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Non-marital Birth Risk Factor 2. Births to Unmarried Teens

In contrast to the earlier Figure BIRTH 1, which showed births to unmarried teens as a percentage of all teen births, Figure BIRTH 2 shows births to unmarried teens as a percentage of births to all women. This percentage fell in the last three years, from 9.7 to 8.7 percent, reversing a long upward trend since 1940. This rate may be affected by several factors: the age distribution of women, the marriage rate among teens, the birth rate among unmarried teens, and the birth rate among all other women.
The percentage of all births that were to unmarried teens has also dropped among white women over the past four years, declining to 7.3 percent in 2001. This drop is in contrast to the long upward trend, from less than 1 percent in 1960 to nearly 8 percent in 1998.
Among black women, the percentage of all births that were to unmarried teens fell to 17.5 percent in 2001, the lowest percentage since 1969. This rate has varied greatly since 1940, rising sharply to a peak of 24 percent in 1975, and showing a gradual decline in most years since then. The sharp increase in the late 1960s and early 1970s reflects a 30 percent rise in non-marital teen births among black women concurrent with a 6 percent decline in total black births from 1969 to 1975.

Table BIRTH 2.
Percentage of All Births to Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 19, by Race: 1940-2001
Year All Races White Black

1940 1.7 0.8 N/A

1941 1.7 0.7 N/A

1942 1.5 0.7 N/A

1943 1.5 0.6 N/A

1944 1.6 0.8 N/A

1945 1.8 0.8 N/A

1946 1.5 0.7 N/A

1947 1.4 0.7 N/A

1948 1.5 0.7 N/A

1949 1.5 0.6 N/A

1950 1.6 0.6 N/A

1951 1.5 0.6 N/A

1952 1.5 0.6 N/A

1953 1.6 0.6 N/A

1954 1.7 0.7 N/A

1955 1.7 0.7 N/A

1956 1.7 0.7 N/A

1957 1.8 0.7 N/A

1958 1.9 0.8 N/A

1959 2.0 0.9 N/A

1960 2.0 0.9 N/A

1961 2.2 1.0 N/A

1962 2.3 1.1 N/A

1963 2.5 1.2 N/A

1964 2.8 1.3 N/A

1965 3.3 1.6 N/A

1966 3.8 1.9 N/A

1967 4.1 2.1 N/A

1968 4.5 2.3 N/A

1969 4.7 2.4 17.5

1970 5.1 2.6 18.8

1971 5.5 2.6 20.3

1972 6.2 3.0 22.6

1973 6.5 3.2 23.4

1974 6.7 3.3 23.9

1975 7.1 3.7 24.2

1976 7.1 3.8 23.8

1977 7.2 4.0 23.4

1978 7.2 4.0 22.7

1979 7.2 4.1 22.5

1980 7.3 4.4 22.2

1981 7.1 4.5 21.5

1982 7.1 4.5 21.2

1983 7.2 4.6 21.2

1984 7.1 4.6 20.7

1985 7.2 4.8 20.3

1986 7.5 5.1 20.1

1987 7.7 5.3 20.0

1988 8.0 5.6 20.3

1989 8.3 5.9 20.6

1990 8.4 6.1 20.4

1991 8.7 6.4 20.4

1992 8.7 6.5 20.2

1993 8.9 6.8 20.2

1994 9.7 7.5 21.1

1995 9.6 7.6 21.1

1996 9.6 7.7 20.9

1997 9.7 7.8 20.5

1998 9.7 7.9 19.9

1999 9.5 7.8 19.1

2000 9.1 7.6 18.3

2001 8.7 7.3 17.5

Note: Trends in non-marital births may be affected by changes in the reporting of marital status on birth certificates and in procedures for inferring non-marital births when marital status is not reported. Beginning in 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the mother. Prior to 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the child. White and black include those of Hispanic origin for all years. Rates for 1981-1989 have been revised and differ, therefore, from rates published in Vital Statistics in the United States, Vol. 1, Natality, for 1991 and earlier years.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, "Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999," National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; "Births: Final Data for 2001," National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 51 (2), December 2002.

Table BIRTH 2.
Percentage of All Births to Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 19, by Race: 1940-2001
Year	All Races	White	Black
1940	1.7	0.8	N/A
1941	1.7	0.7	N/A
1942	1.5	0.7	N/A
1943	1.5	0.6	N/A
1944	1.6	0.8	N/A
1945	1.8	0.8	N/A
1946	1.5	0.7	N/A
1947	1.4	0.7	N/A
1948	1.5	0.7	N/A
1949	1.5	0.6	N/A
1950	1.6	0.6	N/A
1951	1.5	0.6	N/A
1952	1.5	0.6	N/A
1953	1.6	0.6	N/A
1954	1.7	0.7	N/A
1955	1.7	0.7	N/A
1956	1.7	0.7	N/A
1957	1.8	0.7	N/A
1958	1.9	0.8	N/A
1959	2.0	0.9	N/A
1960	2.0	0.9	N/A
1961	2.2	1.0	N/A
1962	2.3	1.1	N/A
1963	2.5	1.2	N/A
1964	2.8	1.3	N/A
1965	3.3	1.6	N/A
1966	3.8	1.9	N/A
1967	4.1	2.1	N/A
1968	4.5	2.3	N/A
1969	4.7	2.4	17.5
1970	5.1	2.6	18.8
1971	5.5	2.6	20.3
1972	6.2	3.0	22.6
1973	6.5	3.2	23.4
1974	6.7	3.3	23.9
1975	7.1	3.7	24.2
1976	7.1	3.8	23.8
1977	7.2	4.0	23.4
1978	7.2	4.0	22.7
1979	7.2	4.1	22.5
1980	7.3	4.4	22.2
1981	7.1	4.5	21.5
1982	7.1	4.5	21.2
1983	7.2	4.6	21.2
1984	7.1	4.6	20.7
1985	7.2	4.8	20.3
1986	7.5	5.1	20.1
1987	7.7	5.3	20.0
1988	8.0	5.6	20.3
1989	8.3	5.9	20.6
1990	8.4	6.1	20.4
1991	8.7	6.4	20.4
1992	8.7	6.5	20.2
1993	8.9	6.8	20.2
1994	9.7	7.5	21.1
1995	9.6	7.6	21.1
1996	9.6	7.7	20.9
1997	9.7	7.8	20.5
1998	9.7	7.9	19.9
1999	9.5	7.8	19.1
2000	9.1	7.6	18.3
2001	8.7	7.3	17.5
Note: Trends in non-marital births may be affected by changes in the reporting of marital status on birth certificates and in procedures for inferring non-marital births when marital status is not reported. Beginning in 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the mother. Prior to 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the child. White and black include those of Hispanic origin for all years. Rates for 1981-1989 have been revised and differ, therefore, from rates published in Vital Statistics in the United States, Vol. 1, Natality, for 1991 and earlier years. Source: National Center for Health Statistics, "Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999," National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; "Births: Final Data for 2001," National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 51 (2), December 2002.

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Non-marital Birth Risk Factor 3. Unmarried Teen Birth Rates within Age Groups

The birth rate per 1,000 unmarried teens fell between 1994 and 2001 for both black and white teens and for both younger (15 to 17 years) and older age groups (18 and 19 years). The rate for black teens 18 and 19, for example, fell from 142 per 1,000 to 109 per 1,000. Declines were larger among black teens than among white teens.
Prior to 1994, birth rates among unmarried white teens in both age groups rose steadily for nearly three decades (4 to 24 percent among 15 to 17 year-olds and 11 to 56 percent among 18 and 19 year-olds).
Among unmarried black teens in both age groups, birth rates varied greatly over the period, reaching peaks in both the early 1970s and early 1990s. Rates for both age groups were lower in 2001 than in 1969. While birth rates among unmarried black teens remain high compared to rates for unmarried white teens, the gap been black and white teens narrowed considerably during the 1990s.

Table BIRTH 3.
Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teen Women within Age Groups, by Race: 1960-2001
Year Ages 15-17 Ages 18 and 19

All Races White Black All Races White Black

1960 11.1 4.4 N/A 24.3 11.4 N/A

1961 11.7 4.6 N/A 24.6 12.1 N/A

1962 10.7 4.1 N/A 23.8 11.7 N/A

1963 10.9 4.5 N/A 25.8 13.0 N/A

1964 11.6 4.9 N/A 26.5 13.6 N/A

1965 12.5 5.0 N/A 25.8 13.9 N/A

1966 13.1 5.4 N/A 25.6 14.1 N/A

1967 13.8 5.6 N/A 27.6 15.3 N/A

1968 14.7 6.2 N/A 29.6 16.6 N/A

1969 15.2 6.6 72.0 30.8 16.6 128.4

1970 17.1 7.5 77.9 32.9 17.6 136.4

1971 17.5 7.4 80.7 31.7 15.8 135.2

1972 18.5 8.0 82.8 30.9 15.1 128.2

1973 18.7 8.4 81.2 30.4 14.9 120.5

1974 18.8 8.8 78.6 31.2 15.3 122.2

1975 19.3 9.6 76.8 32.5 16.5 123.8

1976 19.0 9.7 73.5 32.1 16.9 117.9

1977 19.8 10.5 73.0 34.6 18.7 121.7

1978 19.1 10.3 68.8 35.1 19.3 119.6

1979 19.9 10.8 71.0 37.2 21.0 123.3

1980 20.6 12.0 68.8 39.0 24.1 118.2

1981 20.9 12.6 65.9 39.0 24.6 114.2

1982 21.5 13.1 66.3 39.6 25.3 112.7

1983 22.0 13.6 66.8 40.7 26.4 111.9

1984 21.9 13.7 66.5 42.5 27.9 113.6

1985 22.4 14.5 66.8 45.9 31.2 117.9

1986 22.8 14.9 67.0 48.0 33.5 121.1

1987 24.5 16.2 69.9 48.9 34.5 123.0

1988 26.4 17.6 73.5 51.5 36.8 130.5

1989 28.7 19.3 78.9 56.0 40.2 140.9

1990 29.6 20.4 78.8 60.7 44.9 143.7

1991 30.9 21.8 80.4 65.7 49.6 148.7

1992 30.4 21.6 78.0 67.3 51.5 147.8

1993 30.6 22.1 76.8 66.9 52.4 141.6

1994 32.0 24.1 75.1 70.1 56.4 141.6

1995 30.5 23.6 68.6 67.6 55.4 131.2

1996 29.0 22.7 64.0 65.9 54.1 129.2

1997 28.2 22.4 60.6 65.2 53.6 127.2

1998 27.0 21.8 56.5 64.2 53.5 123.5

1999 25.5 21.0 51.5 63.3 53.3 117.9

2000 24.4 20.0 49.9 62.9 53.2 116.9

2001 22.5 18.5 45.5 60.1 51.3 109.4

Note: Rates are per 1,000 unmarried women in specified group. Trends in non-marital births may be affected by changes in the reporting of marital status on birth certificates and in procedures for inferring non-marital births when marital status is not reported. Beginning in 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the mother. Prior to 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the child. White and black include those of Hispanic origin for all years. Rates for 1981-1989 have been revised and differ, therefore, from rates published in Vital Statistics in the United States, Vol. 1, Natality, for 1991 and earlier years.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, "Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999," National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; "Births: Final Data for 2001," National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 51 (2), December 2002.

Table BIRTH 3.
Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teen Women within Age Groups, by Race: 1960-2001
Year	Ages 15-17	Ages 18 and 19
All Races	White	Black	All Races	White	Black
1960	11.1	4.4	N/A	24.3	11.4	N/A
1961	11.7	4.6	N/A	24.6	12.1	N/A
1962	10.7	4.1	N/A	23.8	11.7	N/A
1963	10.9	4.5	N/A	25.8	13.0	N/A
1964	11.6	4.9	N/A	26.5	13.6	N/A
1965	12.5	5.0	N/A	25.8	13.9	N/A
1966	13.1	5.4	N/A	25.6	14.1	N/A
1967	13.8	5.6	N/A	27.6	15.3	N/A
1968	14.7	6.2	N/A	29.6	16.6	N/A
1969	15.2	6.6	72.0	30.8	16.6	128.4
1970	17.1	7.5	77.9	32.9	17.6	136.4
1971	17.5	7.4	80.7	31.7	15.8	135.2
1972	18.5	8.0	82.8	30.9	15.1	128.2
1973	18.7	8.4	81.2	30.4	14.9	120.5
1974	18.8	8.8	78.6	31.2	15.3	122.2
1975	19.3	9.6	76.8	32.5	16.5	123.8
1976	19.0	9.7	73.5	32.1	16.9	117.9
1977	19.8	10.5	73.0	34.6	18.7	121.7
1978	19.1	10.3	68.8	35.1	19.3	119.6
1979	19.9	10.8	71.0	37.2	21.0	123.3
1980	20.6	12.0	68.8	39.0	24.1	118.2
1981	20.9	12.6	65.9	39.0	24.6	114.2
1982	21.5	13.1	66.3	39.6	25.3	112.7
1983	22.0	13.6	66.8	40.7	26.4	111.9
1984	21.9	13.7	66.5	42.5	27.9	113.6
1985	22.4	14.5	66.8	45.9	31.2	117.9
1986	22.8	14.9	67.0	48.0	33.5	121.1
1987	24.5	16.2	69.9	48.9	34.5	123.0
1988	26.4	17.6	73.5	51.5	36.8	130.5
1989	28.7	19.3	78.9	56.0	40.2	140.9
1990	29.6	20.4	78.8	60.7	44.9	143.7
1991	30.9	21.8	80.4	65.7	49.6	148.7
1992	30.4	21.6	78.0	67.3	51.5	147.8
1993	30.6	22.1	76.8	66.9	52.4	141.6
1994	32.0	24.1	75.1	70.1	56.4	141.6
1995	30.5	23.6	68.6	67.6	55.4	131.2
1996	29.0	22.7	64.0	65.9	54.1	129.2
1997	28.2	22.4	60.6	65.2	53.6	127.2
1998	27.0	21.8	56.5	64.2	53.5	123.5
1999	25.5	21.0	51.5	63.3	53.3	117.9
2000	24.4	20.0	49.9	62.9	53.2	116.9
2001	22.5	18.5	45.5	60.1	51.3	109.4
Note: Rates are per 1,000 unmarried women in specified group. Trends in non-marital births may be affected by changes in the reporting of marital status on birth certificates and in procedures for inferring non-marital births when marital status is not reported. Beginning in 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the mother. Prior to 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the child. White and black include those of Hispanic origin for all years. Rates for 1981-1989 have been revised and differ, therefore, from rates published in Vital Statistics in the United States, Vol. 1, Natality, for 1991 and earlier years. Source: National Center for Health Statistics, "Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999," National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; "Births: Final Data for 2001," National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 51 (2), December 2002.

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Non-marital Birth Risk Factor 4. Never-Married Family Status

The percentage of children living in families with never-married female heads increased from under 5 percent in 1982 to nearly 10 percent in 2002.
The percentage of white children living in families headed by never-married women has continued to rise over the past twenty years, from less than 2 percent in 1982 to 5.6 percent in 2002.
Among Hispanics, the percentage of children living with never-married female heads more than doubled over the past sixteen years, going from less than 6 percent in 1982 to 12 percent in 1996. Since then it has fluctuated up and down by about one-half a percentage point.
The percentage of black children living in families headed by never-married women was much higher than the percentages for other groups throughout the time period. However, at 33 percent in 2002, it is two percentage points below its peak in 1999.

Table BIRTH 4.
Number and Percentage of All Children Living in Families with a Never-Married Female Head,
by Race: Selected Years
Year	Number of Children (in thousands)				Percentage
Year	All Races	White	Black	Hispanic	All Races	White	Black	Hispanic
1960	221	49	173	-	0.4	0.1	2.2	-
1970	527	110	442	-	0.8	0.2	5.2	-
1975	1,166	296	864	-	1.8	0.5	9.9	-
1980	1,745	501	1,193	210	2.9	1.0	14.5	4.0
1982	2,768	793	1,947	291	4.6	1.6	22.7	5.7
1984	3,131	959	2,109	357	5.2	1.9	23.9	6.5
1986	3,606	1,174	2,375	451	5.9	2.3	26.6	7.2
1987	3,985	1,385	2,524	587	6.5	2.8	28.2	9.2
1988	4,302	1,482	2,736	600	7.0	3.0	30.4	9.2
1989	4,290	1,483	2,695	592	6.9	2.9	29.6	8.7
1990	4,365	1,527	2,738	605	7.0	3.0	29.6	8.7
1991	5,040	1,725	3,176	644	8.0	3.4	33.3	9.0
1992	5,410	2,016	3,192	757	8.4	3.9	33.1	10.3
1993	5,511	2,015	3,317	848	8.5	3.9	33.6	11.3
1994	6,000	2,412	3,321	1,083	9.0	4.5	32.9	12.0
1995	5,862	2,317	3,255	1,017	8.7	4.3	32.3	10.8
1996	6,365	2,563	3,567	1,161	9.4	4.8	34.4	12.0
1997	6,598	2,788	3,575	1,242	9.7	5.1	34.3	12.4
1998	6,700	2,850	3,644	1,254	9.8	5.2	35.1	12.2
1999	6,736	2,826	3,643	1,297	9.8	5.2	35.3	12.2
2000	6,591	2,881	3,413	1,256	9.5	5.3	32.9	11.4
2001	6,636	3,014	3,382	1,340	9.6	5.5	32.4	11.9
2002	6,872	3,048	3,573	1,400	9.9	5.6	33.4	11.5
Note: Data are for all children under 18 who are not family heads (excludes householders, subfamily reference persons, and their spouses). Also excludes inmates of institutions; children who are living with neither of their parents are excluded from the denominator. Based on Current Population Survey (CPS) except 1960, 1970, and 1980, which are based on decennial census data. Nonwhite data are shown for Black in 1960. In 1982, improved data collection and processing procedures helped to identify parent-child subfamilies. (See Current Population Reports, P-20, 399, Marital Status and Living Arrangements: March 1984.) Source of CPS data: U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Marital Status and Living Arrangements," Current Population Reports, Series P20-212, 287, 365, 380, 399, 418, 423, 433, 445, 450, 461, 468, 478, 484, 491, 496, 506, 514, 537, various years, and ASPE tabulations of the CPS for 2001 and 2002. Source of 1960 data: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1960 Census of Population, PC(2)-4B, "Persons by Family Characteristics," tables 1 and 19.

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Chapter III. Predictors and Risk Factors Associated with Welfare Receipt

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Chapter III.
Predictors and Risk Factors
Associated with Welfare Receipt