2002 Indicators of Welfare Dependence

Chapter II:
Indicators of Dependence

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Contents

1. Degree of Dependence
2. Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment
3. Rates of Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance
4. Rates of Participation in Means-Tested Assistance Programs
5. Multiple Program Receipt
6. Dependence Transitions
7. Dependence Spell Duration
8. Program Spell Duration
9. Long-Term Dependence
10. Long-Term Receipt
11. Events Associated with the Beginning and Ending of Program Spells

Following the format of the previous annual reports to Congress, Chapter II presents summary data related to indicators of dependence. These indicators differ from other welfare statistics because of their emphasis on welfare dependence, rather than simple welfare receipt. As discussed in Chapter I, the Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators suggested measuring dependence as the proportion of families with more than 50 percent of their total income in a one-year period coming from AFDC (now TANF), food stamps and/or SSI. Furthermore, this welfare income was not to be associated with work activities.

The indicators in Chapter II were selected to provide information about dependence, following, to the extent feasible, the definition of dependence proposed by the Advisory Board. Existing data from administrative records and national surveys, however, do not generally distinguish welfare benefits received in conjunction with work from benefits received without work. Thus, it was not possible to construct one single indicator of dependence; that is, one indicator that measures both percentage of income from means-tested assistance and presence of work activities.

Instead, this chapter includes some indicators that focus on the percentage of recipients’ income from means-tested assistance, while other indicators focus on presence of work activities at the same time as welfare receipt. Still other indicators present summary data and characteristics on all recipients, not limited to those with more than 50 percent of total income from welfare programs or those without work activities.

Overall, the indicators of dependency were selected to reflect both the range and depth of dependence. This chapter focuses on recipients of three major means-tested cash and nutritional assistance programs: cash assistance through the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) programs, Supplemental Security Income (SSI) for elderly and disabled recipients, and the Food Stamp Program.

Here is a brief summary of each of the eleven indicators:

Indicator 1: Degree of Dependence. This indicator focuses most closely on those individuals who meet the Advisory Board’s proposed definition of “dependence.” In addition to examining individuals with more than 50 percent of their annual family income from AFDC/TANF, food stamps and/or SSI, it shows various levels of dependence by examining those with more than 0 percent, 25 percent, and 75 percent of their income from these sources (Indicators 1a and 1b). This indicator also shows the average percentage of income from means-tested assistance and earnings received by families with various levels of income relative to the poverty level (Indicators 1c and 1d).

Indicator 2: Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment. This indicator looks further at the relationship between receipt of means-tested assistance and participation in the labor force. This is an important issue because of the significant number of low-income individuals who use a combination of means-tested assistance and earnings from the labor force to get by each month.

Indicator 3: Rates of Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance. This indicator paints yet another picture of dependence by measuring recipiency rates, that is, the percentage of the population that receives AFDC/TANF, food stamps, or SSI in an average month. Program administrative data make these figures readily available over time, allowing a better sense of historical trends than is available from the more specialized indicators of dependence.

Indicator 4: Rates of Participation in Means-Tested Assistance Programs. While means-tested public assistance programs are open to all that meet their requirements, not all eligible households participate in the programs. This indicator uses administrative data and microsimulation models to reflect “take up rates” — the number of families that actually participate in the programs as a percentage of those who are legally eligible.

Indicator 5: Multiple Program Receipt. Depending on their circumstances, individuals may choose a variety of different means-tested assistance “packages.” This indicator looks at the percentage of individuals receiving AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI in a month, examining how many rely on just one of these programs, and how many rely on a combination of two programs.

Indicator 6: Dependence Transitions. This indicator uses data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to look at the ability of individuals who are dependent on welfare in one year to make the transition out of dependence in the following year.

Indicator 7: Dependence Spell Duration. Like Indicator 6, this indicator is concerned with dynamics of welfare receipt and welfare dependence. It shows the proportion of individuals with short, medium, and long spells, or episodes, of AFDC receipt. The focus is on individuals in AFDC families with no labor force participants.

Indicator 8: Program Spell Duration. One critical aspect of dependence is how long individuals receive means-tested assistance. Like Indicator 7, this indicator provides information on short, medium, and long spells of welfare receipt. It differs from Indicator 7 in looking at all recipients, regardless of attachment to the labor force, and in analyzing recipients of each of the three major means-tested programs — AFDC, food stamps, and SSI.

Indicator 9: Long-Term Dependency. This indicator uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to examine dependency over three separate ten-year time periods. It measures dependency as individuals with more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and food stamps, not counting SSI.

Indicator 10: Long-Term Receipt. Many individuals who leave welfare programs cycle back on after an absence of several months. Thus it is important to look beyond individual program spells, measured in Indicator 8, to examine the cumulative amount of time individuals receive assistance over a period of several years. The issue of long-term receipt is particularly important in light of time limits that have been enacted under state TANF programs.

Indicator 11: Events Associated with the Beginning and Ending of Program Spells. To gain a better understanding of welfare dynamics, it is important to go beyond measures of spell duration and examine information regarding the major events in people’s lives that are correlated with the beginnings or endings of program spells. This measure focuses on receipt of AFDC.

INDICATOR 1. DEGREE OF DEPENDENCE

Figure IND 1a.
Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs: 1999

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

• About 3.3 percent of the total population in 1999 received more than half of their total family income from TANF, food stamps and SSI. As shown in Table IND1b, the percentage of families dependent on public assistance steadily decreased over the past several years.
• A total of 13.3 percent of the overall population received at least one dollar in means-tested assistance in 1999. However, for over half of these individuals (7.7 percent of the total population), such assistance represented 25 percent or less of annual family income. The vast majority (87 percent) of the population received no means-tested assistance in 1999.
• Very young children (birth to five years) were more likely than children of other ages to be in families receiving some amount of public assistance. As shown in Table IND 1a, 6 percent of very young children were dependent on public assistance in 1999.
• In 1999, only one out of four of individuals receiving some public assistance reported that TANF, food stamps, and SSI accounted for more than half of their total family income. This number showed a decline in dependence since 1996, when nearly one in three individuals receiving public assistance were dependent on it.

Figure IND 1c.
Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status: 1999

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

• Those in families with incomes below the poverty level received nearly half (49 percent) of their total family income from earnings and 30 percent of their total family income from means-tested assistance programs (AFDC/TANF, SSI, and food stamps) in 1999. In contrast, those with family incomes over 200 percent of the poverty level received the majority (85 percent) of their incomes from earnings and less than one percent of their income from means-tested assistance (a percentage so small as to not be visible in Figure IND 1c).
• The percentage of family income received from earnings is inversely proportional to overall family income relative to the poverty line. For example, the percentage of income received from earnings for those living in deep poverty (below 50 percent of poverty) was only 30 percent, compared to 49 percent for all poor individuals in 1999.
• On average, children were more likely than the elderly to live in families receiving a higher percentage of their income from means-tested assistance programs, as shown by Table IND 1c. The elderly received more income from other sources, such as Social Security benefits and private pensions.
• The percentage of income received from earnings for families with incomes below the poverty level has increased over time, as shown in Table IND 1d. In 1995, poor families received 40 percent of their incomes from earnings; this percentage rose to 49 percent in 1999.

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INDICATOR 2. RECEIPT OF MEANS-TESTED ASSISTANCE AND LABOR FORCE ATTACHMENT

Figure IND 2.
Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Program: 1999

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

• In 1999, 59 percent of individuals who received TANF, 58 percent of individuals who received food stamps, and 39 percent of individuals who received SSI were in families with at least one person in the labor force, either part-time or full-time.
• Over one-third of TANF and food stamp recipients lived in families with at least one full-time worker in 1999, while slightly less than one-fourth had a part-time labor force participant. In contrast, SSI recipients were more likely to live in families with no labor force participant.
• As shown in Table IND 2a, among recipients of TANF, food stamps, and SSI, a larger percentage of children under age 6 were in families with at least one full-time worker than children ages 6 to 15.
• The percentage of AFDC/TANF recipients living in families with at least one full-time worker increased from 24 percent in 1996 to 36 percent in 1999, as shown in Table IND 2b.

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INDICATOR 3. RATES OF RECEIPT OF MEANS-TESTED ASSISTANCE

Figure IND 3a.
Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age: 1970-2000

Source:  U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, United States Census 2000, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

• Although the survey data needed to examine overall welfare receipt and dependency are not yet available past 1999, administrative data for AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI provide measures of recipiency for each of these three programs through 2000, as shown in Figures IND 3a, IND 3b, and IND 3c. Additional administrative data are shown in Appendix A.
• Just over 2 percent of the population received TANF in 2000. This is the lowest rate of AFDC/TANF receipt in the 30 years shown in Table IND 3a. The percentage of the total population receiving AFDC/TANF has dropped significantly since 1994, when it was at a 25-year high of over 5 percent.
• AFDC/TANF recipiency rates have been much higher over time for children than for adults, with the child recipiency rates also showing more pronounced changes over time. Between 1996 and 2000, the receipt of AFDC/TANF receipt among children was cut in half (from 12 to 6 percent), the most rapid decline in a generation.

Figure IND 3b.
Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age: 1975-2000

Source:  USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 2000, and earlier reports, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, United States Census 2000, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

• The food stamp recipiency rate, like the AFDC/TANF recipiency rate shown previously in Figure IND 3a, has fallen sharply in recent years. The percentage of all persons receiving food stamps peaked in 1994, at nearly 11 percent, but dropped to just over 6 percent in 2000, its lowest point ever since the Food Stamp program became available nationwide in 1975.
• As with AFDC/TANF, food stamp recipiency rates have been much higher over time for children than for adults. Between 1980 and 2000, the percentage of all children who received food stamps was between two and one-half to three times that for all adults 18 to 59.
• Similar trends in food stamps recipiency — largely reflecting changes in the rate of unemployment and programmatic changes — existed across all age groups over time, as shown in Table IND 3b. The percentages of individuals receiving food stamps within all age groups declined from 1984 through 1988, rose in the early 1990s until reaching a peak in 1994, and then declined through 2000.

Figure IND 3c.
Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975-2000

Source:  Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin · Annual Statistical Supplement · 2001 (Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics), and U.S. Bureau of the Census, United States Census 2000, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

• Unlike the recipiency rates for AFDC/TANF and food stamps, which have been influenced by outside factors such as the economy and welfare reform, overall recipiency rates for SSI show less variation over time. After trending downward slightly from 1975 to the early 1980s, the proportion of the total population that receives SSI has risen from 1.7 percent in 1983 to 2.5 percent in 1996 and subsequently declined slightly to 2.3 percent. As shown in Table IND 3c, the total number of recipients has grown by 70Unlike the recipiency rates for AFDC/TANF and food stamps, which have be
• Elderly adults (age 65 and older) have much higher recipiency rates than any other age group. The gap has narrowed, however, as the percentage of adults age 65 and older receiving SSI has been cut nearly in half, declining from 10.9 percent in 1975 to 5.7 percent in 2000.
• The proportion of children receiving SSI increased gradually between 1975 and 1990, and grew more rapidly in the early-to-mid 1990s, reaching a high of 1.4 percent in 1996. The rate has since fallen slightly, with 1.2 percent of children receiving SSI in 2000.

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INDICATOR 4. RATES OF PARTICIPATION IN MEANS-TESTED ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS

Figure IND 4.
Participation Rates in the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Programs: Selected Years

Source:  AFDC and SSI participation rates are tabulated using TRIM3 microsimulation model, while food stamp participation rates are from a Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. model. See Tables IND 4a, IND 4b, and IND 4c for details.

• Whereas Indicator 3 examined participants as a percentage of the total population (recipiency rates), this indicator examines participating families or households as a percentage of the estimated eligible population (participation rates, also known as “take up” rates).
• Participation rates for both AFDC/TANF and the Food Stamp Program fell significantly between 1995 and 1999, with the sharpest decline between 1996 and 1998.
• Only 52 percent of the families estimated as eligible for TANF actually enrolled and received benefits in an average month in 1999. This was significantly lower than AFDC participation rates, which ranged from 77 percent to 86 percent between 1981 and 1996. The food stamp participation rate in 1999 was also 52 percent, its lowest level since 1990.
• In contrast to the declines in AFDC/TANF and Food Stamp Program participation, the SSI participation rate rose by more than 9 percentage points between 1993 and 1999. In 1999, the SSI participation rate was 74 percent, well above the rates for the other two programs.
• Simulations of the AFDC/TANF eligible population show relatively small changes in the number of families eligible for benefits between 1995 and 1998. These data suggest that the large caseload declines between 1995 and 1998 were largely a result of declining participation or “take up” rates among the eligible populations. Between 1998 and 1999, however, the eligible population dropped by roughly 600,000 families, to the lowest level since 1990.

• The proportion of eligible households who participated in the Food Stamp program fell from 64 percent in 1996 to 52 percent in 1999, a drop of 12 percentage points. This is the fourth year in a row that there has been a decline in Food Stamp participation rates.
• In addition, there was a decline in the number of households eligible for the Food Stamp program, from 15.5 million in September 1996 to just under 14 million in September 1999. This decline was driven by new eligibility restrictions on aliens and able-bodied adults without dependent children, growth in the economy, changes in the TANF program, and other factors.
• The significant drop in participating households, from just under 10 million households in September 1996 to 7.3 million households in September 1999, reflects the combined effect of a decline in the eligible population and lower participation rates.

• In contrast to the declining participation rates for the AFDC/TANF and Food Stamp programs, the participation rate for adult units in the SSI Program has been increasing, from 62 percent in 1993, to 74 percent in 1999. Note, however, that some of the apparent growth between 1996 and 1997 may be due to a revision in estimating methodology, as noted above.
• In 1999, as in past years, disabled adults in one-person units had a higher participation rate (83 percent) than both aged adults in one-person units (66 percent) and adults in married-couple units (48 percent).

INDICATOR 5. MULTIPLE PROGRAM RECEIPT

Figure IND 5.
Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs (TANF, Food Stamps, & SSI), Among Those Receiving Assistance: 1999

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

• Of the 9 percent of the population in families receiving TANF, food stamps, or SSI benefits in an average month in 1998, nearly two-thirds (65 percent) received assistance from only one program. Most of these received food stamps or SSI benefits only. Another common pattern of benefit receipt, found in 24 percent of those with any receipt, was TANF and food stamps.
• Children are more likely than others to live in families receiving TANF and/or food stamps. For example, 16 percent of children under six lived in families receiving any public assistance in an average month in 1999, and 6 percent of children under six lived in families receiving both TANF and food stamps, as shown in Table IND 5a.
• The percentage of individuals receiving assistance from at least one program among AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI in an average month decreased during the mid-to-late 1990s (from 12 percent in 1996 to less than 9 percent in 1999), as shown in Table IND 5b. The decline was most dramatic for those families receiving a combination of AFDC/TANF and food stamps.

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INDICATOR 6. DEPENDENCE TRANSITIONS

Figure IND 6.
Dependency Status in 1995 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 1994, by Race/Ethnicity

Source:  Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

• Nearly four-fifths (79 percent) of all recipients who received more than 50 percent of their total income from means-tested assistance programs in 1994 also received more than 50 percent of their total income from these same programs in 1995.
• Of recipients who received more than 50 percent of their total income from AFDC, food stamps and SSI in 1994, a larger percentage of non-Hispanic whites became “less dependent” in 1995 (received 50 percent or less of their total income from means-tested assistance programs) compared to Hispanics and non-Hispanic blacks.
• As shown in Table IND 6, a slightly larger percentage of women who received more than half of their total income from means-tested assistance programs in 1994 remained “dependent” in 1995 compared to the same percentage for men (79 percent compared to 73 percent).

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INDICATOR 7. DEPENDENCE SPELL DURATION

Figure IND 7.
Percentage of AFDC Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Source:  Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

• Forty-three percent of AFDC spells for individuals in families with no one in the labor force ended within a year. This measure is for individuals entering AFDC in 1993-1995, prior to enactment of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA).
• Over one-quarter (27 percent) of AFDC spells for individuals in families where no one participated in the labor force lasted four months or less.
• As shown in Table IND 7, a smaller percentage of AFDC spells to children in families with no labor force participants ended in four months or less compared to their adult counterparts (25 percent compared to 31 percent).
• Spells shown in Figure IND 7 are limited to spells of recipients in families without any labor force participation. Spell lengths are shorter in Figure IND 8, which shows spells for all recipients, including those in families with labor force participants. For example, whereas only half (50 percent) of spells shown in Figure IND 7 end in 20 months or less, over two-thirds (69 percent) of all AFDC spells last 20 months or less, as shown in Figure IND 8.

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INDICATOR 8. PROGRAM SPELL DURATION

Figure IND 8.
Percentage of AFDC, Food Stamp, and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Source:  Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 Panel.

• Between the years 1993 and 1995, short spells lasting 4 months or less accounted for 31 percent of AFDC spells, 24 percent of SSI spells, and 33 percent of food stamp spells.
• Over one-half of all AFDC and food stamp spells lasted one year or less (56 percent and 60 percent, respectively). In contrast, only 32 percent of SSI spells ended within one year. The percentage of SSI spells that lasted more than 20 months is twice the percentage of AFDC and food stamp spells that lasted this long (see Table IND 5).
• As shown in Table IND 8, for AFDC spells, a larger percentage of short spells (lasting 4 months or less) and a smaller percentage of long spells (lasting more than 20 months) occurred among non-Hispanic whites compared to non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics.
• A larger percentage of AFDC and food stamp spells among adults ages 16 to 64 ended within 4 months compared to spells among children.
• Short spells are less common among recipients in families without labor force participants, as shown previously in Figure and Table IND 7.

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INDICATOR 9. LONG-TERM DEPENDENCY

Figure IND 9.
Percentage of AFDC Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps Between 1987 and 1996, by Years of Dependency

Source:  Unpublished data from the PSID, 1988-1997.

• Almost half (47 percent) of all persons who received AFDC at some point in the ten-year period ending in 1996 were not dependent on welfare in any of these years. Specifically, they did not receive more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and/or food stamps in any of the ten years (SSI receipt is excluded from this measure of dependency). This was also true for recipients in the two earlier ten-year time periods, as shown in Table IND 9.
• About 14 percent of recipients in the most recent ten-year period were dependent (received more than 50 percent of annual income from AFDC and food stamps) for more than five years between 1987 and 1996. The 14 percent of recipients who were dependent for six or more years represent 1.7 percent of the total population. In addition, 16 percent of AFDC recipients were dependent for three to five years, and 24 percent were dependent for one or two years.
• As shown in Table IND 9, young children (ages 0-5 in 1987) are more likely to experience long-term dependency than other individuals. About one-fourth (26 percent) of such children receiving AFDC at least once between 1987 and 1996 were dependent on AFDC and food stamp income for six or more years. Another 45 percent were dependent for one to five years, and only 28 percent were not dependent in any year.

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INDICATOR 10. LONG-TERM RECEIPT

Figure IND 10.
Percentage of AFDC Recipients, by Years of Receipt Between 1987 and 1996

Source:  Unpublished data from the PSID, 1988-1997.

• Among all persons receiving AFDC at some point in the ten-year period ending in 1996, about half (51 percent) received assistance for only one or two of these years. About one quarter (27 percent) received AFDC for three to five years, and close to one quarter (22 percent) received AFDC for more than five years.
• As shown in Table IND 10, compared to non-black recipients, a large percentage of black recipients received AFDC for more than five years in all three ten-year time periods.
• A larger percentage of child recipients experienced long-term receipt and a smaller percentage experienced short-term receipt in all three time periods relative to the percentages for all recipients, as shown in Table IND 10.
• The percentage of AFDC recipients with long-term assistance (at least six years) is somewhat lower in the most recent ten-year time period — 22 percent — than in the earlier two time periods (28 and 26 percent).
• Whereas nearly one-quarter (22 percent) of recipients received at least some AFDC for six or more years between 1987 and 1996 (as shown in Figure IND 10), only 14 percent of recipients received more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and food stamps for six or more years over the same time period (as previously shown in Figure IND 9).

Table IND 10:
Percentage of AFDC Recipients Across Three Ten-Year Time Periods by Years of Receipt, Race, and Age

Between 1967 and 1976:
	All Recipients			Child Recipients 0-5 in 1967
Years received AFDC:	All	Black	Non-Black	All	Black	Non-Black
1-2 Years	46.8	32.2	54.9	39.6	24.6	48.6
3-5 Years	27.1	32.4	24.1	30.7	38.5	26.0
6-8 Years	17.9	22.3	15.4	18.3	19.9	17.3
9-10 Years	8.2	13.2	5.5	11.4	17.0	8.0
Between 1977 and 1986:
	All Recipients			Child Recipients 0-5 in 1977
Years received AFDC:	All	Black	Non-Black	All	Black	Non-Black
1-2 Years	46.1	32.1	54.9	35.5	17.0	46.7
3-5 Years	26.0	29.3	24.0	23.1	31.5	18.0
6-8 Years	17.4	22.9	13.9	19.7	22.7	17.8
9-10 Years	10.5	15.7	7.3	21.7	28.8	17.4
Between 1987 and 1996:
	All Recipients			Child Recipients 0-5 in 1987
Years received AFDC:	All	Black	Non-Black	All	Black	Non-Black
1-2 Years	51.0	39.2	59.7	34.6	18.8	51.1
3-5 Years	26.6	27.6	25.9	29.6	33.5	25.6
6-8 Years	13.5	18.2	10.0	20.6	25.2	15.9
9-10 Years	8.8	15.0	4.3	15.1	22.5	7.4
Note:  As in Table IND 9, the base for the percentages consists of individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC in any year in the ten-year period. Footnotes in previous reports erroneously defined the base for these percentages as individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC in the first year of the ten-year period. The current table is based on the same methodology used to compute estimates for earlier reports. Child recipients are defined by age in the first year of the 10-year period. This measures years of recipiency over the specified ten-year time periods and does not take into account years of recipiency that may have occurred before or after the ten-year period.
Source:  Unpublished data from the PSID 1968-93 final release files and 1994-1997 unreleased preliminary data as of January, 2002.

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INDICATOR 11. EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEGINNING AND ENDING OF PROGRAM SPELLS

• Between 1986 and 1991, the most common events associated with the beginnings of a first AFDC spell were work-related: a decrease in mother’s work hours (26 percent), a decrease in work hours of another adult (22 percent), and acquisition of a work limitation (24 percent).
• The percentage of first AFDC episode beginnings associated with a householder acquiring a work limitation was higher for spells that began between 1986 and 1991 (24 percent) than for spells that began between 1973 and 1979 (16 percent) or 1980 to 1985 (18 percent).
• Between 1973 and 1979, first births to an unmarried, non-cohabiting mother were associated with 28 percent of first AFDC episodes. In contrast, such births were associated with 21 percent of first spells beginning between 1980 and 1985, and 22 percent of spells beginning between 1986 and 1991.

• During the 1986 to 1991 time period, over one-fourth (27 percent) of first AFDC spell endings were associated with increases in mother’s work hours. The corresponding percentage was smaller for spells ending between 1973 and 1979 (15 percent).
• In the period between 1973 and 1979, a greater percentage of spell endings was associated with an increase in work hours for other adults (22 percent) as compared to mothers (15 percent). In the more recent time period (1986 to 1991), a greater percentage of spell endings was associated with an increase in mother’s work hours (27 percent) compared to other adults (17 percent).

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