Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Indicators of Welfare Dependence: Annual Report to Congress, 2002

Publication Date

The Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 requires the Secretary of Health and Human Services to prepare an annual report to Congress on indicators welfare dependence. The Indicators of Welfare Dependence report is prepared within the Office of Human Services Policy and delivered to Congress each spring. As mandated under the Congressional act, the report addresses the rate of welfare dependency, the degree and duration of welfare recipiency and dependence, and predictors of welfare dependence. Further, analyses of means-tested assistance in the report include benefits under the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program; the Food Stamp Program, and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program. The report also includes risk factors related to economic security, employment, and non-marital births, as well an appendix with data related to the above programs.

"

Executive Summary

The Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 requires the Department of Health and Human Services to prepare annual reports to Congress on indicators and predictors of welfare dependence. The 2002 Indicators of Welfare Dependence, the fifth annual report, provides welfare dependence indicators through 1999, reflecting changes that have taken place since enactment of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) in August 1996. As directed by the Welfare Indicators Act, the report focuses on benefits under the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program, now the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program; the Food Stamp Program; and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program.

Welfare dependence, like poverty, is a continuum, with variations in degree and in duration. Families may be more or less dependent if larger or smaller shares of their total resources are derived from welfare programs. The amount of time over which families depend on welfare might also be considered in assessing their degree of dependence. Although recognizing the difficulties inherent in defining and measuring dependence, the bipartisan Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators proposed the following definition, as one measure to examine in concert with other key indicators of dependence and deprivation:

A family is dependent on welfare if more than 50 percent of its total income in a one-year period comes from AFDC/TANF, food stamps and/or SSI, and this welfare income is not associated with work activities. Welfare dependence is the proportion of all families who are dependent on welfare.

The proposed definition is difficult to measure because of limitations with existing data collection efforts. Most importantly, the available data do not distinguish between cash benefits associated with work activities and non-work-related cash benefits. In addition, there are time lags in the availability of the national data from the detailed surveys that may be best suited to measure dependence. This 2002 report uses data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and administrative data to provide updated measures through 1999 for several dependence indicators. Other measures are based on the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), and other data sources. Drawing on these various data sources, this report provides a number of key indicators of welfare recipiency, dependence, and labor force attachment. Selected highlights from the many findings in the report include the following:

  • In 1999, 3.3 percent of the total population was dependent in the sense of receiving more than half of total family income from TANF, food stamps, and/or SSI (see Indicator 1). This rate has fallen considerably from the 5.2 percent rate measured in 1996. Rates of dependence would be lower if they could be adjusted to exclude welfare income associated with work required to obtain benefits.
  • The drop in dependence parallels the more well-known drop in AFDC/TANF and food stamp caseloads. The percentage of individuals receiving AFDC/TANF, for example, fell from 4.7 percent to 2.1 percent between 1996 and 2000 (see Indicator 3). Food stamp recipiency rates dropped from 9.6 percent to 6.2 percent over the same time period. Recipiency rates for TANF and food stamps fell again between 1999 and 2000, suggesting that dependency rates will continue to fall in 2000 (though the data are not yet available).
  • In an average month in 1999, more than half (59 percent) of TANF recipients lived in families with at least one family member in the labor force. Comparable figures for food stamp and SSI recipients were 58 and 38 percent, respectively (see Indicator 2). Labor force participation, particularly full-time employment, increased considerably among AFDC/TANF families in the last several years.
  • Long-term dependence is relatively rare. Among individuals receiving AFDC at some point over the ten years ending in 1996, 14 percent were dependent on AFDC and food stamps for six or more years of that period (SSI income is excluded from this particular measure of dependency). This represents 1.7 percent of the total population. Another 40 percent of recipients were dependent for one to five of the ten years and 47 percent were not dependent in any year (see Indicator 9).

Since the causes of welfare receipt and dependence are not clearly known, the report also includes a larger set of risk factors associated with welfare receipt. The risk factors are loosely organized into three categories: economic security measures, measures related to employment and barriers to employment, and measures of nonmarital childbearing. The economic security risk factors include measures of poverty and deprivation that are important not only as predictors of dependence, but also as a supplement to the dependence indicators, ensuring that dependence measures are not assessed in isolation. It is important to examine whether decreases in dependency are accompanied by improvements in family economic status or by reductions in family material circumstances. The report includes data on the official poverty rate, one of the most common measures of deprivation:

  • As the dependency rate fell between 1996 and 1999, the poverty rate for all individuals fell also, from 13.7 percent in 1996 to 11.8 percent in 1999. The poverty rate fell again in 2000, declining to 11.3 percent, the lowest rate since 1979 (see Economic Security Risk Factor 1, Figure ECON 1a).

Finally, the report has three appendices that provide additional program data on major welfare programs, as well as alternative measures of dependence and additional data on non-marital births.

Chapter I: Introduction and Overview

The Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 (Pub. L. 103-432) directed the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) to publish an annual report on welfare dependency. This 2002 report, the fifth annual indicators report, gives updated data on the measures of welfare recipiency, dependency, and predictors of welfare dependence developed for previous reports. It reflects changes that have taken place since enactment of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) in August 1996.

The purpose of this report is to address questions concerning the extent to which American families depend on income from welfare programs. Under the Welfare Indicators Act, HHS was directed to address the rate of welfare dependency, the degree and duration of welfare recipiency and dependence, and predictors of welfare dependence. The Act further specified that analyses of means-tested assistance should include benefits under the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program, now the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program; the Food Stamp Program; and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program.

The first annual report was produced under the oversight of a bipartisan Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators, which assisted the Secretary in defining welfare dependence, developing indicators of welfare dependence, and choosing appropriate data. Under the terms of the original authorizing legislation, the Advisory Board was terminated in October 1997, prior to the submission of the first annual report. Subsequent annual reports have provided updates for the measures developed for the first report. In recent years, the report has been shortened, in keeping with Congressional interest in a smaller set of indicators and predictors of dependency.

This 2002 report provides updated measures through 1999 for several dependency measures. It has become possible to update these measures annually because of a change made last year in the data source for several indicators, from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to the Current Population Survey (CPS). Whereas the SIPP data have only been analyzed through 1995, the CPS data are available for more recent years, allowing examination of indicators and predictors of dependency since the enactment of welfare reform in 1996. Those measures that can be updated annually are presented at the front of each chapter, followed by the figures that are derived from data sources that are updated less frequently.

Organization of Report

This introductory chapter provides an overview of the specific summary measures of welfare dependence proposed by the Advisory Board. It also discusses summary measures of poverty, following the Board’s recommendation that dependence measures not be assessed in isolation from measures of deprivation. Analysis of both measures is important because changes in dependence measures could result either from increases in work activity and other factors that would raise family incomes, or from sanctions or other changes in welfare programs that would reduce welfare program participation but might not improve the material circumstances of these families. The introduction concludes with a discussion of data sources used for the report.

Chapter II of the report, Indicators of Dependence, presents eleven indicators of welfare dependence and recipiency. These indicators include dependence measures based on total income from all three programs — AFDC/TANF, SSI, and food stamps — as well as measures of recipiency for each of the three programs considered separately. The labor force participation among families receiving welfare and multiple receipt across programs are also shown. The second half of the chapter also includes longitudinal data on transitions on and off welfare programs and spells of dependence and recipiency.

Chapter III, Predictors and Risk Factors Associated with Welfare Receipt, focuses on predictors of welfare dependence — risk factors believed to be associated with welfare receipt in some way. These predictors are shown in three different groups:

  1. Economic security — including various measures of poverty, receipt of child support, food insecurity, and health insurance coverage — is important in predicting dependence in the sense that families with fewer economic resources are more likely to rely on welfare programs for their support.
  2. Measures of the work status and barriers to employment of adult family members also are critical, because families must generally receive an adequate income from employment in order to avoid dependence without severe deprivation.
  3. Finally, data on non-marital births are important since a high proportion of long-term welfare recipients first became parents outside of marriage, frequently as teenagers.

Additional data are presented in three appendices. Appendix A provides basic program data on each of the main welfare programs and their recipients; Appendix B shows how dependence is affected by the inclusion of benefits from the SSI program; and Appendix C includes additional data on non-marital childbearing. The main welfare programs included in Appendix A are:

  • The Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program, the largest cash assistance program, provided monthly cash benefits to families with children, until its replacement by the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program, which is run directly by the states. Data on the AFDC and TANF programs are provided in Appendix A, with AFDC data provided from 1977 through June 1997, and TANF data from July 1997 through 2000, or where available, 2001.
  • The Food Stamp Program provides monthly food stamp coupons to all individuals, whether they are living in families or alone, provided their income and assets are below limits set in Federal law. It reaches more poor people over the course of a year than any other means-tested public assistance program. Appendix A provides historical data from 1970 to 2000, or where available, 2001.
  • The Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program provides monthly cash payments to elderly, blind, or disabled individuals or couples whose income and assets are below levels set in Federal law. Though the majority of recipients are adults, disabled children also are eligible. Historical data from 1974 through 2000 are provided in Appendix A.

Measuring Welfare Dependence

As suggested by its title, this report focuses on welfare “dependence” as well as welfare “recipiency.” While recipiency can be defined fairly easily, based on the presence of benefits from AFDC/TANF, SSI or food stamps, dependence is a more complex concept.

Welfare dependence, like poverty, is a continuum, with variations in degree and in duration. Families may be more or less dependent if larger or smaller shares of their total resources are derived from welfare programs. The amount of time over which a family depends on welfare might also be considered in assessing its degree of dependence. Nevertheless, a summary measure of dependence to be used as an indicator for policy purposes must have some fixed parameters that allow one to determine which families should be counted as dependent, just as the poverty line defines who is poor under the official standard. The definition of dependence proposed by the Advisory Board for this purpose is as follows:

A family is dependent on welfare if more than 50 percent of its total income in a one-year period comes from AFDC, food stamps and/or SSI, and this welfare income is not associated with work activities. Welfare dependence is the proportion of all families who are dependent on welfare.

This measure is not without its limitations. The Advisory Board recognized that no single measure could fully capture all aspects of dependence and that the proposed measure should be examined in concert with other key indicators of dependence and deprivation. In addition, while the proposed definition would count unsubsidized and subsidized employment and work required to obtain benefits as work activities, existing data sources do not permit distinguishing between welfare income associated with work activities and non-work-related welfare benefits. As a result, the data shown in this report overstate the incidence of dependence (as defined above) because welfare income associated with work required to obtain benefits is classified as welfare and not as income from work. This issue may be growing in importance under the increased work requirements of the TANF program. In 2000, the percentage of welfare recipients who were working (including employment, work experience, and community service) reached an all-time high of 33 percent, compared to the 7 percent recorded in 1992.1

This proposed definition also represents an essentially arbitrary choice of a percentage (50 percent) of income from welfare beyond which families will be considered dependent. However, it is relatively easy to measure and to track over time, and is likely to be associated with any very large changes in total dependence, however defined. For example, dependence under this definition has declined as policy changes under welfare reform have moved more recipients into employment or work-related activities.

As shown in Figure SUM 1, 3.3 percent of the population would be considered “dependent” on welfare in 1999 under the above definition. This is about one-quarter of the percentage (13.3 percent) that lived in a family receiving at least some TANF, food stamp or SSI benefits during the year.

Figure SUM 1.Recipiency and Dependency Rates: 1996-1999

Figure SUM 1. Recipiency and Dependency Rates: 1996-1999

Note:  Recipiency is defined as living in a family with receipt of any amount of AFDC/TANF, SSI, or food stamps during year. Dependency is defined as having more than 50 percent of annual income from AFDC/TANF, SSI and/or food stamps. Dependency rates would be lower if adjusted to exclude welfare assistance associated with working

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Both dependency and recipiency rates fell between 1996 and 1999: dependence rates fell from 5.2 to 3.3 percent, while recipiency rates fell from 16.0 to 13.3 percent. The drop in recipiency rates is consistent with administrative data showing declining TANF and food stamp caseloads from 1996 to 1999. What is not apparent from administrative records, but is shown in these national survey data, is that the dependency rate also declined sharply between 1996 and 1999.

Recipiency and dependency rates are higher for non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics than for non-Hispanic whites, as shown in Table SUM 1, which shows these rates for various racial/ethnic and age categories. Recipiency and dependence also are higher for young children than for adults. However, both recipiency and dependency rates decreased across all racial/ethnic and age categories between 1996 and 1999.

Dependency on assistance also varies depending upon which programs are counted as “welfare programs.” Dependency would be much lower — 1.7 percent — if only AFDC/TANF and food stamp benefits were counted (as shown in Appendix B and as is done in some measures in this report). Whereas the inclusion or exclusion of individuals receiving only SSI benefits had a relatively small effect on dependence indicators several years ago, in 1999 over one-third of dependent individuals are dependent on SSI income only.

Another factor affecting dependence is the time period observed. The summary measures shown in Figure and Table SUM 1 focus on recipiency and dependency rates over a one-year time period. Long-term recipiency and dependency are more rare, as shown in the longitudinal measures in the second half of Chapter II. Indicator 9, for example, shows that among individuals receiving AFDC at some point over the ten years ending in 1996, 14 percent were dependent on AFDC and/or food stamps for six or more years (SSI income is excluded from this particular measure of dependency). This represents about 1.7 percent of the total population. Another 30 percent of recipients were dependent for one to five of the ten years, and 47 percent were not dependent in any year.

Table SUM 1. Recipiency and Dependency Rates: 1996-1999

  1996 1997 1998 1999
Recipiency Rates (Rates of Any Amount of AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps, or SSI)
All Persons 16.0 14.8 13.5 13.3
 
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 9.9 9.7 8.6 8.4
Non-Hispanic Black 35.6 30.2 29.6 29.8
Hispanic 32.0 28.0 24.5 23.4
 
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5 28.2 25.1 22.4 21.5
Children Ages 6-10 24.2 21.2 20.0 19.8
Children Ages 11-15 21.1 19.4 17.0 17.3
 
Women Ages 16-64 16.0 14.7 13.6 13.6
Men Ages 16-64 11.7 11.1 10.0 9.6
Adults Age 65 and over 10.3 10.2 9.9 10.0
         
Dependency Rates (More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance)
All Persons 5.2 4.5 3.8 3.3
 
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 2.6 2.5 2.1 1.8
Non-Hispanic Black 13.8 11.4 10.5 9.1
Hispanic 10.9 9.1 6.6 5.4
 
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5 11.2 9.3 7.8 6.2
Children Ages 6-10 9.5 8.4 6.7 6.1
Children Ages 11-15 8.1 7.4 5.7 4.5
 
Women Ages 16-64 5.2 4.6 3.9 3.5
Men Ages 16-64 2.7 2.5 2.1 1.9
Adults Age 65 and over 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0

Note:  Recipiency is defined as living in a family with receipt of any amount of AFDC/TANF, SSI, or food stamps during the year. Dependency is defined as having more than 50 percent of annual family income from AFDC/TANF, SSI and/or food stamps. Dependency rates would be lower if adjusted to exclude welfare assistance associated with working.

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.


1 The earnings of those in unsubsidized employment would be correctly captured as income from work in national surveys. Any welfare benefits associated with work experience, community service programs or other work activities, however, would be counted as income from welfare in most national surveys, a classification incompatible with the proposed definition

Measuring Deprivation

Changes in dependence may or may not be associated with changes in the level of deprivation, depending on the alternative sources of support found by families who might otherwise be dependent on welfare. To assess the social impacts of any change in dependence, changes in the level of poverty or deprivation also should be considered. This chapter focuses on the poverty rate, the most common measure of deprivation; additional measures of poverty and need are also included under the Economic Risk Factors found in Chapter III.

As shown in Figure SUM 2, poverty rates for all individuals have declined between 1996 and 2000, under both the official poverty rate and other measures that adjust income to take into account cash benefits, non-cash benefits and taxes. The three measures in the graph are based on analyzing three different concepts of income against the poverty threshold:

The bold line shows the official poverty rate, based on total cash income, including earned and unearned income. The official poverty rate was 11.3 percent in 2000.

The dotted line with unfilled circles shows what poverty would be if means-tested cash assistance (primarily AFDC/TANF and SSI) were excluded from cash income. This measure includes earnings and other private cash income, plus social security, workers’ compensation, and other social insurance programs, as income. Poverty under this measure would be higher than the official measure, or 12.0 percent in 2000.

The lowest line shows that poverty would be lower if the cash value of selected non-cash benefits (food and housing) and taxes, including refunds under the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), were counted as income.2 Under this definition, poverty rates in 2000 would be nearly two percentage points lower than the official measure, or 9.5 percent.

Figure SUM 2. Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: 1979-2000

Figure SUM 2.  Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: 1979-2000

Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of March CPS data. Additional calculations by DHHS. See ECON 4 in Chapter III for underlying table and further notes.

Using any of the three alternative measures, poverty rates decreased between 1996 and 2000. Furthermore, a comparison of Figures SUM 1 and SUM 2 suggests that economic deprivation decreased at the same time as the large decline in caseloads and welfare dependence. Between 1996 and 2000, the “after non-cash benefits and taxes” measure of poverty fell by two percentage points, from 11.5 to 9.5 percent. Over the same time period, the dependence measure also declined, from 5.2 percent to 3.3 percent. The combined effect of welfare reform and the strong economy has been to reduce dependence on welfare at the same time as reducing poverty.


2 The effects of selected non-cash benefits (food and housing) and taxes are shown separately in Figure ECON 4 in Chapter III. Prior to 1993, taxes increased poverty. Since 1993, taxes, including the refunds through the Earned Income Tax Credit, have caused reductions in poverty.

Data Sources

The primary data sources for this report are the Current Population Survey (CPS), the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID), and administrative data for the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp, and SSI programs. Beginning with the 2001 report on dependence, there was a shift to using CPS rather than SIPP data for several indicators and predictors of welfare recipiency and dependence. This change was necessary because the Census Bureau has been unable to update the SIPP data analyses beyond the 1995 data presented in prior reports.

If it were not for the lags in data availability, the SIPP would be considered the most useful national survey for measuring welfare dependency. It was used most extensively in the first three annual dependence reports. Its strengths are its longitudinal design, system of monthly accounting, and detail concerning employment, income and participation in federal income-support and related programs. These features make the SIPP particularly effective for capturing the complexities of program dynamics and it continues to be an important source of data in this report, particularly for measures related to AFDC spell duration and transitions in and out of AFDC recipiency, dependency and poverty. More recent SIPP data will be available for next year’s report, allowing examination of program dynamics under the TANF program.

For measures of receipt, dependency, and poverty at a single point in time, however, the report primarily uses the Annual March Demographic Supplement to the CPS, which measures income and poverty over an annual accounting period. The CPS data are available on a more timely basis than the SIPP, and have been widely used to measure trends since the welfare reform legislation of 1996. However, because the CPS does not collect income in the same detail as the SIPP, it has been subject to criticism for underreporting of income, particularly welfare income. To address this concern, some of the indicators in this report are based on CPS data that have been analyzed by the Transfer Income Model (TRIM3), a microsimulation model developed by the Urban Institute under contract to the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation. Although its primary purpose is to simulate program eligibility and the impact of policy proposals, the TRIM model has also been used to correct for underreporting of welfare receipt and benefits. Welfare caseloads in TRIM3 are based on CPS data, adjusted upward to ensure that total estimates of recipients equal the total counts from administrative data. Even with these adjustments, some measurement differences between the CPS/TRIM data and SIPP data remain.

As shown in Figure SUM 3, the overall measures of dependency and recipiency have not been greatly affected by the change in data sources. Both data sources show a decline in dependence between 1993 and 1995, from 5.9 to 5.1 percent under the SIPP data, and from 5.9 to 5.3 percent under the TRIM-adjusted CPS data. Still, readers are cautioned against comparing measures for 1987-1995 from the SIPP data in the first three annual reports with the measures for 1996-1999 from the TRIM-adjusted CPS data. In Chapter II, indicators using the CPS data have been analyzed for every year since 1993 (the first year for which TRIM-adjusted CPS data are available), providing a new time series of how the indicators are changing over time from a consistent data source.

Figure SUM 3. Recipiency and Dependency Rates from Two Data Sources: 1987-1999

Figure SUM 3. Recipiency and Dependency Rates from Two Data Sources: 1987-1999

Note:  Recipiency is defined as receipt of any amount of AFDC/TANF, SSI, or food stamps during year. Dependency is defined as having more than 50 percent of annual family income from AFDC/TANF, SSI and/or food stamps. Dependency rates would be lower if adjusted to exclude welfare assistance associated with working.

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

The Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) is another source of data used in this report. Like the SIPP it provides longitudinal data, but over a much longer time period than the approximate three-year time period of the SIPP. The PSID has collected annual income data, including transfer income, since 1968, providing vital data for indicators of long-term welfare receipt, dependence, and deprivation. As with the SIPP data, there have been lags in obtaining updated PSID data. This 2002 report provides the first updated analysis of PSID data since the initial Indicators of Welfare Dependence report issued several years ago. The PSID data are now reported for the ten-year time period ending in 1996, as well as for two earlier ten-year time periods.

Finally, the report also draws upon administrative data for the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI programs. These data are largely reported in Appendix A. Like the CPS data, administrative data are generally available with little time lags; these data are generally available through fiscal year 2000 (or, for some aggregate caseload statistics, fiscal year 2001). To the extent possible, TANF administrative data are reported in a consistent manner with data from the earlier AFDC program, as noted in the footnotes to the tables in Appendix A. The fact remains that assistance under locally designed TANF programs encompasses a diverse set of cash and non-cash benefits designed to support families in making a transition to work, and so direct comparisons between AFDC receipt and TANF receipt must be made with caution. This issue also affects reported data on TANF receipt in national data sets such as the CPS and SIPP.

Most of the data sources allow analysis of the indicators and predictors of welfare dependence across several age and racial/ethnic categories. Where the data are available, statistics are shown for three racial/ethnic groups — non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Hispanics.3 In some instances, however, there are not sufficient data on individuals of Hispanic origin, and so the measures are shown for only two racial/ethnic categories.

Three other technical notes, and technical changes to two work-related predictors of dependence, concern the unit of analysis and the difference between annual and monthly measures. The individual, rather than the family or household, is the unit of analysis for most of the statistics in this report. The individual’s dependency status, however, is generally based on total family income, taking into account means-tested assistance, earnings and other sources of income for all individuals in the family. 4This chapter, for example, has reported the percentage of individuals that are dependent (in SUM 1) or poor (in SUM 2) according to annual total family income. Recipiency status is also based on total annual family income in some instances; in SUM 1, for example, recipients are individuals in families receiving assistance at some point in the year. In most other indicators, recipiency is measured as the direct receipt of a benefit by an individual in a month. The difference between an individual and a family measure of recipiency is largest in the SSI program, which provides benefits to individuals and couples, not to families.

There also are differences between monthly and annual observation of benefit receipt. For example, the measures of annual recipiency (that is, any receipt over the course of a year) shown in Figure and Table SUM 1 are higher than the more traditional measures of recipiency in an average month, as shown in several other indicators.

Finally, data sources for two work-related risk factors have been modified this year to allow for their annual update in future reports. The data source for WORK 6, dealing with alcohol and substance abuse among adults, is still the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA). However, as a result of a change in methodology in the NHSDA, the data from 1999 and 2000 are not comparable to earlier data. Thus, while the 2002 report includes only the 1999 and 2000 data, this risk factor can be updated in the future. In addition, past versions of work-related risk factor WORK 7, which deals with disability in adults and children, have used unpublished data from a 1994 disability supplement to the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). As this was a one-time supplement, this risk factor has not been updated since the first indicators report in 1997. The 2002 report uses data from the annual NHIS, specifically the 2000 survey, to provide similar data that will be updated in future reports; however, these data should not be compared with disability risk factors from previous reports.


3Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska natives and Asian/Pacific Islanders are included in the totals but are not shown separately.

4Family is generally defined as following the broad Census Bureau definition of family — all persons residing together that are related by birth, marriage, or adoption.

Chapter II: Indicators of Dependence

Following the format of the previous annual reports to Congress, Chapter II presents summary data related to indicators of dependence. These indicators differ from other welfare statistics because of their emphasis on welfare dependence, rather than simple welfare receipt. As discussed in Chapter I, the Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators suggested measuring dependence as the proportion of families with more than 50 percent of their total income in a one-year period coming from AFDC (now TANF), food stamps and/or SSI. Furthermore, this welfare income was not to be associated with work activities.

The indicators in Chapter II were selected to provide information about dependence, following, to the extent feasible, the definition of dependence proposed by the Advisory Board. Existing data from administrative records and national surveys, however, do not generally distinguish welfare benefits received in conjunction with work from benefits received without work. Thus, it was not possible to construct one single indicator of dependence; that is, one indicator that measures both percentage of income from means-tested assistance and presence of work activities.

Instead, this chapter includes some indicators that focus on the percentage of recipients’ income from means-tested assistance, while other indicators focus on presence of work activities at the same time as welfare receipt. Still other indicators present summary data and characteristics on all recipients, not limited to those with more than 50 percent of total income from welfare programs or those without work activities.

Overall, the indicators of dependency were selected to reflect both the range and depth of dependence. This chapter focuses on recipients of three major means-tested cash and nutritional assistance programs: cash assistance through the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) programs, Supplemental Security Income (SSI) for elderly and disabled recipients, and the Food Stamp Program.

Here is a brief summary of each of the eleven indicators:

Indicator 1: Degree of Dependence. This indicator focuses most closely on those individuals who meet the Advisory Board’s proposed definition of “dependence.” In addition to examining individuals with more than 50 percent of their annual family income from AFDC/TANF, food stamps and/or SSI, it shows various levels of dependence by examining those with more than 0 percent, 25 percent, and 75 percent of their income from these sources (Indicators 1a and 1b). This indicator also shows the average percentage of income from means-tested assistance and earnings received by families with various levels of income relative to the poverty level (Indicators 1c and 1d).

Indicator 2: Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment. This indicator looks further at the relationship between receipt of means-tested assistance and participation in the labor force. This is an important issue because of the significant number of low-income individuals who use a combination of means-tested assistance and earnings from the labor force to get by each month.

Indicator 3: Rates of Receipt of Means-Tested Assistance. This indicator paints yet another picture of dependence by measuring recipiency rates, that is, the percentage of the population that receives AFDC/TANF, food stamps, or SSI in an average month. Program administrative data make these figures readily available over time, allowing a better sense of historical trends than is available from the more specialized indicators of dependence.

Indicator 4: Rates of Participation in Means-Tested Assistance Programs. While means-tested public assistance programs are open to all that meet their requirements, not all eligible households participate in the programs. This indicator uses administrative data and microsimulation models to reflect “take up rates” — the number of families that actually participate in the programs as a percentage of those who are legally eligible.

Indicator 5: Multiple Program Receipt. Depending on their circumstances, individuals may choose a variety of different means-tested assistance “packages.” This indicator looks at the percentage of individuals receiving AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI in a month, examining how many rely on just one of these programs, and how many rely on a combination of two programs.

Indicator 6: Dependence Transitions. This indicator uses data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to look at the ability of individuals who are dependent on welfare in one year to make the transition out of dependence in the following year.

Indicator 7: Dependence Spell Duration. Like Indicator 6, this indicator is concerned with dynamics of welfare receipt and welfare dependence. It shows the proportion of individuals with short, medium, and long spells, or episodes, of AFDC receipt. The focus is on individuals in AFDC families with no labor force participants.

Indicator 8: Program Spell Duration. One critical aspect of dependence is how long individuals receive means-tested assistance. Like Indicator 7, this indicator provides information on short, medium, and long spells of welfare receipt. It differs from Indicator 7 in looking at all recipients, regardless of attachment to the labor force, and in analyzing recipients of each of the three major means-tested programs — AFDC, food stamps, and SSI.

Indicator 9: Long-Term Dependency. This indicator uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to examine dependency over three separate ten-year time periods. It measures dependency as individuals with more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and food stamps, not counting SSI.

Indicator 10: Long-Term Receipt. Many individuals who leave welfare programs cycle back on after an absence of several months. Thus it is important to look beyond individual program spells, measured in Indicator 8, to examine the cumulative amount of time individuals receive assistance over a period of several years. The issue of long-term receipt is particularly important in light of time limits that have been enacted under state TANF programs.

Indicator 11: Events Associated with the Beginning and Ending of Program Spells. To gain a better understanding of welfare dynamics, it is important to go beyond measures of spell duration and examine information regarding the major events in people’s lives that are correlated with the beginnings or endings of program spells. This measure focuses on receipt of AFDC.

Indicator 1. Degree of Dependence

Figure IND 1a.Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs: 1999

Figure IND 1a. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs: 1999

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

  • About 3.3 percent of the total population in 1999 received more than half of their total family income from TANF, food stamps and SSI. As shown in Table IND1b, the percentage of families dependent on public assistance steadily decreased over the past several years.
  • A total of 13.3 percent of the overall population received at least one dollar in means-tested assistance in 1999. However, for over half of these individuals (7.7 percent of the total population), such assistance represented 25 percent or less of annual family income. The vast majority (87 percent) of the population received no means-tested assistance in 1999.
  • Very young children (birth to five years) were more likely than children of other ages to be in families receiving some amount of public assistance. As shown in Table IND 1a, 6 percent of very young children were dependent on public assistance in 1999.
  • In 1999, only one out of four of individuals receiving some public assistance reported that TANF, food stamps, and SSI accounted for more than half of their total family income. This number showed a decline in dependence since 1996, when nearly one in three individuals receiving public assistance were dependent on it.

Table IND 1a. Percentage of Total Annual Family Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs, by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 1999

  0% >0% and <= 25% >25% and <= 50% >50% and <= 75% >75% and <= 100% Total > 50%
All Persons 86.7 7.7 2.3 1.1 2.2 3.3

Non-Hispanic White

91.7 5.3 1.2 0.7 1.2 1.8

Non-Hispanic Black

70.2 14.5 6.2 3.0 6.1 9.1

Hispanic

76.6 13.5 4.5 1.9 3.5 5.4

Children Ages 0-5

78.5 11.3 4.0 2.3 3.9 6.2

Children Ages 6-10

80.2 9.9 3.8 2.5 3.6 6.1

Children Ages 11-15

82.7 9.3 3.6 1.8 2.7 4.4

Women Ages 16-64

86.5 7.9 2.2 1.2 2.3 3.5

Men Ages 16-64

90.4 6.4 1.4 0.6 1.4 1.9

Adults Age 65 and over

90.0 6.2 1.9 0.6 1.4 2.0

Note:  Means-tested assistance includes AFDC/TANF, SSI, and food stamps. Total >50% includes all persons with more than 50 percent of their total annual family income from these means-tested programs. Income includes cash income and the value of food stamps.

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 1b. Percentage of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs: 1993-1999

  0% >0% and <= 25% >25% and <= 50% >50% and <= 75% >75% and <= 100% Total > 50%
1993 83.4 7.8 3.0 1.8 4.1 5.9
1994 82.8 8.4 3.1 1.8 4.0 5.8
1995 83.2 8.5 3.1 1.8 3.5 5.3
1996 84.0 7.8 3.1 1.9 3.3 5.2
1997 85.3 7.7 2.5 1.5 3.1 4.5
1998 86.5 7.3 2.5 1.3 2.5 3.8
1999 86.7 7.7 2.3 1.1 2.2 3.3

Note:  Means-tested assistance includes AFDC/TANF, SSI, and food stamps. Total >50% includes all persons with more than 50 percent of their total annual family income from these means-tested programs. Income includes cash income and the value of food stamps.

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Figure IND 1c.  Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status: 1999

Figure IND 1c.  Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status: 1999

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

  • Those in families with incomes below the poverty level received nearly half (49 percent) of their total family income from earnings and 30 percent of their total family income from means-tested assistance programs (AFDC/TANF, SSI, and food stamps) in 1999. In contrast, those with family incomes over 200 percent of the poverty level received the majority (85 percent) of their incomes from earnings and less than one percent of their income from means-tested assistance (a percentage so small as to not be visible in Figure IND 1c).
  • The percentage of family income received from earnings is inversely proportional to overall family income relative to the poverty line. For example, the percentage of income received from earnings for those living in deep poverty (below 50 percent of poverty) was only 30 percent, compared to 49 percent for all poor individuals in 1999.
  • On average, children were more likely than the elderly to live in families receiving a higher percentage of their income from means-tested assistance programs, as shown by Table IND 1c. The elderly received more income from other sources, such as Social Security benefits and private pensions.
  • The percentage of income received from earnings for families with incomes below the poverty level has increased over time, as shown in Table IND 1d. In 1995, poor families received 40 percent of their incomes from earnings; this percentage rose to 49 percent in 1999.

Table IND 1c. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources, by Poverty Status, Race/Ethnicity, and Age: 1999

  < 50% poverty <100% of poverty <200% of poverty 200%+ of poverty

All Persons

       

TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps

53.1 29.8 9.7 0.2

Earnings

30.2 49.3 69.1 85.0

Other Income

16.6 20.8 21.2 14.7

Racial/Ethnic Categories

       

Non-Hispanic White

       

TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps

46.8 25.9 6.7 0.1

Earnings

30.0 45.9 65.4 84.2

Other Income

23.2 28.2 27.8 15.7

Non-Hispanic Black

       

TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps

62.0 41.1 16.7 0.5

Earnings

24.8 39.2 63.9 87.1

Other Income

13.2 19.8 19.4 12.4

Hispanic

       

TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps

49.7 25.2 9.9 0.6

Earnings

38.0 63.2 80.0 90.7

Other Income

12.3 11.6 10.1 8.7

Age Categories

       

Children Ages 0-5

       

TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps

61.1 33.5 11.8 0.3

Earnings

26.8 56.2 80.0 93.0

Other Income

12.2 10.3 8.2 6.8

Children Ages 6-10

       

TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps

60.0 33.9 11.4 0.2

Earnings

27.0 52.7 78.0 91.9

Other Income

13.0 13.3 10.7 8.0

Children Ages 11-15

       

TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps

56.6 31.7 10.8 0.2

Earnings

26.6 51.5 75.2 90.8

Other Income

16.8 16.8 13.9 9.0

Women Ages 16-64

       

TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps

49.8 31.6 10.7 0.2

Earnings

32.9 48.5 72.5 88.0

Other Income

17.3 19.9 16.9 11.8

Men Ages 16-64

       

TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps

40.4 23.7 7.6 0.2

Earnings

40.7 55.3 76.4 89.1

Other Income

19.0 21.0 16.1 10.7

Adults Age 65 and over

       

TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps

25.3 18.7 6.3 0.4

Earnings

2.6 4.9 10.5 34.1

Other Income

72.1 76.4 83.1 65.5

Note:  Total income is total annual family income, including the value of food stamps. Other income is non means-tested, non-earnings income such as child support, alimony, pensions, Social Security benefits, interest, and dividends. Poverty status categories are not mutually exclusive.

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 1d. Percentage of Total Income from Various Sources: Selected Years

  < 50% poverty <100% of poverty <200% of poverty 200%+ of poverty
1995        
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 65.9 41.3 14.2 0.3
Earnings 22.5 40.4 64.8 85.4
Other Income 11.6 18.3 21.0 14.3
1998        
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 58.9 32.0 10.6 0.2
Earnings 27.0 47.9 67.8 85.3
Other Income 14.1 20.1 21.6 14.5
1999        
TANF, SSI, and Food Stamps 53.1 29.8 9.7 0.2
Earnings 30.2 49.3 69.1 85.0
Other Income 16.6 20.8 21.2 14.7

Note:  Total income is total annual family income, including the value of food stamps. Other income is non means-tested, non-earnings income such as child support, alimony, pensions, Social Security benefits, interest, and dividends. Poverty status categories are not mutually exclusive.

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Indicator 2. Receipt of Means-tested Assistance and Labor Force Attachment

Figure IND 2. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Program: 1999

Figure IND 2. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Program: 1999

  • In 1999, 59 percent of individuals who received TANF, 58 percent of individuals who received food stamps, and 39 percent of individuals who received SSI were in families with at least one person in the labor force, either part-time or full-time.
  • Over one-third of TANF and food stamp recipients lived in families with at least one full-time worker in 1999, while slightly less than one-fourth had a part-time labor force participant. In contrast, SSI recipients were more likely to live in families with no labor force participant.
  • As shown in Table IND 2a, among recipients of TANF, food stamps, and SSI, a larger percentage of children under age 6 were in families with at least one full-time worker than children ages 6 to 15.
  • The percentage of AFDC/TANF recipients living in families with at least one full-time worker increased from 24 percent in 1996 to 36 percent in 1999, as shown in Table IND 2b.

Table IND 2a. Percentage of Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Program, Race/Ethnicity, and Age: 1999

  No one in LF At least one in LF, 
No one FT
At least one FT worker
TANF
All Persons 40.8 24.1 35.1
Non-Hispanic White 36.7 26.1 37.2
Non-Hispanic Black 47.9 27.1 24.9
Hispanic 42.2 17.0 40.8

Children Ages 0-5

39.7 21.6 38.7
Children Ages 6-10 47.1 24.6 28.3
Children Ages 11-15 43.8 21.8 34.4
Women Ages 16-64 40.1 25.6 34.3
Men Ages 16-64 29.9 30.1 40.0
Adults Age 65 and over 33.6 2.7 63.7
SSI
All Persons 61.5 9.5 29.1
Non-Hispanic White 68.0 7.8 24.2
Non-Hispanic Black 61.9 12.2 25.9
Hispanic 47.6 10.5 41.9
Children Ages 0-5 26.4 15.9 57.7
Children Ages 6-10 36.2 20.0 43.8
Children Ages 11-15 31.2 18.8 50.1
Women Ages 16-64 68.7 9.4 21.9
Men Ages 16-64 64.7 8.7 26.6
Adults Age 65 and over 63.7 6.6 29.7
Food Stamps
All Persons 42.5 22.5 35.0
Non-Hispanic White 44.5 21.2 34.2
Non-Hispanic Black 43.0 25.2 31.8
Hispanic 39.0 18.8 42.3

Children Ages 0-5

34.9 22.8 42.3
Children Ages 6-10 36.0 25.2 38.8
Children Ages 11-15 36.6 23.1 40.4
Women Ages 16-64 42.6 24.4 33.0
Men Ages 16-64 40.8 22.8 36.4
Adults Age 65 and over 88.4 6.2 5.4

Note:  Recipients are limited to those individuals or family members directly receiving benefits in a month. Full-time workers are those who usually work 35 hours or more per week. Part-time labor force participation includes part-time workers and those who are unemployed, laid off, and/or looking for work. This indicator measures, on an average monthly basis, the combination of individual benefit receipt and labor force participation by any family member in the same month.

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 2b. Percentage of AFDC/TANF Recipients in Families with Labor Force Participants: 1993-1999

  No one in LF At least one in LF, No one FT At least one FT worker
1993 57.0 24.2 18.8
1994 54.8 24.8 20.4
1995 50.6 24.3 25.1
1996 50.1 25.6 24.3
1997 47.6 28.0 24.4
1998 44.3 25.8 29.9
1999 40.8 24.1 35.1

Note:  Recipients are limited to those individuals or family members directly receiving benefits in a month. Full-time workers are those who usually work 35 hours or more per week. Part-time labor force participation includes those who are unemployed, laid off, and/or looking for work. This indicator measures, on an average monthly basis, the combination of individual benefit receipt and labor force participation by any family member in the same month.

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Indicator 3. Rates of Receipt of Means-tested Assistance

Figure IND 3a. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age: 1970-2000

Figure IND 3a. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age: 1970-2000

Source:  U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, United States Census 2000, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

  • Although the survey data needed to examine overall welfare receipt and dependency are not yet available past 1999, administrative data for AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI provide measures of recipiency for each of these three programs through 2000, as shown in Figures IND 3a, IND 3b, and IND 3c. Additional administrative data are shown in Appendix A.
  • Just over 2 percent of the population received TANF in 2000. This is the lowest rate of AFDC/TANF receipt in the 30 years shown in Table IND 3a. The percentage of the total population receiving AFDC/TANF has dropped significantly since 1994, when it was at a 25-year high of over 5 percent.
  • AFDC/TANF recipiency rates have been much higher over time for children than for adults, with the child recipiency rates also showing more pronounced changes over time. Between 1996 and 2000, the receipt of AFDC/TANF receipt among children was cut in half (from 12 to 6 percent), the most rapid decline in a generation.

Table IND 3a. Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving AFDC/TANF, by Age: 1970-2000

  Total Recipients Adult Recipients Child Recipients
Fiscal Year Number
(thousands)

Percent

Number 
(thousands)

Percent

Number
(thousands)

Percent

1970 7,188 3.5 1,863 1.4 5,325 7.6
1971 9,281 4.5 2,516 1.8 6,765 9.7
1972 10,345 4.9 2,848 2.0 7,497 10.8
1973 10,760 5.1 2,984 2.1 7,776 11.3
1974 10,591 5.0 2,935 2.0 7,656 11.3
1975 10,854 5.0 3,078 2.1 7,776 11.6
1976 11,171 5.1 3,271 2.2 7,900 11.9
1977 10,933 5.0 3,230 2.1 7,703 11.8
1978 10,485 4.7 3,128 2.0 7,357 11.4
1979 10,146 4.5 3,071 1.9 7,075 11.0
1980 10,422 4.6 3,226 2.0 7,196 11.3
1981 10,979 4.8 3,491 2.1 7,488 11.8
1982 10,233 4.4 3,395 2.0 6,838 10.9
1983 10,467 4.5 3,548 2.1 6,919 11.1
1984 10,677 4.5 3,652 2.1 7,025 11.2
1985 10,630 4.5 3,589 2.0 7,041 11.2
1986 10,810 4.5 3,637 2.1 7,173 11.4
1987 10,878 4.5 3,624 2.0 7,254 11.5
1988 10,734 4.4 3,536 2.0 7,198 11.4
1989 10,741 4.4 3,503 1.9 7,238 11.4
1990 11,263 4.5 3,643 2.0 7,620 11.9
1991 12,391 4.9 4,016 2.1 8,375 12.9
1992 13,423 5.3 4,336 2.3 9,087 13.7
1993 13,943 5.4 4,519 2.4 9,424 14.1
1994 14,033 5.4 4,554 2.4 9,479 14.0
1995 13,479 5.1 4,322 2.2 9,157 13.4
1996 12,477 4.7 3,921 2.0 8,556 12.4
1997 10,785 4.0 3,112 1.6 7,673 11.0
1998 8,660 3.2 2,581 1.3 6,078 8.7
1999 7,084 2.6 1,977 1.0 5,107 7.3
2000 5,891 2.1 1,559 0.7 4,331 6.0

Notes: See Appendix A, Tables TANF 2, TANF 12, and TANF 14, for more detailed data on recipiency rates, including recipiency rates by calendar year. Recipients are expressed as the fiscal year average of monthly caseloads from administrative data, excluding recipients in the territories. Child recipients include a small number of dependents ages 18 and older who are students. The average number of adult and child recipients in 1998 and 1999 is estimated using data from the Emergency TANF Data Report.

Source:  U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, United States Census 2000, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

Figure IND 3b. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age: 1975-2000

Figure IND 3b.  Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age: 1975-2000

Source:  USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 2000, and earlier reports, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, United States Census 2000, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

Table IND 3b. Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving Food Stamps, by Age: 1975-2000

  Total Recipients Adult Recipients Age 60 and over Adult Recipients Ages 18-59 Child Recipients Ages 0-18
Fiscal Year Number
(thousands)
Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent
1975 17,217 8.0
1976 16,733 7.7 9,126 13.8
1977 15,579 7.1
1978 14,503 6.5
1979 15,976 7.1
1980 19,253 8.5 1,741 4.9 7,186 5.6 9,876 15.5
1981 20,654 9.0 1,845 5.0 7,811 6.0 9,803 15.5
1982 20,446 8.8 1,641 4.4 7,838 6.0 9,591 15.3
1983 21,667 9.3 1,654 4.4 8,960 6.7 10,910 17.4
1984 20,796 8.8 1,758 4.5 8,521 6.3 10,492 16.8
1985 19,847 8.3 1,783 4.5 8,258 6.1 9,906 15.8
1986 19,381 8.1 1,631 4.1 7,895 5.7 9,844 15.7
1987 19,072 7.9 1,589 3.9 7,684 5.5 9,771 15.5
1988 18,613 7.6 1,500 3.7 7,506 5.3 9,351 14.8
1989 18,778 7.6 1,582 3.8 7,560 5.3 9,429 14.9
1990 20,038 8.0 1,511 3.6 8,084 5.6 10,127 15.8
1991 22,599 9.0 1,593 3.8 9,190 6.4 11,952 18.4
1992 25,369 9.9 1,687 3.9 10,550 7.2 13,349 20.2
1993 26,952 10.5 1,876 4.4 11,214 7.6 14,196 21.2
1994 27,434 10.6 1,952 4.5 11,539 7.7 14,391 21.2
1995 26,579 10.1 1,896 4.3 10,962 7.3 13,860 20.2
1996 25,494 9.6 1,892 4.3 10,766 7.1 13,189 19.1
1997 22,820 8.5 1,834 4.1 9,385 6.1 11,847 17.0
1998 19,746 7.3 1,637 3.7 7,772 5.0 10,524 15.1
1999 18,146 6.7 1,699 3.8 7,090 4.5 9,354 13.3
2000 17,120 6.2 1,702 3.7 6,623 4.2 8,765 12.4

Note:  See Appendix A, Tables FSP 1 and FSP 6 for more detailed data on recipiency rates. Recipients are expressed as the fiscal year average of monthly caseloads from administrative data, excluding recipients in the territories.

Source:  USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 2000, and earlier reports, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, United States Census 2000, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

Figure IND 3c. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975-2000

Figure IND 3c. Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975-2000

Source:  Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin · Annual Statistical Supplement · 2001 (Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics), and U.S. Bureau of the Census, United States Census 2000, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

  • Unlike the recipiency rates for AFDC/TANF and food stamps, which have been influenced by outside factors such as the economy and welfare reform, overall recipiency rates for SSI show less variation over time. After trending downward slightly from 1975 to the early 1980s, the proportion of the total population that receives SSI has risen from 1.7 percent in 1983 to 2.5 percent in 1996 and subsequently declined slightly to 2.3 percent. As shown in Table IND 3c, the total number of recipients has grown by 70Unlike the recipiency rates for AFDC/TANF and food stamps, which have be
  • Elderly adults (age 65 and older) have much higher recipiency rates than any other age group. The gap has narrowed, however, as the percentage of adults age 65 and older receiving SSI has been cut nearly in half, declining from 10.9 percent in 1975 to 5.7 percent in 2000.
  • The proportion of children receiving SSI increased gradually between 1975 and 1990, and grew more rapidly in the early-to-mid 1990s, reaching a high of 1.4 percent in 1996. The rate has since fallen slightly, with 1.2 percent of children receiving SSI in 2000.

Table IND 3c. Number and Percentage of the Total Population Receiving SSI, by Age: 1975-2000

  Total Recipients Adult Recipients Age 65 & over Adult Recipients Ages 18-64 Child Recipients Ages 0-18
Date Number
(thousands)
Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent
Dec 1975 4,314 2.0 2,508 10.9 1,699 1.3 107 0.2
Dec 1976 4,236 1.9 2,397 10.2 1,714 1.3 125 0.2
Dec 1977 4,238 1.9 2,353 9.7 1,738 1.3 147 0.2
Dec 1978 4,217 1.9 2,304 9.3 1,747 1.3 166 0.3
Dec 1979 4,150 1.8 2,246 8.8 1,727 1.3 177 0.3
Dec 1980 4,142 1.8 2,221 8.6 1,731 1.2 190 0.3
Dec 1981 4,019 1.7 2,121 8.0 1,703 1.2 195 0.3
Dec 1982 3,858 1.7 2,011 7.4 1,655 1.2 192 0.3
Dec 1983 3,901 1.7 2,003 7.3 1,700 1.2 198 0.3
Dec 1984 4,029 1.7 2,037 7.2 1,780 1.2 212 0.3
Dec 1985 4,138 1.7 2,031 7.1 1,879 1.3 227 0.4
Dec 1986 4,269 1.8 2,018 6.9 2,010 1.3 241 0.4
Dec 1987 4,385 1.8 2,015 6.7 2,119 1.4 251 0.4
Dec 1988 4,464 1.8 2,006 6.6 2,203 1.5 255 0.4
Dec 1989 4,593 1.9 2,026 6.5 2,302 1.5 265 0.4
Dec 1990 4,817 1.9 2,059 6.5 2,450 1.6 309 0.5
Dec 1991 5,118 2.0 2,080 6.5 2,642 1.7 397 0.6
Dec 1992 5,566 2.2 2,100 6.5 2,910 1.9 556 0.8
Dec 1993 5,984 2.3 2,113 6.4 3,148 2.0 723 1.1
Dec 1994 6,296 2.4 2,119 6.3 3,335 2.1 841 1.2
Dec 1995 6,514 2.5 2,115 6.3 3,482 2.2 917 1.3
Dec 1996 6,630 2.5 2,110 6.2 3,568 2.2 955 1.4
Dec 1997 6,495 2.4 2,054 6.0 3,562 2.2 880 1.3
Dec 1998 6,566 2.4 2,033 5.9 3,646 2.2 887 1.3
Dec 1999 6,557 2.4 2,019 5.8 3,691 2.2 847 1.2
Dec 2000 6,602 2.3 2,011 5.7 3,744 2.1 847 1.2

Note:  December population figures used as the denominators are obtained by averaging the Census Bureau's July 1 population estimates for the current and the following year (the December population estimates for the year 2000 are extrapolations of April 1, 2000 population figures). See Appendix A, Tables SSI 2, SSI 8, and SSI 9 for more detailed data on SSI recipiency rates. In this report the categories of children under 18 and adults 18-64 differ from those in previous editions where the category of children included a small number of dependents 18 and older who were students.

Source:  Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin · Annual Statistical Supplement · 2001 (Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics), and U.S. Bureau of the Census, United States Census 2000, (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

Indicator 4. Rates of Participation in Means-tested Assistance Programs

Figure IND 4. Participation Rates in the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Programs: Selected Years

Figure IND 4.  Participation Rates in the AFDC/TANF, Food Stamp and SSI Programs: Selected Years

Source:  AFDC and SSI participation rates are tabulated using TRIM3 microsimulation model, while food stamp participation rates are from a Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. model. See Tables IND 4a, IND 4b, and IND 4c for details.

  • Whereas Indicator 3 examined participants as a percentage of the total population (recipiency rates), this indicator examines participating families or households as a percentage of the estimated eligible population (participation rates, also known as “take up” rates).
  • Participation rates for both AFDC/TANF and the Food Stamp Program fell significantly between 1995 and 1999, with the sharpest decline between 1996 and 1998.
  • Only 52 percent of the families estimated as eligible for TANF actually enrolled and received benefits in an average month in 1999. This was significantly lower than AFDC participation rates, which ranged from 77 percent to 86 percent between 1981 and 1996. The food stamp participation rate in 1999 was also 52 percent, its lowest level since 1990.
  • In contrast to the declines in AFDC/TANF and Food Stamp Program participation, the SSI participation rate rose by more than 9 percentage points between 1993 and 1999. In 1999, the SSI participation rate was 74 percent, well above the rates for the other two programs.
  • Simulations of the AFDC/TANF eligible population show relatively small changes in the number of families eligible for benefits between 1995 and 1998. These data suggest that the large caseload declines between 1995 and 1998 were largely a result of declining participation or “take up” rates among the eligible populations. Between 1998 and 1999, however, the eligible population dropped by roughly 600,000 families, to the lowest level since 1990.

Table IND 4a. Number and Percentage of Eligible Families Participating in AFDC/TANF: Selected Years

  Eligible Families 
(in millions)
Participating Families 
(in millions)
Participation Rate
(percent)
1981 4.8 3.8 80.2
1983 4.7 3.7 77.7
1985 4.7 3.7 79.3
1987 4.9 3.8 76.7
1988 4.8 3.7 78.4
1989 4.5 3.8 83.6
1990 4.9 4.1 82.2
1992 5.6 4.8 85.7
1993 6.1 5.0 81.7
1994 6.1 5.0 82.6
1994 (revised) 6.1 5.0 82.1
1995 5.7 4.8 84.3
1996 5.6 4.4 78.9
1997 5.5 3.7 67.5
1997 (adjusted) 5.4 3.7 69.2
1998 5.5 3.1 55.8
1999 4.9 2.6 52.3

Notes: Participation rates are estimated by an Urban Institute model (TRIM3) which uses CPS data to simulate AFDC/TANF eligibility and participation for an average month, by calendar year. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. Most notably, since 1994, the model has been revised to more accurately estimate SSI participation among children, and since 1997 the model was adjusted to more accurately exclude ineligible immigrants. The numbers of eligible and participating families shown above include the territories and pregnant women without children, even though these two small groups are excluded from the TRIM model. The numbers shown here implicitly assume that participation rates for the territories and for pregnant women with no other children are the same as for all other eligibles.

Source: DHHS, Administration for Children and Families caseload tabulations, and unpublished data from the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Table IND 4b. Number and Percentage of Eligible Households Participating in the Food Stamp Program: Selected Years

  Eligible Households
(in millions)
Participating Households 
(in millions)
Participation Rate 
(percent)
September 76 16.3 5.3 33
February 78 14.0 5.3 38
August 80 14.0 7.4 52
August 82 14.5 7.5 51
August 84 14.2 7.3 52
August 86 15.3 7.1 47
August 88 14.9 7.0 47
August 90 14.5 8.0 55
August 91 15.6 9.2 59
August 92 16.7 10.2 62
August 93 17.0 10.9 64
August 94 (o) 17.0 11.0 65
September 94 (r) 15.5 10.7 69
September 95 15.1 10.4 69
September 96 15.5 9.9 64
September 97 14.8 8.4 57
September 98 14.2 7.6 54
September 99 13.9 7.3 52

Note:  Eligible households estimated from a Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. model that uses CPS data to simulate the Food Stamp Program. Caseload data are from USDA, FNS program operations caseload data. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. Most notably, the model was revised in 1994 to produce more accurate (and lower) estimates of eligible households. The original 1994 estimate and estimates for previous years show higher estimates of eligibles and lower participation rates relative to the revised estimate for 1994 and estimates for subsequent years.

Source:  U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Trends in Food Stamp Program Participation Rates: 1994 to 1999.

  • The proportion of eligible households who participated in the Food Stamp program fell from 64 percent in 1996 to 52 percent in 1999, a drop of 12 percentage points. This is the fourth year in a row that there has been a decline in Food Stamp participation rates.
  • In addition, there was a decline in the number of households eligible for the Food Stamp program, from 15.5 million in September 1996 to just under 14 million in September 1999. This decline was driven by new eligibility restrictions on aliens and able-bodied adults without dependent children, growth in the economy, changes in the TANF program, and other factors.
  • The significant drop in participating households, from just under 10 million households in September 1996 to 7.3 million households in September 1999, reflects the combined effect of a decline in the eligible population and lower participation rates.

Table IND 4c. Percentage of Eligible Adult Units Participating in the SSI Program, by Type: 1993-1999

  All Adult Units One-Person Units Married-Couple Units
Aged Disabled
1993 62.0 57.0 71.0 37.0
1994 65.0 58.4 73.0 43.9
1995 69.1 64.9 74.0 52.2
1996 66.6 60.4 73.5 46.7
1997 71.1 62.7 79.4 49.1
1998 70.7 63.6 77.9 48.1
1999 74.3 65.8 83.3 47.8

Notes: Participation rates estimated using the TRIM3 microsimulation model, which uses CPS data to simulate SSI eligibility for an average month, by calendar year. There have been small changes in estimating methodology over time, due to model improvements and revisions to the CPS. In particular, the model was revised in 1997 to more accurately exclude ineligible immigrants. Thus the increased participation rate in 1997 is partly due to a revision in estimating methodology. Also note that the figure for married-couple units is based on very small sample sizes — married couple units were only about 7.5 percent of the eligible adults units and 5.1 percent of the units receiving SSI in the average month of 1998.

Source:  Unpublished data from the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

  • In contrast to the declining participation rates for the AFDC/TANF and Food Stamp programs, the participation rate for adult units in the SSI Program has been increasing, from 62 percent in 1993, to 74 percent in 1999. Note, however, that some of the apparent growth between 1996 and 1997 may be due to a revision in estimating methodology, as noted above.
  • In 1999, as in past years, disabled adults in one-person units had a higher participation rate (83 percent) than both aged adults in one-person units (66 percent) and adults in married-couple units (48 percent).

Indicator 5. Multiple Program Receipt

Figure IND 5. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs (TANF, Food Stamps, & SSI), Among Those Receiving Assistance: 1999

Figure IND 5.  Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs (TANF, Food Stamps, & SSI), Among Those Receiving Assistance: 1999

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

  • Of the 9 percent of the population in families receiving TANF, food stamps, or SSI benefits in an average month in 1998, nearly two-thirds (65 percent) received assistance from only one program. Most of these received food stamps or SSI benefits only. Another common pattern of benefit receipt, found in 24 percent of those with any receipt, was TANF and food stamps.
  • Children are more likely than others to live in families receiving TANF and/or food stamps. For example, 16 percent of children under six lived in families receiving any public assistance in an average month in 1999, and 6 percent of children under six lived in families receiving both TANF and food stamps, as shown in Table IND 5a.
  • The percentage of individuals receiving assistance from at least one program among AFDC/TANF, food stamps, and SSI in an average month decreased during the mid-to-late 1990s (from 12 percent in 1996 to less than 9 percent in 1999), as shown in Table IND 5b. The decline was most dramatic for those families receiving a combination of AFDC/TANF and food stamps.

Table IND 5a. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs (TANF, Food Stamps, SSI), by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 1999

 

Any Receipt

One Program Only

Two Programs
TANF FS SSI

TANF & FS

FS & SSI
All Persons 8.5 0.4 3.8 1.3 2.0 1.0
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 5.2 0.2 2.3 0.9 1.1 0.7
Non-Hispanic Black 21.2 0.4 10.8 2.3 5.0 2.6
Hispanic 13.8 1.4 5.7 2.0 3.6 1.1
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5 16.0 1.1 7.4 0.6 6.2 0.6
Children Ages 6-10 14.7 0.8 8.0 0.6 4.7 0.6
Children Ages 11-15 12.4 0.7 6.5 0.7 4.0 0.5
 
Women Ages 16-64 8.0 0.3 3.6 1.1 1.9 1.0
Men Ages 16-64 4.8 0.2 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.7
Adults Age 65 and over 7.6 0.0 1.9 3.5 0.0 2.2

Table IND 5b. Percentage of Population Receiving Assistance from Multiple Programs (AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps, SSI): 1993-1999

  Any Receipt One Program Only Two Programs
AFDC/ TANF FS SSI AFDC/TANF & FS FS & SSI
1993 12.6 0.6 5.2 1.1 4.8 1.0
1994 12.8 0.5 5.3 1.2 4.6 1.1
1995 12.3 0.4 5.0 1.2 4.5 1.1
1996 12.0 0.3 5.3 1.2 4.0 1.1
1997 10.2 0.4 4.3 1.3 3.1 1.0
1998 9.0 0.4 3.9 1.4 2.4 0.9
1999 8.5 0.4 3.8 1.3 2.0 1.0

Note:  Categories are mutually exclusive. SSI receipt based on individual receipt; AFDC/TANF and food stamp receipt based on full recipient unit. By definition, individuals may not receive both AFDC/TANF and SSI; hence, no individual receives benefits from all three programs. The percentage of individuals receiving assistance from any one program in an average month (shown here) is lower than the percentage residing in families receiving assistance over the course of a year (shown in Table SUM 1 in Chapter I and Table IND 1a in Chapter II).

Source:  March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.

Indicator 6. Dependence Transitions

Figure IND 6. Dependency Status in 1995 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 1994, by Race/Ethnicity

Figure IND 6. Dependency Status in 1995 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 1994, by Race/Ethnicity

Source:  Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

  • Nearly four-fifths (79 percent) of all recipients who received more than 50 percent of their total income from means-tested assistance programs in 1994 also received more than 50 percent of their total income from these same programs in 1995.
  • Of recipients who received more than 50 percent of their total income from AFDC, food stamps and SSI in 1994, a larger percentage of non-Hispanic whites became “less dependent” in 1995 (received 50 percent or less of their total income from means-tested assistance programs) compared to Hispanics and non-Hispanic blacks.
  • As shown in Table IND 6, a slightly larger percentage of women who received more than half of their total income from means-tested assistance programs in 1994 remained “dependent” in 1995 compared to the same percentage for men (79 percent compared to 73 percent).

Table IND 6. Dependency Status in 1995 of Persons Who Received More than 50 Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance in 1994, by Race/Ethnicity and Age

Individuals Receiving more than 50% of Income from Assistance in 1994  Total (000's) Percentage of Persons Receiving
No Aid in 1995 Up to 50% in 1995 Over 50% in 1995
All Persons 13,986 2.7 18.8 78.5
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 4,804 3.1 26.2 70.7
Non-Hispanic Black 4,710 2.3 19.2 78.5
Hispanic 3,418 2.9 11.6 85.5
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-5 3,185 2.0 18.6 79.4
Children Ages 6-10 2,102 0.6 17.8 81.6
Children Ages 11-15 1,724 1.6 19.5 78.9
 
Men Ages 16-64 1,866 2.5 18.7 72.6
Women Ages 16-64 4,472 7.1 20.4 78.8
Adults Age 65 and over 636 4.6 17.9 77.5

Note:  Means-tested assistance is defined as AFDC, food stamps, and SSI. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included within AFDC income. Individuals are defined as dependent if they reside in families with more than 50 percent of total annual family income from these means-tested programs. Because full calendar year data for 1995 were not available for all SIPP respondents, some transitions were based on twelve-month periods that did not correspond exactly to calendar years.

Source:  Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

Indicator 7. Dependence Spell Duration

Figure IND 7. Percentage of AFDC Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Figure IND 7. Percentage of AFDC Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Source:  Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

  • Forty-three percent of AFDC spells for individuals in families with no one in the labor force ended within a year. This measure is for individuals entering AFDC in 1993-1995, prior to enactment of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA).
  • Over one-quarter (27 percent) of AFDC spells for individuals in families where no one participated in the labor force lasted four months or less.
  • As shown in Table IND 7, a smaller percentage of AFDC spells to children in families with no labor force participants ended in four months or less compared to their adult counterparts (25 percent compared to 31 percent).
  • Spells shown in Figure IND 7 are limited to spells of recipients in families without any labor force participation. Spell lengths are shorter in Figure IND 8, which shows spells for all recipients, including those in families with labor force participants. For example, whereas only half (50 percent) of spells shown in Figure IND 7 end in 20 months or less, over two-thirds (69 percent) of all AFDC spells last 20 months or less, as shown in Figure IND 8.

Table IND 7. Percentage of AFDC Spells of Individuals in Families with No Labor Force Participants for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race/Ethnicity, and Age

  Spells <=4 months Spells <=12 months Spells <=20 months Spells >20 months
All Persons 27.2 43.4 50.3 49.7
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 30.2 40.7 43.0 57.0
Non-Hispanic Black 17.4 45.6 N/A N/A
Hispanic 33.2 N/A N/A N/A
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-15 24.7 41.9 49.1 50.9
Adults Ages 16-64 30.6 45.8 51.9 48.1

Note:  Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. AFDC spells are defined as those spells starting during the 1993 SIPP panel for individuals in families with no labor force participants. For certain racial/ethnic categories, data are not available (N/A) due to insufficient sample size.

Source:  Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

Indicator 8. Program Spell Duration

Figure IND 8. Percentage of AFDC, Food Stamp, and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Figure IND 8. Percentage of AFDC, Food Stamp, and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Source:  Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 Panel.

  • Between the years 1993 and 1995, short spells lasting 4 months or less accounted for 31 percent of AFDC spells, 24 percent of SSI spells, and 33 percent of food stamp spells.
  • Over one-half of all AFDC and food stamp spells lasted one year or less (56 percent and 60 percent, respectively). In contrast, only 32 percent of SSI spells ended within one year. The percentage of SSI spells that lasted more than 20 months is twice the percentage of AFDC and food stamp spells that lasted this long (see Table IND 5).
  • As shown in Table IND 8, for AFDC spells, a larger percentage of short spells (lasting 4 months or less) and a smaller percentage of long spells (lasting more than 20 months) occurred among non-Hispanic whites compared to non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics.
  • A larger percentage of AFDC and food stamp spells among adults ages 16 to 64 ended within 4 months compared to spells among children.
  • Short spells are less common among recipients in families without labor force participants, as shown previously in Figure and Table IND 7.

Table IND 8. Percentage of AFDC, Food Stamp and SSI Spells for Individuals Entering Programs During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race/Ethnicity, and Age

  Spells <=4 months Spells <=12 months Spells <=20 months Spells >20 months
AFDC
All Recipients 30.7 56.1 68.6 31.4

Racial/Ethnic Categories

 
Non-Hispanic White 35.6 62.2 72.3 27.7
Non-Hispanic Black 24.6 52.3 66.7 33.3
Hispanic 30.8 52.5 63.4 36.6

Age Categories

 
Children Ages 0-15 28.1 53.6 65.6 34.4
Adults Ages 16-64 33.5 59.0 72.2 27.8
SSI        
All Recipients 24.0 31.9 36.6 63.4

Racial/Ethnic Categories

 
Non-Hispanic White 27.2 34.6 40.8 59.2
Non-Hispanic Black 20.5 26.2 30.0 70.0
Hispanic 20.0 32.2 NA NA
Age Categories
Adults Ages 16-64 26.8 34.6 39.7 60.3

FOOD STAMPS

 
All Recipients 33.1 59.9 70.0 30.0

Racial/Ethnic Categories

 
Non-Hispanic White 34.3 62.1 71.5 28.5
Non-Hispanic Black 28.4 53.4 64.9 35.1
Hispanic 35.4 64.0 71.1 28.9

Age Categories

 
Children Ages 0-15 29.8 56.5 67.0 33.0
Adults Ages 16-64 35.9 63.0 72.8 27.2

Note:  Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. AFDC spells are defined as those starting during the 1993 SIPP Panel. For certain age and racial/etnic categories, data are not available (N/A) because of insufficient sample size. Data on SSI recipiency for children are not available (N/A).

Source:  Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 Panel.

Indicator 9. Long-term Dependency

Figure IND 9.Percentage of AFDC Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps Between 1987 and 1996, by Years of Dependency

Figure IND 9. Percentage of AFDC Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps Between 1987 and 1996, by Years of Dependency

Source:  Unpublished data from the PSID, 1988-1997.

  • Almost half (47 percent) of all persons who received AFDC at some point in the ten-year period ending in 1996 were not dependent on welfare in any of these years. Specifically, they did not receive more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and/or food stamps in any of the ten years (SSI receipt is excluded from this measure of dependency). This was also true for recipients in the two earlier ten-year time periods, as shown in Table IND 9.
  • About 14 percent of recipients in the most recent ten-year period were dependent (received more than 50 percent of annual income from AFDC and food stamps) for more than five years between 1987 and 1996. The 14 percent of recipients who were dependent for six or more years represent 1.7 percent of the total population. In addition, 16 percent of AFDC recipients were dependent for three to five years, and 24 percent were dependent for one or two years.
  • As shown in Table IND 9, young children (ages 0-5 in 1987) are more likely to experience long-term dependency than other individuals. About one-fourth (26 percent) of such children receiving AFDC at least once between 1987 and 1996 were dependent on AFDC and food stamp income for six or more years. Another 45 percent were dependent for one to five years, and only 28 percent were not dependent in any year.

Table IND 9. Percentage of AFDC Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps Across Three Ten-Year Time Periods, by Years of Dependency, Race, and Age

Between 1967 and 1976:

  All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5 in 1967
Years Dependent: All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
0 Years 47.9 33.0 56.2 37.1 25.0 44.3
1-2 Years 23.2 25.6 21.9 26.6 23.6 28.4
3-5 Years 17.5 22.3 14.8 22.2 27.0 19.3
6-8 Years 8.0 12.3 5.7 9.4 15.5 5.8
9-10 Years 3.3 6.8 1.4 4.7 8.9 2.2

Between 1977 and 1986:

  All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5 in 1977

Years Dependent:

All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
0 Years 49.5 38.8 56.2 32.0 18.9 40
1-2 Years 23.7 24.0 23.5 26.6 25.1 27.6
3-5 Years 12.4 15.4 10.5 14.1 19.4 10.9
6-8 Years 9.0 12.0 7.1 15.0 15.0 15.0
9-10 Years 5.5 9.9 2.8 12.2 21.7 6.5

Between 1987 and 1996:

  All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5 in 1987

Years Dependent:

All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
0 Years 46.5 35.5 54.5 28.2 18.8 37.9
1-2 Years 23.6 22.7 24.2 22.4 21.1 23.8
3-5 Years 16.2 17.9 14.9 23.0 21.8 24.2
6-8 Years 8.0 14.1 3.5 15.3 23.0 7.3
9-10 Years 5.8 9.8 2.9 11.0 15.3 6.8

Note:  The base for the percentages consists of individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC in any year in the ten-year period. Footnotes in previous reports erroneously defined the base for these percentages as individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC in the first year of the ten-year period. The current table is based on the same methodology used to compute estimates for earlier reports. Child recipients are defined by age in the first year of the 10-year period. This measures years of dependency over the specified ten-year time periods and does not take into account years of dependency that may have occurred before or after the ten-year period.

Source:  Unpublished data from the PSID 1968-93 final release files and 1994-1997 unreleased preliminary data as of January, 2002.

Indicator 10. Long-term Receipt

Figure IND 10. Percentage of AFDC Recipients, by Years of Receipt Between 1987 and 1996

Figure IND 10.  Percentage of AFDC Recipients, by Years of Receipt Between 1987 and 1996

Source:  Unpublished data from the PSID, 1988-1997.

  • Among all persons receiving AFDC at some point in the ten-year period ending in 1996, about half (51 percent) received assistance for only one or two of these years. About one quarter (27 percent) received AFDC for three to five years, and close to one quarter (22 percent) received AFDC for more than five years.
  • As shown in Table IND 10, compared to non-black recipients, a large percentage of black recipients received AFDC for more than five years in all three ten-year time periods.
  • A larger percentage of child recipients experienced long-term receipt and a smaller percentage experienced short-term receipt in all three time periods relative to the percentages for all recipients, as shown in Table IND 10.
  • The percentage of AFDC recipients with long-term assistance (at least six years) is somewhat lower in the most recent ten-year time period — 22 percent — than in the earlier two time periods (28 and 26 percent).
  • Whereas nearly one-quarter (22 percent) of recipients received at least some AFDC for six or more years between 1987 and 1996 (as shown in Figure IND 10), only 14 percent of recipients received more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and food stamps for six or more years over the same time period (as previously shown in Figure IND 9).

Table IND 10: Percentage of AFDC Recipients Across Three Ten-Year Time Periods by Years of Receipt, Race, and Age 

Between 1967 and 1976:

  All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5 in 1967
Years received AFDC: All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
1-2 Years 46.8 32.2 54.9 39.6 24.6 48.6
3-5 Years 27.1 32.4 24.1 30.7 38.5 26.0
6-8 Years 17.9 22.3 15.4 18.3 19.9 17.3
9-10 Years 8.2 13.2 5.5 11.4 17.0 8.0

Between 1977 and 1986:

  All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5 in 1967
Years received AFDC: All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
1-2 Years 46.1 32.1 54.9 35.5 17.0 46.7
3-5 Years 26.0 29.3 24.0 23.1 31.5 18.0
6-8 Years 17.4 22.9 13.9 19.7 22.7 17.8
9-10 Years 10.5 15.7 7.3 21.7 28.8 17.4

Between 1987 and 1996:

  All Recipients Child Recipients 0-5 in 1967
Years received AFDC: All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
1-2 Years 51.0 39.2 59.7 34.6 18.8 51.1
3-5 Years 26.6 27.6 25.9 29.6 33.5 25.6
6-8 Years 13.5 18.2 10.0 20.6 25.2 15.9
9-10 Years 8.8 15.0 4.3 15.1 22.5 7.4

Note:  As in Table IND 9, the base for the percentages consists of individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC in any year in the ten-year period. Footnotes in previous reports erroneously defined the base for these percentages as individuals receiving at least $1 of AFDC in the first year of the ten-year period. The current table is based on the same methodology used to compute estimates for earlier reports. Child recipients are defined by age in the first year of the 10-year period. This measures years of recipiency over the specified ten-year time periods and does not take into account years of recipiency that may have occurred before or after the ten-year period.

Source:  Unpublished data from the PSID 1968-93 final release files and 1994-1997 unreleased preliminary data as of January, 2002.

Indicator 11. Events Associated with the Beginning and Ending of Program Spells

Table IND 11a. Percentage of First AFDC Spell Beginnings Associated with Specific Events: Selected Periods

  Spell Began
1973-1979 1980-1985 1986-1991
First birth to an unmarried, non-cohabiting mother 27.9 20.9 22.2
First birth to a married and/or cohabiting mother 13.3 17.4 11.3
Second (or higher order) birth 19.9 18.2 15.2
Divorce/separation 19.7 28.1 17.3
Mother's work hours decreased by >500 hours per year 26.3 18.8 26.2
Other adults' work hours decreased by >500 hours, but no change in family structure 34.8 27.9 21.6
Other adults' work hours decreased by >500 hours, and a change in family structure 4.7 7.9 11.4
Householder acquired work limitation 18.1 15.6 23.5
Other transfer income dropped by >$1,000 (in 1996$) 4.5 6.5 4.1
Changed state of residence 4.5 10.6 5.4

Note:  Events are defined to be neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. Work limitation is defined as a self-reported physical or nervous condition that limits the type of work or the amount of work the respondent can do.

Source:  Unpublished data from the PSID, 1974 – 1992.

  • Between 1986 and 1991, the most common events associated with the beginnings of a first AFDC spell were work-related: a decrease in mother’s work hours (26 percent), a decrease in work hours of another adult (22 percent), and acquisition of a work limitation (24 percent).
  • The percentage of first AFDC episode beginnings associated with a householder acquiring a work limitation was higher for spells that began between 1986 and 1991 (24 percent) than for spells that began between 1973 and 1979 (16 percent) or 1980 to 1985 (18 percent).
  • Between 1973 and 1979, first births to an unmarried, non-cohabiting mother were associated with 28 percent of first AFDC episodes. In contrast, such births were associated with 21 percent of first spells beginning between 1980 and 1985, and 22 percent of spells beginning between 1986 and 1991.

Table IND 11b. Percentage of First AFDC Spell Endings Associated with Specific Events: Selected Periods

  Spell Ended
1973-1979 1980-1985 1986-1991
Mother married or acquired cohabitor 16.1 17.1 21.7
Children under 18 no longer present 4.4 4.1 4.8
Mother's work hours increased by more than 500 hours per year 15.4 25.0 27.1
Other adults' work hours increased by more than 500 hours, but no change in family structure 21.8 16.8 16.7
Other adults' work hours increased by more than 500 hours, and a change in family structure 6.5 10.3 5.8
Householder no longer reports work limitation 13.0 19.2 15.8
Other transfer income increased by $1,000 or more (in 1996$) 5.0 5.5 5.8
Changed state of residence 5.9 11.0 5.9

Note:  Events are defined to be neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. Work limitation is defined as a self-reported physical or nervous condition that limits the type of work or the amount of work the respondent can do.

Source:  Unpublished data from the PSID, 1974-1992.

  • During the 1986 to 1991 time period, over one-fourth (27 percent) of first AFDC spell endings were associated with increases in mother’s work hours. The corresponding percentage was smaller for spells ending between 1973 and 1979 (15 percent).
  • In the period between 1973 and 1979, a greater percentage of spell endings was associated with an increase in work hours for other adults (22 percent) as compared to mothers (15 percent). In the more recent time period (1986 to 1991), a greater percentage of spell endings was associated with an increase in mother’s work hours (27 percent) compared to other adults (17 percent).

Chapter III: Predictors and Risk Factors Associated with Welfare Receipt

The Welfare Indicators Act challenges the Department of Health and Human Services to identify and set forth not only indicators of welfare dependence and welfare duration, but also predictors and causes of welfare receipt. Prior to the Act, welfare research had not established clear and definitive causes of welfare dependence. However, research has identified a number of risk factors associated with welfare utilization. For purposes of this report, the terms “predictors” and “risk factors” are used somewhat interchangeably.

Where the Advisory Board established under the Welfare Indicators Act recommended narrowing the focus of dependence indicators, it recommended an expansive view toward predictors and risk factors. The range of possible predictors is extremely wide, and until they are measured and analyzed over time as the PRWORA changes continue to be implemented, their value will not be fully known. Some of the “predictors” included in this chapter may turn out to be simply correlates of welfare receipt, some may have a causal relationship, some may be consequences, and some may have predictive value.

For purposes of this report, the predictors/risk factors included in this chapter are grouped into three categories: economic security risk factors, employment-related risk factors, and risk factors associated with non-marital childbearing.

Economic Security Risk Factors (ECON). The first group includes nine measures associated with economic security. This group encompasses six measures of poverty, as well as measures of child support receipt, food insecurity, and lack of health insurance. The tables and figures illustrating measures of economic security are labeled with the prefix ECON throughout this chapter.

Poverty measures are important predictors of dependence, because families with fewer economic resources are more likely to be dependent on means-tested assistance. In addition, poverty and other measures of deprivation, such as food insecurity, are important to assess in conjunction with the measures of dependence outlined in Chapter II.

Reductions in caseloads and dependence can reduce poverty, to the extent that such reductions are associated with greater work activity and higher economic resources for former welfare families. However, reductions in welfare caseloads can increase poverty and other deprivation measures, to the extent that former welfare families are left with fewer economic resources.

Several aspects of poverty are examined in this chapter. Those that can be updated annually using the Current Population Survey include: overall poverty rates (ECON 1); the percentage of individuals in deep poverty (ECON 2), and poverty rates using alternative definitions of income (ECON 3 and 4). The chapter also includes data on the length of poverty episodes or spells (ECON 5); and the cumulative time spent in poverty over a decade (ECON 6).

This chapter also includes data on child support collections (ECON 7), which can play an important role in reducing dependence on government assistance and thus serve as a predictor of dependence. Household food insecurity (ECON 8) is an important measure of deprivation that, although correlated with general income poverty, provides an alternative measure of tracking the incidence of material hardship and need, and how it may change over time. Finally, health insurance (ECON 9) is both tied to the income level of the family, and may be a precursor to future health problems among both adults and children.

Employment and Work-Related Risk Factors (WORK). The second grouping, labeled with the WORK prefix, includes nine factors related to employment and barriers to employment. These measures include data on overall labor force attachment and the employment and earnings for low-skilled workers, as well as data on barriers to work. The latter category includes incidence of adult disabilities and children with chronic health conditions, adult substance abuse, levels of educational attainment and school drop-out rates, and child care costs.

Employment and earnings provide many families with an escape from dependence. It is important, therefore, to look both at overall labor force attachment (WORK 1), and at employment and earnings levels for those with low education levels (WORK 2 and WORK 3). The economic condition of the low-skill labor market is a key predictor of the ability of young adult men and women to support families without receiving means-tested assistance.

The next two measures in this group (WORK 4 and WORK 5) focus on educational attainment. Individuals with less than a high school education have the lowest amount of human capital and are at the greatest risk of becoming poor, despite their work effort.

Measures of barriers to employment provide indicators of potential work limitations, which may be predictors of greater dependence. Substance abuse (WORK 6), disabling conditions (WORK 7), and chronic child health conditions (WORK 8) all have the potential of limiting the ability of the adults in the household to work. In addition, debilitating health conditions and high medical expenditures can place a strain on a family’s economic resources.

Non-Marital Birth Risk Factors (BIRTH). The final group of risk factors addresses out-of-wedlock childbearing. The tables and figures in this subsection are labeled with the BIRTH prefix. This category includes long-term time trends in births to unmarried women (BIRTH 1), births to unmarried teens (BIRTH 2 and BIRTH 3), and children living in families with never-married parents (BIRTH 4). Children living in families with never-married mothers are at high risk of dependence, and it is therefore important to track changes in the size of this vulnerable population.

As noted above, the predictors/risk factors included in this chapter do not represent an exhaustive list of measures. They are merely a sampling of available data that address in some way the question of how a family is faring on the scale of deprivation and well-being. Such questions are a necessary part of the dependence discussion as researchers assess the effects of the major changes that have occurred in the laws governing public assistance programs.

Economic Security Risk Factor 1. Poverty Rates

Figure ECON 1. Percentage of Persons in Poverty, by Age: 1959-2000

Figure ECON 1.  Percentage of Persons in Poverty, by Age: 1959-2000

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 2000,” Current Population Reports, Series P60-214 and data published online athttp://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html.

  • The percentage of persons living in poverty fell to 11 percent in 2000, the lowest level since 1973.
  • While the poverty rate for children has declined along with the overall rate in the past several years, children, particularly young children, continue to have higher poverty rates than the overall population. For example, in 2000, the poverty rate for related children ages 0 to 5 was about 17 percent, compared to about 11 percent for the overall population.
  • The poverty rate for blacks declined by 6 percentage points between 1996 and 2000, from 28 percent to 22 percent, as shown in Table ECON 1. The gap between black and white poverty rates was at an historic low of 13 percentage points in 2000; the gap has narrowed by a third since the early 1990s, when it exceeded 21 percentage points. The poverty rate among Hispanics reached 21 percent in 2000, the lowest level recorded.
  • The poverty rate for the elderly (persons ages 65 and over) reached historic lows of less than 10 percent in 1999 and just over 10 percent in 2000. This was a lower poverty rate than the rate for children under 18 (16 percent) and slightly above adults ages 18-64 (9.4 percent).

Table ECON 1. Percentage of Persons in Poverty, by Race/Ethnicity and Age: Selected Years

Calendar Year Related Children All Persons
Ages 0-5 Ages 6-17 Total Under 18 18 to 64 65 & over White Black Hispanic Origin
1959 N/A N/A 22.4 27.3 17.0 35.2 18.1 55.1 N/A
1963 N/A N/A 19.5 23.1 N/A N/A 15.3 N/A N/A
1966 N/A N/A 14.7 17.6 10.5 28.5 11.3 41.8 N/A
1969 15.3 13.1 12.1 14.0 8.7 25.3 9.5 32.2 N/A
1973 15.7 13.6 11.1 14.4 8.3 16.3 8.4 31.4 21.9
1976 17.7 15.1 11.8 16.0 9.0 15.0 9.1 31.1 24.7
1979 17.9 15.1 11.7 16.4 8.9 15.2 9.0 31.0 21.8
1980 20.3 16.8 13.0 18.3 10.1 15.7 10.2 32.5 25.7
1981 22.0 18.4 14.0 20.0 11.1 15.3 11.1 34.2 26.5
1982 23.3 20.4 15.0 21.9 12.0 14.6 12.0 35.6 29.9
1983 24.6 20.4 15.2 22.3 12.4 13.8 12.1 35.7 28.0
1984 23.4 19.7 14.4 21.5 11.7 12.4 11.5 33.8 28.4
1985 22.6 18.8 14.0 20.7 11.3 12.6 11.4 31.3 29.0
1986 21.6 18.8 13.6 20.5 10.8 12.4 11.0 31.1 27.3
1987 22.3 18.9 13.4 20.3 10.6 12.5 10.4 32.4 28.0
1988 21.8 17.5 13.0 19.5 10.5 12.0 10.1 31.3 26.7
1989 21.9 17.4 12.8 19.6 10.2 11.4 10.0 30.7 26.2
1990 23.0 18.2 13.5 20.6 10.7 12.2 10.7 31.9 28.1
1991 24.0 19.5 14.2 21.8 11.4 12.4 11.3 32.7 28.7
1992 25.7 19.4 14.8 22.3 11.9 12.9 11.9 33.4 29.6
1993 25.6 20.0 15.1 22.7 12.4 12.2 12.2 33.1 30.6
1994 24.5 19.5 14.5 21.8 11.9 11.7 11.7 30.6 30.7
1995 23.7 18.3 13.8 20.8 11.4 10.5 11.2 29.3 30.3
1996 22.7 18.3 13.7 20.5 11.4 10.8 11.2 28.4 29.4
1997 21.6 18.0 13.3 19.9 10.9 10.5 11.0 26.5 27.1
1998 20.6 17.1 12.7 18.9 10.5 10.5 10.5 26.1 25.6
1999 18.0 15.5 11.8 16.9 10.0 9.7 9.8 23.6 22.8
2000 16.9 15.1 11.3 16.2 9.4 10.2 9.4 22.1 21.2

Notes: Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race All persons under 18 include related children (own children, including stepchildren and adopted children, plus all other children in the household who are related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption), unrelated individuals under 18 (persons who are not living with any relatives), and householders or spouses under age 18.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 2000,” Current Population Reports, Series P60-214 and data published online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html.

Economic Security Risk Factor 2. Deep Poverty Rates

Figure ECON 2. Percentage of Total Population Below 50 and 100 Percent of Poverty: 1975-2000

Figure ECON 2. Percentage of Total Population Below 50 and 100 Percent of Poverty: 1975-2000

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 2000,” Current Population Reports, Series P60-214 and unpublished tables available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html.

  • Between 1996 and 2000, the percentage of the population in “deep poverty” (with incomes below 50 percent of the federal poverty level), decreased a full percentage point (from 5.4 percent in 1996 to 4.4 percent in 2000).
  • In general, the percentage of the population with incomes below 50 percent of the poverty threshold has followed a pattern that reflects the trend in the overall poverty rate, as shown in Figure ECON 2. The percentage of people below 50 percent of poverty rose in the late 1970s and early 1980s, then, after falling slightly, rose to a second peak in 1993. The overall poverty rate followed a somewhat similar pattern, with more pronounced peaks and valleys.
  • Over the past two decades, there has been an overall increase in the proportion of the poverty population in deep poverty and a decrease in the proportion between 50 and 100 percent of the poverty threshold. In 2000, 39 percent of poor persons had incomes that fell below 50 percent of the poverty level (4.4 percent out of 11.3 percent), whereas in 1976, only 28 percent of the poverty population was in deep poverty.

Table ECON 2. Number and Percentage of Total Population Below 50, 75, 100, and 125 Percent of Poverty: Selected Years

Year Total Population Below 50 percent Below 75 percent Below 100 percent Below 125 percent
(thousands) Number
(thousands)
Percent  Number
(thousands)
 Percent Number
(thousands)
Percent  Number
(thousands)
Percent 
1959 176,600 N/A N/A N/A N/A 39,500 22.4 54,900 31.1
1961 181,300 N/A N/A N/A N/A 39,600 21.9 54,300 30.0
1963 187,300 N/A N/A N/A N/A 36,400 19.5 50,800 27.1
1965 191,400 N/A N/A N/A N/A 33,200 17.3 46,200 24.1
1967 195,700 N/A N/A N/A N/A 27,800 14.2 39,200 20.0
1969 199,500 9,600 4.8 16,400 8.2 24,100 12.1 34,700 17.4
1971 204,600 N/A N/A N/A N/A 25,600 12.5 36,500 17.8
1973 208,500 N/A N/A N/A N/A 23,000 11.1 32,800 15.8
1975 210,900 7,700 3.7 15,400 7.3 25,900 12.3 37,100 17.6
1976 212,300 7,000 3.3 14,900 7.0 25,000 11.8 35,500 16.7
1977 213,900 7,500 3.5 15,000 7.0 24,700 11.6 35,700 16.7
1978 215,700 7,700 3.6 14,900 6.9 24,500 11.4 34,100 15.8
1979 222,900 8,600 3.8 16,300 7.3 26,100 11.7 36,600 16.4
1980 225,000 9,800 4.4 18,700 8.3 29,300 13.0 40,700 18.1
1981 227,200 11,200 4.9 20,700 9.1 31,800 14.0 43,800 19.3
1982 229,400 12,800 5.6 23,200 10.1 34,400 15.0 46,600 20.3
1983 231,700 13,600 5.9 23,600 10.2 35,300 15.2 47,000 20.3
1984 233,800 12,800 5.5 22,700 9.7 33,700 14.4 45,400 19.4
1985 236,600 12,400 5.2 22,200 9.4 33,100 13.6 44,200 18.7
1986 238,600 12,700 5.3 22,400 9.4 32,400 14.0 44,600 18.7
1987 241,000 12,500 5.2 21,700 9.0 32,200 13.4 43,100 17.9
1988 243,500 12,700 5.2 21,400 8.8 31,700 13.0 42,600 17.5
1989 246,000 12,000 4.9 20,700 8.4 31,500 12.8 42,600 17.3
1990 248,600 12,900 5.2 22,600 9.1 33,600 13.5 44,800 18.0
1991 251,200 14,100 5.6 24,400 9.7 35,700 14.2 47,500 18.9
1992 256,500 15,500 6.1 26,200 10.2 38,000 14.8 50,500 19.7
1993 259,300 16,000 6.2 27,200 10.5 39,300 15.1 51,900 20.0
1994 261,600 15,400 5.9 26,400 10.1 38,100 14.5 50,500 19.3
1995 263,700 13,900 5.3 24,500 9.3 36,400 13.8 48,800 18.5
1996 266,200 14,400 5.4 24,800 9.3 36,500 13.7 49,300 18.5
1997 268,500 14,600 5.4 24,200 9.0 35,600 13.3 47,800 17.8
1998 271,100 13,900 5.1 23,000 8.5 34,500 12.7 46,000 17.0
1999 273,500 12,700 4.6 21,600 7.9 32,300 11.8 44,300 16.2
2000 275,900 12,200 4.4 20,500 7.4 31,100 11.3 43,500 15.8

Note: The number of persons below 50 percent and 75 percent of poverty for 1969 are estimated based on the distribution of persons below 50 percent and 75 percent for 1969 taken from the 1970 decennial census.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 2000,” Current Population Reports, Series P60-214, unpublished tables available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/poverty, and 1970 Census of Population, Volume 1, Social and Economic Characteristics, Table 259.

Economic Security Risk Factor 3. Experimental Poverty Measures

Figure ECON 3. Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Various Experimental Poverty Measures, by Age: 2000

Figure ECON 3.  Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Various Experimental Poverty Measures, by Age: 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 2001.

  • Four experimental measures of poverty developed by the Census Bureau in response to the recommendation of a 1995 panel of the National Academy of Sciences yield poverty rates that are similar to the official poverty measure overall, but differ by age and other characteristics.
  • Experimental measures generally show lower poverty rates among children than the official measure, partly because they take into account non-cash benefits that many children receive. Conversely, experimental measures show higher rates of poverty among the elderly than the official measure, in part due to the inclusion of certain out-of-pocket health costs in these measures.
  • The percentage of all persons in poverty dropped steadily between 1996 and 2000 under each of the four experimental poverty measures, as well as under the official rate, as shown in Table ECON 3b.

Table ECON 3a. Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Various Experimental Poverty Measures, by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2000

  Official Poverty Measure National Academy of Sciences Different Child Care Method Different Equiv-alency Scale No Geographic Adjustment

All Persons

11.3 11.5 11.7 11.4 11.3
Racial/Ethnic Categories

White

9.4 10.0 10.2 10.0 9.9

Black

22.1 19.5 20.2 19.6 19.4

Hispanic Origin

21.2 21.8 22.3 21.4 19.9
Age Categories

Children Ages 0-17

16.2 14.3 15.1 14.0 14.2

Adults Ages 18-64

9.4 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.5

Adults Age 65 and over

10.2 14.5 14.1 14.6 14.6

Table ECON 3b. Percentage of Persons in Poverty Using Various Experimental Poverty Measures: 1990-2000

 Year Official Poverty Measure National Academy of Sciences Different Child Care Method Different Equiv-
alency Scale
No Geographic Adjustment
1990 13.5 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.8
1991 14.2 14.5 14.3 14.4 14.6
1992 14.8 15.1 15.0 15.1 15.2
1993 15.1 15.8 15.7 15.8 15.8
1994 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.6 14.6
1995 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9
1996 13.7 13.6 13.7 13.6 13.5
1997 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3
1998 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.3
1999 11.8 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.7
2000 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.4 11.3

Note: Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. The National Academy of Sciences experimental poverty measure most closely implements changes recommended by a 1995 NAS panel, including: counting non-cash income as benefits; subtracting from income certain work-related, health, and child care expenses; and adjusting poverty thresholds for family size and geographic differences in housing costs. The other three measures are similar, except for the treatment of child care expenses (Different Child Care Method), the family size adjustment (Difference Equivalency Scale), and the geographic adjustment (No Geographic Adjustment).

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 1991 to 2001; U.S. Census Bureau, “Selected Experimental Poverty Measures: 1990 to 1999”, available at www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/povmeas/exppov/ suexxpov.html. Further explanations of each of the alternative poverty measures may be found in: U.S. Census Bureau “Experimental Poverty Measure: 1990 to 1997”, Current Population Reports, Series P60-205, June 1999.

Economic Security Risk Factor 4. Poverty Rates with Various Means-tested Benefits Included

Figure ECON 4. Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: 1979-2000

Figure ECON 4. Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: 1979-2000

Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of March CPS data. Additional calculations by DHHS.

  • The official definition of poverty – which includes means-tested cash assistance (primarily TANF and SSI) in addition to pre-tax cash income and social insurance – was 11.3 percent in 2000, as shown in the bold line in Figure ECON 4. Without cash welfare, the 2000 poverty rate would be 12.0 percent, as shown by the top line in the figure above.
  • Adding other, non-cash, public assistance benefits to this definition has the effect of lowering the percentage of people who have incomes below the official poverty rate. Adding in the value of food and housing benefits reduces the poverty rate to 10.1 percent in 2000.
  • When income is defined as including benefits from the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and federal taxes, the percentage of the total population in poverty decreases to 9.5 percent in 2000. Taxes have had a net effect of reducing poverty rates since the significant increases in the size of the EITC in 1993 and 1995.
  • The combined effect of means-tested cash assistance, food and housing benefits, EITC and taxes was to reduce the poverty rate in 2000 by 2.5 percentage points, as shown in Table ECON 4. Net reductions in poverty rates were somewhat lower during the recession of the early 1980s, and somewhat higher in the mid-1990s, following expansions in the EITC.

Table ECON 4.
Percentage of Total Population in Poverty with Various Means-Tested Benefits Added to Total Cash Income: Selected Years

  1979 1983 1986 1989 1993 1995 1996 1998 2000
Cash Income Plus All Social Insurance 12.8 16.0 14.5 13.7 16.3 14.9 14.8 13.5 12.0
  • Plus Means-Tested Cash Assistance
11.6 15.2 13.6 12.8 15.1 13.8 13.7 12.7 11.3
  • Plus Food and Housing Benefits
9.7 13.7 12.2 11.2 13.4 12.0 12.1 11.3 10.1
  • Plus EITC and Federal Taxes
10.0 14.7 13.1 11.7 13.3 11.5 11.5 10.4 9.5
Reduction in Poverty Rate 2.8 1.3 1.4 2.0 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.5

Note: Whereas ECON 3 used experimental measures that adjust both poverty thresholds and income, the measures in ECON 4 illustrate the effect of analyzing different measures of income against the official poverty threshold. The four measures of income in ECON 4 are as follows: 1) “Cash Income plus All Social Insurance” is earnings and other private cash income, plus social security, workers’ compensation, and other social insurance programs. It does not include means-tested cash transfers; (2) “Plus Means-Tested Assistance” shows the official poverty rate, which takes into account means-tested assistance, primarily AFDC/TANF and SSI; (3) “Plus Food and Housing Benefits” shows how poverty would be lower if the cash value of food and housing benefits were counted as income; and (4); “Plus EITC and Federal Taxes” is the most comprehensive poverty rate shown. EITC refers to the refundable Earned Income Tax Credit, which is always a positive adjustment to income whereas Federal payroll and income taxes are a negative adjustment. The fungible value of Medicare and Medicaid is not included.

Source: Congressional Budget Office tabulations of March CPS data. Additional calculations by DHHS.

Economic Security Risk Factor 5. Poverty Spells

Figure ECON 5. Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Figure ECON 5. Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

  • Nearly half (47 percent) of all poverty spells that began during the 1993 SIPP panel ended within 4 months and three-fourths ended within one year. Only 16 percent of all such spells were longer than 20 months.
  • Spells of poverty among adults age 65 and older tend to last longer than poverty spells among younger individuals. As shown in Table ECON 5, only 65 percent of poverty spells among adults age 65 and older ended within one year compared to 80 percent for women ages 16 to 64, 75 percent for men ages 16 to 64, and 73 percent for children ages 0 to 15.
  • A larger percentage of poverty spells among non-Hispanic blacks were longer than 20 months (23 percent) than was the case for spells among non-Hispanic whites (14 percent) and among Hispanics (15 percent).
  • In general, poverty spells between and 1993 and 1995 were shorter than spells of welfare receipt begun in the same time period, as can be seen by comparing Figure ECON 5 to Figure IND 8 in Chapter II. That is, there was more movement in and out of poverty than movement on and off welfare. For example, 75 percent of poverty spells lasted a year or less, whereas only 60 percent of food stamp spells and 56 percent of AFDC spells lasted a year or less.
  •  

Table ECON 5.Percentage of Poverty Spells for Individuals Entering Poverty During the 1993 SIPP Panel, by Length of Spell, Race/Ethnicity, and Age

  Spells <=4 months Spells <=12 months Spells <=20 months Spells >20 months
All Persons 47.3 75.4 84.3 15.7
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 47.3 78.8 86.3 13.7
Non-Hispanic Black 39.9 64.1 76.7 23.3
Hispanic 42.5 74.4 84.7 15.3
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-15 43.8 73.0 82.2 17.8
Women Ages 16-64 47.6 79.9 88.9 11.1
Men Ages 16-64 51.6 75.2 84.2 15.8
Adults Age 65 and over 40.7 65.4 73.0 27.0

Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed.

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1993 panel.

Economic Security Risk Factor 6. Long-term Poverty

Figure ECON 6. Percentage of Children Ages 0 to 5 in 1987 Living in Poverty Between 1987 and 1996, by Years in Poverty and Race

Figure ECON 6. Percentage of Children Ages 0 to 5 in 1987 Living in Poverty Between 1987 and 1996, by Years in Poverty and Race

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1987-1996.

  • Among children who were ages 0 to 5 in 1987, two-thirds (66 percent) never lived in poverty for any year over the next ten years. Nearly one-quarter (23 percent) lived in poverty for one to five years and 10 percent were poor for six to ten years.
  • During the 1987-1996 period, one-third (33 percent) of black children experienced longer-term poverty of six to ten years, a percentage much higher than that for non-black children during the same ten-year period (5 percent). Similar patterns existed in the earlier two ten-year time periods, as shown in Table ECON 6.
  • For all three time periods, the percentages of all individuals who were poor for only one to two years were much larger than the percentages of all individuals who experienced longer-term poverty. For example, while 15 percent of all individuals were poor for only one to two years between 1987 and 1996, only 5 percent were poor for six to ten years during the same time period.
  • Long-term poverty of six or more years decreased for blacks more than for non-blacks across the three ten-year time periods. As shown in Table ECON 6, the percentage of persons experiencing long-term poverty decreased from 27 percent in the earliest period to 22 percent in the most recent period among blacks, but remained essentially unchanged for non-blacks. The percentage of black children experiencing long-term poverty was steady across the periods, while the percentage for non-black children increased Long-term poverty of six or more.

Table ECON 6: Percentage of Individuals Living in Poverty Across Three Ten-Year Time Periods, by Years in Poverty, Race, and Age

Between 1967 and 1976:  All Persons Children 0-5 in 1967
Cumulative Years in Poverty: All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
0 Years 75.3 37.3 80.2 70.0 26.7 76.5
1-2 Years 13.1 18.9 12.3 14.4 19.8 13.6
3-5 Years 6.2 16.6 5.0 9.1 20.5 7.4
6-8 Years 3.5 15.8 1.9 3.5 15.8 1.8
9-10 Years 1.9 11.5 0.7 2.9 17.9 0.7
Between 1977 and 1986: All Persons Children 0-5 in 1977

Cumulative Years in Poverty:

All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
0 Years 77.9 46.3 82.2 73.7 36.7 80.0
1-2 Years 11.6 15.7 11.0 11.9 16.7 11.0
3-5 Years 5.3 14.5 4.1 5.6 12.5 4.4
6-8 Years 3.4 14.0 1.9 5.1 16.5 3.2
9-10 Years 1.9 9.5 0.8 3.7 17.6 1.3
Between 1987 and 1996: All Persons Children 0-5 in 1987

Cumulative Years in Poverty:

All Black Non-Black All Black Non-Black
0 Years 74.7 44.7 79.3 66.4 30.7 75.1
1-2 Years 14.6 18.7 14.0 15.8 17.2 15.5
3-5 Years 5.5 14.3 4.1 7.6 18.8 4.8
6-8 Years 3.1 10.3 2.0 5.6 12.5 4.0
9-10 Years 2.2 12.0 0.7 4.6 20.9 0.7

Note: The base for the percentages consists of individuals in the PSID family units for all the ten-year period. Child recipients are defined by age in the first year of the 10-year period. This measures years of poverty over the specified ten-year time periods and does not take into account years of poverty that may have occurred before or after the ten-year time period.

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID 1968-93 final release files and 1994-1997 unreleased preliminary data as of January, 2002.

Economic Security Risk Factor 7. Child SUPPORT

Figure ECON 7. Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support Collections: 1978-2000

Figure ECON 7. Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support Collections: 1978-2000

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Preliminary Child Support Enforcement FY 1999 Data Report, 2000 (and earlier years), Washington, DC.

  • Collections paid through the Child Support Enforcement system (Title IV-D of the Social Security Act) totaled $17.9 billion in 2000, nearly $2 billion more than in 1999. During the 1990s, child support collections grew rapidly, at an average rate of almost $1.1 billion a year.
  • Non-TANF collections as a percentage of overall collections by the IV-D program have rapidly increased in recent years. Non-TANF collections increased by nearly $1.6 billion between 1999 and 2000, while TANF collections increased by nearly $111 million. However, this 4.5 percent increase in TANF collections between 1999 and 2000 occurred despite the 15 percent drop in the number of TANF recipient families over the same time period.
  • The amount of TANF collections paid to AFDC/TANF families has decreased since FY 1996, when the first $50 of each month’s child support collection were “passed through” to families that were receiving cash benefits. The $50 pass-through was repealed by the 1996 welfare reform law, although a number of states have opted to pass through some or all of collections to the custodial TANF family, despite the loss of revenues to the state.
  • In 2000, nearly 79 percent of TANF collections (collections on behalf of TANF recipients and for past due support assigned to the state by former TANF recipients) was retained to reimburse the state and federal governments for the cost of welfare benefits, as shown in Table ECON 7.

Table ECON 7. Total, Non-AFDC/TANF, and AFDC/TANF Title IV-D Child Support Collections: 1978-2000 Total Collections (in millions)

Fiscal Year Total Collections AFDC/TANF Collections 
Current Dollars Constant
'00 Dollars
Total  Payments to AFDC/TANF Families Federal & State Share of Collections Non-AFDC/TANF Collections Total IV-D Administrative Expenditures
1978 $1,047 $2,701 $472 $13 $459 $575 $312
1979 1,333 3,157 597 12 584 736 383
1980 1,478 3,139 603 10 593 874 466
1981 1,629 3,151 671 12 659 958 526
1982 1,771 3,198 786 15 771 985 612
1983 2,024 3,510 880 15 865 1,144 691
1984 2,378 3,951 1,000 17 983 1,378 723
1985 2,694 4,316 1,090 189 901 1,604 814
1986 3,249 5,070 1,225 275 955 2,019 941
1987 3,917 5,953 1,349 278 1,070 2,569 1,066
1988 4,605 6,735 1,486 289 1,188 3,128 1,171
1989 5,241 7,301 1,593 307 1,286 3,648 1,363
1990 6,010 7,976 1,750 334 1,416 4,260 1,606
1991 6,886 8,699 1,984 381 1,603 4,902 1,804
1992 7,964 9,765 2,259 435 1,824 5,705 1,995
1993 8,907 10,602 2,416 446 1,971 6,491 2,241
1994 9,850 11,422 2,550 457 2,093 7,300 2,556
1995 10,827 12,215 2,689 474 2,215 8,138 3,012
1996 12,020 13,194 2,855 480 2,375 9,165 3,049
1997 13,364 14,284 2,843 157 2,685 10,521 3,428
1998 14,348 15,090 2,650 152 2,498 11,698 3,585
1999 15,901 16,410 2,482 113 2,368 13,699 4,039
2000 17,854 17,854 2,593 165 2,048 15,261 4,526

Note: Not all states report current child support collections in all years. Constant dollar adjustments to the 2000 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year average price index. Data for fiscal years 1999 and 2000 may not be exactly comparable to that of previous years due to changes in data reporting forms.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Child Support Enforcement, Child Support Collections: 2001 TANF Report to Congress (and earlier years), Washington, DC. 

Economic Security Risk Factor 8. Food Insecurity

Figure ECON 8. Percentage of Households Classified by Food Security Status: 2000

Figure ECON 8. Percentage of Households Classified by Food Security Status: 2000

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Household Food Security in the United States, 2000.

  • A large majority (90 percent) of American households was food secure in 2000 – that is, showed little or no evidence of concern about food supply or reduction in food intake.
  • Approximately 10 percent of households experienced food insecurity (not being able to afford enough food) at some level during the twelve months ending in September 2000. More than two-thirds of the food insecure households were without hunger, meaning that although food insecurity was evident in their concerns and in adjustments to household food management, little or no reduction in food intake was reported.
  • The prevalence of food insecurity with hunger in 2000 was estimated to be 3 percent. One or more members of these households experienced reduced food intake and hunger as a result of financial constraints.
  • Poor households have a higher rate of food insecurity (37 percent) than the 10 percent rate among the general population, as shown in Table ECON 8a. Only 5 percent of families with incomes at or above 185 percent of the poverty level showed evidence of food insecurity.
  • Changes in survey administration make it difficult to examine time trends in food security. In general, there was a downward trend in food insecurity from 1995-1999, followed by a slight upward tick in 2000. Higher food insecurity in even years may reflect the difference between data collection in the spring (odd years) and fall (even years).

Table ECON 8a. Percentage of Households Classified by Food Security Status and Selected Characteristics: 2000

 

Food Secure

Food Insecure Total Food Insecure Without Hunger Food Insecure With Hunger
All Households 89.5 10.4 7.3 3.1
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 92.4 7.6 5.2 2.4
Non-Hispanic Black 79.5 20.5 14.1 6.5
Hispanic 78.6 21.4 16.5 4.8
Other Non-Hispanic 90.5 9.5 6.7 2.8
Households, by Age
Households with Children Under 6 83.8 16.2 12.5 3.7
Households with Children Under 18 82.4 17.6 13.9 3.7
Households with Elderly but No Children 94.1 5.9 4.4 1.5
Household Income-to-Poverty Ratio
Under 1.00 63.2 36.8 24.0 12.7
Under 1.30 67.0 33.0 22.1 10.9
Under 1.85 72.7 27.3 18.7 8.6
1.85 and over 95.4 4.6 3.4 1.2

Table ECON 8b.Percentage of Households Classified by Food Security Status: 1995-2000

 

Food Secure

Food Insecure 
Total
Food Insecure 
Without Hunger
Food Insecure
With Hunger

Old Series

1995 89.7 10.3 6.4 3.9
1996 89.6 10.4 6.3 4.1
1997 91.3 8.7 5.6 3.1
1998 89.8 10.2 6.6 3.6
1999 91.3 8.7 5.9 2.8

New Series

1998 88.2 11.8 8.1 3.7
1999 89.9 10.1 7.1 3.0
2000 89.5 10.5 7.3 3.1

Note: Food secure households show little or no evidence of concern about food supply or reduction in food intake. Households classified as food insecure without hunger report food-related concerns, adjustments to household food management, and reduced variety and desirability of diet but report little or no reduction in food intake. Households classified as food insecure with hunger report reduced food intake and hunger. Because of changes in survey administration, food insecurity statistics in Table ECON 8b are shown in two separate series. The “new series” (1998-2000) provides the best estimates of food security for 1998 and 1999; in the “old series” (1995-1999), data for 1998 and 1999 were adjusted to be comparable to 1995-1997.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Household Food Security in the United States, 2000.

Economic Security Risk Factor 9. Lack of Health Insurance

Figure ECON 9. Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance, by Income: 2000

Figure ECON 9. Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance, by Income: 2000

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey, March 2001.

Table ECON 9. Percentage of Persons without Health Insurance, by Income and Selected Characteristics: 2000

  All Persons Poor Persons
All Persons 14.0 29.5
Male 14.9 32.3
Female 13.1 27.5
Ethnic Origin
White 12.9 31.0
Black 18.5 24.5
Hispanic 32.0 43.0
Education
No H.S. Diploma 26.6 36.5
H.S. Graduate, no college 16.4 33.4
College Graduate 7.1 31.2
Age
Age 18 and under 11.6 21.5
Ages 18-24 27.3 46.6
Ages 25-34 21.2 46.3
Ages 35-44 15.5 42.1
Ages 45-64 12.6 31.0
Age 65 and over 0.7 2.4

Note: "Poor persons" are defined as those with total family incomes at or below the poverty rate. Persons of Hispanic ethnicity may be of any race.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Health Insurance Coverage: 2000,” Current Population Reports, Series P60-215, 2001.

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 1. Labor Force Attachment

Figure WORK 1. Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Race/Ethnicity: 2000

Figure WORK 1. Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Race/Ethnicity: 2000

Source: Unpublished tabulations of March CPS data.

  • In 2000, 73 percent of the total population lived in families with at least one person working on a full-time, full-year basis, as shown in Table WORK 1a. Full-time full-year work was higher in 2000 than during the 1990s, as shown in Table WORK 1b.
  • Overall, 13 percent of the population lived in families with no labor force participants and 14 percent lived in families with part-time and/or part-year labor force participants in 2000.
  • Persons of Hispanic origin were less likely than non-Hispanic whites or non-Hispanic blacks to live in families with no one in the labor force in 1999 (9 percent compared to 14 and 15 percent, respectively).
  • Working-age women were more likely than working-age men to live in families with no one in the labor force (8 percent compared to 6 percent). Men were more likely than women to live in families with at least one full-time, full-year worker (82 percent compared to 78 percent).

Table WORK 1a. Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants, by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2000

  No one in LF During Year At least one in LF 
No one FT/FY
At least one FT/FY worker
All Persons 13.1 13.9 73.0
Racial/Ethnic Categories
Non-Hispanic White 13.8 13.1 73.1
Non-Hispanic Black 15.2 15.9 68.9
Hispanic 8.8 16.0 75.2

Age Categories

Children Ages 0-5 4.8 14.8 80.4
Children Ages 6-10 4.9 13.7 81.4
Children Ages 11-15 4.6 12.3 83.0
Women Ages 16-64 7.6 14.6 77.9
Men Ages 16-64 5.7 12.6 81.7
Adults Age 65 and over 64.5 15.5 20.0

Table WORK 1b. Percentage of Individuals in Families with Labor Force Participants: 1990-2000

  No one in LF During Year At least one in LF
No one FT/FY
At least one FT/FY 
LF participant
1990 13.7 18.1 68.3
1991 14.3 18.7 67.0
1992 14.3 18.6 67.1
1993 14.2 18.6 67.3
1994 14.0 17.7 68.3
1995 13.8 17.0 69.2
1996 13.6 16.7 69.7
1997 13.5 16.3 70.2
1998 13.3 15.3 71.4
1999 13.1 14.6 72.3
2000 13.1 13.9 73.0

Note: Full-time, full-year workers are defined as those who usually worked for 35 or more hours per week, for at least 50 weeks in a given year. Part-time and part-year labor force participation includes part-time workers and individuals who are unemployed, laid off, and/or looking for work for part or all of the year. This indicator represents annual measures of labor force participation, and thus cannot be compared to monthly measures of labor force participation in Indicator 2.

Source: Unpublished tabulations of March CPS data.

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 2. Employment Among the Low-skilled

Figure WORK 2. Percentage of All Persons Ages 18 to 65 with No More than a High School Education Who Were Employed: 1969-2001

Figure WORK 2. Percentage of All Persons Ages 18 to 65 with No More than a High School Education Who Were Employed: 1969-2001

Source: ASPE tabulations of March CPS data.

  • Between 1996 and 2001, employment rates of black and Hispanic women with a high school education or less rose significantly, to 67 percent and 61 percent, respectively. Low-skilled white women experienced less of an increase in employment over this time period but still had the highest employment level in 2001 (69 percent) among the three racial/ethnic groups.
  • Employment levels for white and Hispanic men with no more than a high school education have hovered close to 85 percent for close to two decades. In contrast, employment levels for low-skilled black men have varied over the same period. Between 1969 and 1984, employment rates for black men with no more than high school education fell by 20 percentage points. Since 1984, these rates have fluctuated, with the most recent five years showing a slight increase from 70 to 73 percent.
  • As shown in Figure and Table WORK 2, employment levels for black men with a high school education or less were 6 percentage points higher than those of similarly educated black women in 2001. In contrast, there was a 16-percentage point difference in employment levels of white men and white women with a high school education or less, and a 26-percentage point difference between similarly educated Hispanic men and Hispanic women.

Table WORK 2. Percentage of All Persons Ages 18 to 65 with No More than a High School Education Who Were Employed: 1969-2001

  Men   Women
White Black Hispanic White Black Hispanic
1969 92.8 89.9 N/A 55.8 65.8 N/A
1970 92.1 89.2 N/A 56.1 64.9 N/A
1972 90.9 86.1 N/A 55.2 59.4 N/A
1973 91.1 84.3 N/A 55.6 58.1 N/A
1976 88.2 78.8 86.2 58.3 57.2 49.7
1978 88.3 78.6 89.8 59.8 57.4 51.4
1980 88.6 78.5 89.4 62.3 58.7 55.0
1981 88.0 75.3 87.4 62.3 57.4 53.0
1982 87.3 74.4 87.9 62.3 57.7 52.1
1983 85.4 71.3 85.4 60.7 56.2 50.6
1984 84.8 69.9 84.6 61.4 55.3 50.8
1985 86.1 71.6 83.9 62.9 58.4 53.1
1986 85.7 74.5 84.1 63.7 59.4 52.4
1987 86.3 74.2 86.7 64.4 60.3 53.0
1988 86.6 73.9 85.6 65.8 59.9 54.0
1989 86.5 74.1 87.8 66.4 61.3 54.6
1990 86.6 74.0 86.2 67.2 60.9 55.8
1991 87.4 75.6 85.4 66.8 60.4 55.0
1992 86.2 73.9 85.0 66.5 60.7 54.6
1993 85.5 71.4 83.7 65.9 57.8 53.3
1994 84.4 71.1 83.5 66.1 59.9 52.2
1995 84.7 69.3 83.2 66.6 60.7 53.3
1996 85.5 70.2 83.3 67.0 59.7 53.9
1997 85.6 70.0 84.0 67.7 63.6 55.4
1998 85.3 71.8 85.0 67.7 66.1 56.9
1999 85.4 71.9 85.5 67.9 66.8 57.1
2000 85.0 72.2 86.4 68.9 68.3 58.8
2001 85.1 72.9 86.5 68.6 67.4 61.0

Note: All data reflect employment rates for March of the given year. White and Black includes those of Hispanic origin for all years. Hispanic was not available until 1975.

Source: ASPE tabulations of March CPS data.

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 3. Earnings of Low-skilled Workers

Figure WORK 3. Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full-Time, Full-Year with No More than a High School Education, by Race (2000 Dollars): Selected Years

Figure WORK 3. Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full-Time, Full-Year with No More than a High School Education, by Race (2000 Dollars): Selected Years

Source: ASPE tabulations of March CPS data.

  • Mean weekly wages for full-time work by men with no more than a high school diploma have decreased in real terms for much of the past quarter century, with some recovery in the late 1990s. In 1970, the mean weekly wage for low-skilled men working full-time was $683 (in 2000 dollars); the comparable wage in 1995 was $617, a decrease of 10 percent.
  • In recent years, this pattern has changed; weekly wages for low-skilled men have risen, even after taking inflation into account. The mean weekly wage for low-skilled full-time workers was $650 in 2000 – a rise above the 1995 level, but still not as high as wages for this group in 1970 (in 2000 dollars).
  • The gap between mean weekly wages for white and black men with low education levels has narrowed significantly over time, but expanded slightly in 2000. In 1970, the mean weekly wage for low-skilled black men working full-time was $497 (in 2000 dollars), or 70 percent of the $706 average for white men. However, full-time working black men with no more than a high school education received 88 percent of the mean weekly wages of white men in 1999 ($573 compared to $654). In 2000, the wages of low-skilled black men were 85 percent of those of white men with a similar level of education ($565 compared to $667). The gap between mean weekly wages for white and black men with low education levels has narrowed significantly.

Table WORK 3: Mean Weekly Wages of Men Working Full-Time, Full-Year with No More than a High-School Education, by Race (2000 Dollars): Selected Years

  1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
All Men $683 $694 $693 $669 $625 $617 $629 $640 $628 $639 $650
White Men $706 $712 $712 $690 $643 $635 $646 $657 $644 $654 $667
Black Men $497 $547 $539 $524 $516 $509 $529 $530 $536 $573 $565

Note: Full-time, full-year workers work at least 48 weeks per year and 35 hours per week. White and black include those of Hispanic origin for all years.

Source: ASPE tabulations of March CPS data.

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 4. Educational Attainment

Figure WORK 4. Percentage of Adults Age 25 and Over, by Level of Educational Attainment: 1960-2001

Figure WORK 4.  Percentage of Adults Age 25 and Over, by Level of Educational Attainment: 1960-2001

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Educational Attainment in the United States: March 2001,” Current Population Reports, Series PPL-157, February 2002, and earlier reports.

  • There has been a marked decline over the past forty years in the percentage of the population who has not earned a high school diploma. This percentage fell from 59 percent in 1960 to a little under 16 percent in 2001.
  • The percentage of the population receiving a high school education only (with no subsequent college) was 25 percent in 1960 and rose to 39 percent in 1988. Since then this figure has fallen to 33 percent, although some of this decline is a result of a change in the survey methodology in 1992 (see note to Table WORK 4).
  • Between 1960 and 1990, the percentage of the population with some college (one to three years) doubled, from 9 percent to 18 percent. The apparent jump in 1992 is a result of a change in the survey methodology (see note to Table WORK 4), but the trend continued upward, reaching nearly 26 percent in 2001.
  • The percentage of the population completing four or more years of college more than tripled from 1960 to 2001, rising steadily from 8 percent to a little over 26 percent.

Table WORK 4. Percentage of Adults Age 25 and Over, by Level of Educational Attainment: Selected Years

  Not a High School Graduate Finished High School, No College One to Three Years of College Four or More Years of College
1940 76 14 5 5
1950 67 20 7 6
1960 59 25 9 8
1965 51 31 9 9
1970 45 34 10 11
1975 37 36 12 14
1980 31 37 15 17
1981 30 38 15 17
1982 29 38 15 18
1983 28 38 16 19
1984 27 38 16 19
1985 26 38 16 19
1986 25 38 17 19
1987 24 39 17 20
1988 24 39 17 20
1989 23 38 17 21
1990 22 38 18 21
1991 22 39 18 21
1992 21 36 22 21
1993 20 35 23 22
1994 19 34 24 22
1995 18 34 25 23
1996 18 34 25 24
1997 18 34 24 24
1998 17 34 25 24
1999 17 33 25 25
2000 16 33 25 26
2001 16 33 26 26

Note: Completing the GED is not considered completing high school within this table. Beginning with data for 1992, a new survey question results in different categories than for prior years. Data shown as Finished High School, No College was previously from the category “High School, 4 years” and is now from the category “High School Graduate.” Data shown as One to Three Years of College was previously from the category “College 1 to 3 years” and is now the sum of the categories: “Some College” and two separate “Associate Degree” categories. Data shown as Four or more Years of College was previously from the category “College 4 years or more,” and is now the sum of the categories: “Bachelor's Degree,” “Master's Degree,” “Doctorate Degree,” and “Professional Degree.”

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Educational Attainment in the United States: March 2001,” Current Population Reports, Series PPL-157, February 2002, and earlier reports.

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 5. High-school Dropout Rates

Figure WORK 5. Percentage of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the Previous Year Who Were Not Enrolled and Had Not Graduated in the Survey Year, by Race/Ethnicity: Selected Years

Figure WORK 5.  Percentage of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the Previous Year Who Were Not Enrolled and Had Not Graduated in the Survey Year, by Race/Ethnicity: Selected Years

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States: 2000 and earlier years (based on Current Population Survey data from the October supplement).

  • With the exception of a small upward movement in 1988, the dropout rates for teens in grades 10 to 12 declined steadily from 1979 to 1991. From a low of 4 percent, the rate began rising to a peak of 5.7 percent in 1995. Following this upturn, the overall rate again declined to 4.6 percent in 1997; since then it has fluctuated, moving up to 5.0 percent in 1999 and then back down again to 4.8 percent in 2000.
  • Dropout rates among Hispanic and black teens have fluctuated considerably over time. Still, dropout rates are generally highest for Hispanic teens and lowest for white teens. In 2000, the dropout rate was 7.4 percent for Hispanic teens, compared to 6.1 percent for black teens and 4.1 percent for white teens.

Table WORK 5. Percentage of Students Enrolled in Grades 10 to 12 in the Previous Year Who Were Not Enrolled and Had Not Graduated in the Survey Year, by Race/Ethnicity: Selected Years

  Total Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic Origin
1972 6.1 5.3 9.5 11.2
1973 6.3 5.5 9.9 10.0
1974 6.7 5.8 11.6 9.9
1975 5.8 5.0 8.7 10.9
1976 5.9 5.6 7.4 7.3
1977 6.5 6.1 8.6 7.8
1978 6.7 5.8 10.2 12.3
1979 6.7 6.0 9.9 9.8
1980 6.1 5.2 8.2 11.7
1981 5.9 4.8 9.7 10.7
1982 5.5 4.7 7.8 9.2
1983 5.2 4.4 7.0 10.1
1984 5.1 4.4 5.7 11.1
1985 5.2 4.3 7.8 9.8
1986 4.7 3.7 5.4 11.9
1987 4.1 3.5 6.4 5.4
1988 4.8 4.2 5.9 10.4
1989 4.5 3.5 7.8 7.8
1990 4.0 3.3 5.0 7.9
1991 4.0 3.2 6.0 7.3
1992 4.4 3.7 5.0 8.2
1993 4.5 3.9 5.8 6.7
1994 5.3 4.2 6.6 10.0
1995 5.7 4.5 6.4 12.3
1996 5.0 4.1 6.7 9.0
1997 4.6 3.6 5.0 9.5
1998 4.8 3.9 5.2 9.4
1999 5.0 4.0 6.5 7.8
2000 4.8 4.1 6.1 7.4

Note: Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Due to small sample size, American Indians/Alaska Natives and Asian/Pacific Islanders are included in the total but are not shown separately. Beginning in 1987, the Bureau of the Census instituted new editing procedures for cases with missing data on school enrollment. Beginning in 1992, the data reflect new wording of the educational attainment item in the CPS.

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Dropout Rates in the United States: 2000 and earlier years (based on Current Population Survey data from the October supplement).

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 6. Adult Alcohol and Substance Abuse

Figure WORK 6. Percentage of Adults Who Used Cocaine or Marijuana or Abused Alcohol, by Age: 2000

Figure WORK 6. Percentage of Adults Who Used Cocaine or Marijuana or Abused Alcohol, by Age: 2000

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

  • In 2000, young adults (ages 18 to 25) were more likely than older adults to report alcohol abuse, marijuana use, or cocaine use in the past month. About one in seven (14 percent) of adults 18 to 25 reported using marijuana in the past month during 2000, compared with 6 percent of adults 26 to 34 and 2 percent of adults 35 and older. Young adults were also significantly more likely to abuse alcohol than older adults.
  • The percentages of persons reporting binge alcohol use in 1999 and 2000 were significantly larger than the percentages for all other reported behaviors across all age groups, as shown in Table WORK 6.

Table WORK 6. Percentage of Adults Who Used Cocaine or Marijuana or Abused Alcohol, by Age: 1999 & 2000

  1999 2000
Cocaine
Ages 18-25 1.7 1.4
Ages 26-34 1.2 0.8
Age 35 and Over 0.4 0.3
Marijuana
Ages 18-25 14.2 13.6
Ages 26-34 5.4 5.9
Age 35 and Over 2.2 2.3
Binge Alcohol Use
Ages 18-25 37.9 37.8
Ages 26-34 29.3 30.3
Age 35 and Over 16.0 16.4
Heavy Alcohol Use
Ages 18-25 13.3 12.8
Ages 26-34 7.5 7.6
Age 35 and Over 4.2 4.1

Note: Cocaine and marijuana use is defined as use during the past month. “Binge" Alcohol Use is defined as drinking five or more drinks on the same occasion on at least one day in the past 30 days. "Occasion" means at the same time or within a couple hours of each other. Heavy Alcohol Use is defined as drinking five or more drinks on the same occasion on each of five or more days in the past 30 days; all Heavy Alcohol Users are also "Binge" Alcohol Users. Due to a change in NHSDA methodology in 1999, the 1999 and 2000 estimates cannot be compared to estimates from 1998 and earlier years for trend purposes.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 7. ADULT/CHILD Disability

Figure WORK 7.Percentage of the Total Population Reporting a Disability, by Age: 2000

Figure WORK 7. Percentage of the Total Population Reporting a Disability, by Age: 2000

Source: Provisional data from the 2000 National Health Interview Survey.

  • In 2000, 12 percent of all Americans had an activity-limiting disability. In addition, activity-limiting disabilities were reported by 6 percent of children, 10 percent of adults under the age of 65, and 36 percent of elderly adults in 2000.
  • Among the non-elderly population, rates of activity limitation were very similar for non-Hispanic whites and non-Hispanic blacks in 2000 (9 percent and 10 percent, respectively), but lower for Hispanics (6 percent), as shown in Table WORK 7.
  • While adults were more likely than children to report an activity limitation, a higher percentage of children than adults were actually recipients of disability program benefits in 2000 (5.5 percent compared to 3.8 percent), as shown in Table WORK 7.
  • Elderly adults were far more likely than adults under the age of 65 to have activity limitations, work disabilities, or long-term care needs in 2000.

Table WORK 7. Percentage of the Total Population Reporting a Disability, by Race/Ethnicity and Age: 2000

  Activity Limitation Work Disability Long-Term Care Needs Disability Program Recipient
All Persons, All Ages 11.9      
All Persons under 65 Years 8.7      
Racial/Ethnic Categories (Persons under 65 Years)
Non-Hispanic White 9.1      
Non-Hispanic Black 9.7      
Hispanic 5.9      
Age Categories
Children Ages 0-17 6.4 N/A N/A 5.5
Adults Ages 18-64 9.6 7.8 1.8 3.8
Adults Age 65 and over 35.5 30.4 13.8 N/A

Note: Alternative measures of disability (work disability, long-term care needs, and disability program recipient) are not available by race/ethnicity or across the entire population because different alternative measures are not applicable to certain age groups. Respondents were defined as having an activity limitation if they answered positively to any of the questions regarding: (1) work disability (see definition below); (2) long-term care needs (see definition below); (3) difficulty walking; (4) difficulty remembering; (5) for children under 5, limitations in the amount of play activities they can participate in because of physical, mental, or emotional problems; (6) for children 3 and over, receipt of Special Educational or Early Intervention Services; and, (7) any other limitations due to physical, mental, or emotional problems. Work disability is defined as limitations in or the inability to work as a result of a physical, mental or emotional health condition. Individuals are identified as having long-term care needs if they need the help of others in handling either personal care needs (eating, bathing, dressing, getting around the home) or routine needs (household chores, shopping, getting around for business or other purposes). Disability program recipients include persons covered by Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), Special Education Services, Early Intervention Services, and/or disability pensions.

Source: Provisional data from the 2000 National Health Interview Survey.

Employment and Work-related Risk Factor 8. Children's Health Conditions

Figure WORK 8. Selected Chronic Health Conditions per 1,000 Children Ages 0 to 17: Selected Years

Figure WORK 8. Selected Chronic Health Conditions per 1,000 Children Ages 0 to 17: Selected Years

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, Trends in the Well-Being of America’s Children and Youth: 1998. Table HC 2.5.

  • Respiratory conditions, especially chronic sinusitis and asthma, were the most prevalent chronic health conditions experienced in recent years by children.
  • Rates for asthma show some year-to-year variation, but were higher in the mid-1990s (62 to 75 children per thousand) than in the mid-1980s (43 to 53 children per thousand). Like rates for asthma, the prevalence of chronic sinusitis has both increased and showed considerable year-to-year variation.
  • In 1996, 26 children per thousand had a deformity or orthopedic impairment, down from a high of 36 children per thousand in 1987, as shown in Table WORK 8.
  • The rate for heart disease among children has ranged from a low of 18 cases per thousand in 1994 to a high of 24 cases per thousand in 1996, with no clear trend.

Table WORK 8. Selected Chronic Health Conditions per 1,000 Children Ages 0 to 17: Selected Years

  1984 1987 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Respiratory Conditions
Chronic Bronchitis 50 62 53 54 59 55 54 57
Chronic Sinusitis 47 58 57 69 80 65 76 64
Asthma 43 53 58 63 72 69 75 62
Chronic Diseases of Tonsils or Adenoids 34 30 23 28 26 23 19 20
Impairments
Deformity or Orthopedic Impairment 35 36 29 33 29 28 30 26
Speech Impairment 16 19 14 21 20 21 18 16
Hearing Impairment 24 16 21 15 17 18 15 13
Visual Impairment 9 10 9 10 7 9 7 6
Other Conditions
Heart Disease 23 22 19 19 20 18 19 24
Anemia 11 8 10 11 9 12 7 5
Epilepsy 7 4 4 3 5 5 4 5

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, Trends in the Well-Being of America’s Children and Youth: 1998. Table HC 2.5. 

Non-marital Birth Risk Factor 1. Births to Unmarried Women

Figure BIRTH 1. Births to Unmarried Women as a Percentage of All Births, by Age Group: 1940-2000

Figure BIRTH 1. Births to Unmarried Women as a Percentage of All Births, by Age Group: 1940-2000

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, “Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999,” National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; “Births: Final Data for 2000,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 50 (5), February 2002.

  • The percentage of children born outside of marriage to women of all ages has increased over the past half-century, from 4 percent in 1940 to 33 percent in 2000. This increase reflects changes in several factors: the rate at which unmarried women have children, the rate at which married women have children, and the rate at which women marry.
  • The percentage of children born outside of marriage is especially high among teen women. Close to four-fifths (79 percent) of all births to teens took place outside of marriage in 2000.
  • After fifty years of growth, the percentage of unmarried births to all women has almost leveled off since 1994. Growth in the percentage of unmarried births to teen mothers has also slowed since 1994, but it is still rising (from 76 percent in 1994 to 79 percent in 2000).
  • Recently, the percentage of out-of-wedlock births has leveled off among black teens and all black women. Among white teens and all white women, the trend continues upward (see Table C-1 in Appendix C for non-marital birth data by age and race).

Table BIRTH 1. Births to Unmarried Women as a Percentage of All Births, by Age Group: 1940-2000

  Under 15 15-17 Years 18-19 Years All Teens All Women
1940 64.5 N/A N/A 14.0 3.8
1941 64.1 N/A N/A 14.2 3.8
1942 64.5 N/A N/A 13.2 3.4
1943 64.2 N/A N/A 13.4 3.3
1944 64.5 N/A N/A 15.7 3.8
1945 70.0 N/A N/A 18.2 4.3
1946 66.4 N/A N/A 15.7 3.8
1947 65.1 N/A N/A 13.0 3.6
1948 61.4 20.8 8.5 12.7 3.7
1949 61.8 21.1 8.6 12.9 3.7
1950 63.7 22.6 9.4 13.9 4.0
1951 62.9 21.8 9.1 13.5 3.9
1952 63.6 22.8 9.2 14.0 3.9
1953 64.0 22.3 9.6 14.1 4.1
1954 64.4 23.2 10.1 14.7 4.4
1955 66.3 23.2 10.3 14.9 4.5
1956 66.1 23.0 10.0 14.6 4.6
1957 66.1 23.1 9.8 14.5 4.7
1958 66.2 23.3 10.3 14.9 5.0
1959 67.9 24.2 10.6 15.4 5.2
1960 67.8 24.0 10.7 15.4 5.3
1961 69.7 25.3 11.3 16.2 5.6
1962 69.5 26.7 11.3 16.4 5.9
1963 71.1 28.2 12.5 18.0 6.3
1964 74.2 29.9 13.5 19.7 6.8
1965 78.5 32.8 15.3 21.6 7.7
1966 76.3 35.3 16.1 22.6 8.4
1967 80.3 37.7 18.0 25.0 9.0
1968 81.0 40.4 20.1 27.6 9.7
1969 79.3 41.3 21.1 28.7 10.0
1970 80.8 43.0 22.4 30.5 10.7
1971 82.1 44.5 23.2 31.8 11.3
1972 81.9 45.9 24.7 33.8 12.4
1973 84.8 46.7 25.6 35.0 13.0
1974 84.6 48.3 27.0 36.4 13.2
1975 87.0 51.4 29.8 39.3 14.2
1976 86.4 54.0 31.6 41.2 14.8
1977 88.2 56.6 34.4 43.8 15.5
1978 87.3 57.5 36.2 44.9 16.3
1979 88.8 60.0 38.1 46.9 17.1
1980 88.7 61.5 39.8 48.3 18.4
1981 89.2 63.3 41.4 49.9 18.9
1982 89.2 65.0 43.0 51.4 19.4
1983 90.4 67.5 45.7 54.1 20.3
1984 91.1 69.2 48.1 56.3 21.0
1985 91.8 70.9 50.7 58.7 22.0
1986 92.5 73.3 53.6 61.5 23.4
1987 92.9 75.8 56.0 64.0 24.5
1988 93.6 77.1 58.5 65.9 25.7
1989 92.4 77.7 60.4 67.2 27.1
1990 91.6 77.7 61.3 67.6 28.0
1991 91.3 78.7 63.2 69.3 29.5
1992 91.3 79.2 64.6 70.5 30.1
1993 91.3 79.9 66.1 71.8 31.0
1994 94.5 84.1 70.0 75.9 32.6
1995 93.5 83.7 69.8 75.6 32.2
1996 93.8 84.4 70.8 76.3 32.4
1997 95.7 86.7 72.5 78.2 32.4
1998 96.6 87.5 73.6 78.9 32.8
1999 96.5 87.7 74.0 79.0 33.0
2000 96.5 87.7 74.3 79.1 33.2

Note: Trends in non-marital births may be affected by changes in the reporting of marital status on birth certificates and in procedures for inferring non-marital births when marital status is not reported.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, “Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999,” National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; “Births: Final Data for 2000,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 50 (5), February 2002.

Non-marital Birth Risk Factor 2. Births to Unmarried Teens

Figure BIRTH 2. Percentage of All Births to Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 19, by Race: 1940-2000

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, “Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999,” National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; “Births: Final Data for 2000,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 50 (5), February 2002.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, “Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999,” National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; “Births: Final Data for 2000,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 50 (5), February 2002.

  • In contrast to Figure BIRTH 1, which showed births to unmarried teens as a percentage of all teen births, Figure BIRTH 2 shows births to unmarried teens as a percentage of births to all women. This percentage rose from just under 2 percent in 1940 to just under 10 percent in 1994 and saw a modest decline in 1999 and 2000. It may be affected by several factors: the age distribution of women, the marriage rate among teens, the birth rate among unmarried teens, and the birth rate among all other women.
  • Between 1960 and 2000, the percentage of all births that were to unmarried teens trended upward among white women, from less than 1 percent in 1960 to nearly 8 percent in 2000.
  • Among black women, the percentage of all births that were to unmarried teens varied greatly during the same period, rising sharply to a peak of 24 percent in 1975, and showing a gradual decline in most years since then. The rate fell to just under 19 percent in 2000, the lowest percentage since 1970. The sharp increase in the late 1960s and early 1970s reflects a large increase in non-marital births to black teenagers at a time when overall births to black women were declining.

Table BIRTH 2. Births to Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 19 as a Percentage of All Births, by Race: 1940-2000

  All Races White Black
1940 1.7 0.8 N/A
1941 1.7 0.7 N/A
1942 1.5 0.7 N/A
1943 1.5 0.6 N/A
1944 1.6 0.8 N/A
1945 1.8 0.8 N/A
1946 1.5 0.7 N/A
1947 1.4 0.7 N/A
1948 1.5 0.7 N/A
1949 1.5 0.6 N/A
1950 1.6 0.6 N/A
1951 1.5 0.6 N/A
1952 1.5 0.6 N/A
1953 1.6 0.6 N/A
1954 1.7 0.7 N/A
1955 1.7 0.7 N/A
1956 1.7 0.7 N/A
1957 1.8 0.7 N/A
1958 1.9 0.8 N/A
1959 2.0 0.9 N/A
1960 2.0 0.9 N/A
1961 2.2 1.0 N/A
1962 2.3 1.1 N/A
1963 2.5 1.2 N/A
1964 2.8 1.3 N/A
1965 3.3 1.6 N/A
1966 3.8 1.9 N/A
1967 4.1 2.1 N/A
1968 4.5 2.3 N/A
1969 4.7 2.4 17.5
1970 5.1 2.6 18.8
1971 5.5 2.6 20.3
1972 6.2 3.0 22.6
1973 6.5 3.2 23.4
1974 6.7 3.3 23.9
1975 7.1 3.7 24.2
1976 7.1 3.8 23.8
1977 7.2 4.0 23.4
1978 7.2 4.0 22.7
1979 7.2 4.1 22.5
1980 7.3 4.4 22.2
1981 7.1 4.5 21.5
1982 7.1 4.5 21.2
1983 7.2 4.6 21.2
1984 7.1 4.6 20.7
1985 7.2 4.8 20.3
1986 7.5 5.1 20.1
1987 7.7 5.3 20.0
1988 8.0 5.6 20.3
1989 8.3 5.9 20.6
1990 8.4 6.1 20.4
1991 8.7 6.4 20.4
1992 8.7 6.5 20.2
1993 8.9 6.8 20.2
1994 9.7 7.5 21.1
1995 9.6 7.6 21.1
1996 9.6 7.7 20.9
1997 9.7 7.8 20.5
1998 9.7 7.9 19.9
1999 9.5 7.8 19.1
2000 9.3 7.7 18.9

Note: Trends in non-marital births may be affected by changes in the reporting of marital status on birth certificates and in procedures for inferring non-marital births when marital status is not reported. Beginning in 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the mother. Prior to 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the child. White and black include those of Hispanic origin for all years. Rates for 1981-1989 have been revised and differ, therefore, from rates published in Vital Statistics in the United States, Vol. 1, Natality, for 1991 and earlier years.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, “Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999,” National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; “Births: Final Data for 2000,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 50 (5), February 2002.

Non-marital Birth Risk Factor 3. Unmarried Teen Birth Rates Within Age Groups

Figure BIRTH 3a. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 17, by Race: 1960-2000

Figure BIRTH 3a. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 15 to 17, by Race: 1960-2000

Figure BIRTH 3b. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 18 and 19, by Race: 1960-2000

Figure BIRTH 3b. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teens Ages 18 and 19, by Race: 1960-2000

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, “Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999,” National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; “Births: Final Data for 2000,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 50 (5), February 2002.

  • The birth rate per 1,000 unmarried teens fell between 1994 and 2000 for both black and white teens and for both younger (15 to 17 years) and older age groups (18 and 19 years). The rate for black teens 18 and 19, for example, fell from 142 per 1,000 to 117 per 1,000. Declines were larger among black teens than among white teens.
  • Prior to 1994, birth rates among unmarried white teens in both age groups rose steadily for nearly three decades (4 to 24 percent among 15 to 17 year-olds and 11 to 57 percent among 18 and 19 year-olds).
  • Among unmarried black teens in both age groups, birth rates varied greatly over the period, reaching peaks in both the early 1970s and early 1990s. Rates for both age groups were lower in 2000 than in 1969 (31 percent lower for 15 to 17 year-olds and 11 percent lower for 18 to 19 year-olds). While birth rates among unmarried black teens remain high compared to rates for unmarried white teens, the gap been black and white teens narrowed considerably during the 1990s.

Table BIRTH 3. Births per 1,000 Unmarried Teen Women Within Age Groups, by Race: 1960-2000

  Ages 15-17 Ages 18 and 19
All Races White Black All Races White Black
1960 11.1 4.4 N/A 24.3 11.4 N/A
1961 11.7 4.6 N/A 24.6 12.1 N/A
1962 10.7 4.1 N/A 23.8 11.7 N/A
1963 10.9 4.5 N/A 25.8 13.0 N/A
1964 11.6 4.9 N/A 26.5 13.6 N/A
1965 12.5 5.0 N/A 25.8 13.9 N/A
1966 13.1 5.4 N/A 25.6 14.1 N/A
1967 13.8 5.6 N/A 27.6 15.3 N/A
1968 14.7 6.2 N/A 29.6 16.6 N/A
1969 15.2 6.6 72.0 30.8 16.6 128.4
1970 17.1 7.5 77.9 32.9 17.6 136.4
1971 17.5 7.4 80.7 31.7 15.8 135.2
1972 18.5 8.0 82.8 30.9 15.1 128.2
1973 18.7 8.4 81.2 30.4 14.9 120.5
1974 18.8 8.8 78.6 31.2 15.3 122.2
1975 19.3 9.6 76.8 32.5 16.5 123.8
1976 19.0 9.7 73.5 32.1 16.9 117.9
1977 19.8 10.5 73.0 34.6 18.7 121.7
1978 19.1 10.3 68.8 35.1 19.3 119.6
1979 19.9 10.8 71.0 37.2 21.0 123.3
1980 20.6 12.0 68.8 39.0 24.1 118.2
1981 20.9 12.6 65.9 39.0 24.6 114.2
1982 21.5 13.1 66.3 39.6 25.3 112.7
1983 22.0 13.6 66.8 40.7 26.4 111.9
1984 21.9 13.7 66.5 42.5 27.9 113.6
1985 22.4 14.5 66.8 45.9 31.2 117.9
1986 22.8 14.9 67.0 48.0 33.5 121.1
1987 24.5 16.2 69.9 48.9 34.5 123.0
1988 26.4 17.6 73.5 51.5 36.8 130.5
1989 28.7 19.3 78.9 56.0 40.2 140.9
1990 29.6 20.4 78.8 60.7 44.9 143.7
1991 30.9 21.8 80.4 65.7 49.6 148.7
1992 30.4 21.6 78.0 67.3 51.5 147.8
1993 30.6 22.1 76.8 66.9 52.4 141.6
1994 32.0 24.1 75.1 70.1 56.4 141.6
1995 30.5 23.6 68.6 67.6 55.4 131.2
1996 29.0 22.7 64.0 65.9 54.1 129.2
1997 28.2 22.4 60.6 65.2 53.6 127.2
1998 27.0 21.8 56.5 64.2 53.5 123.5
1999 25.5 21.0 51.5 63.3 53.3 117.9
2000 24.4 20.0 49.9 62.9 53.2 116.9

Note: Rates are per 1,000 unmarried women in specified group. Trends in non-marital births may be affected by changes in the reporting of marital status on birth certificates and in procedures for inferring non-marital births when marital status is not reported. Beginning in 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the mother. Prior to 1980, data are tabulated by the race of the child. White and black include those of Hispanic origin for all years. Rates for 1981-1989 have been revised and differ, therefore, from rates published in Vital Statistics in the United States, Vol. 1, Natality, for 1991 and earlier years.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, “Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999,” National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; “Births: Final Data for 2000,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 50 (5), February 2002.

Non-marital Birth Risk Factor 4. Never-married Family Status

Figure BIRTH 4. Percentage of All Children Living in Families with a Never-Married Female Head, by Race/Ethnicity: 1982-2001

Figure BIRTH 4. Percentage of All Children Living in Families with a Never-Married Female Head, by Race/Ethnicity: 1982-2001

Source of CPS data: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Marital Status and Living Arrangements,” Current Population Reports, Series P20-212, 287, 365, 380, 399, 418, 423, 433, 445, 450, 461, 468, 478, 484, 491, 496, 506, 514, 537 various years, and ASPE tabulations of the 2001 CPS.

Source of 1960 data: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1960 Census of Population, PC(2)-4B, “Persons by Family Characteristics,” tables 1 and 19.

  • The percentage of children living in families with never-married female heads increased from under 5 percent in 1982 to nearly 10 percent in 2001.
  • The percentage of white children living in families headed by never-married women has continued to rise over the past twenty years, from less than 2 percent in 1982 to 5.5 percent in 2001.
  • Among Hispanics, the percentage of children living with never-married female heads more than doubled over the past sixteen years, going from less than 6 percent in 1982 to 12 percent in 1996. Since then it has fluctuated up and down by about one-half a percentage point.
  • The percentage of black children living in families headed by never-married women was much higher than the percentages for other groups throughout the time period. However, the percentage dropped nearly three percentage points in the past two years.

Table BIRTH 4. Number and Percentage of All Children Living in Families with a Never-Married Female Head, by Race/Ethnicity: Selected Years

  Number of Children (in thousands) Percentage
All Races/ 
Ethnicities
White Black Hispanic All Races/ 
Ethnicities
White Black Hispanic
1960 221 49 173 0.4 0.1 2.2
1970 527 110 442 0.8 0.2 5.2
1975 1,166 296 864 1.8 0.5 9.9
1980 1,745 501 1,193 210 2.9 1.0 14.5 4.0
1982 2,768 793 1,947 291 4.6 1.6 22.7 5.7
1984 3,131 959 2,109 357 5.2 1.9 23.9 6.5
1986 3,606 1,174 2,375 451 5.9 2.3 26.6 7.2
1987 3,985 1,385 2,524 587 6.5 2.8 28.2 9.2
1988 4,302 1,482 2,736 600 7.0 3.0 30.4 9.2
1989 4,290 1,483 2,695 592 6.9 2.9 29.6 8.7
1990 4,365 1,527 2,738 605 7.0 3.0 29.6 8.7
1991 5,040 1,725 3,176 644 8.0 3.4 33.3 9.0
1992 5,410 2,016 3,192 757 8.4 3.9 33.1 10.3
1993 5,511 2,015 3,317 848 8.5 3.9 33.6 11.3
1994 6,000 2,412 3,321 1,083 9.0 4.5 32.9 12.0
1995 5,862 2,317 3,255 1,017 8.7 4.3 32.3 10.8
1996 6,365 2,563 3,567 1,161 9.4 4.8 34.4 12.0
1997 6,598 2,788 3,575 1,242 9.7 5.1 34.3 12.4
1998 6,700 2,850 3,644 1,254 9.8 5.2 35.1 12.2
1999 6,759 2,841 3,652 1,310 9.8 5.2 35.3 12.3
2000 6,591 2,881 3,413 1,256 9.5 5.3 32.9 11.4
2001 6,636 3,014 3,382 1,340 9.6 5.5 32.4 11.9

Note: Data are for all children under 18 who are not family heads (excludes householders, subfamily reference persons, and their spouses). Also excludes inmates of institutions; children who are living with neither of their parents are excluded from the denominator. Based on Current Population Survey (CPS) except 1960, 1970, and 1980, which are based on decennial census data. Nonwhite data are shown for Black in 1960. In 1982, improved data collection and processing procedures helped to identify parent-child subfamilies. (See Current Population Reports, P-20, 399, Marital Status and Living Arrangements: March 1984.)

Source of CPS data: U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Marital Status and Living Arrangements,” Current Population Reports, Series P20-212, 287, 365, 380, 399, 418, 423, 433, 445, 450, 461, 468, 478, 484, 491, 496, 506, 514, 537, various years, and ASPE tabulations of the 2001 CPS.

Source of 1960 data: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1960 Census of Population, PC(2)-4B, “Persons by Family Characteristics,” tables 1 and 19.

Appendix A: Program Data

The Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 specifies that the annual welfare indicators reports shall include analyses of families and individuals receiving assistance under three means-tested benefit programs: the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program authorized under part A of title IV of the Social Security Act (replaced with the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program by the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996), the Food Stamp Program under the Food Stamp Act of 1977, as amended, and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program under title XVI of the Social Security Act. This chapter includes information on these three programs, derived primarily from administrative data reported by state and federal agencies instead of the national survey data presented in previous chapters. National caseloads and expenditure trend information on each of the three programs is included, as well as state-by-state trend tables on each program and information on the characteristics of participants in each program.

Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)

Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) was established by the Social Security Act of 1935 as a grant program to enable states to provide cash welfare payments for needy children who had been deprived of parental support or care because their father or mother is absent from the home, incapacitated, deceased, or unemployed. All 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands operated an AFDC program. States defined “need,” set their own benefit levels, established (within federal limitations) income and resource limits, and administered the program or supervised its administration. States were entitled to unlimited federal funds for reimbursement of benefit payments, at “matching” rates which were inversely related to state per capita income. States were required to provide aid to all persons who were in classes eligible under federal law and whose income and resources were within state-set limits.

During the 1990s, the federal government increasingly used its authority under Section 1115 of the Social Security Act to waive portions of the federal requirements under AFDC. This allowed states to test such changes as expanded earned income disregards, increased work requirements and stronger sanctions for failure to comply with them, time limits on benefits, and expanded access to transitional benefits such as child care and medical assistance. As a condition of receiving waivers, states were required to conduct rigorous evaluations of the impacts of these changes on the welfare receipt, employment, and earnings of participants.

The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA) replaced AFDC, the Job Opportunities and Basic Skills Training (JOBS) program and the Emergency Assistance (EA) program with a cash welfare block grant called the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. Key elements of TANF include a lifetime limit of five years (60 months) on the amount of time a family with an adult can receive assistance funded with federal funds, increasing work participation rate requirements which states must meet, and broad state flexibility on program design. Spending through the TANF block grant is capped and funded at $16.5 billion per year, slightly above fiscal year 1995 federal expenditures for the four component programs. States must also meet a “maintenance of effort (MOE) requirement” by spending on needy families at least 75 percent of the amount of state funds used in FY 1994 on these programs (80 percent if they fail work participation rate requirements).

TANF gives states wide latitude in spending both Federal TANF funds and state MOE funds. Subject to a few restrictions, TANF funds may be used in any way that supports one of the four statutory purposes of TANF: to provide assistance to needy families so that children can be cared for at home; to end the dependence of needy parents on government benefits by promoting job preparation, work and marriage; to prevent and reduce the incidence of out-of-wedlock pregnancies; and to encourage the formation and maintenance of two-parent families.

Data Issues Relating to the AFDC-TANF Transition

States had the option of beginning their TANF programs as soon as PRWORA was enacted in August 1996, and a few states began TANF programs as early as September 1996. All states were required to implement TANF by July 1, 1997. Because states implemented TANF at different times, the FY 1997 data reflects a combination of the AFDC and TANF programs. In some states, limited data are available for FY 1997 because states were given a transition period of six months after they implemented TANF before they were required to report data on the characteristics and work activities of TANF participants.

Because of the greatly expanded range of activities allowed under TANF, a substantial portion of TANF funds will be spent on activities other than cash payments to families. When tracking overall expenditure trends, the tables in this Appendix (e.g., Table TANF 3) include only those TANF funds spent on “cash and work-based assistance” and “administrative costs,” not on work activities, supportive services, or other allowable uses of funds. Spending on these other activities is detailed in Table TANF 5. Note that TANF administrative costs include funds spent administering all activities, not just cash and work-based assistance. (Administrative costs under AFDC had included a small amount of funds for administering AFDC child care programs; such programs, and the costs of administering them, have now been transferred to the Child Care and Development Fund as part of PRWORA).

There also is potential for discontinuity between the AFDC and the TANF caseload figures. One program change is that there is no longer a separate “Unemployed Parent” program under TANF. While a separate work participation rate is calculated for two-parent families, this population is not identical to the UP caseload under AFDC. Another change under TANF is that some states provide cash and other forms of assistance to specific categories of families (e.g., two-parent families) under Separate State Programs; the TANF caseload figures do not include these families. Finally, it is possible that a limited number of families will be considered recipients of TANF assistance, even if they do not receive a monthly cash benefit. At present, the vast majority of families receiving “assistance”1 are, in fact, receiving cash payments; however, this may change over time.

AFDC/TANF Program Data

The following tables and figures present data on caseloads, expenditures, and recipient characteristics of the AFDC and TANF programs. Trends in national caseloads and expenditures are shown in Figure TANF 1 and the first set of tables (Tables TANF 1-6). These are followed by information on characteristics of AFDC/TANF families (Table TANF 7) and a series of tables presenting state-by-state data on trends in the AFDC/TANF program (Tables TANF 8-13). These data complement the data on trends in AFDC recipiency and participation rates shown in Tables IND 4a and IND 5a in Chapter II.

AFDC/TANF Caseload Trends (Figure TANF 1, Tables TANF 1-2). Welfare caseloads have declined dramatically during the past several years. In fiscal year 2000, the average monthly number of TANF recipients was 6.0 million persons, 53 percent lower than the average monthly AFDC caseload in fiscal year 1996 and the smallest number of people on welfare since 1968. From the peak of 14.4 million in March 1994, the number of AFDC/TANF recipients dropped by 63 percent to 5.3 million in September 2001. Over three-fourths of the reduction in the caseload since March 1994 has occurred following the implementation of TANF. These are the largest welfare caseload declines in the history of U.S. welfare programs.

As shown in Figure TANF 1, AFDC caseloads generally tended to increase in times of economic recession and decline in times of economic growth. The recent decline, however, has far outstripped that experienced in any previous period.

Several studies have attempted to explain the unprecedented decline in caseloads, and specifically, to disentangle the effects of PRWORA and welfare reform from the simultaneous growth in the U.S. economy. Separating these effects is difficult, because PRWORA was enacted at a time when the economy was expanding dramatically, offering a uniquely conducive environment within which to move many welfare recipients off the rolls and into the labor market. Other policy changes, most notably expansions in the Earned Income Tax credit, add further complexity.

In general, studies have found that both economic conditions and welfare reform policies have played important roles in the recent caseload decline. A review of a dozen studies concluded that roughly 15 to 30 percent of the caseload decline prior to 1996 was attributed by most studies to welfare policies under waivers to the AFDC rules with approximately 30 to 45 percent of the decline explained by economic conditions (Schoeni and Blank, 2000). A study by the Council of Economic Advisors (1999) of the post-PRWORA period finds that just over one-third of caseload decline can be explained by welfare reform policy, while 8 to 10 percent is due to the economy. In addition to general labor market conditions, the effects of economic policy post-1996 (namely increases in the minimum wage) explain another 10 to 16 percent of the caseload drop. In both periods, a large portion of the welfare decline is not explained by the examined variables. Possible factors that could account for this additional decline include the expansions of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and changing cultural perceptions of welfare receipt.

AFDC/TANF Expenditures (Tables TANF 3-6 and Figure TANF 2). Tables TANF 3, 4 and 5 show trends in expenditures on AFDC and TANF. Table TANF 3 tracks both programs, breaking out the costs of benefits and administrative expenses. It also shows the division between federal and state spending. Table TANF 4 breaks out the benefits paid under the single parent or “basic” program and the Unemployed Parent (UP) program, and also nets out the value of child support collected on behalf of recipient children, but retained by the state to reimburse welfare expenditures. This table presents data through 1996 only, because the TANF data reporting requirements do not require that caseload data be separated into “basic” and “UP” components. Table TANF 5 shows the variety of activities funded under the TANF program.

Figure TANF 2 and Table TANF 6 shows that inflation has had a significant effect in eroding the value of the average monthly AFDC/TANF benefit. In real dollars, the average monthly benefit per recipient in 2000 was 75 percent of what it was at its peak in the late 1970s. This level was $14 higher than in 1998, but still below the real value of benefits in the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s.

AFDC/TANF Recipient Characteristics (Table TANF 7). With the dramatic declines in the welfare rolls since the implementation of TANF, there has been a great deal of speculation regarding how the composition of the caseload has changed. Two striking trends are the increases in the proportion of child-only cases and in employment among adult recipients.

One of the most dramatic trends is the recent jump in the proportion of adult recipients who are working. In FY 2000, 26 percent of TANF adult recipients were employed, up from 11 percent in FY 1996 and 7 percent in FY 1992, as shown in Table TANF 7. Adding in those in work experience and community service positions, the percentage working was at an all-time high of 33 percent in FY 2000 (data not shown). Similar upward trends are shown in data on income from earnings. These trends likely reflect positive effects of welfare-to-work programs, the strong economy, and the fact that, with larger earnings disregards, families with earnings do not exit welfare as rapidly. In addition, the increased employment of welfare recipients is consistent with broader trends in labor force participation among mothers with young children. Among single mothers with children under six and family income below 200 percent of the Federal poverty level, for example, the employment rate increased from 35 percent in 1992 to 59 percent in 2000. In addition, employment rates for white, black, and Hispanic women ages 18 to 65 with no more than a high school education were at all-time highs in 1999, with some leveling off among white and black women in 2000 (as shown in WORK 2 in Chapter III).

Another dramatic change in the caseload is the increasing fraction of child-only cases. Child only cases have climbed from 11.6 percent of the caseload in FY 1990 to 34.5 percent in FY 2000. This dramatic growth has been due to both the overall decline in the number of adult-present cases as well as an increase in the number of child-only cases. Child-only cases are generally not subject to the work requirements or time limits under TANF.

In other areas, the administrative data show fewer changes in composition than might have been expected. There has been widespread anecdotal evidence that the most job ready recipients — those with the fewest barriers to employment — have already exited the welfare caseload and have stopped coming onto the welfare rolls, leaving a more disadvantaged population remaining. However, as the expectations for welfare recipients have increased, and fewer recipients are totally exempted from work requirements, others have speculated that the most disadvantaged recipients may also have been sanctioned off the rolls or terminated for failure to comply with administrative requirements. In fact, analyses of program data have not found much evidence of an increase or decline in readily observed barriers to employment in the current caseload.

The question of whether the caseload has become more disadvantaged cannot be answered simply through administrative data provided by the states, which do not contain detailed information on such barriers to employment as lack of basic skills, alcohol and drug abuse, domestic violence, and disabilities. A few recent studies have found very high levels of these barriers among the TANF population. These studies have also found that the effects of these barriers are interactive; while any one barrier to employment can often be overcome, the more barriers a recipient faces, the less likely she is to find a job and maintain consistent employment over a period of time.

AFDC/TANF State-by-State Trends (Tables TANF 8-14). There is a great deal of state-to-state variation in the trends discussed above. For example, as shown in Table TANF 10, while every state has experienced a caseload decline since 1993, the percentage change between the state’s caseload peak and June 2001 ranges from 93 percent (Wyoming) to 35 percent (Rhode Island). Seven states have experienced caseload declines of 75 percent or more. Table TANF 10 also shows that states reached their peak caseloads as early as May 1990 (Louisiana) and as late as May 1995 (Maryland).

Figure TANF 1. AFDC/TANF Families Receiving Income Assistance

Figure TANF 1. AFDC/TANF Families Receiving Income Assistance

Note: “Basic families” are single-parent families and “UP families” are two-parent cases receiving benefits under AFDC Unemployed Parent programs that operated in certain states before FY 1991 and in all states after October 1, 1990. The AFDC Basic and UP programs were replaced by TANF as of July 1, 1997 under the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. Shaded areas indicate NBER designated periods of recession from peak to trough. The decrease in number of families receiving assistance during the 1981-82 recession stems from changes in eligibility requirements and other policy changes mandated by OBRA 1981. Last data point plotted is June 2001.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation.

Figure TANF 2. Average Monthly AFDC/TANF Benefit per Recipient in Constant Dollars

Figure TANF 2. Average Monthly AFDC/TANF Benefit per Recipient in Constant Dollars

Note: See Table TANF 6 for underlying data.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics, 1992 & 1993, and unpublished data.

Table TANF 1. Trends in AFDC/TANF Caseloads, 1962 – 2000

Fiscal Year  Average Monthly Number (In thousands) Children as a Percent of Total Recipients Average1Number of Children per Family
Total Families1 Total Recipients Unemployed Parent Families Unemployed Parent Recipients Total Children
1962 924 3,593 49 224 2,778 77.3 3.0
1963 950 3,834 54 291 2,896 75.5 3.0
1964 984 4,059 60 343 3,043 75.0 3.1
1965 1,037 4,323 69 400 3,242 75.0 3.1
1966 1,074 4,472 62 361 3,369 75.3 3.1
1967 1,141 4,718 58 340 3,561 75.5 3.1
1968 1,307 5,348 67 377 4,011 75.0 3.1
1969 1,538 6,147 66 361 4,591 74.7 3.0
1970 1,909 7,429 78 420 5,494 74.0 2.9
1971 2,532 9,556 143 726 6,963 72.9 2.8
1972 2,918 10,632 134 639 7,698 72.4 2.6
1973 3,124 11,038 120 557 7,965 72.2 2.5
1974 3,170 10,845 95 434 7,824 72.1 2.5
1975 3,357 11,067 101 451 7,928 71.6 2.4
1976 3,575 11,339 135 593 8,156 71.9 2.3
1977 3,593 11,108 149 659 7,818 70.4 2.2
1978 3,539 10,663 128 567 7,475 70.1 2.1
1979 3,496 10,311 114 506 7,193 69.8 2.1
1980 3,642 10,597 141 612 7,320 69.1 2.0
1981 3,871 11,160 209 881 7,615 68.2 2.0
1982 3,569 10,431 232 976 6,975 66.9 2.0
1983 3,651 10,659 272 1,144 7,051 66.1 1.9
1984 3,725 10,866 287 1,222 7,153 65.8 1.9
1985 3,692 10,813 261 1,131 7,165 66.3 1.9
1986 3,748 10,997 254 1,102 7,300 66.4 1.9
1987 3,784 11,065 236 1,035 7,381 66.7 2.0
1988 3,748 10,920 210 929 7,325 67.1 2.0
1989 3,771 10,934 193 856 7,370 67.4 2.0
1990 3,974 11,460 204 899 7,755 67.7 2.0
1991 4,374 12,592 268 1,148 8,513 67.6 1.9
1992 4,768 13,625 322 1,348 9,226 67.7 1.9
1993 4,981 14,143 359 1,489 9,560 67.6 1.9
1994 5,046 14,226 363 1,510 9,611 67.6 1.9
1995 4,879 13,659 335 1,384 9,280 67.9 1.9
1996 4,543 12,645 301 1,241 8,671 68.6 1.9
19972 3,937 10,935 2753 1,1583 7,7813 71.23 2.03
1998 3,200 8,796 179 753 4 6,273 71.3 2.0
1999 2,674 7,188 NA NA 5,319 74.0 2.0
2000 2,269 5,961 NA NA 4,385 73.6 1.9

Footnotes:

1Includes unemployed parent families and child-only cases.

2The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC program as of July 1, 1997 and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program.

3Based on data from the old AFDC reporting system which was available only for the first 9 months of the fiscal year.

4Estimated based on the ratio of Unemployed Parent recipients to Unemployed Parent families in 1997.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, (Available online at http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/).

Table TANF 2. Number of AFDC/TANF Recipients, and Recipients as a Percentage of Various Population Groups, 1970 – 2000

Calendar Year1 Total Recipients in the States & DC (in thousands) Child Recipients in the States & DC (in thousands) Recipients as a Percent of Total Population2 Recipients as a Percent of Poverty Population3 Recipients as a Percent of Pretransfer Poverty Population4 Child Recipients as a Percent of Total Child Population2 Child Recipients as a Percent of Children in Poverty3
1970 8,303 6,104 4.1 32.7 NA 8.8 58.5
1971 10,043 7,303 4.9 39.3 NA 10.5 69.2
1972 10,736 7,766 5.1 43.9 NA 11.2 75.5
1973 10,738 7,763 5.1 46.7 NA 11.3 80.5
1974 10,621 7,637 5.0 45.4 NA 11.3 75.2
1975 11,131 7,928 5.2 43.0 NA 11.8 71.4
1976 11,098 7,850 5.1 44.4 NA 11.8 76.4
1977 10,856 7,632 4.9 43.9 NA 11.7 74.2
1978 10,387 7,270 4.7 42.4 NA 11.2 73.2
1979 10,140 7,057 4.5 38.9 53.1 11.0 68.0
1980 10,599 7,295 4.7 36.2 49.2 11.4 63.2
1981 10,893 7,397 4.7 34.2 47.1 11.7 59.2
1982 10,161 6,767 4.4 29.5 40.6 10.8 49.6
1983 10,569 6,967 4.5 29.9 41.9 11.1 50.1
1984 10,643 7,017 4.5 31.6 43.6 11.2 52.3
1985 10,672 7,073 4.5 32.3 45.0 11.3 54.4
1986 10,850 7,206 4.5 33.5 46.6 11.5 56.0
1987 10,841 7,240 4.5 33.6 46.7 11.5 55.9
1988 10,728 7,201 4.4 33.8 47.7 11.4 57.8
1989 10,798 7,286 4.4 34.3 47.6 11.5 57.9
1990 11,497 7,781 4.6 34.2 47.1 12.1 57.9
1991 12,728 8,601 5.0 35.6 49.1 13.2 60.0
1992 13,571 9,189 5.3 35.7 50.8 13.9 60.1
1993 14,007 9,460 5.4 35.7 48.5 14.1 60.2
1994 13,970 9,448 5.4 36.7 50.0 13.9 61.8
1995 13,241 9,013 5.0 36.4 50.1 13.1 61.5
1996 12,156 8,355 4.6 33.3 46.4 12.1 57.8
1997 10,224 7,340 5 3.8 28.7 40.7 10.5 52.0
1998 8,221 5,770 3.0 23.8 34.7 8.3 42.8
1999 6,715 4,841 2.5 20.8 31.0 6.9 40.0
2000 5,700 4,197 2.0 18.3 28.0 5.8 36.1

Footnotes:

1Total recipients are calculated here as the monthly average for the calendar year in order to compare with the calendar year counts of the poverty populations used to compute the recipiency rates. See Table IND 3a for fiscal year recipiency rates.

2Population numbers used as denominators are resident population. See Current Population Reports, Series P25-1106.

3For poverty population data see Current Population Reports, Series P60-210 and Resident Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex, April 1, 1990 to July 1, 2000, Internet release date January 2, 2001.

4The pretransfer poverty population used as denominator is the number of all persons in families with related children under 18 years of age whose income (cash income plus social insurance plus Social Security but before taxes and means-tested transfers) falls below the appropriate poverty threshold. See Appendix J, Table 20,1992 Green Book; data for subsequent years are unpublished Congressional Budget Office tabulations.

5Average for January through June of 1997.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Poverty in the United States: 2000, Current Population Reports, Series P60-214 and earlier years, (Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html).

Table TANF 3. Total AFDC/TANF Expenditures on Cash Benefits and Administration, 1970 – 2000 [In millions of dollars]

Fiscal Year Federal Funds
(Current Dollars)
State Funds
(Current Dollars) 
Total 
(Current Dollars)
Total
(Constant ’00 Dollars1)
Benefits Adminis-
trative
Benefits Adminis-
trative
Benefits Adminis-
trative
Benefits Adminis-
trative
1970 $2,187 $5722 $1,895 $309 $4,082 $8812 $17,258 $3,725
1971 3,008 271 2,469 254 5,477 525 22,168 2,125
1972 3,612 2403 2,942 241 6,554 4813 25,616 NA
1973.. 3,865 313 3,138 296 7,003 610 26,288 2,290
1974 4,071 379 3,300 362 7,371 740 25,485 2,559
1975 4,625 552 3,787 529 8,412 1,082 26,509 3,410
1976 5,258 541 4,418 527 9,676 1,069 28,543 3,154
1977 5,626 595 4,762 583 10,388 1,177 28,525 3,232
1978 5,724 631 4,898 617 10,621 1,248 27,362 3,215
1979 5,825 683 4,954 668 10,779 1,350 25,535 3,198
1980 6,448 750 5,508 729 11,956 1,479 25,462 3,150
1981 6,928 835 5,917 814 12,845 1,648 24,874 3,191
1982 6,922 878 5,934 878 12,857 1,756 23,263 3,177
1983 7,332 915 6,275 915 13,607 1,830 23,547 3,167
1984 7,707 876 6,664 822 14,371 1,698 23,854 2,818
1985 7,817 890 6,763 889 14,580 1,779 23,361 2,850
1986 8,239 993 6,996 967 15,235 1,960 23,807 3,063
1987 8,914 1,081 7,409 1,052 16,323 2,133 24,804 3,241
1988 9,125 1,194 7,538 1,159 16,663 2,353 24,325 3,435
1989 9,433 1,211 7,807 1,206 17,240 2,417 24,018 3,367
1990 10,149 1,358 8,390 1,303 18,539 2,661 24,603 3,532
1991 11,165 1,373 9,191 1,300 20,356 2,673 25,716 3,377
1992 12,258 1,459 9,993 1,378 22,250 2,837 27,281 3,479
1993 12,270 1,518 10,016 1,438 22,286 2,956 26,526 3,518
1994 12,512 1,680 10,285 1,621 22,797 3,301 26,434 3,828
1995 12,019 1,770 10,014 1,751 22,032 3,521 24,855 3,973
1996 11,065 1,633 9,346 1,633 20,411 3,266 22,404 3,585
19974 9,748 1,273 7,799 1,098 17,547 2,371 18,755 2,534
1998 7,518 1,231 7,096 1,028 14,614 2,259 15,370 2,376
1999 6,475 1,407 6,975 884 13,449 2,291 13,880 2,364
2000 5,096 1,506 6,386 899 11,481 2,405 11,481 2,405

Note: Benefits do not include emergency assistance payments and have not been reduced by child support collections. Foster care payments are included from 1971 to 1980. Beginning in fiscal year 1984, the cost of certifying AFDC households for food stamps is shown in the food stamp program’s appropriation under the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Administrative costs include: Work Program, ADP, FAMIS, Fraud Control, Child Care administration (through 1996), SAVE and other State and local administrative expenditures.

Footnotes:

1Constant dollar adjustments to 2000 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year price index.

2Includes expenditures for services.

3Administrative expenditures only.

4The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC program as of July 1, 1997 and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program. Under PRWORA, spending categories are not entirely equivalent to those under AFDC: for example administrative expenses under TANF do not include IV-A child care administration (which accounted for 4 percent of 1996 administrative expense).

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Financial Systems.

Table TANF 4. Federal and State AFDC Benefit Payments Under the Single Parent and Unemployed Parent Programs, Fiscal Years 1970 to 1996 [In millions of current and 1996 dollars]

Fiscal Year [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]
Single Parent1 Unemployed Parent Child Support Collections2 Net Benefits3
[1] + [2] minus [3]
Net Benefits
(1996 dollars)4
1970 3,851 231 0 4,082 15,722
1971 4,993 412 0 5,405 19,882
1972 5,972 422 0 6,394 22,715
1973 6,459 414 0 6,873 22,504
1974 6,881 324 0 7,205 22,740
1975 7,791 362 0 8,153 23,363
1976 8,825 525 245 9,105 24,469
1977 9,420 617 395 9,642 24,121
1978 9,624 565 459 9,730 22,870
1979 9,865 522 584 9,803 21,156
1980 10,847 693 593 10,947 21,186
1981 11,769 1,075 659 12,185 21,472
1982 11,601 1,256 771 12,086 19,879
1983 12,136 1,471 865 12,742 20,128
1984 12,759 1,612 983 13,388 20,264
1985 13,024 1,556 901 13,679 19,967
1986 13,672 1,563 951 14,284 20,335
1987 14,807 1,516 1,070 15,252 21,115
1988 15,243 1,420 1,196 15,466 20,569
1989 15,889 1,350 1,286 15,952 20,246
1990 17,059 1,480 1,416 17,123 20,702
1991 18,529 1,827 1,603 18,753 21,583
1992 20,130 2,121 1,824 20,426 22,816
1993 19,988 2,298 1,971 20,315 22,028
1994 20,393 2,404 2,093 20,704 21,871
1995 19,820 2,212 2,215 19,817 20,367
1996 18,438 1,973 2,374 18,037 18,037

Footnotes:

1Includes payments to two-parent families where one adult is incapacitated.

2Total AFDC collections (including collections on behalf of foster care children) less payments to AFDC families.

3Net AFDC benefits Gross benefits less those reimbursed by child support collections.

4Constant dollar adjustments to 1996 level were made using a CPI-U-XI fiscal year price index.

Note:Data are not available after 1996 because the TANF data reporting requirements do not require that caseload data be separated into single parent and unemployed parent components.

Source:U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Financial Management.

Table TANF 5. Federal and State TANF Program and Other Related Spending, Fiscal Years: 1997 to 2000 (Millions)

Fiscal Year Cash & Work-Based Assistance Work Activities Child Care Trans-
portation
Adminis-
tration
Systems Transitional Services Other Expenditures Total Expendi-
tures
Federal TANF Grants
1997 7,708 467 14 872 109 0 862 10,032
1998 7,518 958 252 987 247 11 1,306 11,279
1999 6,475 1,225 604 1,070 337 17 1,595 11,323
2000 5,096 1,515 1,411 460 1,265 240 2,496 12,483
State Maintenance of Effort Expenditures in the TANF Program
1997 5,955 311 752 704 101 9 926 8,758
1998 6,879 520 890 883 138 11 1,301 10,623
1999 6,541 503 1,135 743 118 23 1,334 10,397
2000 5,774 743 1,701 126 805 81 903 10,132
State Maintenance of Effort Expenditures in Separate State Programs
1997 69 12 111 0 0 18 210
1998 216 3 137 6 1 28 391
1999 434 26 257 22 0 0 126 865
2000 611 14 29 8 13 0 298 975
Total Expenditures
1997 13,731 790 877 1,577 211 9 1,805 19,000
1998 14,614 1,481 1,280 1,877 385 22 2,635 22,294
1999 13,449 1,754 1,995 1,835 456 40 3,055 22,585
2000 11,481 2,272 3,142 594 2,083 321 3,697 22,996

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Financial Services.

Table TANF 6. Trends in AFDC/TANF Average Monthly Payments, 1962 – 2000

Fiscal Year  Monthly Benefit per Recipient Average Number of Persons per Family  Monthly Benefit per Family
(not reduced by Child Support)
Weighted Average1Maximum Benefit (per 3-person Family)
Current Dollars 2000 Dollars Current Dollars 1999 Dollars Current Dollars 2000 Dollars
1962 $31 $163 3.9 $121 $634 NA NA
1963 31 161 4.0 126 650 NA NA
1964 32 162 4.1 131 670 NA NA
1965 34 169 4.2 140 705 NA NA
1966 35 172 4.2 146 716 NA NA
1967 36 173 4.1 150 716 NA NA
1968 40 182 4.1 162 746 NA NA
1969 43 192 4.0 173 766 $1862 $827
1970 46 194 3.9 178 753 1942 822
1971 48 193 3.8 180 730 2012 814
1972 51 201 3.6 187 732 2052 803
1973 53 198 3.5 187 701 2132 799
1974 57 196 3.4 194 670 2292 791
1975 63 199 3.3 209 658 243 766
1976 71 209 3.2 226 665 257 757
1977 78 214 3.1 241 662 271 744
1978 83 214 3.0 249 644 284 732
1979 87 206 2.9 257 609 301 713
1980 94 200 2.9 274 583 320 682
1981 96 186 2.9 277 536 326 631
1982 103 186 2.9 300 543 331 598
1983 106 184 2.9 311 537 336 582
1984 110 183 2.9 321 534 352 584
1985 112 180 2.9 329 527 369 591
1986 115 180 2.9 339 529 383 599
1987 123 187 2.9 359 546 393 598
1988 127 186 2.9 370 541 404 590
1989 131 183 2.9 381 531 412 575
1990 135 179 2.9 389 516 421 559
1991 135 170 2.9 388 490 425 537
1992 136 167 2.9 389 477 419 513
1993 131 156 2.8 373 444 414 493
1994 134 155 2.8 376 437 420 482
1995 134 152 2.8 376 425 418 472
1996 135 148 2.8 374 410 422 463
19973 136 146 2.8 379 405 420 449
1998 141 148 2.7 386 406 432 454
1999 159 164 2.7 426 439 452 466
2000 163 163 2.6 428 428 447 447

Footnotes:

1The maximum benefit for a 3-person family in each state is weighted by that states share of total AFDC families.

2Estimated based on the weighted average benefit for a 4-person family.

3The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 repealed the AFDC program as of July 1, 1997 and replaced it with the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program.

Note: AFDC benefit amounts have not been reduced by child support collections. Constant dollar adjustments to 2000 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year price index.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Quarterly Public Assistance Statistics, 1992, 1993 and earlier years along with unpublished data.

Table TANF 7. Characteristics of AFDC/TANF Families, Selected Years 1969 – 2000

  May May March Fiscal year1
1969 1975 1979 1983 1988 1990 1992 1996 1998 2000
Avg. Family Size (persons) 4.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.6
Number of Child Recipients
   One 26.6 37.9 42.3 43.4 42.5 42.2 42.5 43.9 42.4 44.2
   Two 23.0 26.0 28.1 29.8 30.2 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.6 28.4
   Three 17.7 16.1 15.6 15.2 15.8 15.8 15.5 15.0 15.7 15.3
   Four or More 32.5 20.0 13.9 10.1 9.9 9.9 10.1 9.2 10.6 10.1
   Unknown NA NA NA 1.5 1.7 1.4 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.0
Child-Only Families 10.1 12.5 14.6 8.3 9.6 11.6 14.8 21.5 23.4 34.5
Families with Non-Recipients 33.1 34.8 NA 36.9 36.8 37.7 38.9 49.9
Median Months on AFDC/TANF
   Since Most Recent Opening 23.0 31.0 29.0 26.0 26.3 23.0 22.5 23.6
Presence of Assistance
   Living in Public Housing 12.8 14.6 NA 10.0 9.6 9.6 9.2 8.8 NA 17.7
Participating in Food Stamp
   Or Donated Food Program 52.9 75.1 75.1 83.0 84.6 85.6 87.3 89.3 83.5 79.9
Presence of Income
   With Earnings NA 14.6 12.8 5.7 8.4 8.2 7.4 11.1 20.64 23.64
   No Non-AFDC/TANF Income 56.0 71.1 80.6 86.8 79.6 80.1 78.9 76.0 73.04 71.64
Adult Employment Status (percent of adults)
   Employed 7.0 6.6 11.3 22.8 26.4
   Unemployed 45.0 49.2
   Not in Labor Force 28.3 24.3
   Unknown 4.0
Adult Women's employment status (percent of adult female recipients):3
   Full-time job 8.2 10.4 8.7 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.2 4.7
   Part-time job 6.3 5.7 5.4 3.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 5.4
Marital Status (percent of adults)
   Single 52.5 65.3
   Married 16.4 12.4
   Separated 11.7 13.1
   Widowed 0.7 0.7
   Divorced 8.8 8.5
   Unknown 9.9
Basis for Child's Eligibility (percent children):
   Incapacitated 11.72 7.7 5.3 3.4 3.7 3.6 4.1 4.3
   Unemployed 4.62 3.7 4.1 8.7 6.5 6.4 8.2 8.3
   Death 5.52 3.7 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6
   Divorce or Separation 43.32 48.3 44.7 38.5 34.6 32.9 30.0 24.3
   Absent, No Marriage Tie 27.92 31.0 37.8 44.3 51.9 54.0 53.1 58.6
   Absent, Other Reason 3.5 2 4.0 5.9 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.4
   Unknown 1.7 0.9 0.6

Note: Figures are percentages of families/cases unless noted otherwise.

1Percentages are based on the average monthly caseload during the year. Hawaii and the territories are not included in 1983. Data after 1986 include the territories and Hawaii.

2Calculated on the basis of total number of families.

3For years prior to 1983, data are for mothers only.

4Presence of income is measured as a percentage of adult recipients, not families, in 1998 and subsequent years.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Family Assistance, Characteristics and Financial Circumstances of TANF Recipients: 2001 TANF Annual Report to Congress and earlier years.

Table TANF 8. AFDC/TANF Benefits by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1978 – 2000 [Millions of dollars]

  1978 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1994 1996 1998 2000
United States $10,621 $12,857 $14,371 $15,236 $16,663 $18,543 $22,798 $20,411 $14,614 $11,481
Alabama $78 $72 $74 $68 $62 $62 $92 $75 $44 $37
Alaska 17 32 37 46 54 60 113 107 77 55
Arizona 30 49 67 79 103 138 266 228 145 110
Arkansas 51 34 39 48 53 57 57 52 26 31
California 1,813 2,734 3,207 3,574 4,091 4,955 6,088 5,908 4,128 4,021
Colorado 74 87 107 107 125 137 158 129 80 48
Connecticut 168 210 226 223 218 295 397 323 305 166
Delaware 28 28 28 25 24 29 40 35 24 20
Dist. of Columbia 91 86 75 77 76 84 126 121 97 72
Florida 145 207 251 261 318 418 806 680 357 234
Georgia 103 172 149 223 266 321 428 385 313 135
Guam 3 4 5 4 3 5 12 14 UA UA
Hawaii 83 88 83 73 77 99 163 173 153 141
Idaho 21 20 21 19 19 20 30 30 6 3
Illinois 699 802 845 886 815 839 914 833 771 269
Indiana 118 139 153 148 167 170 228 153 104 87
Iowa 107 127 159 170 155 152 169 131 104 79
Kansas 73 81 87 91 97 105 123 98 41 43
Kentucky 122 123 135 104 143 179 198 191 147 104
Louisiana 97 127 145 162 182 188 168 130 103 70
Maine 51 59 69 84 80 101 108 99 80 73
Maryland 166 213 229 250 250 296 314 285 192 196
Massachusetts 476 468 406 471 558 630 730 560 442 237
Michigan 780 1,064 1,214 1,248 1,231 1,211 1,132 779 589 334
Minnesota 164 235 287 322 338 355 379 333 276 193
Mississippi 33 55 58 74 85 86 82 68 60 21
Missouri 152 175 196 209 215 228 287 254 180 139
Montana 15 19 27 37 41 40 49 45 30 21
Nebraska 38 49 56 62 56 59 62 54 41 41
Nevada 8 12 10 16 20 27 48 48 39 18
New Hampshire 21 25 16 20 21 32 62 50 39 32
New Jersey 489 513 485 509 459 451 531 462 372 222
New Mexico 32 45 49 51 56 61 144 153 104 113
New York 1,689 1,641 1,916 2,099 2,140 2,259 2,913 2,929 2,149 1,832
North Carolina 138 143 149 138 206 247 353 300 211 140
North Dakota 14 14 16 20 22 24 26 21 22 12
Ohio 441 606 725 804 805 877 1,016 763 546 368
Oklahoma 74 74 85 100 119 132 165 122 72 65
Oregon 148 100 101 120 128 145 197 155 141 76
Pennsylvania 726 740 724 389 747 798 935 822 523 485
Puerto Rico 25 65 38 33 67 72 74 63 UA UA
Rhode Island 59 70 71 79 82 99 136 125 117 100
South Carolina 52 76 75 103 91 96 115 101 52 27
South Dakota 18 17 17 15 21 22 25 22 14 10
Tennessee 77 74 83 100 125 168 215 190 108 137
Texas 122 118 229 281 344 416 544 496 315 264
Utah 41 47 52 55 61 64 77 64 50 40
Vermont 21 38 40 40 40 48 65 56 47 36
Virgin Islands 2 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 UA UA
Virginia 136 166 165 179 169 177 253 199 123 100
Washington 175 240 294 375 401 438 610 585 450 311
West Virginia 53 56 75 109 107 110 126 101 52 49
Wisconsin 260 406 519 444 506 440 425 291 145 60
Wyoming 6 9 13 16 19 19 21 17 7 4

Note: Benefits refers to total cash benefits paid (see Table TANF 3) but does not include emergency assistance payments. UA denotes data unavailable.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Program Support, Office of Management Services, data from the ACF-196 TANF Report and ACF-231 AFDC Line by Line Report.

Table TANF 9. Comparison of Federal Funding for AFDC and Related Programs and 2000 Family Assistance Grants Awarded Under PRWORA [In millions]

State FY 1996 Grants for AFDC, EA & JOBS1 FY 2000 State Family Assistance Grant2 Increase from FY 1996 Level Percent Increase from FY 1996 Level
United States $15,067 $17,007 $1,940 13
Alabama $79.0 $121.5 $43 54
Alaska 60.7 65.7 5 8
Arizona 200.6 258.7 58 29
Arkansas 54.3 61.3 7 13
California 3,545.6 3,775.6 230 6
Colorado 138.9 146.1 7 5
Connecticut 221.1 269.2 48 22
Delaware 30.2 33.9 4 12
Dist of Columbia 77.1 112.6 35 46
Florida 504.7 613.9 109 22
Georgia 301.2 358.4 57 19
Hawaii 98.4 99.8 1 1
Idaho 31.3 33.1 2 6
Illinois 593.8 626.6 33 6
Indiana 121.4 215.6 94 78
Iowa 129.3 132.7 3 3
Kansas 86.9 101.9 15 17
Kentucky 171.6 181.3 10 6
Louisiana 122.4 180.4 58 47
Maine 73.2 78.1 5 7
Maryland 207.6 229.1 21 10
Massachusetts 372.0 469.9 98 26
Michigan 581.5 797.9 216 37
Minnesota 239.3 276.6 37 16
Mississippi 68.6 93.5 25 36
Missouri 207.9 217.1 9 4
Montana 39.2 45.1 6 15
Nebraska 56.2 58.0 2 3
Nevada 41.2 48.9 8 19
New Hampshire 36.0 38.5 2 7
New Jersey 353.4 404.0 51 14
New Mexico 129.9 132.7 3 2
New York 2,332.7 2,450.9 118 5
North Carolina 311.9 329.0 17 5
North Dakota 24.5 27.3 3 11
Ohio 564.5 728.0 164 29
Oklahoma 125.1 151.0 26 21
Oregon 146.4 166.8 20 14
Pennsylvania 780.1 743.7 -36 -5
Rhode Island 82.9 97.5 15 18
South Carolina 99.4 101.2 2 2
South Dakota 19.7 21.8 2 11
Tennessee 178.9 213.9 35 20
Texas 437.1 541.6 105 24
Utah 68.0 85.9 18 26
Vermont 42.4 47.4 5 12
Virginia 134.6 158.3 24 18
Washington 393.2 413.9 21 5
West Virginia 95.1 112.7 18 18
Wisconsin 241.6 317.0 75 31
Wyoming 14.4 21.7 7 51

Footnotes:

1Includes Administration and FAMIS but excludes IV-A child care. AFDC benefits include the Federal share of child support collections to be comparable to the Family Assistance Grant. The 1996 figures have been revised since earlier versions of this report, to reflect upward revisions in states' reports of expenditures on the JOBS program.

2The FY 2000 awards include State Family Assistance Grants, Supplemental Grants for Population Increases, Out of Wedlock Bonus and High Performance Bonus. Totals for AZ, CA, OK, OR, SD WI, and WY include funds for Tribes operating TANF within the State.

Source: U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Financial Services.

Table TANF 10. AFDC/TANF Caseload by State, October 1989 to June 2001 Peak [In thousands]

State

Peak Caseload Oct '89 to June 2001 Date Peak Occurred Oct '89 to June 2001 August '96 Caseload June 2001 Caseload Percent Decline August '96 to June 20011 Percent Decline Peak to June 2001
United States 5,098 Mar-94 4,409 2,088 53 59
Alabama 52.3 Mar-93 41.0 18.0 56 66
Alaska 13.4 Apr-94 12.2 6.0 51 55
Arizona 72.8 Dec-93 62.4 33.4 46 54
Arkansas 27.1 Mar-92 22.1 12.1 45 55
California 933.1 Mar-95 880.4 462.2 47 50
Colorado 43.7 Dec-93 34.5 10.7 69 76
Connecticut 61.9 Mar-95 57.3 25.4 56 59
Delaware 11.8 Apr-94 10.6 5.5 48 53
Dist. Of Columbia 27.5 Apr-94 25.4 16.1 36 41
Florida 259.9 Nov-92 200.9 56.1 72 78
Georgia 142.8 Nov-93 123.3 49.7 60 65
Guam 3.0 Jun-00 2.2 3.0 -32 0
Hawaii 23.4 Jun-97 21.9 12.6 42 46
Idaho 9.5 Mar-95 8.6 1.3 85 86
Illinois 243.1 Aug-94 220.3 58.9 73 76
Indiana 76.1 Sep-93 51.4 42.4 18 44
Iowa 40.7 Apr-94 31.6 20.4 35 50
Kansas 30.8 Aug-93 23.8 13.1 45 57
Kentucky 84.0 Mar-93 71.3 35.4 50 58
Louisiana 94.7 May-90 67.5 24.1 64 75
Maine 24.4 Aug-93 20.0 9.6 52 61
Maryland 81.8 May-95 70.7 27.4 61 67
Massachusetts 115.7 Aug-93 84.7 41.5 51 64
Michigan 233.6 Apr-91 170.0 72.1 58 69
Minnesota 66.2 Jun-92 57.7 39.2 32 41
Mississippi 61.8 Nov-91 46.4 15.9 66 74
Missouri 93.7 Mar-94 80.1 44.9 44 52
Montana 12.3 Mar-94 10.1 5.1 50 59
Nebraska 17.2 Mar-93 14.4 9.5 34 44
Nevada 16.3 Mar-95 13.7 7.7 44 53
New Hampshire 11.8 Apr-94 9.1 5.7 37 52
New Jersey 132.6 Nov-92 101.7 44.4 56 66
New Mexico 34.9 Nov-94 33.4 18.2 45 48
New York 463.7 Dec-94 418.3 221.8 47 52
North Carolina 134.1 Mar-94 110.1 41.3 63 69
North Dakota 6.6 Apr-93 4.8 3.0 36 54
Ohio 269.8 Mar-92 204.2 82.2 60 70
Oklahoma 51.3 Mar-93 36.0 13.5 62 74
Oregon 43.8 Apr-93 29.9 19.2 36 56
Pennsylvania 212.5 Sep-94 186.3 81.5 56 62
Puerto Rico 61.7 Jan-92 49.9 25.6 49 59
Rhode Island 22.9 Apr-94 20.7 14.9 28 35
South Carolina 54.6 Jan-93 44.1 16.9 62 69
South Dakota 7.4 Apr-93 5.8 2.7 54 64
Tennessee 112.6 Nov-93 97.2 59.9 38 47
Texas 287.5 Dec-93 243.5 127.5 48 56
Utah 18.7 Mar-93 14.2 7.7 46 59
Vermont 10.3 Apr-92 8.8 5.5 37 46
Virgin Islands 1.4 Dec-95 1.4 0.7 50 53
Virginia 76.0 Apr-94 61.9 28.8 53 62
Washington 104.8 Feb-95 97.5 54.1 45 48
West Virginia 41.9 Apr-93 37.0 15.0 60 64
Wisconsin 82.9 Jan-92 51.9 18.1 65 78
Wyoming 7.1 Aug-92 4.3 0.5 89 93

Note:

1Negative values denote percent increase.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, Division of Data Collection and Analysis.

Table TANF 11. Average Monthly AFDC/TANF Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1965 –2000 [In thousands]

  1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989 1994 2000 Percent Change
1989-94 1994-00
United States 4,323 7,415 11,094 10,597 10,813 10,935 14,226 5,961 30 -58
Alabama 78 123 160 180 151 129 132 56 2 -57
Alaska 5 8 12 15 16 19 38 24 96 -37
Arizona 40 51 71 51 72 105 201 87 91 -57
Arkansas 30 45 101 85 64 70 69 29 -0 -58
California 528 1,148 1,362 1,387 1,619 1,763 2,639 1,308 50 -50
Colorado 42 66 96 77 79 97 119 29 22 -76
Connecticut 59 83 125 139 122 106 166 66 56 -60
Delaware 12 20 31 32 24 19 27 13 43 -53
Dist. of Columbia 20 40 103 85 58 48 74 47 55 -37
Florida 106 204 265 256 271 327 669 153 105 -77
Georgia 71 198 354 221 239 266 393 129 48 -67
Guam 1 2 3 5 6 4 7 10 67 46
Hawaii 14 25 47 60 51 43 62 44 45 -28
Idaho 10 16 19 21 17 17 23 2 38 -90
Illinois 262 368 777 672 735 632 712 254 13 -64
Indiana 48 73 162 157 165 147 216 99 47 -54
Iowa 44 64 85 104 123 98 110 53 13 -52
Kansas 36 53 67 68 67 74 87 32 17 -64
Kentucky 81 129 159 167 160 156 208 89 34 -57
Louisiana 104 202 235 213 230 277 248 75 -10 -70
Maine 19 36 80 60 57 51 64 28 27 -56
Maryland 80 131 216 212 195 176 222 73 26 -67
Massachusetts 94 208 347 350 235 242 307 101 27 -67
Michigan 162 253 641 685 691 640 666 207 4 -69
Minnesota 51 76 124 135 152 164 187 116 14 -38
Mississippi 83 115 186 173 155 179 159 34 -11 -79
Missouri 107 140 260 199 197 203 263 125 30 -53
Montana 7 13 22 19 22 28 35 13 26 -63
Nebraska 16 30 38 35 44 41 45 24 10 -47
Nevada 5 12 14 12 14 20 38 16 89 -58
New Hampshire 4 9 26 22 14 13 30 14 139 -54
New Jersey 104 286 440 459 367 298 335 130 13 -61
New Mexico 30 51 61 53 51 59 102 72 74 -29
New York 517 1,052 1,210 1,100 1,112 979 1,255 724 28 -42
North Carolina 111 124 170 198 166 200 333 100 66 -70
North Dakota 8 11 14 13 12 15 16 9 8 -47
Ohio 183 266 535 513 673 629 685 245 9 -64
Oklahoma 73 95 97 89 82 103 131 35 27 -73
Oregon 31 75 99 102 74 87 114 42 31 -63
Pennsylvania 303 426 627 629 561 523 620 239 19 -61
Puerto Rico 202 223 232 168 173 185 183 92 -2 -49
Rhode Island 24 38 52 52 44 42 63 45 50 -28
South Carolina 30 52 135 153 120 107 140 37 30 -73
South Dakota 11 16 25 20 16 19 19 7 1 -65
Tennessee 76 129 201 162 155 195 300 151 53 -49
Texas 91 214 394 308 363 540 788 342 46 -57
Utah 22 33 34 37 38 44 50 22 14 -55
Vermont 5 12 21 23 22 20 28 16 41 -42
Virgin Islands 1 2 4 3 4 3 4 3 11 -15
Virginia 46 87 174 166 154 146 195 73 34 -63
Washington 71 109 143 154 178 219 292 153 33 -47
West Virginia 116 93 69 77 106 109 114 32 5 -72
Wisconsin 45 79 161 213 288 245 226 38 -8 -83
Wyoming 4 5 7 7 10 14 16 1 19 -93

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, 2001 TANF Report to Congress.

Table TANF 12. AFDC/TANF Recipiency Rates for Total Population by State Selected Fiscal Years 1965 – 2000 [In percent]

  1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989 1994 2000 Percent Change
1989-94 1994-00
United States 2.1 3.5 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 5.4 2.1 24 -61
Alabama 2.2 3.6 4.3 4.6 3.8 3.2 3.1 1.3 -3 -59
Alaska 1.8 2.6 3.1 3.7 3.0 3.5 6.3 3.8 78 -40
Arizona 2.6 2.9 3.1 1.9 2.3 2.9 4.8 1.7 66 -65
Arkansas 1.5 2.3 4.7 3.7 2.8 3.0 2.8 1.1 -5 -61
California 2.9 5.7 6.3 5.8 6.1 6.0 8.4 3.8 40 -54
Colorado 2.2 3.0 3.7 2.6 2.5 3.0 3.3 0.7 10 -80
Connecticut 2.1 2.7 4.1 4.5 3.8 3.2 5.1 1.9 57 -62
Delaware 2.4 3.6 5.4 5.4 3.9 2.9 3.9 1.6 33 -58
Dist. of Columbia 2.5 5.3 14.6 13.3 9.2 7.7 13.1 8.2 71 -37
Florida 1.8 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.6 4.8 1.0 85 -80
Georgia 1.6 4.3 7.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 5.6 1.6 35 -72
Hawaii 1.9 3.2 5.4 6.2 4.9 3.9 5.3 3.7 35 -31
Idaho 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.7 2.0 0.2 21 -91
Illinois 2.5 3.3 6.9 5.9 6.4 5.5 6.0 2.0 9 -66
Indiana 1.0 1.4 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.7 3.8 1.6 41 -57
Iowa 1.6 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.3 3.5 3.9 1.8 11 -53
Kansas 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.4 1.2 13 -65
Kentucky 2.5 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.2 5.4 2.2 28 -60
Louisiana 2.9 5.6 6.1 5.0 5.2 6.5 5.8 1.7 -11 -71
Maine 1.9 3.6 7.5 5.4 4.9 4.2 5.2 2.2 25 -58
Maryland 2.2 3.3 5.2 5.0 4.4 3.7 4.4 1.4 19 -69
Massachusetts 1.8 3.7 6.0 6.1 4.0 4.0 5.1 1.6 27 -69
Michigan 2.0 2.9 7.0 7.4 7.6 6.9 6.9 2.1 0 -70
Minnesota 1.4 2.0 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.8 4.1 2.3 9 -43
Mississippi 3.6 5.2 7.8 6.9 6.0 6.9 6.0 1.2 -14 -80
Missouri 2.4 3.0 5.4 4.0 3.9 4.0 5.0 2.2 25 -55
Montana 1.0 1.9 2.9 2.4 2.7 3.5 4.1 1.4 18 -65
Nebraska 1.1 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.8 1.4 7 -50
Nevada 1.2 2.4 2.3 1.5 1.4 1.8 2.6 0.8 48 -70
New Hampshire 0.7 1.2 3.1 2.4 1.4 1.2 2.7 1.1 133 -58
New Jersey 1.5 4.0 6.0 6.2 4.9 3.9 4.2 1.5 10 -63
New Mexico 3.0 5.0 5.3 4.1 3.5 3.9 6.2 4.0 59 -36
New York 2.9 5.8 6.7 6.3 6.2 5.4 6.9 3.8 27 -45
North Carolina 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.4 2.6 3.1 4.7 1.2 54 -74
North Dakota 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.4 2.6 1.4 9 -47
Ohio 1.8 2.5 5.0 4.8 6.3 5.8 6.2 2.2 6 -65
Oklahoma 3.0 3.7 3.5 2.9 2.5 3.3 4.0 1.0 24 -75
Oregon 1.6 3.6 4.3 3.9 2.8 3.1 3.7 1.2 18 -67
Pennsylvania 2.6 3.6 5.3 5.3 4.8 4.4 5.1 1.9 17 -62
Rhode Island 2.7 4.0 5.5 5.5 4.5 4.2 6.3 4.3 51 -32
South Carolina 1.2 2.0 4.6 4.9 3.6 3.1 3.8 0.9 23 -76
South Dakota 1.6 2.4 3.6 2.9 2.3 2.7 2.6 0.9 -3 -66
Tennessee 2.0 3.3 4.7 3.5 3.3 4.0 5.8 2.7 44 -54
Texas 0.9 1.9 3.1 2.1 2.2 3.2 4.3 1.6 34 -62
Utah 2.2 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.6 1.0 1 -62
Vermont 1.4 2.6 4.4 4.4 4.2 3.5 4.8 2.6 36 -45
Virginia 1.0 1.9 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.4 3.0 1.0 25 -66
Washington 2.4 3.2 4.0 3.7 4.0 4.6 5.5 2.6 18 -53
West Virginia 6.4 5.3 3.7 4.0 5.5 6.0 6.3 1.8 4 -72
Wisconsin 1.1 1.8 3.5 4.5 6.1 5.0 4.4 0.7 -12 -84
Wyoming 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.4 2.0 3.0 3.4 0.2 15 -93

Note: Recipiency rate refers to the average monthly number of AFDC recipients in each State during the given fiscal year expressed as a percent of the total resident population as of July 1 of that year. The numerators are from Table TANF 11.

Sources: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available on line at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).

Table TANF 13. Average Number of AFDC/TANF Child Recipients By State, Selected Fiscal Years 1965 – 2000 [In thousands]

  1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989 1994 2000 Percent Change
1989-94 1994-00
United States 3,242 5,483 7,952 7,320 7,165 7,370 9,611 4,385 30 -54
Alabama 62 96 119 129 105 92 96 43 4 -55
Alaska 4 6 9 10 10 13 24 15 90 -38
Arizona 31 39 54 38 50 74 136 63 85 -53
Arkansas 23 34 75 62 45 50 49 20 -0 -59
California 391 816 943 932 1,070 1,186 1,804 1,009 52 -44
Colorado 33 50 68 53 53 66 80 22 22 -73
Connecticut 43 62 92 97 82 71 111 47 56 -58
Delaware 9 15 23 22 16 13 19 10 41 -44
Dist. of Columbia 16 31 75 59 43 38 51 35 33 -32
Florida 85 160 200 184 191 235 463 120 97 -74
Georgia 54 150 261 161 166 187 274 101 47 -63
Guam 1 1 2 4 4 3 5 NA 63 NA
Hawaii 10 18 33 40 33 28 41 29 45 -29
Idaho 7 11 14 14 11 11 16 2 36 -88
Illinois 202 283 562 473 493 432 486 200 12 -59
Indiana 36 55 119 111 111 100 145 69 45 -53
Iowa 32 46 59 69 77 63 72 35 13 -51
Kansas 28 41 50 49 45 50 59 23 17 -61
Kentucky 58 93 113 118 107 105 137 63 31 -54
Louisiana 79 157 177 156 163 195 180 56 -8 -69
Maine 14 26 56 40 36 32 40 19 25 -52
Maryland 61 100 157 145 126 117 151 53 28 -65
Massachusetts 71 153 242 228 152 154 197 71 28 -64
Michigan 119 190 454 460 441 414 439 151 6 -65
Minnesota 39 58 89 91 95 105 124 81 18 -35
Mississippi 66 93 144 128 112 129 116 29 -10 -75
Missouri 82 106 193 135 129 134 176 88 31 -50
Montana 6 10 16 13 15 18 23 9 28 -62
Nebraska 12 23 28 25 29 28 31 18 10 -43
Nevada 4 9 10 8 9 14 27 11 89 -58
New Hampshire 3 7 18 15 9 8 19 9 130 -51
New Jersey 79 209 316 318 247 205 228 97 11 -57
New Mexico 23 39 45 35 34 41 66 47 64 -28
New York 380 759 862 759 729 648 813 493 26 -39
North Carolina 83 94 125 141 113 136 223 87 63 -61
North Dakota 6 8 10 9 8 10 11 5 6 -50
Ohio 136 198 373 348 424 411 455 180 11 -60
Oklahoma 55 71 74 65 57 71 90 28 27 -69
Oregon 23 52 67 65 49 58 76 30 30 -60
Pennsylvania 217 307 430 432 369 348 417 182 20 -56
Puerto Rico 161 166 170 118 116 126 124 65 -2 -47
Rhode Island 18 27 37 36 28 28 41 31 50 -25
South Carolina 24 40 100 109 84 77 102 29 33 -72
South Dakota 8 12 18 15 11 13 14 6 3 -59
Tennessee 58 99 150 115 105 133 203 100 53 -51
Texas 68 162 292 225 256 378 549 260 45 -53
Utah 16 23 23 24 24 28 33 16 17 -52
Vermont 4 8 14 14 14 12 17 10 39 -41
Virgin Islands 1 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 9 -4
Virginia 35 66 125 116 103 100 134 52 34 -61
Washington 50 76 95 97 113 141 187 105 32 -44
West Virginia 80 65 47 58 64 67 72 21 7 -70
Wisconsin 34 60 116 142 181 161 153 33 -5 -78
Wyoming 3 4 5 5 7 9 11 1 22 -91

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, 2001 TANF Report to Congress.

Table TANF 14. AFDC/TANF Recipiency Rates for Children by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1965 – 2000 [In percent]

  1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989 1994 2000 Percent Change
1989-94 1994-00
United States 4.4 7.6 11.6 11.3 11.2 11.4 14.0 5.9 22 -57
Alabama 4.6 7.7 9.9 11.1 9.7 8.6 8.9 3.9 4 -56
Alaska 3.1 5.0 6.2 8.0 5.9 7.3 12.8 7.5 76 -41
Arizona 4.8 6.0 7.2 4.8 5.9 7.6 12.1 4.4 60 -64
Arkansas 3.1 5.2 10.9 9.3 7.1 7.9 7.7 2.9 -3 -62
California 6.0 12.3 14.6 14.6 15.6 15.6 20.8 11.0 33 -47
Colorado 4.4 6.4 8.4 6.5 6.1 7.6 8.3 1.9 10 -77
Connecticut 4.4 6.1 9.8 11.8 10.8 9.5 14.2 5.5 49 -61
Delaware 4.7 7.5 12.3 13.4 10.2 8.1 10.5 5.5 30 -48
Dist. of Columbia 6.0 13.8 41.1 40.9 33.9 30.7 44.5 33.1 45 -26
Florida 4.3 7.6 8.4 7.8 7.6 8.4 14.1 3.2 68 -78
Georgia 3.2 9.1 15.5 9.8 10.1 10.8 14.6 4.7 35 -68
Hawaii 3.6 6.5 11.7 14.5 11.6 10.1 13.6 9.8 35 -27
Idaho 2.7 4.2 4.8 4.7 3.6 3.7 4.6 0.5 22 -89
Illinois 5.3 7.5 16.0 14.6 16.1 14.5 15.7 6.1 8 -61
Indiana 2.0 3.0 6.9 6.9 7.5 6.9 9.8 4.4 43 -55
Iowa 3.2 4.7 6.6 8.4 10.2 8.8 9.9 4.7 12 -52
Kansas 3.5 5.4 7.3 7.5 6.9 7.6 8.5 3.3 12 -62
Kentucky 4.9 8.3 10.2 10.9 10.5 10.9 14.1 6.4 29 -54
Louisiana 5.5 11.3 13.2 11.8 12.2 15.5 14.6 4.6 -6 -69
Maine 3.9 7.7 16.4 12.5 11.7 10.4 13.1 6.5 26 -50
Maryland 4.6 7.3 11.9 12.4 11.4 10.2 12.0 4.0 18 -67
Massachusetts 3.8 8.1 14.2 15.3 11.2 11.4 13.9 4.7 22 -66
Michigan 3.7 5.8 15.0 16.7 17.7 16.9 17.4 5.9 3 -66
Minnesota 2.9 4.2 7.0 7.7 8.5 9.2 10.1 6.2 10 -39
Mississippi 7.0 11.1 17.3 15.7 14.0 17.1 15.3 3.7 -10 -76
Missouri 5.2 6.9 13.2 9.9 9.8 10.2 12.9 6.1 26 -52
Montana 2.0 4.0 6.6 5.7 6.1 7.9 9.7 3.8 22 -61
Nebraska 2.3 4.4 5.8 5.5 6.8 6.5 7.0 3.9 8 -45
Nevada 2.5 5.2 5.4 3.8 3.9 5.0 7.1 2.0 40 -71
New Hampshire 1.4 2.6 6.9 5.8 3.7 3.1 6.6 3.0 118 -55
New Jersey 3.4 8.8 14.1 16.0 13.5 11.3 11.7 4.7 3 -60
New Mexico 5.2 9.5 10.9 8.5 7.8 9.0 13.5 9.2 50 -32
New York 6.3 13.0 16.3 16.2 16.7 15.1 18.0 10.6 19 -41
North Carolina 4.4 5.3 7.2 8.5 7.1 8.5 12.6 4.2 49 -67
North Dakota 2.3 3.6 4.9 4.7 4.3 5.7 6.3 3.3 12 -48
Ohio 3.6 5.3 10.9 11.2 14.7 14.6 16.0 6.3 9 -61
Oklahoma 6.4 8.5 8.7 7.6 6.3 8.3 10.4 3.0 24 -71
Oregon 3.3 7.4 9.6 9.0 6.9 8.2 9.7 3.5 18 -64
Pennsylvania 5.5 8.0 12.3 13.8 12.9 12.4 14.4 6.2 16 -57
Rhode Island 5.9 9.1 13.3 14.7 12.6 12.1 17.5 12.2 44 -30
South Carolina 2.3 4.2 10.4 11.6 9.1 8.3 10.8 2.9 30 -73
South Dakota 3.1 5.0 8.2 7.1 5.7 6.7 6.6 2.7 -1 -59
Tennessee 4.2 7.5 11.3 8.9 8.6 10.9 15.7 7.2 44 -54
Texas 1.7 4.1 7.1 5.2 5.4 7.9 10.4 4.4 32 -58
Utah 3.7 5.4 5.0 4.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 2.1 9 -57
Vermont 2.7 5.4 9.3 9.9 9.9 8.8 11.7 7.1 33 -39
Virginia 2.2 4.1 7.9 7.9 7.1 6.7 8.4 3.0 26 -64
Washington 4.7 6.5 8.5 8.5 9.7 11.5 13.3 6.9 16 -48
West Virginia 12.2 11.2 8.4 10.4 12.6 14.8 16.8 5.3 13 -68
Wisconsin 2.2 3.8 7.8 10.5 14.2 12.6 11.4 2.4 -9 -79
Wyoming 2.1 3.2 4.1 3.4 4.1 6.6 8.1 0.7 24 -91

Note: Recipiency rate refers to the average monthly number of AFDC child recipients in each State during the given fiscal year as a percent of the resident population under 18 years of age as of July 1 of that year. The numerators are from Table TANF 13.

Sources: U. S. Department of Health and Human Services and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available on line at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).


1States are allowed to use TANF funds on a variety of services, including employment and training services, domestic violence services, and child care, transportation, and other support services. Families receiving such services, however, should generally not be counted as recipients of TANF “assistance”. Under the final regulations for TANF, “assistance” includes primarily payments directed at ongoing basic needs. It includes payments when individuals are participating in community service and work experience (or other work activities) as a condition of receiving payments (e.g., workfare). In addition to cash assistance, the definition also includes certain child care and transportation benefits (provided the families are not employed). It excludes, however, such things as: non-recurrent, short-term benefits; services without a cash value, such as education and training, case management, job search, and counseling; and benefits such as child care and transportation when provided to employed families.

Food Stamp Program

The Food Stamp Program, administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Food and Nutrition Service, is the largest food assistance program in the country, reaching more poor individuals over the course of a year than any other public assistance program. Unlike many other public assistance programs, the Food Stamp Program has few categorical requirements for eligibility, such as the presence of children, elderly or disabled individuals in a household. As a result, the program offers assistance to a large and diverse population of needy persons, many of whom are not eligible for other forms of assistance.

The Food Stamp Program was designed primarily to increase the food purchasing power of eligible low-income households to the point where they can buy a nutritionally adequate low-cost diet. Participating households are expected to be able to devote 30 percent of their counted monthly cash income (after adjusting for various deductions) to food purchases. Food stamp benefits then make up the difference between the household’s expected contribution to its food costs and an amount judged to be sufficient to buy an adequate low-cost diet. This amount, the maximum food stamp benefit level, is derived from USDA’s lowest-cost food plan, the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP).

The Federal government is responsible for virtually all of the rules that govern the program, and, with limited variations, these rules are nationally uniform, as are the benefit levels. Nonetheless, States, the District of Columbia, Guam, and the Virgin Islands, through their local welfare offices, have primary responsibility for the day-to-day administration of the program. They determine eligibility, calculate benefits, and issue food stamp allotments. The Food Stamp Act provides 100 percent federal funding of food stamp benefits. States and other jurisdictions have responsibility for about half the cost of state and local food stamp agency administration.

In addition to the regular Food Stamp Program, the Food Stamp Act authorizes alternative programs in Puerto Rico, the Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa. The largest of these, the Nutrition Assistance Program in Puerto Rico, had an average of 1.1 million participants in 2000, funded under a federal block grant of $1.27 billion. Unless noted otherwise, the food stamp caseload and expenditure data in this Appendix include costs for the Nutrition Assistance Program in Puerto Rico. Prior to 1982, the regular Food Stamp Program operated in Puerto Rico, under modified eligibility and benefit rules.

The Food Stamp Program has financial, employment/training-related and “categorical” tests for eligibility. The basic food stamp beneficiary unit is the “household.” Generally, individuals living together constitute a single food stamp household if they customarily purchase food and prepare meals together. Members of the same household must apply together, and their income, expenses, and assets normally are aggregated in determining food stamp eligibility and benefits. Except for households composed entirely of TANF, SSI, or general assistance recipients (who generally are automatically eligible for food stamps), monthly cash income is the primary food stamp eligibility determinant. Unless exempt, adult applicants for food stamps must register for work, typically with the welfare agency or a state employment service office. To maintain eligibility, they must accept a suitable job if offered one and fulfill any work, job search, or training requirements established by the administering welfare agencies.

Food stamp benefits are a function of a household’s size, its net monthly income, its assets, and maximum monthly benefit levels. Allotments are not taxable and food stamp purchases may not be charged sales taxes. Receipt of food stamps does not affect eligibility for or benefits provided by other welfare programs, although some programs use food stamp participation as a “trigger” for eligibility and others take into account the general availability of food stamps in deciding what level of benefits to provide.

Recent Legislative and Regulatory Changes

Title IV and Subtitle A of title VIII of the PRWORA contain major and extensive revisions to the Food Stamp Program, including strong work requirements on able-bodied adults without dependent children, restricted benefits for legal immigrants, and a reduction in maximum benefits. These three provisions, and subsequent amendments, are discussed below; their impact on program participation and expenditures begins to appear in food stamp administrative data for 1997, with the fuller impact shown in data for 1998 and beyond.

First, a new work requirement was added for able-bodied adult food stamp recipients without dependents (ABAWDs). Unless exempt, ABAWDs between the ages of 18 and 50 are not eligible for benefits for more than 3 months in every 36-month period unless they are (1) working at least 20 hours a week; (2) participating in and complying with a work program for at least 20 hours a week; or (3) participating in and complying with a workfare program. Under the original legislation, the Department of Agriculture was authorized to waive application of the work requirement to any group of individuals at the request of the state agency, if a determination is made that the area where they reside has an unemployment rate over 10 percent or does not have a sufficient number of jobs to provide them employment. The provision was further moderated under the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 (Public Law 105-33), which allowed states to exempt up to 15 percent of the ABAWD caseload (beyond those subject to waivers) and which increased funds for the food stamp employment and training program for the creation of job slots for able-bodied adults subject to time limits.

Separately, title IV of PRWORA made significant changes in the eligibility of noncitizens for food stamp benefits. As first enacted, most qualified aliens, including legal immigrants (illegal aliens were already ineligible) were barred from receiving food stamps until citizenship. Subsequently, the Agriculture Research, Extension and Education Reform Act of 1998 (Public Law 105-185) restored food stamp eligibility to certain groups of qualified aliens who were legally residing in the United States before passage of PRWORA on August 22, 1996. Specifically, the ban on food stamp eligibility was lifted for children, the disabled and people who were 65 on August 22, 1996.

Finally, the 1996 legislation restrained growth in future program expenditures by making changes in the benefit structure for eligible participants, including a reduction in the maximum food stamp allotment. Other provisions of the 1996 act disqualified from eligibility those convicted of drug-related felonies and gave states the option to disqualify individuals, both custodial and noncustodial parents, from food stamps when they do not cooperate with child support agencies or are in arrears in their child support.

Recent regulatory and legislative changes have been made to increase access to food stamps among working poor families. Regulatory changes announced in July 1999 and expanded in November 2000 allow states to reduce reporting requirements and make it easier for working families to report income changes on a semiannual basis. Under the November 2000 regulations, states also have the option of providing a three-month transitional food stamp benefit to most families leaving TANF. In addition, the Agriculture Appropriations Bill for 2001 (P.L. 106-387) provides states with the option of liberalizing the treatment of vehicle assets to align with the states’ TANF rules on vehicle eligibility. These changes were intended to address concerns that some of the decline in food stamp caseloads may be leaving poor families without nutritional assistance as they make the transition from welfare dependence to full self-sufficiency.

Food Stamp Program Data

The following six tables and accompanying figure provide information about the Food Stamp Program, including information about the Nutrition Assistance Program in Puerto Rico:

  • Tables FSP 1-2 and Figure FSP 1 present national caseload and expenditure trend data on the Food Stamp Program, as discussed below;
  • Table FSP 3 presents some demographic characteristics of the food stamp caseload; and
  • Tables FSP 4-6 present some state-by-state trend data on the Food Stamp Program through fiscal year 2000.

Food Stamp Caseload Trends (Tables FSP 1-2). Average monthly food stamp participation (including participants in Puerto Rico’s block grant) has continued to fall from its peak of 28.9 million in an average month in 1994 to an average of 18.3 million persons in 2000. Both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the population, food stamp recipiency is lower than at any point in the past twenty years. See also Table IND 3b and Table IND 4b in Chapter II for further data on the recent decline in food stamp recipiency and participation rates.

Considerable research has demonstrated that the Food Stamp Program is responsive to economic changes, with participation increasing in times of economic downturns and decreasing in times of economic growth (see Figure FSP 1). Economic conditions alone did not explain the caseload growth in the late 1980s and early 1990s, however. A congressionally mandated study in 1990 concluded that a variety of factors contributed to this caseload growth, including expansions in Medicaid eligibility and changes in immigration laws, particularly the legalization of undocumented aliens, as well as a rise in unemployment (McConnell, 1991). Longer spells of participation also contributed to the caseload increase, according to an analysis of longitudinal data from the Survey on Income and Program Participation (Gleason, 1998).

Economic conditions were a significant factor in explaining the drop in food stamp caseload since 1994, according to an Economic Research Service review of recent research (ERS, 2000). Several econometric models suggest that economic variables explain between 25 and 44 percent of the decline in caseload. The full effect of the economy may be even higher, to the extent that some of the unexplained variation in the models reflects local economic conditions not captured in state-level economic variables.

Policy changes, most notably the enactment of the Personal Responsibility Act of 1996, have also contributed to the recent decline in food stamp caseload. The most direct impact was the elimination of eligibility for most legal immigrants and for many childless adults aged 18-50. Participation for these two groups fell sharply between 1994 and 1998 (Genser, 1999). In addition, changes in TANF policy may have affected food stamp participation, although these effects are less certain. Many studies of families leaving TANF cash assistance have found that many of these families leave the Food Stamp Program as well, despite appearing eligible for food stamp benefits. Econometric studies of the effects of specific changes in TANF policy, however, have found that only a small share of the decline in state food stamp caseloads was associated with waivers to AFDC policies. Increased stigma about welfare use and unintentional diversion from the Food Stamp Program may be additional factors affecting food stamp participation. Finally, a study of trends in Food Stamp Program participation rates (USDA, 2000) found that the program is reaching a smaller percentage of eligible individuals in 1998 than it did during the three previous years.

Food Stamp Expenditures. Total program costs, shown in Table FSP 2, have declined in recent years, along with the decline in caseloads. In fiscal year 2000, total program costs (including Puerto Rico) were $18.4 billion, reaching their lowest levels since 1980, after adjusting for inflation. (Average monthly participation in fiscal year 2000 was 18.3 million). Average monthly benefits per person have also declined in recent years after adjusting for inflation. Benefits were $73 per person in fiscal year 2000, considerably lower than the $85 per person benefit (in constant dollars) paid in 1992, but higher than the $70 per person paid in 1987.

Food Stamp Household Characteristics. As shown in Table FSP 3, the proportion of food stamp households with earnings has increased, from about 20 percent for most of the 1980s and early 1990s, to 27 percent in 2000. At the same time, the proportion of households with income from AFDC/TANF has declined, from 42 percent in 1984 to 26 percent in 2000, following the dramatic decline in AFDC/TANF caseloads. Over half of all food stamp households have children, although the proportion has declined somewhat from over 60 percent in most of the 1980s and early 1990s to 54 percent in 2000. The vast majority (89 percent) of households have incomes below the federal poverty guidelines.

Figure FSP 1. Persons Receiving Food Stamps

Figure FSP 1. Persons Receiving Food Stamps

Note: Shaded areas are periods of recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, National Data Bank.

Table FSP 1. Trends in Food Stamp Caseloads, Selected Years 1962 – 2000

Fiscal Year Food Stamp Participants1 Participants as a Percent of: Child Participants As a Percent of:
Including Territories2 (in thousands) Excluding Territories (in thousands) Children Excld. Terr. (in thousands) Total Population3 All Poor Persons3 Pre-transfer Poverty Population4 Total Child Population3 Children in Poverty3
1962 6,554 6,554 NA 3.5 17.0 NA NA NA
1965 5,166 5,166 NA 2.7 15.5 NA NA NA
1970 8,277 8,277 NA 4.1 32.6 NA NA NA
1971 13,042 13,042 NA 6.3 51.0 NA NA NA
1972 14,102 14,102 NA 6.7 57.7 NA NA NA
1973 14,641 14,641 NA 6.9 63.7 NA NA NA
1974 14,784 14,765 NA 6.9 63.2 NA NA NA
19755 18,308 17,217 NA 8.0 66.2 NA NA NA
1976 18,240 16,733 9,126 7.7 66.7 NA 13.8 88.8
1977 17,014 15,579 NA 7.1 62.7 NA NA NA
1978 15,988 14,503 NA 6.5 58.9 NA NA NA
19796 17,682 15,976 NA 7.1 60.9 57.1 NA NA
1980 21,082 19,253 9,876 8.5 65.5 60.7 15.5 85.6
1981 22,430 20,654 9,803 9.0 64.6 60.8 15.5 78.4
1982 22,055 20,392 9,591 8.8 59.0 56.3 15.3 70.3
1983 23,195 21,667 10,910 9.3 61.1 58.5 17.4 78.4
1984 22,384 20,796 10,492 8.8 61.7 58.5 16.8 78.2
1985 21,379 19,847 9,906 8.3 60.0 56.6 15.8 76.1
1986 20,909 19,381 9,844 8.1 59.9 56.2 15.7 76.5
1987 20,583 19,072 9,771 7.9 59.2 55.6 15.5 75.4
1988 20,095 18,613 9,351 7.6 58.6 55.2 14.8 75.1
1989 20,266 18,778 9,429 7.6 59.6 55.6 14.9 74.9
1990 21,547 20,038 10,127 8.0 59.7 55.7 15.8 75.4
1991 24,115 22,599 11,952 9.0 63.3 59.3 18.4 83.3
1992 26,886 25,369 13,349 9.9 66.7 64.0 20.2 87.3
1993 28,422 26,952 14,196 10.5 68.6 63.8 21.2 90.3
1994 28,879 27,434 14,391 10.5 72.1 66.8 21.2 94.1
1995 27,989 26,579 13,860 10.1 73.0 67.6 20.2 94.5
1996 26,872 25,494 13,189 9.6 69.8 64.6 19.1 91.2
1997 24,148 22,820 11,847 8.5 64.1 59.9 17.0 83.9
1998 20,970 19,746 10,524 7.3 57.3 53.8 15.1 78.1
1999 19,325 18,146 9,354 6.7 56.3 52.5 13.3 77.2
2000 18,267 17,120 8,765 6.1 55.0 51.7 12.1 75.3

1Total participants includes all participating states, the District of Columbia, and the territories (including Puerto Rico). The number of child participants includes only the participating states and D.C. (the territories are not included). From 1962 to 1983 the number of participants includes the Family Food Assistance Program (FFAP) which was largely replaced by the Food Stamp Program in 1975. The FFAP participants (as of December) for the seven years shown during the period from 1962 to 1974 were respectively: 6,411; 4,742; 3,977; 3,642; 3,002; 2,441; and 1,406 (all in thousands). From 1975 to 1983 the number of FFAP participants averaged only 88 thousand. The monthly average number of participants for 1970-76 is computed as an average from October of the prior calendar year to September, the span of the fiscal year since 1977.

2Participation figures in column 1 from 1982 on include enrollment in Puerto Rico’s Nutrition Assistance Program (averaging 1.1 to 1.5 million persons a month under the nutrition assistance grant and higher figures in earlier years under Food Stamps, as shown in Table FSP 5).

3Includes all participating states and the District of Columbia only — the territories are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Population numbers used as denominators are the resident population — see Current Population Reports, Series P25-1106. For the persons living in poverty used as denominators, see Current Population Reports, Series P60-210.

4The pretransfer poverty population used as denominator is the number of all persons in families or living alone whose income (cash income plus social insurance plus Social Security but before taxes and means-tested transfers) falls below the appropriate poverty threshold. See Appendix J, Table 20, 1992 Green Book; data for subsequent years are unpublished Congressional Budget Office tabulations.

5The first fiscal year in which food stamps were available nationwide.

6The fiscal year in which the food stamp purchase requirement was eliminated, on a phased-in basis.

Sources: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, National Data Bank, the 1996 Green Book, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 2000," Current Population Reports, Series P60-214 and earlier years.

Table FSP 2. Trends in Food Stamp Expenditures, Selected Years 1975 – 2000

Fiscal Year Total Federal Cost (Benefits + Administration)  Benefits2(Federal) 
[In millions]
Administration1 Total Program Cost
[In millions]
Average Monthly Benefit per Person
Current Dollars
[In millions]
2000 Dollars3
[In millions]
Federal
[In millions]
State & Local
[In millions]
Current Dollars 2000 Dollars3
1975 $5,037 $15,946 $4,798 $238 $180 $5,217 $21.50 $68.10
1976 5,641 16,718 5,276 365 275 5,934 23.50 69.60
1977 5,463 15,072 5,061 402 300 5,775 24.00 66.20
1978 5,546 14,354 5,112 434 325 5,883 25.70 66.50
19794 6,965 16,577 6,450 515 388 7,388 29.90 71.20
1980 9,224 19,736 8,721 503 375 9,633 34.20 73.20
1981 11,308 22,000 10,630 678 504 11,906 39.40 76.70
1982 11,117 20,209 10,408 709 557 11,697 39.00 70.90
1983 12,708 22,094 11,930 778 612 13,343 43.00 74.80
1984 12,446 20,755 11,475 9715 805 13,251 42.70 71.20
1985 12,573 20,239 11,530 1,043 871 13,444 45.00 72.40
1986 12,510 19,641 11,397 1,113 935 13,445 45.50 71.40
1987 12,512 19,102 11,317 1,195 996 13,508 45.80 69.90
1988 13,281 19,478 11,991 1,290 1,080 14,361 49.80 73.00
1989 13,904 19,460 12,572 1,332 1,101 15,005 51.80 72.50
1990 16,503 22,004 15,081 1,422 1,174 17,677 58.90 78.50
1991 19,790 25,118 18,274 1,516 1,247 21,037 63.90 81.10
1992 23,535 28,992 21,879 1,656 1,375 24,910 68.60 84.50
1993 24,733 29,576 23,017 1,716 1,572 26,305 68.00 81.30
1994 25,587 29,806 23,798 1,789 1,643 27,230 69.00 80.40
1995 25,776 29,220 23,859 1,917 1,748 27,524 71.30 80.80
1996 25,527 28,152 23,543 1,984 1,842 27,369 73.20 80.70
1997 22,750 24,430 20,692 2,058 1,904 24,654 71.30 76.60
1998 20,224 21,369 18,055 2,169 1,988 22,212 71.10 75.10
1999 19,045 19,747 16,945 2,100 1,874 22,919 72.20 74.90
2000 18,411 18,411 16,211 2,200 1,963 20,374 72.80 72.80

1Amounts include the federal share of state administrative and employment and training costs (including administrative costs of Puerto Rico's block grant) and certain direct federal administrative costs. They do not generally include approximately $60 million in food-stamp related federal administrative costs budgeted under a separate appropriation account (although estimates prior to 1989 do include estimates of food stamp related federal administrative expenses paid out of other Agriculture Department accounts). State and local costs are estimated based on the known federal shares and represent an estimate of all administrative expenses of participating states (including Puerto Rico).

2Benefit costs include the Food Stamp Program and Puerto Rico's nutritional assistance program and are based on unpublished data from the USDA, Food and Nutrition Service, National Data Bank (see Table FSP 4).

3Constant dollar adjustments to 2000 level were made using a CPI-U-X1 fiscal year average price index.

4The fiscal year in which the food stamp purchase requirement was eliminated, on a phased-in basis.

5Beginning 1984 USDA took over from DHHS the administrative cost of certifying public assistance households for food stamps.

Note: Total federal cost includes food stamps in Puerto Rico (1975-1981) and funding for Puerto Rico's nutrition assistance grant (1982-present). Average benefit figures, however, do not reflect the lower benefits in Puerto Rico under either the Food Stamp Program from 1975 to 1981 or its nutrition assistance program since 1982.

Source: USDA, Food and Nutrition Service unpublished data from the National Data Bank; and the 2000 Green Book.

Table FSP 3. Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, 1980 - 2000 [In percent]

  Year1
1980 1984 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2000
With Gross Monthly Income:
  • Below the Federal Poverty Levels.
87 93 92 92 92 90 91 90 89 89
  • Between the Poverty Levels and 130 Percent of the Poverty Levels.
10 6 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 10
  • Above 130 Percent of Poverty
2 1 * * * 1 1 1 1 1
With Earnings 19 19 20 19 21 21 23 26 27 27
With Public Assistance Income2 65 71 72 73 66 69 67 65 63 63
  • With AFDC/TANF Income.
NA 42 42 43 40 38 37 31 27 26
  • With SSI Income
18 18 20 19 19 23 24 28 30 32
With Children 60 61 61 61 62 61 60 58 56 54
  • And Female Heads of Household
NA 47 50 51 51 51 50 47 46 44
    • With No Spouse Present
NA NA 39 37 44 43 43 41 40 38
With Elderly Members3 23 22 19 18 15 16 16 18 20 21
  • With Elderly Female Heads of Household3
NA 16 14 11 9 11 NA NA NA NA
Average Household Size 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3

1Data were gathered in August in the years 1980-84 and during the summer in the years from 1986 to 1994. Reports from 1995 to the present are based on fiscal year averages.

2Public assistance income includes AFDC, SSI, and general assistance.

3Elderly members and heads of household include those of age 60 or older.

* Less than 0.5 percent.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Office of Analysis, Nutrition, and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households, Fiscal Year 2000 and earlier years.

Table FSP 4. Value of Food Stamps Issued by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1975 – 2000 [Millions of dollars]

State 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998 1999 2000
United States $4,798 $8,721 $11,530 $15,081 $23,859 $18,055 $16,945 $16,211
Alabama $108 $246 $318 $328 $441 $357 $346 $344
Alaska 7 27 25 25 50 50 49 46
Arizona 45 97 121 239 414 253 233 240
Arkansas 78 122 126 155 212 206 210 206
California 374 530 639 968 2,473 2,020 1,796 1,639
Colorado 48 71 94 156 217 157 145 127
Connecticut 38 59 62 72 169 161 150 138
Delaware 8 21 22 25 47 34 32 31
Dist. of Columbia 32 41 40 43 92 85 82 77
Florida 236 421 368 609 1,307 845 813 773
Georgia 144 264 290 382 700 538 514 489
Guam 3 15 18 15 24 34 31 36
Hawaii 26 60 93 81 177 178 180 166
Idaho 12 29 36 40 59 47 45 46
Illinois 259 394 713 835 1,056 844 767 777
Indiana 64 154 242 226 382 263 255 268
Iowa 29 54 107 109 142 109 103 100
Kansas 13 38 64 96 144 83 80 83
Kentucky 138 211 332 334 413 345 337 337
Louisiana 149 243 365 549 629 467 463 448
Maine 36 60 62 63 112 100 89 81
Maryland 79 140 171 203 365 282 237 199
Massachusetts 104 171 173 207 315 222 205 182
Michigan 132 263 541 663 806 588 515 457
Minnesota 43 62 105 165 240 181 172 165
Mississippi 115 199 264 352 383 254 232 226
Missouri 85 142 212 312 488 345 348 358
Montana 11 18 31 41 57 52 52 51
Nebraska 12 25 44 59 77 68 66 61
Nevada 11 15 22 41 91 63 56 57
New Hampshire 14 22 15 20 44 30 31 28
New Jersey 136 226 260 289 506 384 346 304
New Mexico 49 81 88 117 196 144 144 140
New York 233 726 938 1,086 2,065 1,505 1,464 1,361
North Carolina 139 234 237 282 495 421 435 403
North Dakota 5 9 16 25 32 25 26 25
Ohio 268 382 697 861 1,017 613 535 520
Oklahoma 40 73 134 186 315 231 221 208
Oregon 58 80 142 168 254 198 190 198
Pennsylvania 190 373 547 661 1,006 764 704 656
Puerto Rico 366 828 786 894 1,095 1,166 1,190 1,226
Rhode Island 19 31 35 42 82 57 61 59
South Carolina 126 181 194 240 297 264 251 249
South Dakota 8 18 26 35 40 37 37 37
Tennessee 126 282 280 372 554 437 425 415
Texas 319 514 701 1,429 2,246 1,425 1,255 1,215
Utah 13 22 40 71 90 75 73 68
Vermont 10 18 20 22 46 34 34 32
Virgin Islands 9 19 23 18 28 22 22 21
Virginia 70 158 189 247 450 307 282 263
Washington 71 90 140 229 417 308 260 241
West Virginia 57 87 159 192 253 224 208 185
Wisconsin 33 68 148 180 220 130 124 129
Wyoming 3 6 15 21 28 21 19 19

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, unpublished data from the Food Stamp National Data Bank.

Table FSP 5. Average Number of Food Stamp Recipients by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 – 2000 [In thousands]

State

  Percent Change
1977 1981 1985 1989 1994 1996 1998 2000 1989-94 1994-00
United States 17,014 22,430 21,379 20,266 28,879 26,872 20,970 18,267 42 -33
Alabama 316 605 588 436 545 509 427 396 25 -27
Alaska 11 32 22 26 46 46 42 38 76 -18
Arizona 140 210 206 264 512 427 296 259 94 -49
Arkansas 213 305 253 227 283 274 256 247 24 -13
California 1,345 1,605 1,615 1,776 3,155 3,143 2,259 1,832 78 -42
Colorado 147 175 170 211 268 244 191 156 27 -42
Connecticut 178 175 145 114 223 223 196 165 96 -26
Delaware 26 56 40 30 59 58 46 32 99 -46
Dist. of Columbia 98 101 72 58 91 93 85 81 55 -11
Florida 728 957 630 668 1,474 1,371 991 882 121 -40
Georgia 459 654 567 485 830 793 632 559 71 -33
Guam 22 25 20 13 15 18 25 22 21 46
Hawaii 108 104 99 78 115 130 122 118 47 3
Idaho 33 64 59 61 82 80 62 58 34 -29
Illinois 922 984 1,110 990 1,189 1,105 923 779 20 -34
Indiana 196 405 406 285 518 390 313 300 82 -42
Iowa 108 163 203 168 196 177 141 123 16 -37
Kansas 62 108 119 128 192 172 119 117 50 -39
Kentucky 394 519 560 447 522 486 412 403 17 -23
Louisiana 425 574 644 725 756 670 537 500 4 -34
Maine 101 140 114 84 136 131 115 102 61 -25
Maryland 255 346 287 249 390 375 323 219 57 -44
Massachusetts 579 437 337 314 442 374 293 232 40 -48
Michigan 635 942 985 874 1,031 935 772 603 18 -42
Minnesota 158 202 228 245 318 295 220 196 30 -38
Mississippi 333 514 495 493 511 457 329 276 4 -46
Missouri 221 378 362 404 593 554 411 423 47 -29
Montana 27 47 58 56 71 71 62 59 28 -17
Nebraska 40 75 94 92 111 102 95 82 20 -26
Nevada 18 37 32 41 97 97 72 61 134 -37
New Hampshire 44 54 28 22 62 53 40 36 182 -41
New Jersey 493 608 464 353 545 540 425 345 54 -37
New Mexico 118 183 157 151 244 235 175 169 62 -31
New York 1,646 1,851 1,834 1,463 2,154 2,099 1,627 1,439 47 -33
North Carolina 428 605 474 390 630 631 528 488 61 -22
North Dakota 15 29 33 39 45 40 34 32 17 -30
Ohio 803 976 1,133 1,068 1,245 1,045 734 610 17 -51
Oklahoma 158 206 263 261 376 354 288 253 44 -33
Oregon 153 232 228 213 286 288 238 234 34 -18
Pennsylvania 843 1,071 1,032 916 1,208 1,124 907 777 32 -36
Puerto Rico 1,472 1,805 1,480 1,460 1,410 1,330 1,181 1,109 -3 -21
Rhode Island 79 88 69 57 94 91 72 74 65 -21
South Carolina 280 443 373 272 385 358 333 295 42 -23
South Dakota 26 46 48 50 53 49 45 43 6 -20
Tennessee 392 677 518 500 735 638 538 496 47 -32
Texas 823 1,226 1,263 1,634 2,726 2,372 1,636 1,333 67 -51
Utah 36 65 75 95 128 110 92 82 34 -36
Vermont 46 48 44 34 65 56 46 41 90 -37
Virgin Islands 25 34 32 16 20 31 17 16 23 -21
Virginia 240 432 360 333 547 538 397 336 65 -39
Washington 212 271 281 321 468 478 364 295 46 -37
West Virginia 199 252 278 259 321 300 269 227 24 -29
Wisconsin 175 269 363 291 330 283 193 193 13 -41
Wyoming 9 15 27 27 34 33 25 22 25 -34

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, unpublished data from the National Data Bank.

Table FSP 6. Food Stamp Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years 1977 – 2000 [In percent]

State

  Percent Change
1977 1981 1985 1989 1994 1996 1998 2000 1989-94 1994-00
United States 7.1 9.0 8.3 7.6 10.5 9.6 7.3 6.1 39 -42
Alabama 8.4 15.4 14.8 10.8 12.9 11.9 9.8 8.9 19 -31
Alaska 2.7 7.7 4.1 4.8 7.6 7.6 6.9 6.0 60 -22
Arizona 5.8 7.5 6.5 7.3 12.3 9.6 6.3 5.0 69 -59
Arkansas 9.7 13.3 10.9 9.7 11.5 10.9 10.1 9.2 19 -20
California 6.0 6.6 6.1 6.1 10.1 9.9 6.9 5.4 66 -47
Colorado 5.5 5.9 5.3 6.5 7.3 6.4 4.8 3.6 14 -51
Connecticut 5.8 5.6 4.5 3.5 6.8 6.8 6.0 4.8 97 -29
Delaware 4.5 9.3 6.5 4.5 8.4 8.0 6.1 4.1 85 -51
Dist. of Columbia 14.5 15.9 11.4 9.4 16.0 17.2 16.4 14.1 71 -12
Florida 8.2 9.4 5.5 5.3 10.6 9.5 6.6 5.5 100 -48
Georgia 8.8 11.7 9.5 7.6 11.8 10.8 8.3 6.8 56 -42
Hawaii 11.8 10.6 9.5 7.1 9.8 11.0 10.3 9.7 37 -0
Idaho 3.8 6.7 5.9 6.1 7.2 6.7 5.1 4.5 17 -38
Illinois 8.1 8.6 9.7 8.7 10.1 9.3 7.6 6.3 16 -38
Indiana 3.6 7.4 7.4 5.2 9.0 6.7 5.3 4.9 75 -45
Iowa 3.7 5.6 7.2 6.1 6.9 6.2 4.9 4.2 14 -39
Kansas 2.7 4.5 4.9 5.2 7.5 6.6 4.5 4.3 44 -42
Kentucky 11.0 14.2 15.2 12.1 13.7 12.3 10.5 10.0 13 -27
Louisiana 10.6 13.4 14.6 17.0 17.6 15.4 12.3 11.2 3 -36
Maine 9.2 12.4 9.8 6.9 11.0 10.6 9.2 8.0 59 -27
Maryland 6.1 8.1 6.5 5.3 7.8 7.4 6.3 4.1 49 -47
Massachusetts 10.1 7.6 5.7 5.2 7.3 6.1 4.8 3.6 40 -50
Michigan 6.9 10.2 10.8 9.4 10.8 9.6 7.9 6.1 14 -44
Minnesota 4.0 4.9 5.5 5.7 7.0 6.3 4.6 4.0 23 -43
Mississippi 13.5 20.3 19.1 19.1 19.2 16.9 12.0 9.7 0 -49
Missouri 4.5 7.7 7.2 7.9 11.2 10.3 7.6 7.6 42 -33
Montana 3.6 5.9 7.1 7.0 8.3 8.1 7.1 6.6 20 -21
Nebraska 2.6 4.7 5.9 5.9 6.8 6.2 5.7 4.8 17 -30
Nevada 2.7 4.4 3.4 3.6 6.6 6.0 4.1 3.0 83 -55
New Hampshire 5.1 5.8 2.8 2.0 5.4 4.6 3.3 2.9 174 -46
New Jersey 6.7 8.2 6.1 4.6 6.9 6.8 5.2 4.1 51 -41
New Mexico 9.7 13.7 10.9 10.0 14.7 13.8 10.1 9.3 47 -37
New York 9.2 10.5 10.3 8.1 11.9 11.6 9.0 7.6 46 -36
North Carolina 7.5 10.2 7.6 5.9 8.9 8.6 7.0 6.0 50 -32
North Dakota 2.4 4.4 4.9 6.0 7.1 6.2 5.3 5.0 19 -30
Ohio 7.5 9.1 10.6 9.9 11.2 9.4 6.5 5.4 14 -52
Oklahoma 5.5 6.7 8.0 8.3 11.6 10.7 8.6 7.3 40 -37
Oregon 6.3 8.7 8.5 7.6 9.3 9.0 7.3 6.8 21 -26
Pennsylvania 7.1 9.0 8.8 7.7 10.0 9.3 7.6 6.3 30 -37
Rhode Island 8.3 9.3 7.2 5.7 9.4 9.2 7.3 7.1 66 -25
South Carolina 9.4 13.9 11.3 7.9 10.5 9.6 8.7 7.3 34 -30
South Dakota 3.8 6.6 6.9 7.2 7.3 6.6 6.2 5.7 2 -23
Tennessee 8.9 14.6 11.0 10.3 14.2 12.0 9.9 8.7 38 -39
Texas 6.2 8.3 7.8 9.7 14.8 12.5 8.3 6.4 53 -57
Utah 2.7 4.3 4.6 5.6 6.6 5.4 4.4 3.7 19 -45
Vermont 9.4 9.4 8.2 6.1 11.1 9.6 7.7 6.7 83 -40
Virginia 4.6 7.9 6.3 5.4 8.4 8.1 5.8 4.7 54 -43
Washington 5.6 6.4 6.4 6.8 8.8 8.6 6.4 5.0 30 -43
West Virginia 10.4 12.9 14.6 14.3 17.7 16.5 14.9 12.6 23 -29
Wisconsin 3.8 5.7 7.6 6.0 6.5 5.5 3.7 3.6 8 -44
Wyoming 2.1 3.0 5.4 6.0 7.2 6.9 5.3 4.5 20 -37

Note: Recipiency rate refers to the average monthly number of food stamp recipients in each state during the particular fiscal year expressed as a percent of the total resident population as of July 1 of that year. The numerator is from Table A-18.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, unpublished data from the National Data Bank and U.S. Bureau of the Census (resident population by state available online at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).

Supplemental Security Income

The Supplemental Security Income (SSI) Program is a means tested, federally administered income assistance program authorized by title XVI of the Social Security Act. Established in 1972 (Public Law 92-603) and begun in 1974, SSI provides monthly cash payments in accordance with uniform, nationwide eligibility requirements to needy aged, blind and disabled persons. To qualify for SSI payments, a person must satisfy the program criteria for age, blindness or disability. Children may qualify for SSI if they are under age 18, unmarried, and meet the applicable SSI disability or blindness, income and resource requirements. Individuals and married couples are eligible for SSI if their countable incomes fall below the Federal maximum monthly SSI benefit levels, which were $532 for an individual and $789 for a married couple in fiscal year 2000. SSI eligibility is restricted to qualified persons who have countable resources/assets of not more than $2,000, or $3,000 for a couple.

SSI law requires that SSI applicants file for all other money benefits for which they may be entitled. Since its inception, SSI has been viewed as the “program of last resort” — after evaluating all other income, SSI pays what is necessary to bring an individual to the statutorily prescribed income “floor.” (The Social Security Administration, which administers the SSI program, works with recipients and helps them get any other benefits for which they are eligible.) As of December 2000, 36 percent of all SSI recipients also received Social Security benefits; Social Security benefits are the single highest source of income for SSI recipients.

No individual could receive both SSI payments and AFDC benefits; if eligible for both, the individual was required to choose which benefit to receive. Generally, the AFDC agency encouraged individuals to file for SSI and, once the SSI payments had started, the individual was removed from the AFDC filing unit. The PRWORA does not specifically prohibit an individual’s receipt of both TANF benefits and SSI; states have complete authority to set TANF eligibility standards and benefit levels.

With the exception of California, which converted food stamp benefits to cash that is included in the State supplementary payment, SSI recipients may be eligible to receive food stamps. If all household members receive SSI, they do not need to meet the Food Stamp Program financial eligibility standards to participate in the program because they are categorically eligible. If SSI beneficiaries live in households where other household members do not receive SSI benefits, the household must meet the net income eligibility standard of the Food Stamp Program to be eligible for food stamp benefits.

Recent Legislative Changes

Several legislative changes made in the 104th Congress are likely to affect Supplemental Security Income (SSI) participation and expenditures. Public Law 104-121, the Contract with America Advancement Act of 1996, prohibits SSI eligibility to individuals whose drug addiction and/or alcoholism (DAA) is a contributing factor material to the finding of disability. This provision applied to individuals who filed for benefits on or after the date of enactment (March 29, 1996) and to individuals whose claims were finally adjudicated on or after the date of enactment. It applied to current beneficiaries on January 1, 1997.

The PRWORA made several changes designed to maintain the SSI program’s goal of providing benefits for severely disabled children while preventing children without serious impairments from receiving benefits. First, the act replaced the former law “comparable severity” test with a new definition of childhood disability based on a medically determinable physical or mental impairment. Second, it discontinued use of the Individualized Functional Assessment (IFA) which authorized subjective judgment to determine children’s eligibility for SSI. Third, it eliminated references to “maladaptive behavior” in the Listings of Impairments (among medical criteria for evaluation of mental and emotional disorders in the domain of personal/behavioral function). The latter two provisions were effective for all new and pending applications upon enactment (August 22, 1996). Current beneficiaries receiving benefits due to an IFA or maladaptive behavior listing received notice no later than January 1, 1997, that their benefits might end when their case is redetermined. All those currently receiving benefits are subject to redetermination using the new eligibility criteria by February 28, 1998 (per P.L. 105-33, enacted August 5, 1997).

Title IV of PRWORA also made significant changes in the eligibility of noncitizens for SSI benefits. Essentially, qualified aliens (including legal immigrants) are barred from SSI. Some of the restrictions were subsequently moderated, most notably by the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 (Public Law 105-33), which grandfathered immigrants who were receiving SSI at the time of enactment of the PRWORA.

Several provisions aimed at reducing SSI fraud and improving recovery of overpayments were enacted in 1999, as part of the Foster Care Independence Act of 1999 (P. L. 106-169). Other legislation enacted in 1999 provides additional work incentives for disabled beneficiaries of SSI.

SSI Program Data

The following set of tables and figures provide SSI program data:

  • Tables SSI-1 through SSI-5 present national caseload and expenditure trend data on the SSI program;
  • Table SSI-6 presents demographic characteristics of the SSI caseload; and
  • Tables SSI 7-9 present state-by-state trend data on the SSI program through fiscal year 2000.

From 1990 to 1995, the program increased from 4.8 million beneficiaries to 6.5 million beneficiaries, an average growth rate of over 6 percent per year. Since 1995, the number of beneficiaries has stabilized, fluctuating between 6.5 and 6.6 million persons. In December 2000, there were nearly 6.6 million beneficiaries. Table SSI 1 presents information on the number of persons receiving SSI payments in December of each year from 1974 through 2000. In addition to data on the total number of SSI recipients, Table SSI 1 also shows recipients by eligibility category (aged, blind and disabled) and by type of recipient (child, adult age 18-64, and adult age 65 or older). See also Table IND 9a and Table IND 9b in Chapter II for further data on trends in recipiency and participation rates.

The composition of the SSI caseload has been shifting over time, as shown in Table SSI 1. The number of beneficiaries eligible because of age has been declining steadily, from a high of 2.3 million persons in December 1975 to 1.3 million persons in December 2000. At the same time there has been a strong growth in disabled beneficiaries, from 1.7 million in December 1974 to 5.3 million in December 2000. Moreover, the number of disabled children has increased dramatically, particularly during the 1990s, when the number of disabled children receiving SSI increased from 340,000 in December 1990 to 955,000 in December 1996. The number of disabled children fell in the next three years, and appeared to stabilize at 847,000 in 1999 and 2000. 1

Several factors have contributed to the growth of the Supplemental Security Income program. Expansions in disability eligibility (particularly for mentally impaired adults and for children), increased outreach, overall growth in immigration, and transfers from state programs were among the key factors identified in a 1995 study by the General Accounting Office (GAO). GAO concluded that three groups – adults with mental impairments, children, and non-citizens – accounted for nearly 90 percent of the SSI program’s growth in the early 1990s. The growth in disabled children beneficiaries is generally believed to be due to outreach activities, the Supreme Court decision in the Zebley case2, expansion of the medical impairment category, and reduction in reviews of continuing eligibility.

To counteract this rapid growth, Congress enacted changes to the SSI program in 1996, as part of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), tightening eligibility requirements for disabled children applying to the program and reviewing eligibility of those already receiving SSI.

Figure SSI 1. SSI Recipients by Age, 1974 – 2000

Figure SSI 1. SSI Recipients by Age, 1974 – 2000

Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, (Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html).

Table SSI 1. Number of Persons Receiving Federally Administered SSI Payments 1974 – 2000 [In thousands]

Date Total Eligibility Category Type of Recipient
Aged Blind and Disabled Children Adults
Total Blind Disabled Age 18-64 65 or Older
Dec 1974 3,996 2,286 1,710 75 1,636 711 1,503 2,422
Dec 1975 4,314 2,307 2,007 74 1,933 107 1,699 2,508
Dec 1976 4,236 2,148 2,088 76 2,012 125 1,714 2,397
Dec 1977 4,238 2,051 2,187 77 2,109 147 1,738 2,353
Dec 1978 4,217 1,968 2,249 77 2,172 166 1,747 2,304
Dec 1979 4,150 1,872 2,278 77 2,201 177 1,727 2,246
Dec 1980 4,142 1,808 2,334 78 2,256 190 1,731 2,221
Dec 1981 4,019 1,678 2,341 79 2,262 195 1,703 2,121
Dec 1982 3,858 1,549 2,309 77 2,231 192 1,655 2,011
Dec 1983 3,901 1,515 2,386 79 2,307 198 1,700 2,003
Dec 1984 4,029 1,530 2,499 81 2,419 212 1,780 2,037
Dec 1985 4,138 1,504 2,634 82 2,551 227 1,879 2,031
Dec 1986 4,269 1,473 2,796 83 2,713 241 2,010 2,018
Dec 1987 4,385 1,455 2,930 83 2,846 251 2,119 2,015
Dec 1988 4,464 1,433 3,030 83 2,948 255 2,203 2,006
Dec 1989 4,593 1,439 3,154 83 3,071 265 2,302 2,026
Dec 1990 4,817 1,454 3,363 84 3,279 309 2,450 2,059
Dec 1991 5,118 1,465 3,654 85 3,569 397 2,642 2,080
Dec 1992 5,566 1,471 4,095 85 4,010 556 2,910 2,100
Dec 1993 5,984 1,475 4,509 85 4,424 723 3,148 2,113
Dec 1994 6,296 1,466 4,830 85 4,745 841 3,335 2,119
Dec 1995 6,514 1,446 5,068 84 4,984 917 3,482 2,115
Dec 1996 6,614 1,413 5,201 82 5,119 955 3,568 2,090
Dec 1997 6,495 1,362 5,133 81 5,052 880 3,562 2,054
Dec 1998 6,566 1,332 5,234 80 5,154 887 3,646 2,033
Dec 1999 6,557 1,308 5,249 79 5,169 847 3,691 2,019
Dec 2000 6,602 1,289 5,312 79 5,234 847 3,744 2,011

1Includes students 18-21 in 1974 only.

Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin · Annual Statistical Supplement · 2001, (Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics).

Table SSI 2. SSI Recipiency Rates, 1974 – 2000 [In percentages]

Date  All Recipients as a Percent of Total Population1 Adults 18-64 as a Percent of 18-64 Population1 Child Recipients as a Percent of All Children1 Elderly Recipients (Persons 65 & Older) as a Percent of
All Persons 65 & Older1 All Elderly Poor2 Pretransfer Elderly Poor3
Dec 1974 1.9 1.2 0.1 10.8 78.5 NA
Dec 1975 2.0 1.3 0.2 10.9 75.6 NA
Dec 1976 1.9 1.3 0.2 10.2 72.4 NA
Dec 1977 1.9 1.3 0.2 9.7 74.1 NA
Dec 1978 1.9 1.3 0.3 9.3 71.5 NA
Dec 1979 1.8 1.3 0.3 8.8 61.3 66.8
Dec 1980 1.8 1.2 0.3 8.6 57.5 64.7
Dec 1981 1.7 1.2 0.3 8.0 55.0 63.3
Dec 1982 1.7 1.2 0.3 7.4 53.6 62.3
Dec 1983 1.7 1.2 0.3 7.3 55.2 61.9
Dec 1984 1.7 1.2 0.3 7.2 61.2 66.3
Dec 1985 1.7 1.3 0.4 7.1 58.7 64.5
Dec 1986 1.8 1.3 0.4 6.9 57.9 63.4
Dec 1987 1.8 1.4 0.4 6.7 56.5 64.7
Dec 1988 1.8 1.5 0.4 6.6 57.6 64.3
Dec 1989 1.9 1.5 0.4 6.5 60.3 64.6
Dec 1990 1.9 1.6 0.5 6.5 56.3 63.3
Dec 1991 2.0 1.7 0.6 6.5 55.0 61.1
Dec 1992 2.2 1.9 0.8 6.5 53.5 59.8
Dec 1993 2.3 2.0 1.1 6.4 56.3 63.3
Dec 1994 2.4 2.1 1.2 6.4 57.9 65.6
Dec 1995 2.5 2.2 1.3 6.4 63.7 71.4
Dec 1996 2.5 2.2 1.4 6.2 61.0 69.3
Dec 1997 2.4 2.2 1.3 6.0 60.8 69.1
Dec 1998 2.4 2.2 1.3 5.9 60.0 69.1
Dec 1999 2.4 2.2 1.2 5.8 63.7 72.4
Dec 2000 2.3 2.1 1.2 5.7 59.8 66.9

1Population numbers used for the denominators are Census resident population estimates adjusted to the December date by averaging the July 1 population of the current year with the July 1 population of the following year; see Current Population Reports, Series P25-1106 and Resident Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex, April 1, 1990 to July 1, 2000, Internet release date January 2, 2001 and the 2000 Decennial Census (Available online at http://www.census.gov).

2For the number of persons (65 years of age and older living in poverty) used as the denominator, see Current Population Reports, Series P60-214.

3The pretransfer poverty population used as the denominator is the number of all elderly persons living in elderly-only units whose income (cash income plus social insurance plus Social Security but before taxes and means-tested transfers) falls below the appropriate poverty threshold. See Appendix J, Table 20, 1992 Green Book; data for subsequent years are unpublished Congressional Budget Office tabulations.

Notes: Numerators for these ratios are from Table SSI 1. Rates computed by DHHS.

Source: 1994 Green Book and U.S. Bureau of the Census, “Poverty in the United States: 2000," Current Population Reports, Series P60-214, and earlier years, (Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty.html).

Table SSI 3. Total, Federal, and State SSI Benefits and Administration, 1974 – 20001 [In millions of dollars]

Calendar Year Total Benefits Federal Payments State Supplementation
20002Dollars Current Dollars Total Federally Administered State Administered  Administrative Costs
(fiscal year)
1974 $17,405 $5,246 $3,833 $1,413 $1,264 $149 $285
1975 18,011 5,878 4,314 1,565 1,403 162 399
1976 17,585 6,066 4,512 1,554 1,388 166 500
1977 17,182 6,306 4,703 1,603 1,431 172 526
1978 16,715 6,552 4,881 1,671 1,491 180 539
1979 16,464 7,075 5,279 1,797 1,590 207 610
1980 16,615 7,941 5,866 2,074 1,848 226 668
1981 16,423 8,593 6,518 2,076 1,839 237 718
1982 16,177 8,981 6,907 2,074 1,798 276 779
1983 16,259 9,404 7,423 1,982 1,711 270 830
1984 17,190 10,372 8,281 2,091 1,792 299 864
1985 17,701 11,060 8,777 2,283 1,973 311 953
1986 18,981 12,081 9,498 2,583 2,243 340 1,022
1987 19,632 12,951 10,029 2,922 2,563 359 976
1988 20,067 13,786 10,734 3,052 2,671 381 975
1989 20,803 14,980 11,606 3,374 2,955 419 1,051
1990 21,869 16,599 12,894 3,705 3,239 466 1,075
1991 23,421 18,524 14,765 3,759 3,231 529 1,257
1992 27,288 22,233 18,247 3,986 3,435 550 1,538
1993 29,264 24,557 20,722 3,835 3,270 566 1,467
1994 30,067 25,877 22,175 3,701 3,116 585 1,775
1995 31,217 27,628 23,919 3,708 3,118 590 1,973
1996 31,600 28,792 25,265 3,527 2,988 539 1,949
1997 31,170 29,052 25,457 3,595 2,913 682 2,055
1998 31,922 30,216 26,405 3,812 3,003 808 2,304
1999 31,962 30,923 26,805 4,154 3,301 853 2,493
2000 31,564 31,564 27,290 4,274 3,381 893 2,401

1Payments and adjustments during the respective year but not necessarily accrued for that year.

2Data adjusted for inflation by ASPE using the CPI-U-X1 for calendar years.

Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin · Annual Statistical Supplement · 2001, (Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics).

Table SSI 4. Average Monthly SSI Benefit Payments, 1974 – 2000

Calendar Year Total1 Federal Payments State Supplementation
2000 Dollars Current Dollars Total Federally Administered State Administered
1974 $475 $135 $108 $64 $71 $35
1975 338 112 92 66 69 45
1980 321 158 133 89 91 76
1984 349 211 187 93 93 93
1985 349 219 193 99 99 102
1986 365 232 202 107 108 101
1987 365 242 208 117 118 110
1988 365 253 219 118 118 118
1989 369 267 230 126 126 127
1990 368 283 244 132 131 136
1991 375 297 260 125 122 143
1992 402 328 292 124 121 147
1993 403 337 306 112 107 150
1994 393 338 310 105 99 152
1995 397 350 322 110 103 164
1996 394 359 333 108 103 145
1997 398 369 342 99 102 86
1998 402 379 350 103 104 102
1999 402 388 356 111 113 105
2000 393 393 360 113 114 109

1Total is a weighted average of the Federal plus State average benefit, the Federal-only average benefit, and State- only average benefit.

Note: The numerators for these averages are given in Table SSI 3 and the denominators are given in Table SSI 5. Averages were computed by DHHS. Data adjusted for inflation using the monthly values of the CPI-U-X1 index.

Source: Number of persons receiving payments obtained from Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin · Annual Statistical Supplement · 2001. 

Table SSI 5. Number of Persons Receiving SSI Payments by Type of Payment, 1974 – 2000 (in thousands)

Date Total Federal State Supplementation
Total Federally Administered State Administered
Jan 1974 3,249 2,956 1,839 1,480 358
Dec 1975 4,360 3,893 1,987 1,684 303
Dec 1980 4,194 3,682 1,934 1,685 249
Dec 1984 4,094 3,699 1,875 1,607 268
Dec 1985 4,200 3,799 1,916 1,661 255
Dec 1986 4,347 3,922 2,003 1,723 279
Dec 1987 4,458 4,019 2,079 1,807 272
Dec 1988 4,541 4,089 2,155 1,885 270
Dec 1989 4,673 4,206 2,224 1,950 275
Dec 1990 4,888 4,412 2,344 2,058 286
Dec 1991 5,200 4,730 2,512 2,204 308
Dec 1992 5,647 5,202 2,684 2,372 313
Dec 1993 6,065 5,636 2,850 2,536 314
Dec 1994 6,377 5,965 2,950 2,628 322
Dec 1995 6,576 6,194 2,817 2,518 300
Dec 1996 6,677 6,326 2,732 2,421 310
Dec 1997 6,565 6,212 3,029 2,372 657
Dec 1998 6,649 6,289 3,072 2,412 661
Dec 1999 6,641 6,275 3,116 2,441 675
Dec 2000 6,685 6,320 3,164 2,481 683

Source: Number of persons receiving payments obtained from Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin · Annual Statistical Supplement · 2001.

Table SSI 6. Characteristics of SSI Recipients, by Age, Sex, Earnings/Income, and Citizenship: Selected Years, 1980-2000

  1980 1985 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Total
Ages 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
  • under 18
5.5 5.5 6.4 10.0 13.4 14.4 13.5 12.8
  • 18-64
40.9 45.4 50.9 52.3 53.0 54.0 55.5 56.7
  • 65 or older
53.6 49.1 42.7 37.7 33.7 31.6 31.0 30.5
Sex
  • Male
34.4 35.2 37.2 39.0 41.3 41.9 41.3 41.5
  • Female
65.5 64.8 62.8 61.0 58.7 58.1 58.7 58.5
Selected Sources of Income
  • Earnings
3.2 3.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.4
  • Social Security
51.0 49.4 45.9 42.1 39.1 37.0 36.5 36.1
  • No other income
34.8 34.5 36.4 38.7 43.6 46.2 47.3 54.4
Noncitizens NA 5.1 9.0 10.8 11.7 11.0 10.2 10.5

Eligibility Category

  • Aged
43.6 36.4 30.2 26.4 23.3 21.4 20.3 19.5
  • Blind
1.9 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2
  • Disabled
54.5 61.7 68.1 72.0 75.4 77.4 78.5 79.3
Aged
Ages 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
  • 65-69
14.0 14.9 19.4 20.7 20.5 19.1 16.6 15.6
  • 70-79
51.5 45.6 41.3 42.5 44.3 47.0 49.4 50.0
  • 80 or older
34.5 39.5 39.2 36.8 35.1 33.9 34.1 34.5
Sex
  • Male
27.3 25.5 25.1 25.6 26.8 27.6 28.2 29.0
  • Female
72.6 74.5 74.9 74.4 73.2 72.4 71.8 71.0
Noncitizens NA 9.7 19.4 25.4 30.0 29.5 27.4 28.5
Blind and Disabled
Ages 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
  • 18-64
80.2 77.7 80.0 82.0 83.4 83.8 83.9 83.8
  • 65 or older
19.8 22.3 20.0 18.0 16.6 16.2 16.1 16.2

Sex1

  • Male
39.8 40.8 42.4 43.9 41.8 41.4 41.0 44.5
  • Female
60.2 59.2 57.6 56.1 58.2 58.6 59.0 55.5
Noncitizens NA 2.4 4.6 5.6 6.2 5.9 5.8 6.1
Children
Ages 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
  • Under 5
11.7 NA NA 16.0 15.8 14.5 14.8 15.5
  • 5-9
20.9 NA NA 26.9 28.5 28.1 29.8 28.5
  • 10-14
28.8 NA NA 30.6 32.7 32.8 35.4 36.2
  • 15-17
21.7 NA NA 15.7 17.3 18.4 19.9 19.8
  • 18-212
16.8 14.3 9.3 10.8 5.7 6.2

Sex

  • Male
NA NA NA 62.0 63.0 63.4 63.3 63.8
  • Female
NA NA NA 38.0 37.0 36.6 36.7 36.2

Note: Data are for December of the year.

1For 1980-1992 male-female classification reflects all blind and disabled, both children and adults; thereafter, it is based on adults only.

2In this table, students 18-21 are classified as children prior to 1998.

Source: Social Security Administration, Social Security Bulletin · Annual Statistical Supplement · 2001 and prior years.

Table SSI 7. Total SSI Payments, Federal SSI Payments And State Supplementary Payments Calendar Year 2000 [In thousands]

State

Total  Total Federal Federal SSI State Supplementation
Federally Administered State Administered
Total $31,564,439 $30,671,725 $27,290,248 $3,381,451 $892,740
Alabama 659,218 658,648 658,648 570
Alaska 87,927 36,717 36,717 51,210
Arizona 355,324 355,074 355,074 250
Arkansas 332,628 332,628 332,628
California 6,385,553 6,385,553 4,041,417 2,344,136
Colorado 302,774 228,481 228,481 74,293
Connecticut 303,230 215,865 215,865 87,365
Delaware 50,172 50,172 49,227 945
District of Columbia 92,673 92,673 89,376 3,297
Florida 1,648,742 1,620,866 1,620,862 4 27,876
Georgia 785,363 785,363 785,363
Hawaii 103,603 103,603 90,874 12,729
Idaho 84,444 76,065 76,065 8,379
Illinois 1,202,928 1,174,336 1,174,336 28,592
Indiana 386,363 381,786 381,786 4,577
Iowa 174,581 157,905 155,214 2,691 16,676
Kansas 151,084 151,084 151,084
Kentucky 757,988 740,790 740,790 17,198
Louisiana 715,603 715,106 715,106 497
Maine 125,002 115,902 115,902 9,100
Maryland 407,041 400,089 400,086 3 6,952
Massachusetts 807,328 807,328 641,376 165,952
Michigan 1,083,155 988,272 960,707 27,565 94,883
Minnesota 348,412 271,952 271,952 76,460
Mississippi 512,112 512,112 512,111 1
Missouri 496,340 470,986 470,986 25,354
Montana 57,334 57,334 56,523 811
Nebraska 91,360 85,105 85,105 6,255
Nevada 108,413 108,413 103,556 4,857
New Hampshire 60,673 48,825 48,825 11,848
New Jersey 672,255 672,255 593,624 78,631
New Mexico 193,487 193,252 193,252 235
New York 3,197,466 3,197,466 2,647,827 549,639
North Carolina 855,219 731,568 731,568 123,651
North Dakota 32,022 29,797 29,797 2,225
Ohio 1,114,044 1,114,044 1,114,042 2
Oklahoma 339,486 302,057 302,057 37,429
Oregon 248,551 228,109 228,109 20,442
Pennsylvania 1,367,077 1,367,077 1,237,548 129,529
Rhode Island 130,379 130,379 106,976 23,403
South Carolina 442,810 428,933 428,933 13,877
South Dakota 50,516 48,363 48,358 5 2,153
Tennessee 664,461 664,461 664,459 2
Texas 1,574,945 1,574,945 1,574,945
Utah 87,074 87,074 87,023 51
Vermont 51,487 51,487 42,478 9,009
Virginia 555,450 535,180 535,180 20,270
Washington 484,655 484,345 456,107 28,238 310
West Virginia 318,198 318,198 318,198
Wisconsin 480,216 357,084 357,084 123,132
Wyoming 24,125 23,444 23,444 681
Other: N. Mariana Islands 3,174 3,174 3,174

Source: Number of persons receiving payments obtained from Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin · Annual Statistical Supplement · 2001.

Table SSI 8. SSI Recipiency Rates by State And Program Type for 1979 and 2000 [In percentages]

State

Total Recipiency Rate Rate for Adults 18-64 Rate for Adults 65 & Over
1979 2000 Percent Change
1979-00
1979 2000 Percent Change
1979-00
1979 2000 Percent Change
1979-00
Total 1.9 2.3 24 1.3 2.2 75 9.0 5.7 -37
Alabama 3.6 3.6 1 1.8 3.3 80 21.0 7.7 -63
Alaska 0.8 1.4 82 0.5 1.4 159 14.0 5.9 -58
Arizona 1.1 1.6 44 0.9 1.5 69 5.0 3.3 -34
Arkansas 3.5 3.2 -9 1.9 2.9 55 17.1 6.6 -61
California 3.0 3.2 6 2.1 2.5 22 16.4 13.2 -20
Colorado 1.1 1.2 9 0.8 1.2 56 6.7 3.3 -51
Connecticut 0.8 1.4 87 0.6 1.5 138 2.7 2.6 -4
Delaware 1.2 1.5 26 0.9 1.4 49 5.4 2.4 -56
District of Columbia 2.3 3.5 54 1.9 3.1 61 8.6 7.1 -17
Florida 1.8 2.4 35 1.1 1.9 67 6.2 4.7 -24
Georgia 2.9 2.4 -16 1.9 2.1 11 17.7 7.5 -58
Hawaii 1.1 1.7 62 0.7 1.4 103 7.6 5.5 -27
Idaho 0.8 1.4 77 0.6 1.6 150 3.8 2.1 -44
Illinois 1.1 2.0 85 1.0 2.0 111 4.3 3.8 -11
Indiana 0.8 1.4 87 0.6 1.5 146 3.3 1.8 -46
Iowa 0.9 1.4 57 0.6 1.5 142 3.5 1.8 -49
Kansas 0.9 1.3 46 0.6 1.4 122 3.5 1.9 -45
Kentucky 2.5 4.3 69 1.8 4.5 151 12.5 7.4 -41
Louisiana 3.4 3.7 10 2.0 3.5 72 20.1 8.4 -58
Maine 2.0 2.3 18 1.4 2.6 87 8.6 3.3 -62
Maryland 1.2 1.7 48 0.9 1.5 60 5.4 4.1 -24
Massachusetts 2.2 2.6 16 1.3 2.6 103 10.8 5.8 -46
Michigan 1.3 2.1 67 1.1 2.3 115 5.9 3.1 -47
Minnesota 0.8 1.3 60 0.6 1.3 136 3.7 2.6 -30
Mississippi 4.5 4.5 0 2.4 4.1 69 26.0 11.4 -56
Missouri 1.8 2.0 14 1.1 2.1 91 7.9 3.1 -61
Montana 0.9 1.5 69 0.7 1.7 136 3.8 2.1 -45
Nebraska 0.9 1.2 36 0.6 1.3 103 3.4 1.8 -47
Nevada 0.8 1.3 55 0.5 1.1 108 5.9 3.3 -44
New Hampshire 0.6 0.9 55 0.4 1.0 127 2.5 1.3 -49
New Jersey 1.1 1.7 49 0.9 1.5 74 4.7 4.5 -4
New Mexico 2.0 2.6 32 1.4 2.4 75 12.4 7.1 -43
New York 2.1 3.3 56 1.6 2.8 76 8.3 9.0 9
North Carolina 2.4 2.4 0 1.6 2.0 27 13.6 6.0 -56
North Dakota 1.0 1.3 31 0.6 1.3 128 5.1 2.4 -52
Ohio 1.1 2.1 89 1.0 2.3 132 4.2 2.5 -40
Oklahoma 2.3 2.1 -9 1.3 2.1 58 11.6 4.2 -64
Oregon 0.9 1.5 74 0.7 1.6 129 3.3 2.6 -21
Pennsylvania 1.4 2.3 64 1.1 2.4 114 5.0 3.4 -31
Rhode Island 1.6 2.6 64 1.1 2.6 141 6.4 5.0 -22
South Carolina 2.7 2.7 0 1.8 2.4 35 17.0 6.3 -63
South Dakota 1.1 1.7 49 0.7 1.7 136 5.0 3.1 -38
Tennessee 2.9 2.9 1 1.9 2.8 50 14.8 6.2 -58
Texas 1.9 2.0 6 1.0 1.5 58 12.7 7.8 -39
Utah 0.6 0.9 64 0.5 1.0 96 3.0 1.9 -37
Vermont 1.8 2.1 19 1.3 2.2 68 8.1 3.9 -52
Virginia 1.5 1.9 27 1.0 1.6 57 8.5 4.9 -42
Washington 1.2 1.7 47 1.0 1.8 84 4.8 3.6 -25
West Virginia 2.1 3.9 83 1.9 4.5 142 8.0 4.7 -41
Wisconsin 1.4 1.6 11 1.0 1.6 67 6.5 2.4 -63
Wyoming 0.4 1.2 186 0.3 1.3 348 2.7 1.6 -42

Note: Recipiency rates for 2000 are the ratios of the number of SSI recipients (in the respective age groups) as of the month of December to the population in the respective age group as of the month of April; calculations by DHHS. The 1979 rates are based on the average number of recipients during the year.

Source: Social Security Administration, Social Security Bulletin · Annual Statistical Supplement · 2001, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available online at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).

Table SSI 9. SSI Recipiency Rates by State, Selected Fiscal Years, 1975 – 2000 [In percentages]

State 1975 1980 1985 1990 1992 19942 19962 20002
Total1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.3
Alabama 4.0 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.9 3.6
Alaska 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4
Arizona 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6
Arkansas 4.1 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.2
California 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2
Colorado 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2
Connecticut 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4
Delaware 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5
District of Columbia 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.7 3.5
Florida 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.4
Georgia 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.4
Hawaii 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7
Idaho 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.4
Illinois 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.0
Indiana 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.4

Iowa

1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4
Kansas 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.3
Kentucky 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.4 4.1 4.4 4.3
Louisiana 3.9 3.2 2.9 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.2 3.7
Maine 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.3
Maryland 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7
Massachusetts 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.6
Michigan 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.1
Minnesota 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3
Mississippi 5.2 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.2 5.2 4.5
Missouri 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.0
Montana 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5
Nebraska 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2
Nevada 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3
New Hampshire 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9
New Jersey 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.7
New Mexico 2.3 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6
New York 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.3 3.3
North Carolina 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.4
North Dakota 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3
Ohio 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.1
Oklahoma 3.0 2.2 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.1
Oregon 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5
Pennsylvania 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3
Rhode Island 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.6
South Carolina 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.7
South Dakota 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7
Tennessee 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 2.9
Texas 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.0
Utah 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9
Vermont 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1
Virginia 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9
Washington 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7
West Virginia 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.5 3.8 3.9
Wisconsin 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.6
Wyoming 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2

1The number of SSI recipients used to calculate the total recipiency rate includes a certain number of recipients whose State is unknown. For 1975, 1985, and 1992, the numbers of unknown (in thousands) were 256, 14, and 71 respectively.

2For 1975-92 the percentages are calculated as the average number of monthly SSI recipients over the total population of each State in July of that year except for 2000 when the April 1 population figures are used. For 1994-2000 the number of recipients is from the month of December; calculations by DHHS.

Source: Social Security Administration, Social Security Bulletin · Annual Statistical Supplement · 2001, and Bureau of the Census, (Resident population by state available online at http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/state/).


1Earlier editions of Indicators of Welfare Dependence included students 18-21 in the count of children and so reported about 50 thousand more disabled children.

2On February 20, 1990, the Supreme Court ruled that the individual functional assessment (or a residual functional capacity assessment) that applied to adults whose condition did not meet or equal a listing of medical impairments to determine eligibility should also be applied to children whose condition did not meet or equal the medical listing of impairments. The GAO study estimated that 87,000 children were added to the SSI caseload after the individual functional assessments for children were initiated.

Appendix B: Alternative Definition of Dependence Based on Income from TANF and Food Stamps

As directed by the Welfare Indicators Act of 1994 (Pub. L. 103-432), this annual report on Indicators of Welfare Dependence focuses on dependence on three programs: the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program, now Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF); the Food Stamp Program; and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program. The summary measure of dependence proposed by the Advisory Board includes income from all three programs in its definition:

A family is dependent on welfare if more than 50 percent of its total income in a one-year period comes from AFDC, food stamps and/or SSI, and this welfare income is not associated with work activities.

This appendix examines an alternative definition of dependence that considers TANF and food stamps alone, excluding SSI. One indicator in this report, Indicator 9, measuring long-term dependence, is based on this alternative definition.

As shown in Table B-1, the rate of dependency would have been only 1.7 percent in 1999 if based on income from TANF and food stamps, as opposed to 3.3 percent when counting income from all three programs (TANF, food stamps, and SSI). In general, about half of individuals who are dependent under the standard definition also are dependent under the alternative definition that considers TANF and food stamps alone.1 There is significant variation across the age groups, however. The elderly depend more on SSI than on TANF and food stamps; whereas 2.1 percent of elderly persons are dependent when counting the three major types of means-tested assistance, very few, 0.2 percent, are dependent when the definition is limited to TANF and food stamps. In contrast, children are primarily dependent on TANF and food stamps.

Table B-1. Percentage of the Total Population with More than 50 Percent of Income from Various Means-Tested Assistance Programs, by Race and Age: 1999

  TANF, SSI, & Food Stamps TANF & Food Stamps SSI only
All Persons 3.3 1.7 1.2
Racial Categories      
Non-Hispanic White 1.8 0.8 0.8
Non-Hispanic Black 9.1 4.9 2.8
Hispanic 5.4 3.3 1.4
Age Categories      
Children Ages 0-5 6.2 4.4 1.0
Children Ages 6-10 6.1 4.2 1.0
Children Ages 11-15 4.5 2.8 0.8
Women Ages 16-64 3.5 1.7 1.3
Men Ages 16-64 1.9 0.7 1.0
Adults Age 65 and over 2.0 0.2 1.6

Note: Income is measured as total family annual income.

Source: March CPS data, analyzed using the TRIM3 microsimulation model.


1In the early- to mid-1990s, 70 to 75 percent of individuals who were dependent under the standard definition were also dependent under the alternative definition.

Appendix C: Additional Nonmarital Birth Data

Table C-1. Percentage of Births that are to Unmarried Women Within Age Groups by Race: 1940-2000

Year White Black
Under
Age 15
Age
15 - 17
Age
18 - 19
All
Teens
All
Women
Under 
Age 15
Age
15 - 17
Age
18 - 19
All 
Teens
All
Women
1940 44.4 NA NA 7.2 1.9 NA NA NA NA NA
1941 44.9 NA NA 7.0 1.9 NA NA NA NA NA
1942 40.5 NA NA 6.4 1.7 NA NA NA NA NA
1943 45.2 NA NA 6.5 1.6 NA NA NA NA NA
1944 41.3 NA NA 8.4 2.0 NA NA NA NA NA
1945 50.7 NA NA 10.0 2.4 NA NA NA NA NA
1946 52.4 NA NA 8.4 2.1 NA NA NA NA NA
1947 45.1 NA NA 6.6 1.8 NA NA NA NA NA
1948 39.9 10.3 4.6 6.3 1.8 NA NA NA NA NA
1949 40.4 10.0 4.5 6.1 1.7 NA NA NA NA NA
1950 41.9 10.2 4.8 6.4 1.7 NA NA NA NA NA
1951 34.9 9.7 4.4 5.9 1.6 NA NA NA NA NA
1952 40.4 9.6 4.4 6.0 1.6 NA NA NA NA NA
1953 43.1 9.6 4.5 6.1 1.7 NA NA NA NA NA
1954 36.8 10.2 4.9 6.5 1.8 NA NA NA NA NA
1955 42.1 10.2 4.9 6.6 1.9 NA NA NA NA NA
1956 42.6 10.2 4.8 6.5 1.9 NA NA NA NA NA
1957 41.5 10.4 4.7 6.5 2.0 NA NA NA NA NA
1958 45.3 10.8 4.9 6.8 2.1 NA NA NA NA NA
1959 46.7 11.4 5.2 7.2 2.2 NA NA NA NA NA
1960 47.5 11.7 5.4 7.4 2.3 NA NA NA NA NA
1961 49.9 12.4 6.0 7.9 2.5 NA NA NA NA NA
1962 48.3 13.4 6.1 8.2 2.8 NA NA NA NA NA
1963 50.3 15.1 7.0 9.4 3.1 NA NA NA NA NA
1964 52.3 16.0 7.6 10.4 3.4 NA NA NA NA NA
1965 57.3 17.3 9.1 11.7 4.0 NA NA NA NA NA
1966 52.5 19.5 9.9 12.6 4.4 NA NA NA NA NA
1967 61.6 21.0 11.2 14.2 4.9 NA NA NA NA NA
1968 61.0 23.4 12.7 16.1 5.3 NA NA NA NA NA
1969 57.0 24.0 12.9 16.6 5.5 91.7 72.1 48.3 60.0 34.9
1970 57.9 25.2 13.5 17.5 5.7 93.5 76.0 52.1 64.0 37.6
1971 60.5 25.2 13.2 17.4 5.6 95.0 79.6 56.0 68.1 40.5
1972 59.0 26.4 13.7 18.5 6.0 96.4 81.0 59.0 70.7 43.9
1973 65.2 27.6 14.3 19.6 6.4 96.4 82.6 60.4 72.1 45.7
1974 65.3 29.4 15.0 20.8 6.5 97.4 84.8 63.8 74.7 47.1
1975 71.0 33.0 17.2 23.5 7.3 98.4 87.4 67.6 77.8 48.8
1976 69.3 35.7 18.8 25.4 7.7 99.1 89.7 70.9 80.5 50.3
1977 72.8 38.9 21.0 27.8 8.2 98.8 90.6 74.6 82.6 51.7
1978 73.1 40.1 22.5 29.1 8.7 97.2 90.9 76.5 83.5 53.2
1979 75.0 42.4 24.3 30.8 9.4 99.4 92.9 78.9 85.7 54.7
1980 75.4 45.4 27.1 33.6 11.2 98.6 93.1 79.9 86.2 56.1
1981 76.5 48.0 28.7 35.5 11.8 98.9 93.9 81.3 87.2 56.9
1982 77.7 50.1 30.3 37.2 12.3 98.4 94.2 82.4 87.9 57.7
1983 79.9 53.1 32.7 39.8 12.9 98.5 95.1 84.4 89.4 59.2
1984 80.8 55.4 35.1 42.2 13.6 98.6 95.3 85.4 90.0 60.3
1985 82.4 58.0 38.2 45.3 14.7 98.8 95.6 86.2 90.6 61.2
1986 83.6 61.3 41.7 48.8 15.9 99.0 95.7 86.9 91.1 62.4
1987 84.6 64.6 44.4 51.8 16.9 99.1 96.1 87.6 91.7 63.4
1988 86.5 66.2 47.3 54.1 18.0 98.9 96.4 88.5 92.3 64.7
1989 84.7 67.2 49.5 55.7 19.2 98.4 96.1 89.0 92.3 59.2
1990 83.6 67.9 50.8 56.8 20.4 98.5 95.6 89.4 92.2 59.8
1991 75.5 69.7 53.2 59.0 21.8 98.1 95.7 89.8 92.5 60.3
1992 76.2 70.6 54.9 60.6 22.6 97.6 95.6 90.4 92.8 68.1
1993 83.2 71.7 57.2 62.7 23.6 98.1 95.7 90.8 93.1 68.7
1994 90.4 77.5 61.9 68.0 25.4 99.1 97.8 93.4 95.5 70.4
1995 88.8 77.4 62.1 68.0 25.3 99.1 97.7 93.2 95.3 69.9
1996 90.1 78.8 63.3 69.2 25.7 99.1 97.9 93.6 95.6 69.8
1997 92.2 81.6 65.3 71.4 25.8 99.4 98.3 93.8 95.8 69.2
1998 94.0 82.7 66.5 72.4 26.3 99.6 98.3 93.9 95.7 69.1
1999 93.9 83.2 67.3 72.9 26.7 99.5 98.3 93.7 95.6 68.8
2000 94.0 83.4 67.8 73.1 27.1 99.4 98.2 94.0 95.7 68.5

Notes: Births to unmarried women in the United States for 1940 – 1979 are estimated from data for registration areas in which marital status of the mother was reported; see sources below. Beginning in 1980, births to unmarried women in the United States are based on data from states reporting marital status directly and data from non-reporting states for which marital status was inferred from other information on the birth certificate; see sources below. Data for 1998 are preliminary.

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, “Nonmarital Childbearing in the United States, 1940 - 1999,” National Vital Health Statistics Reports, Vol. 48 (16), 2000; “Births: Final Data for 2000,” National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 50 (5), February 2002.

Files
Product Type
Report to Congress
Populations
Children