ESTIMATED ODDS RATIOS OF MEDICAID EXPENDITURES AND THE PROBABILITY

OF ADULTS MAINTAINING MEDICAID COVERAGE WHEN LEAVING AFDC,

COMPARED TO THE PROBABILITY OF LEAVING MEDICAID

(Adults in HMOs Excluded)

Alabama

Florida

Michigan

New Jersey

Enrolled in Medicaid Three Months After AFDC ^a

Average Monthly Expenditures^b

First quintile

2.02***

2.20***

1.95***

3.47***

Second quintile

2.21***

2.92***

1.99***

3.50***

Third quintile

2.57***

3.64***

2.02***

3.36***

Fourth quintile

2.81***

4.05***

2.19***

3.21***

Fifth quintile

2.63***

3.45**

1.56***

2.40***

SOURCE: 1995 State Medicaid Research File data, adults leaving welfare from July through October, 1995.

^aCompared to leaving AFDC and Medicaid.

^bCompared to no expenditures.

*Significantly different from zero at the .10 level, two-tailed test.

**Significantly different from zero at the .05 level, two-tailed test.

***Significantly different from zero at the .01 level, two-tailed test.