APPENDIX TABLE 2

LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF THE PROBABILITY

OF MAINTAINING MEDICAID COVERAGE

WHEN CHILDREN LEAVE AFDC

(Children in HMOs Excluded)

Characteristic

Alabama

Florida

Michigan

New Jersey

Estimated Odds Ratio a

Female

1.02

0.95*

1.03

0.96

Race/Ethnicity:b

Black

2.54***

1.96***

0.98

0.91

Hispanic

1.16

0.80***

0.75***

0.68***

Ages as of 12/31/1995:c

6 through 14

0.94

0.91***

1.14***

1.09**

15 through 20

0.26***

0.55***

0.52***

1.03

Average Monthly Expenditures:d

First Quintile

4.26***

3.21***

3.03***

3.76***

Second Quintile

5.15***

3.83***

3.44***

3.67***

Third Quintile

4.94***

4.49***

3.68***

4.14***

Fourth Quintile

6.84***

4.91***

3.67***

4.37***

Fifth Quintile

9.16***

5.53***

4.22***

4.67***

Black

Average Monthly Expenditures:d

First Quintile

0.78

0.95

0.82**

0.93

Second Quintile

0.64***

1.00

0.86

1.16

Third Quintile

0.79

0.76***

0.84*

1.05

Fourth Quintile

0.64***

0.72***

0.82*

1.06

Fifth Quintile

0.61***

0.77***

0.82*

1.02

Number of Observations

14,613

23,382

31,937

16,956

SOURCE:  1995 State Medicaid Research File, Summary Person File.

aThe estimated odds ratio is the estimate of the relationship between the characteristic and p/(1-p) where

p is the probability that the person is enrolled in Medicaid three months after leaving AFDC

and (1-p) is the probability a person is disenrolled from Medicaid three months after leaving AFDC.

bCompared to whites.

cCompared to children under six years of age.

dCompared to no expenditures.

*Significantly different from zero at the .10 level, two-tailed test.

**Significantly different from zero at the .05 level, two-tailed test.

***Significantly different from zero at the .01 level, two-tailed test.