APPENDIX TABLE 1

LOGISTIC REGRESSION OF THE PROBABILITY

OF MAINTAINING MEDICAID COVERAGE

WHEN ADULTS LEAVE AFDC

(Adults in HMOs Excluded)

Characteristic

Alabama

Florida

Michigan

New Jersey

Estimated Odds Ratio a

Female

1.68***

1.04

0.88***

1.26***

Race/Ethnicity:b

Black

1.10

1.82***

0.50***

0.62***

Hispanic

1.62

0.80***

0.71***

0.67***

Ages as of 12/31/95:c

15 through 20

1.25***

0.80***

0.96

1.18*

21 through 24

1.57***

0.82***

1.02

1.39***

25 through 30

1.34***

0.77***

1.06

1.23***

31 through 34

1.37***

0.95

1.17***

1.19***

Average Monthly Expenditures:d

First Quintile

2.02***

2.20***

1.95***

3.47***

Second Quintile

2.21***

2.92***

1.99***

3.50***

Third Quintile

2.57***

3.64***

2.02***

3.36***

Fourth Quintile

2.81***

4.05***

2.19***

3.21***

Fifth Quintile

2.63***

3.45**

1.56***

2.40***

Black

Average Monthly Expenditures:d

First Quintile

1.41

0.93

1.54***

0.93

Second Quintile

1.28

0.92

1.67***

1.16

Third Quintile

1.38

0.75*

1.51***

1.05

Fourth Quintile

1.52*

0.93

1.54***

1.06

Fifth Quintile

1.29

0.64***

1.57***

1.02

Number of Observations

6,957

12,626

20,973

9,279

SOURCE:  1995 State Medicaid Research File, Summary Person File.

aThe estimated odds ratio is the estimate of the relationship between the characteristic and p/(1-p) where

p is the probability that the person is enrolled in Medicaid three months after leaving AFDC,

and (1-p) is the probability a person is disenrolled from Medicaid three months after leaving AFDC.

bCompared to whites.

cCompared to adults aged 35 through 64.

dCompared to no expenditures.

*Significantly different from zero at the .10 level, two-tailed test.

**Significantly different from zero at the .05 level, two-tailed test.

***Significantly different from zero at the .01 level, two-tailed test.